EURUSD Forecast & Predictions for 2025, 2026–2027, and Beyond
Monday, October 6,2025,04:06
The EURUSD currency pair is widely considered one of the most popular and traded pairs in the global currency market. Its rate reflects shifts in economic conditions across the US and the eurozone. The pair's fluctuations are sensitive to the Fed and the ECB, the inflation rate, and global events. This article delves into EURUSD forecasts for 2025 and beyond, assessing market sentiment and considering technical and fundamental factors. Read this material to get a definitive answer to the main question: Is it worth investing in this currency pair now? Major Takeaways The current price of the EURUSD pair is... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance .. read more..
Gold Price Forecast & Predictions for 2025, 2026, 2027-2030 and Beyond
Monday, October 6,2025,04:05
Gold is popular among investors and often serves as a "safe haven", a financial asset that helps preserve capital during economic instability. Forecasting the price of this instrument requires a comprehensive analysis of economic, political, and financial factors, as well as market trends and macroeconomic conditions. In this article, we will examine the price history of XAU/USD and insights from professional analysts to develop scenarios for gold prices in 2025, 2026, 2027, and beyond. Major Takeaways The current gold price as of 06.10.2025 is $3 948.50. The maximum price was reached on 06.10.2025 at $3945.03. The all-time low was hit on... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog o... .. read more..
Crude Oil Price Forecast for 2025, 2026, 2027–2030 and Beyond: WTI and Brent ...
Monday, October 6,2025,04:04
This article provides a comprehensive overview of the USCRUDE trading instrument, addressing crucial components such as the current state of the oil market, influential factors affecting oil price shifts, and future forecasts. The outlook for oil prices employs a multifaceted approach, encompassing fundamental and technical analysis to provide a nuanced and informed market assessment. In addition, the article offers a detailed long-term trading strategy, empowering investors to accurately identify optimal entry and exit points, thereby minimizing risk while maximizing returns. Furthermore, the article draws upon the insights of industry experts and examines prevailing sentiments on social... .. read more..
Stock market on October 6: S&P 500 and NASDAQ slightly correct
Monday, October 6,2025,03:24
Last Friday, US stock indices ended mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.01%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.28%. The industrial Dow Jones jumped by 0.51%. On Friday, the tech rally slowed, pulling back from record highs. Optimism around artificial intelligence was dented by warnings from US President Donald Trump directed at Hamas and signs of economic weakness amid the ongoing US government shutdown. The yield on 10-year bonds, which sets the range for borrowing costs in the US, dropped by more than five basis points. Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. were among the leading decliners, falling by 7.5% after reports of significant problems in the communication system. Despite weakening at ... .. read more..
Cryptocurrency Market Trading Recommendations for October 6
Monday, October 6,2025,03:17
Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, hitting $125,710 over the weekend. Ethereum also rose, though not as significantly. This explosive growth marks the culmination of several weeks of steady accumulation by big players in support of the broader uptrend. A key driver behind the rally is growing global awareness of the instability of fiat currencies, with investors turning to BTC as digital insurance against fiat devaluation. Bitcoin's new high reflects a broader awakening and increasing trust in a new monetary system. This isn't just hype around another tech breakthrough, but rather a fundamental revaluation of financial principles. As the pioneer of decentralized currencies, Bitcoin ... .. read more..
Gold stretches into yet another all-time high amid lack of bearish catalysts
Monday, October 6,2025,03:00
Fundamental Overview Gold extended the rally into yet another all-time high today as the lack of bearish catalysts keeps the bullish momentum going. The market is just moving by inertia, and given the US government shutdown, there’s not much stopping this train. Even the US CPI report could be delayed if the shutdown stretches into next week. In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. In the short-term though, a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations caused by strong US labour market data will likely trigger a correction. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe On the daily chart,... .. read more..
The Market Sees Only the Good
Monday, October 6,2025,02:58
What's fueling the growth of the U.S. stock market? The S&P 500 continues to shrug off concerns, including rising valuations, the government shutdown, and even political unpredictability. The broad-based stock index just posted its 31st record high this year. Despite the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump, investors maintain a strong belief that the U.S. president will do everything within his power to support the markets. Additionally, there is the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle and the boom in artificial intelligence. Democrats and Republicans remain at a stalemate. Neither side seems willing to compromise and restore the full functioning of the U.S. government. The shutd... .. read more..
