Dollar set for biggest weekly drop since April after jobs data lowers Fed hik...
Saturday, July 4,2026,00:11

The US dollar is experiencing its biggest weekly loss in 12 weeks, driven by weaker-than-expected US jobs data that has dampened expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. This has provided a significant boost to the Japanese yen, which has recovered from historic lows, though market participants remain wary of potential intervention. Other major currencies like the euro and pound have also seen gains against the dollar. .. read more..

Fundies Cheat Sheet Recap: Jun 29–Jul 3, 2026
Friday, July 3,2026,20:00

This time the calendar was right: a payrolls miss and a dovish Warsh sank the dollar. Scenario C was operative, and all five asset directions came in. .. read more..

Finance & Forex Weekly Recap: June 29 – July 3, 2026
Friday, July 3,2026,15:00

A soft June jobs report a day early gutted rate-hike bets and sank the dollar, while gold ripped toward $4,200 and the S&P wrapped a strong quarter. .. read more..

EUR/USD – Smart Money Analysis: Independence Day Brought No Significant Devel...
Friday, July 3,2026,12:15

The EUR/USD pair remains within a local bearish impulse, but the bulls have gained some opportunities over the past week. This week, the international economic forum in Portugal featured speeches by Christine Lagarde and Kevin Warsh. In my view, Christine Lagarde adopted a more dovish and cautious tone on monetary policy, while Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the need for higher interest rates but did not clarify whether the Federal Reserve intends to reduce inflation through tighter monetary policy or expects inflation to ease naturally as energy prices decline. Since the market received no clear answer, it will have to focus on upcoming inflation data. However, yesterday demonstrated that inflat... .. read more..

GBP/USD – Smart Money Analysis: Bulls Face a Critical Week Ahead
Friday, July 3,2026,12:15

The GBP/USD pair has reversed in favor of the pound and begun a fairly strong rally that could mark the start of a broader bullish trend. In my view, the latest appreciation of the US dollar was not fully justified by the news flow over the past few weeks. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has ended, yet it was the primary driver behind the dollar's strength in 2026. Therefore, it seems unusual to see the dollar rise first because of the war and then continue rising after the conflict ended. The FOMC meeting and the Fed's hawkish stance certainly provided grounds for dollar buying, but the rally lasted for nearly two weeks. The FOMC has not yet begun tightening monetary policy,... .. read more..

Forex forecast 03/07/2026: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, OIL, BTC
Friday, July 3,2026,11:30

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week. Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to inc... .. read more..

Dollar stumbles over its own shadow
Friday, July 3,2026,09:47

You can't go it alone. Kevin Warsh learned that from experience: the Federal Reserve chair may want rate cuts, but the Board of Governors doesn't have to follow him. "He has a board of governors that may be a bit hostile," admitted Donald Trump, usually generous with praise for his protege. The president's remarks coincided with a new split among currency strategists: some say the US dollar is overbought; others see it as the main asset of the second half of the year. Credit Agricole, Morgan Stanley, TD Securities, and Eurizon SLJ Capital stand apart from the consensus. In their view, speculators have squeezed everything they could out of the greenback's rally: long positions in the green... .. read more..

How Proper Position Sizing Can Save Your Forex Account
Friday, July 3,2026,08:02

Without knowing how to size positions properly, you may end up taking trades that are far too large for you. Here are some adjustments to consider. .. read more..

Options Brief - Soft jobs, hard bounce - 3 July 2026
Friday, July 3,2026,08:00

June payrolls missed badly, pushing the market's priced Fed hike out to December, while Korea's chipmakers rebounded sharply from Thursday's AI-valuation rout. With US cash markets closed for the July 4 holiday, the brief explains what Thursday's close and Friday's overnight reaction already tell options traders ahead of Monday's reopen. VIX 16.15  |  TERM: CONTANGO  |  SKEW: ELEVATED (150.02)  |  VIX FUTURES: 17.80 |  MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL  Soft payrolls reshaped the rate path: June nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 against a 113,000 forecast, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000, pushing the market's priced Fed hike out to Decem... .. read more..

XAU/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26
Friday, July 3,2026,07:50

Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 3,927.70 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 3,927.70. Stop Loss: below 3,860.00, Take Profit: 4,900.00–5,610.00. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 3,927.70 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 3,290.55–2,945.80. A sell signal: the level of 3,927.70 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 3,995.00, Take Profit: 3,290.55–2,945.80. Main Scenario Consider long positions from corrections above 3,927.70 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00. Alternative Scenario Breakout and consolidation below 3,927.70 will allow the asset to continue d... .. read more..

WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26
Friday, July 3,2026,07:20

Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 67.00 with a target of 91.80–105.17. A buy signal: the price holds above 67.00. Stop Loss: below 65.50, Take Profit: 91.80–105.17. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 67.00 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 62.00–58.50. A sell signal: the level of 67.00 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 68.50, Take Profit: 62.00–58.50. Main Scenario Consider long positions from corrections above 67.00 with a target of 91.80–105.17. Alternative Scenario Breakout and consolidation below 67.00 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels... Read full author’s opinio... .. read more..

Commodities steady as lower inflation risks and softer jobs data calm markets
Friday, July 3,2026,07:15

Key points: Commodities stabilised after a six-week, 12.4% decline, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index trading broadly flat in a US holiday-shortened week as easing inflation concerns and weaker US jobs data reduced immediate pressure from further rate hikes. Crude oil returned to pre-war levels as Middle Eastern supply recovered faster than expected, with Brent finding support ahead of USD 70. However, weak Chinese import demand and prompt contango point to lingering near-term surplus pressure. Precious metals showed tentative signs of bottoming, supported by lower inflation expectations, a weaker dollar and softer short-dated yields, although gold still faces significant technical resis... .. read more..

Gold Regains Its Footing. Forecast as of 03.07.2026
Friday, July 3,2026,07:09

Rising expectations of further Fed monetary tightening, elevated Treasury yields, and a stronger US dollar had kept gold under pressure. However, the events in Sintra and the US employment report changed everything. Let's discuss this topic and make a trading plan for XAU/USD. Major Takeaways Gold has regained its footing thanks to the Fed. A weaker US dollar is supportive for XAU/USD. Central bank demand will continue to support the precious metal. A sustained move above $4,170 will provide a buying opportunity. Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Gold Kevin Warsh's speech in Sintra, Portugal, and disappointing US employment data allowed gold... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog ... .. read more..

USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 3 (US session)
Friday, July 3,2026,07:03

Trade analysis and trading advice for the Japanese yen The 160.72 price test occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 160.72 triggered Scenario No. 2 for buying the dollar, resulting in a 30-point rise in the pair. US markets are taking a break today: the country is celebrating Independence Day, meaning stock exchanges and most trading platforms are closed. For the currency market, the absence of the US session is a clear factor: without the main pool of participants, liquidity thins out and price fluctuations become smaller in scale. Under such conditions, the second h... .. read more..

GBP/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 3 (US session)
Friday, July 3,2026,07:03

Trade analysis and trading advice for the British pound The 1.3361 price test occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the pound. However, no major decline in the pair followed. Due to the national holiday — Independence Day — the US trading session is effectively absent: exchanges and most markets are closed. Such days are almost always accompanied by lower volumes, and the currency market is no exception: the fewer active participants there are, the calmer price movements become. Therefore, in the second half of the day, it is reasonable to expect only subdued, uneventful dynamics in t... .. read more..