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 6. Review of Yes...
Monday, October 6,2025,02:58
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 147.45 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began rising from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. This resulted in a minor rise of the pair by about 10 pips. The yen fell by 300 pips against the U.S. dollar on the news that Sanae Takaichi would become the new Prime Minister of Japan. Her plans for economic stimulus and her commitment to accommodative monetary policy triggered a sharp sell-off in the yen on the currency markets. The market appears to view her election as a signal that Abenomics—the policy of aggressive fiscal stimulus and low interest rates—will continue. Invest... .. read more..
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 6. Review of Yes...
Monday, October 6,2025,02:58
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound The test of the 1.3465 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. A second test of 1.3465, while the MACD was in overbought territory, provided an entry point for a sell trade according to Scenario 2; however, no major decline in the pair occurred afterward. The British pound responded with solid growth to the news that the U.S. ISM Services PMI had returned to the 50-point area. This morning, expectations for the UK Construction PMI are not optimistic, which may limit the upside potential of the pair. Additionally, a public speech by Bank of Engl... .. read more..
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 6. Review of Yes...
Monday, October 6,2025,02:58
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro The test of the 1.1732 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The release of ISM data showing a decline in U.S. services sector activity to the borderline level of 50 raised concerns among market participants but did not trigger a large-scale drop in the dollar. Most likely, the market was already prepared for such a development. The ISM index nearing such a critical level reflects the general trend of slowing economic growth in the U.S., so an interest rate cut in October now appears to be the most ... .. read more..
Short-Term Analysis for BTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD for 06.10.2025
Monday, October 6,2025,02:37
Dear readers, I've prepared a short-term forecast for Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum based on the Elliott wave analysis. Major Takeaways BTCUSD: The final part of a bullish impulse appears to be developing. Consider buy entries with a target at a high of 129,000.00. XRPUSD: The price appears to be growing to the previous high within a bullish impulse. Consider long positions, targeting 3.654. ETHUSD: The asset is likely rising in the final bullish impulse. Consider buying with Take Profit at 4,910.16. Elliott Wave Analysis for Bitcoin The H4 chart of Bitcoin shows the second half of impulse 1-2-3-4-5 forming. Its first three sub-waves... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #Li... .. read more..
US Dollar Regains Strength. Forecast as of 06.10.2025
Monday, October 6,2025,02:31
Has the US economy slipped into a recession, or is it experiencing rapid economic growth? For investors, this is just another mystery. The data is often mixed, and it is currently unavailable due to the government shutdown. Let's discuss this topic and develop a trading plan for the EURUSD pair. Major Takeaways There is a gap between US GDP and employment. The eurozone economy is two-speed. Europe has lost the currency war. Positions on the EURUSD pair can be opened on a breakout of the 1.168–1.178 range. Weekly US Dollar Fundamental Forecast If the eurozone economy can be described as... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinance .. read more..
There is potential for XPD/USD to strengthen today toward its nearest resista...
Monday, October 6,2025,02:23
[XPD/USD] – [Monday, October 06, 2025] With EMA(50) forming a Golden Cross with EMA(200) and the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish area, Palladium has the potential to move higher toward its nearest resistance level today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1303.51 2. Resistance. 1 : 1283.23 3. Pivot : 1260.97 4. Support. 1 : 1240.69 5. Support. 2 : 1218.43 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Palladium strengthens, breaks above, and closes above 1260.97, it may continue to advance to 1283.23. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1283.23 is breached and closes above it, XPD/USD may try to test 1303.51. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if XPD/USD declines and brea... .. read more..
Although Natural Gas has the potential for a limited correction, it still has...
Monday, October 6,2025,02:23
[Natural Gas] – [Monday, October 06, 2025] With all technical analysis data indicating bullishness, from both EMAs forming a Golden Cross to the RSI being in the Neutral-Bullish level, it is quite likely that Natural Gas will continue its upward momentum today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 3.507 2. Resistance. 1 : 3.421 3. Pivot : 3.364 4. Support. 1 : 3.278 5. Support. 2 : 3.221 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If #NG strengthens and breaks out and closes above 3.364, it may move to test the 3.421 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 3.421 is broken and closes above, Natural Gas could continue strengthening up to 3.507. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens i... .. read more..