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on July 3 (U.S. Session)
Friday, July 3,2026,07:03

Trade analysis and trading recommendations for the euro Due to low volatility, price did not reach the levels I identified during the first half of the day. It is clear that the U.S. holiday calendar is affecting trading dynamics: due to Independence Day, U.S. markets are closed and stock exchanges are not operating. For the foreign exchange market, this results in a predictable pattern — the absence of major participants reduces liquidity and significantly dampens volatility. As a result, in the second half of the day, the dollar and the euro are likely to trade within a narrow range without a clear directional bias. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely mainly on scen... .. read more..

Record withdrawals from exchanges coincide with crypto market crash
Friday, July 3,2026,06:53

Data from CryptoQuant show, at first glance, different metrics but the same picture: anomalous exchange outflows into cold storage were recorded at the moment of greatest price weakness. Now, when Ethereum's price plunged to $1,500 — a multi?month low — and then recovered slightly, the number of withdrawal transactions from major exchanges surged to 166,000, a record for this indicator. In other words, precisely when Ethereum looked most beaten down, users were withdrawing coins from exchanges at rates the chart has never shown before. Historically, this behavior is interpreted as accumulation: investors prefer to hold Ethereum in their own wallets rather than on exchange accounts ready f... .. read more..

USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26
Friday, July 3,2026,06:50

Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 159.83 with a target of 165.00–170.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 159.83. Stop Loss: below 159.30, Take Profit: 165.00–170.00. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 159.83 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00. A sell signal: the level of 159.83 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 160.35, Take Profit: 158.90–158.00. Main Scenario Consider long positions from corrections above 159.83 with a target of 165.00–170.00. Alternative Scenario Breakout and consolidation below 159.83 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels... Read full a... .. read more..

With special guest Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital
Friday, July 3,2026,06:45

A conversation with a great investor and thinker. Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app. Links IBM IBM CEO interview we referenced on the podcast on the future of the AI rollout . There is also this newer one - probably a lot of overlap. The Gesda capital website John's latest FX Trader piece , including the impact of the US jobs data. Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxoba... .. read more..

Rupee falls on-week as merchant, NDF-linked flows blunt dollar retreat
Friday, July 3,2026,06:32

The rupee fell nearly 1% this week, closing at 95.21 per dollar, slipping below the 95 mark for the first time in three weeks .. read more..

Rupee closes at 95.21 vs USD, falls on-week as merchant, NDF-linked flows blu...
Friday, July 3,2026,06:30

The Indian rupee experienced a slight uptick on Friday, yet ended the week on a weaker footing due to overwhelming dollar demand driven by various market activities. Despite a rise in positive sentiment linked to a projected balance of payments surplus and new foreign inflows, pressures from maturing non-deliverable forward positions and large-scale merchant payments hampered its progress. .. read more..

GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26
Friday, July 3,2026,06:20

Major Takeaways Main scenario: Once the correction is completed, consider short positions below the level of 1.3467 with a target of 1.3050–1.2936. A sell signal: the correction ends and the price holds below 1.3467. Stop Loss: above 1.3510, Take Profit: 1.3050–1.2936. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3467 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3660–1.3870. A buy signal: the level of 1.3467 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 1.3425, Take Profit: 1.3660–1.3870. Main Scenario Consider short positions below 1.3467 with a target of 1.3050–1.2936 once the correction is completed. Alternative... Read full author’s opinion and review... .. read more..

GBP/USD – July 3: The Pound Continues to Recover Amid Favorable Conditions
Friday, July 3,2026,06:18

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3298 and rose to the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3382. This was followed by a pullback from 1.3382 and another reaction from 1.3335. As of Friday morning, the upward movement continues toward 1.3382. A new rejection from this level would again favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward 1.3335 and 1.3298. A consolidation of the British pound above 1.3382 would increase the probability of continued growth toward the resistance level at 1.3454–1.3457. The wave structure has shifted to a bullish outlook within just the last few hours. The most recent completed downward wave broke the previous low,... .. read more..

Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – July 3
Friday, July 3,2026,06:18

Today, euro trading was executed using a Mean Reversion strategy. I traded yen using the Momentum strategy. Today is Independence Day in the United States, so U.S. stock exchanges and a significant number of financial markets are closed. The absence of a key market participant traditionally leads to a noticeable decline in trading activity: liquidity in the forex market decreases, and volatility amplitude also contracts. Against this backdrop, the second half of the day is likely to remain subdued, and no strong dollar-driven movements or meaningful impulses should be expected. For the euro, this means that EUR/USD is likely to remain in a narrow range: without U.S. liquidity flow, the si... .. read more..

Eurozone Private Sector Stabilizes In June
Friday, July 3,2026,06:17

The euro area private sector stabilized in June after two months of moderate decline, final purchasing managers' survey results published by S&P Global showed Friday. The composite output index registered 50.0 in June compared to 48.5 in May. The flash score was 49.5. The stabilization reflects growth in manufacturing being offset by a further fall in services. .. read more..

EUR/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26
Friday, July 3,2026,05:50

Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.1473 with a target of 1.1124–1.0892. A sell signal: the price holds below 1.1473. Stop Loss: above 1.1515, Take Profit: 1.1124–1.0892. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.1473 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.1790–1.2088. A buy signal: the level of 1.1473 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 1.1430, Take Profit: 1.1790–1.2088. Main Scenario Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.1473 with a target of 1.1124–1.0892. Alternative Scenario Breakout and consolidation above 1.1473 will... Read full author’s opinion ... .. read more..

Market changes crew as weak jobs report sparks rotation from tech to defensives
Friday, July 3,2026,05:29

The weak June jobs report became the catalyst for what Wall Street calls rotation trading: money moved out of AI giants into health care, consumer staples, and other sectors that were overlooked during the chip rally. In June, the US economy added just 57,000 jobs, nearly half the experts' forecast of 115,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average responded by updating its record high, while the Nasdaq Composite fell. The S&P 500 found itself caught between opposing forces: eight of 11 sectors closed higher, yet the broad index barely moved. Stock Market Dynamics Investors are betting on the ideal scenario: inflation cools, the labor market stabilizes, and the Fed refrains from hiking. Acc... .. read more..

Stock market on July 3: S&P 500 and Nasdaq close mixed
Friday, July 3,2026,05:28

US equity indices finished the day in different directions. The S&P 500 fell 0.01%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.80%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.14%. Global markets recovered today after the technology sell-off, driven by a paradox: a weak US employment report eased expectations for an imminent Fed rate hike and bolstered risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 1.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.8%, and gold continued its rally. South Korea's KOSPI was a standout, jumping about 5% after a volatile start. Many analysts note that technology fundamentals remain strong and that the market still underestimates the potential of memory chip makers and AI equipment suppliers... .. read more..

GBP/USD Review on July 3: Bank of England Maintains a Wait-and-See Approach
Friday, July 3,2026,05:28

The GBP/USD currency pair showed a nearly explosive rise in the first half of Thursday's session and has now been rising for six consecutive days. What is behind this sharp change in market sentiment? In our view, the answer is straightforward. First, the latest phase of GBP/USD decline and U.S. dollar strength was neither logical nor justified. Therefore, any current strengthening of the British pound is, by default, logical. Second, traders have begun to doubt that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy more than once as a "preventive" move in 2026. Many major banks believe that already next year the regulator will resume a cycle of monetary easing, while inflation will declin... .. read more..

EUR/USD Review on July 3: Euro Weakness Against the Dollar
Friday, July 3,2026,05:28

The EUR/USD currency pair once again attempted to resume its upward movement on Thursday, and only the Nonfarm Payrolls report made that possible. The euro spent most of the current week moving sideways, and yesterday's session did not significantly change the overall technical picture. Let us briefly recall the current setup. From our point of view, the latest phase of dollar weakness and, consequently, euro strength was illogical, unfounded, and unjustified. The market largely ignored the ECB's rate hike in June, the end of the Middle East conflict, falling oil prices, and other factors. Almost the entire macroeconomic backdrop of recent months has been disregarded. The only exception h... .. read more..

What to Focus on July 3? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners
Friday, July 3,2026,05:28

Breakdown of macroeconomic reports: No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday. Today is Independence Day in the United States, which is why the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate were released yesterday instead of today. As a result, U.S. banks and stock exchanges will be closed today, and no important events are expected during the European session either. Therefore, traders will have no significant data to react to during the day. Breakdown of fundamental events: Among Friday's fundamental events, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde can be noted. However, speeches by Christine Lagarde, Kevin Warsh, and Andrew Bailey have already taken place this week,... .. read more..

Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations on July 3
Friday, July 3,2026,05:27

Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to advance yesterday following weak U.S. labor market data, which sustained demand for risk-sensitive assets and pushed expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy further into the future. Bitcoin briefly broke above the $62,000 level for the first time in July after data showed that the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs, well below the consensus forecast of 110,000–114,000, while May's figure was revised downward from 172,000 to 129,000. However, the situation is not as straightforward as it may seem. The weak employment data immediately affected expectations for the Fed's interest rate path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probabilit... .. read more..

USD/CHF: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26
Friday, July 3,2026,05:20

Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 0.8008 with a target of 0.8220–0.8400. A buy signal: the price holds above 0.8008. Stop Loss: below 0.7965, Take Profit: 0.8220–0.8400. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 0.8008 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 0.7900–0.7755. A sell signal: the level of 0.8008 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 0.8050, Take Profit: 0.7900–0.7755. Main Scenario Consider long positions from corrections above 0.8008 with a target of 0.8220–0.8400. Alternative Scenario Breakout and consolidation below 0.8008 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels... Read full a... .. read more..

Gold jumps after Fed's rate hike fears ease
Friday, July 3,2026,05:07

Gold surged after disappointing US nonfarm payrolls, which weakened fears of a Fed rate hike this year. The metal spiked intraday by 2.8% and extended a two-day recovery from a nearly seven-month low. By the New York close, spot gold was up 2.1% at $4,113 an ounce. The rally is monetary in nature: a sharp slowdown in hiring fundamentally changes market expectations about the rate path, to which the metal is most sensitive. The reversal is straightforward and follows gold's usual logic. A weak labor market reduces pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to raise interest rates at the July meeting. June nonfarm payrolls missed almost all forecasts, sharply weakening the hawkish scenario. Since hi... .. read more..

USD/CAD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26
Friday, July 3,2026,04:49

Major Takeaways Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 1.4131 with a target of 1.4536–1.4788. A buy signal: the price holds above 1.4131. Stop Loss: below 1.4085, Take Profit: 1.4536–1.4788. Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 1.4131 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 1.4006–1.3950. A sell signal: the level of 1.4131 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 1.4175, Take Profit: 1.4006–1.3950. Main Scenario Consider long positions from corrections above 1.4131 with a target of 1.4536–1.4788. Alternative Scenario Breakout and consolidation below 1.4131 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels... Read full a... .. read more..

EUR/USD – Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis on July 3. Dollar Weaken...
Friday, July 3,2026,04:12

EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair posted fairly strong growth on Thursday, which, however, ended very quickly, once again confirming the corrective nature of the movement and the market's lack of strong willingness to sell the dollar. An important Nonfarm Payrolls report was released in the United States yesterday, which triggered the dollar's decline. It turned out that the number of new jobs in the nonfarm sector in June amounted to only 57,000, roughly half of the forecast. Moreover, the May and April figures were also revised downward by fairly substantial amounts. Thus, the U.S. labor market is once again raising concerns, and the dollar fell sharply across the market. Ho... .. read more..