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders – October 6
Monday, October 6,2025,02:21
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure. The main reasons for its weakness include disappointing economic data and the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. since mid-last week. The decline of the ISM Services PMI to the critical 50-point level caused concern among market participants. However, the market appeared to anticipate such a slowdown, further reinforcing expectations of upcoming monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve. With the ISM index hovering near contraction territory, the trend of weakening economic growth is becoming clearer. That said, the market's reaction to the data was restrained, as investors are awaiting more precise signals from the Fed. The upcoming FOMC... .. read more..
Market Quick Take - 6 October 2025
Monday, October 6,2025,02:10
Market Quick Take – 6 October 2025 Market drivers and catalysts Equities: US mixed on Friday, with tech weaker even as S&P 500 ekes out new record Volatility: Sideways volatility. Digital Assets: Bitcoin rallied to a record at the weekend before easing back. Currencies: JPY blasted lower on bombshell news of Takaichi election Commodities: Gold hits fresh record, crude steadies on modest OPEC+ hike Fixed Income: Japan’s yield curve steepens dramatically on Macro events: Eurozone Aug. Retail Sales Macro headlines Japan’s LDP leadership election resulted in a shock victory for conservative-leaning fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi , just days after odds were thought to have ti... .. read more..
Trading Signals for BITCOIN for October 6-8, 2025: buy above $122,500 (21 SMA...
Monday, October 6,2025,02:06
Bitcoin is trading around 123,616, bouncing within the bullish trend channel formed on September 26. Bitcoin could continue rising in the coming hours, reaching 8/8 Murray around $125,000 and could even surpass its high and reach +1/8 Murray around 128,125. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the 21SMA at 122,243, we could expect a trend reversal, and it could reach 6/8 Murray at 118,750. The eagle indicator on the H4 chart has reached the overbought zone. We believe that Bitcoin below the psychological level of $125,000 could undergo a strong technical correction in the coming days and reach 5/8 Murray around 115,316. Our outlook for Bitcoin is positive, so we will look for buying opportu... .. read more..
Trading Signals for EUR/USD for October 6-8, 2025: buy above 1.1700 (200 EMA ...
Monday, October 6,2025,02:03
Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a positive bias around 1.1727. The euro is now above the 8/8 Murray, above the 21SMA, and within an uptrend channel formed on September 25. If the euro consolidates above 1.1700 in the coming hours, we could expect it to close the gap it left around 1.1735 and could even continue rising to reach the top of the uptrend channel around 1.1805. If the uptrend continues, we could expect the EUR/USD pair to reach the +8/8 Murray around 1.1840. On the other hand, if the euro consolidates below 1.1717 and below 8/8 Murray, we can expect a sharp breakout of the uptrend channel, and the price could reach 7/8 Murray around 1.1596. The E... .. read more..
Trading Signals for GOLD for October 6-8, 2025: buy above $3,920 (21 SMA - +1...
Monday, October 6,2025,01:58
Gold is on the way to new all-time highs, placing the price within a strong upward trend similar to the movement formed on September 11. XAU/USD could continue its rise in the coming hours, reaching 3,963, a level that coincides with the top of the uptrend channel. At current price levels, gold is having a small consolidation. If the price remains above +1/8 Murray in the coming days, we could expect a strong upward acceleration that could push the instrument up to 3,950 and even to the psychological level of $4,000. Conversely, if the gold price falls below the key level of 3,906, we believe it could reach the 21SMA around 3,872 or the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,860. If gold ... .. read more..
FX option expiries for 6 October 10am New York cut
Monday, October 6,2025,01:55
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD layered at the 1.1700 and 1.1750 levels. The former will likely be the more attractive one, though the expiries in general should act as a bookends for price action on any extensions to start the new week. The expiry levels don't tie to any technical significance, so they will be acting mostly on their own pull in the session ahead. The bigger focus is going involve dollar sentiment with regards to USD/JPY though, considering the Japan LDP leadership election result over the weekend. A firm break above 150.00 for the pair is likely to keep the dollar underpinned to start the new week. Fo... .. read more..