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on July 3
Friday, July 3,2026,04:12

Yesterday, the U.S. dollar continued to decline against the euro, the pound, and other risk-sensitive assets after June's U.S. economic data delivered an unexpected surprise, triggering a wave of volatility across global financial markets. News of a sharp slowdown in hiring, despite a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, became the catalyst for a rapid sell-off in the U.S. dollar. Traders, who had become accustomed to the dollar's strength, interpreted this information as a signal to reassess their strategies, which was immediately reflected in the currency's exchange rate. At the same time, the euro and other risk-sensitive assets posted strong gains. This shift in currency market d... .. read more..

EUR/USD – July 3: US Labor Market Data Signals Weakness
Friday, July 3,2026,04:08

The EUR/USD pair confirmed a breakout above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1409 on Thursday, allowing traders to expect a continuation of the upward move toward the next Fibonacci level at 1.1514 (76.4%). A renewed consolidation below 1.1409 would favor the U.S. dollar, but at the moment I would not base trading decisions on this level. Too many false signals have formed around it recently. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave has yet to exceed the previous high. The geopolitical situation has improved significantly in recent weeks, as hostilities in the Middle Eas... .. read more..

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 3. Review of yester...
Friday, July 3,2026,04:08

Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The test of the 162.64 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 162.31. Yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell sharply against the yen after traders interpreted reports that Japanese officials may abandon the practice of providing advance notice of any planned currency interventions as a direct signal that market intervention could take place in the near future. In addition, the pair came under pressure from weak U.S. labor market data, which was significantly worse than economists had... .. read more..

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 3. Review of yester...
Friday, July 3,2026,04:08

Trade review and tips for trading the British pound The test of the 1.3358 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair gained only 20 points. June's U.S. economic reports caused significant volatility in the foreign exchange market. News of a substantial slowdown in hiring, despite the notable decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, came as an unexpected and concerning signal. Against the backdrop of a weaker U.S. dollar, the British pound has continued to strengthen with confidence. The latest U.S. labor market data could have long-term implications for both the U.S. e... .. read more..

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 3. Review of yester...
Friday, July 3,2026,04:08

Trade review and tips for trading the euro The test of the 1.1419 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair advanced to the target level of 1.1465. News that U.S. hiring slowed sharply in June triggered a steep decline in the dollar and strengthened the euro. This development sparked intense discussion among economists and analysts, as such dynamics run counter to the conventional relationship between employment and economic growth. A slowdown in job creation, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, may indicate either that effective labor demand has been exhau... .. read more..

Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 03.07.2026
Friday, July 3,2026,03:48

Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for the USCrude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders. Oil prices are trading today in a correction in the short-term downtrend. Major Takeaways USCrude: Oil prices are rising in a correction. XAUUSD: Gold's short-term trend has turned bullish. EURUSD: The euro has tested the resistance B of 1.1482–1.1468. Oil Price Forecast for Today: USCrude Analysis Oil prices are trading in a correction within the short-term downtrend. If the correction continues, crude... Read full author’s opinion and review in bl... .. read more..

Short-Term Analysis for BTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD for 03.07.2026
Friday, July 3,2026,03:35

Dear readers, I've prepared a short-term forecast for Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum based on Elliott Wave analysis. Following the recent price increase, attention shifts to the alternative scenarios. Major Takeaways BTCUSD: The price may rise in the first part of a potential impulse. Consider long positions with a Take Profit at 65,618.89. XRPUSD: A rise in the initial part of a bullish impulse is projected. Consider long positions with a Take Profit at 1.289. ETHUSD: The price may rise in a bullish correction. Consider long positions with a Take Profit at 1,954.77. Elliott Wave Analysis for Bitcoin The current Bitcoin chart... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance .. read more..

Oil (USCrude) Price Forecast for Today, Tomorrow, Next Week, and Next 30 Days
Friday, July 3,2026,03:24

Forecasting the USCrude price requires taking into account fundamental, geopolitical, and technical factors. The dynamics of crude oil not only shape the global economic environment but also depend heavily on exporting countries' decisions, macroeconomic indicators, and unexpected events. In this review, we will examine the outlook for oil prices over the upcoming trading sessions, assess prospects for the week ahead, and outline key benchmarks for the coming month. The forecast takes into account the current supply-demand balance, speculative positioning, and the latest geopolitical developments. Expert Technical Analysis for USCrude for Today The 4-hour chart shows the following signals... .. read more..