Yen Declines After Takaichi's Election Win
Monday, October 6,2025,01:46
The Japanese yen declined against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday, after fiscal dove, Sanae Takaichi was elected to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). .. read more..
European Economic News Preview: Eurozone Retail Sales, Investor Confidence Due
Monday, October 6,2025,01:37
Retail sales and investor confidence from the euro area and construction purchasing managers' survey results from the UK and Germany are due on Monday. At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE publishes industrial production for August. Production had increased 2.5 percent on a yearly basis in July. .. read more..
What to Watch on October 6? Fundamental Event Breakdown for Beginners
Monday, October 6,2025,01:14
Macroeconomic Data Overview: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Only two data points are worth noting: Retail Sales in the Eurozone and Construction PMI in the United Kingdom. However, both fall far short of being top-tier releases. Consequently, we do not expect any strong or lasting market reactions to these reports. At the same time, the U.S. dollar still has plenty of fundamental reasons to resume its decline. Fundamental Events Overview: There will be several noteworthy events on Monday. In the United Kingdom, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak. Bailey rarely appears in the public spotlight, so while any shift in BoE policy or tone is n... .. read more..
How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on October 6? Simple Tips and Trade Re...
Monday, October 6,2025,01:14
Friday Trade Review 1H Chart – GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair exhibited a slight bullish movement that didn't affect the overall technical picture. Since breaking the downward trendline, the upward movement has yet to truly begin. As with the euro, this kind of behavior raises many questions. Just last week, the U.S. government experienced a shutdown (a major event clearly weighing on the economy), the only labor market report (ADP) came in extremely weak, and the ISM business activity indices signaled economic slowdown. So, the market currently has plenty of reasons to sell the U.S. dollar—yet it's not happening. Mid-term, GBP still maintains a bullish bias, but upward movement has ... .. read more..
How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on October 6? Simple Tips and Trade Re...
Monday, October 6,2025,01:14
Friday Trade Recap: 1H Chart – EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair once again traded in a "neither fish nor fowl" manner. Volatility remained minimal, as it had been throughout the previous week. We reiterate our earlier observation: it was a very strange week. Even without the missing Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports, there were plenty of fundamental and macroeconomic events—and many of them were significant. What explains the lack of volatility and overall reluctance to trade remains unclear. Even Friday's ISM Services PMI, which came in well below forecasts, could have easily triggered a 50–60 pip drop in the dollar. From a technical perspective, the upward trend is still con... .. read more..
Chart Art: EUR/NZD’s Potential Pullback to 2.0000
Monday, October 6,2025,01:13
EUR/NZD looks ready to retest key inflection points that could set the stage for another leg higher in its longer-term uptrend. .. read more..
Rupee rises 5 paise to 88.74 against US dollar in early trade
Monday, October 6,2025,00:53
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 88.75 against the US dollar, then inched up to 88.74, registering a gain of five paise from its previous close .. read more..
Japan’s leadership shift: Market opportunities and risks
Monday, October 6,2025,00:30
Key points: Continuity, not change : Takaichi’s leadership signals fiscal support and BoJ patience, extending Japan’s pro-growth stance. Soft yen, strong liquidity : A dovish policy mix sustains carry trades, global risk appetite, and support for Japanese exporters. Selective opportunities : Structural themes in defense, AI, and energy security may drive the next leg of Japan’s equity story — but with execution and policy risks. Policy continuity = stability + stimulus Sanae Takaichi’s win in Japan’s leadership race removes uncertainty about the country’s policy direction. As the first woman to lead the country, her agenda is expected to continue ... .. read more..
RBI to intervene to support rupee near record low, traders say
Monday, October 6,2025,00:13
The rupee was last at 88.7575 per U.S. dollar, little changed on the day but in touching distance of 88.80 hit last week .. read more..
How to Tell if a Trading Bot is a Scam
Monday, October 6,2025,00:00
Every trader has seen the ads: bots promising guaranteed profit, zero effort, and “life-changing” returns. The question most traders ask quietly is, how do I know if this is real or just another scam? .. read more..
The S&P 500 is at all-time highs… but what happens next time we get FED cuts?
Monday, October 6,2025,00:00
This is the kind of market setup that gets everyone’s emotions running hot. We’re sitting closely to the fresh all-time highs on the S&P 500, volume is crushed, and yet every desk I talk to is split down the middle, half think this rally runs into 2026, half think we’re about to cliff-dive if the Fed moves too fast. .. read more..
Chart Art: WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Back in Correction Mode!
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:47
WTI crude oil fell through support around the $62 per barrel mark and now seems ready to retest this area of interest. Will it hold as resistance? .. read more..
GBP/USD Overview — October 6. The Fed's Duality of Tone
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:33
On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair posted a slight increase, though volatility remained nearly minimal. The U.S. was expected to release the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data that day, but it had become clear earlier in the week that those reports wouldn't be published due to the ongoing government shutdown, which forced many federal agencies into unpaid leave. However, the ISM Services PMI was released on Friday, and it sharply disappointed, following the same pattern seen earlier with the Manufacturing PMI. Thus, the dollar had significant reasons to fall, yet once again it barely moved, despite ample justification for a decline. As we have stated multiple times, the recent mark... .. read more..
EUR/USD Overview — October 6. The Market Has Fully Entered Hibernation
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:33
The EUR/USD currency pair remained relatively calm on Friday. Volatility remained minimal. In fact, the only relatively strong movement of the entire past week occurred on Thursday—ironically, the day with virtually no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events. Only the Eurozone unemployment rate, which unexpectedly climbed to 6.3%, had the theoretical potential to trigger a reaction. However, other days featured far more important data, even excluding the unreleased Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures. Thus, the first conclusion is that last week's price movement had nothing to do with logic. As we've stated many times before, there's no point in trying to rationalize illogi... .. read more..
Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for GBP/USD on October 6. The Pound'...
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:33
GBP/USD Analysis – 5M Chart On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair attempted to resume its upward movement in line with the new uptrend that formed after the last trendline break. However, as with the euro, most of the past week was spent in a flat phase. While less pronounced than in EUR/USD, the pound also failed to break below the critical line—or above the Senkou Span B line, for that matter. Thus, we're still in a flat market. There were no significant events in the UK on Friday. The only noteworthy release was the U.S. ISM Services PMI, which was processed by the market weakly and unconvincingly. On Thursday, for reasons unclear, the pound plummeted despite having multiple fundamental... .. read more..
Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on October 6. Total Flat...
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:33
EUR/USD Analysis – 5M Chart The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no significant movement on Friday. Even on the hourly time frame, it is clearly visible that the pair remained in a total flat throughout the past week. Only once did the price attempt to break out of the range between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—on Thursday, when the unemployment rate in the Eurozone unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. All other, far more important, data was either ignored by the market or responded to very weakly. And that's a shame. There was plenty to pay attention to last week—starting with the U.S. government shutdown. It's hard to believe such a major event, which doesn't happen every year, wo... .. read more..
EUR/USD Forecast for October 6, 2025
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:33
EUR/USD The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi's election as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan's next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week. The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1910. However, th... .. read more..
GBP/USD Forecast for October 6, 2025
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:33
At the start of the new trading week, the British pound attempted to break below the MACD line on the daily chart. However, due to a downside gap at the opening, the momentum was insufficient, and the price returned above the MACD line after briefly breaching it. If today's candlestick closes bullish (white), the price may attempt to break through the key resistance level at 1.3525 again. A successful consolidation above this level would extend the upward movement toward the target at 1.3631—marking the high from June 13. On the four-hour chart, the price is poised to break through the MACD line in an effort to close the gap. On a price rise, the Marlin oscillator would return into positi... .. read more..
Forecast for USD/CAD on October 6, 2025
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:33
USD/CAD On the daily chart of USD/CAD, a relatively weak, likely corrective divergence has formed. The price reversed from the target level of 1.3977. The MACD line is approaching the 1.3878 level at a steep upward angle. Likely, the intersection point of the MACD line with the target level will create a point of attraction and, at the same time, a potential reversal point for the next upward movement, as illustrated by the dashed line in the chart. A consolidation of the price below the 1.3878 level and also below the MACD line will deepen the decline to the 1.3810 level—either to create a false breakout or for a medium-term downward move. On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the M... .. read more..