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast for Today, Tomorrow, Next Week, and the Next 30...
Friday, July 3,2026,03:16

Gold (XAU/USD) is generally regarded as a safe-haven asset. The price of gold is influenced by geopolitical events, inflation rates, and shifts in interest rates. In the face of global economic uncertainty, the precious metal remains the primary defensive asset in investment portfolios. This article examines the factors driving the future of gold quotes and presents a forecast for the day, week, and month ahead. The price analysis encompasses macroeconomic data, political events, and technical analysis to facilitate the most accurate trading forecast for the XAUUSD. Expert Technical Analysis for XAU/USD for Today The 4-hour chart shows the following signals:... Read full author’s opinion ... .. read more..

The FX Trader: Weak US jobs report enough to sustain USD bears?
Friday, July 3,2026,02:48

But is it enough to reverse the strong USD trend? The June US jobs report was very “meh” – could kick that FOMC hike over the horizon if it ever happens this year. Every month I complain about the quality of the US labor market data and will continue to do so, but we know the market reacts to it just as it did yesterday. I certainly hope that new Fed Chair Warsh’s task forces help the US come up with some better month-to-month if not real time measures of the status of the US labor market. That said, yesterday’s June report was pretty soft. The June nonfarm payrolls growth was a miss, and the revisions of the prior two months payrolls (far more likely to be m... .. read more..

US Dollar Slumps as Jobs Data Dims Fed Hike Odds. Forecast as of 03.07.2026
Friday, July 3,2026,02:21

While Donald Trump previously criticized Jerome Powell for being reluctant to cut interest rates, he has now shifted the focus to the Federal Reserve as a whole. The argument is that Kevin Warsh would face a committee resistant to policy easing. Let's examine the implications for monetary policy and develop a trading plan for the EUR/USD pair. Major Takeaways The US labor market data disappointed. The Fed can shift its focus to inflation. The US administration is criticizing the central bank. Long positions on the EUR/USD pair can be considered with targets of 1.154 and 1.162. Weekly Fundamental Forecast for... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance .. read more..

Market Quick Take - Soft jobs reshape expectations - 3 July 2026
Friday, July 3,2026,02:18

Market drivers and catalysts Equities : US breadth improved despite a chip selloff, Europe rallied on healthcare and financials, Asia split as Korea plunged. Volatility: VIX eased despite a tech-specific vol spike, markets shut for the holiday Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ether held steady despite the tech selloff, miners diverged sharply lower Commodities : Gold rises as weak jobs report and lower energy prices reduce rate hike odds Fixed Income : US short-dated treasuries rally on soft US jobs report. Currencies : US dollar sold off after soft June jobs report. Macro : US Market closed Macro The US labour market softened in June: Payrolls rose just 57K, below the 113K forecast, while Apr... .. read more..

FX option expiries for 3 July 10am New York cut
Friday, July 3,2026,01:49

There are a few large expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. However, they do sit quite a distance away from the current spot price. As such, the expiries highlighted may not feature much into play but is worth noting just in case. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The currency pair traded up to fresh highs since last Monday after the softer US jobs report yesterday. And the upside bounce is sticking with a push to around 1.1450 today. The near-term bias has shifted to favour buyers again, so that opens up some room to work with in ending the week. On any further upside price extensions, the expiries at the 1.1500 mark may play a part in limitin... .. read more..

Soft June Jobs Report Knocks the Dollar and Cools Fed Hike Bets
Friday, July 3,2026,01:49

June’s soft jobs report hit the dollar and cooled Fed hike bets, even as unemployment fell for the wrong reason. .. read more..