USD/CAD Forecast for October 6, 2025
Sunday, October 5,2025,23:33
USD/CAD On the daily chart of USD/CAD, a relatively weak, likely corrective divergence has formed. The price reversed from the target level of 1.3977. The MACD line is approaching the 1.3878 level at a steep upward angle. Likely, the intersection point of the MACD line with the target level will create a point of attraction and, at the same time, a potential reversal point for the next upward movement, as illustrated by the dashed line in the chart. A consolidation of the price below the 1.3878 level and also below the MACD line will deepen the decline to the 1.3810 level—either to create a false breakout or for a medium-term downward move. On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the M... .. read more..
FX Fundies Cheat Sheet for October 6 – 10, 2025
Sunday, October 5,2025,22:18
After the government shutdown sent the dollar spiraling, markets are gearing up for a data-heavy stretch that could reshape the FX space. .. read more..
US Dollar weakens on concerns over prolonged US shutdown.
Sunday, October 5,2025,20:00
GBP - British pound The single currencies latest trading range has been extremely tight and has failed so far to capture the most recent recovery in Eurozone-US yield spreads that should have offered considerable fundamental support. Recent data releases show tepid services growth and a softer than expected PPI (Producer Price Index) along with a contraction in France's industrial production figures. Bank of England Deputy Governor, Sarah Breeden, argued in favour of reducing interest rates, citing economic risks that could bring inflation lower. On the contrary, Clare Lombardelli and MPC member Catherine Mann both warned that recent inflation shocks should not be considered temporary giv... .. read more..
EUR/USD. Washington Diet: Shutdown Leaves Markets Without Key Guidance
Sunday, October 5,2025,18:19
Dark times are ahead for EUR/USD traders—and for all dollar-based pairs. The continued U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of official economic data. For instance, last week was supposed to bring September's Nonfarm Payrolls numbers, but traders had to settle for the ADP report, which does not cover government employees or several other non-agricultural sectors. This week, key inflation metrics (CPI/PPI) are scheduled for release, but they are unlikely to be published unless Congress unexpectedly reopens the government. If the shutdown continues—which remains the most likely scenario—EUR/USD traders will be forced to operate in a state of information vacuum. Or rather, a diet.... .. read more..
U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview
Sunday, October 5,2025,18:19
This week, the market's attention will once again be focused—if not entirely, then almost entirely—on the U.S. dollar. More precisely, on the U.S. news cycle surrounding the dollar. Let's recall that last week marked the beginning of a government shutdown, and a new vote in the Senate to extend funding deadlines failed. Republicans are still a few votes short of passing the budget for the next fiscal year. As a result, it's currently impossible to say with certainty when the shutdown will end. Meanwhile, the shutdown continues to evolve with increasingly complex political baggage. Democrats still demand that social and healthcare programs not be cut, effectively pushing for a partial repe... .. read more..
British Pound: Weekly Preview
Sunday, October 5,2025,18:19
While the euro has remained in a sideways range over the past week, the British pound has been swinging back and forth for months. These fluctuations don't significantly impact the wave layout, but the structure is becoming more complex and increasingly difficult to use effectively in short-term trading. That said, the upward trend segment continues to develop, and the fundamental backdrop still favors buyers—this much is clear. In the new week, it will be difficult for the pound to find strong support from the domestic UK news cycle. But that's not necessarily a problem. First, even the current set of news may be enough for the market to resume buying activity. Second, the primary intrig... .. read more..
Euro Currency: Weekly Preview
Sunday, October 5,2025,18:19
The way EUR/USD traded this week deserves a spot in textbooks—under the section "Exceptions to the Rules." Despite wave patterns indicating the construction of an upward trend and a nearly 100% supportive news backdrop for buyers, we didn't see any significant movement throughout the week. While the overall wave layout remains intact, trader sentiment may have been negatively impacted, as there were plenty of reasons to expect greater volatility. As a result, we may see the market continue trading with relatively low activity going into the new week. If last week—despite objectively strong news—failed to trigger a rally, it implies that the market has entered a pause phase, which could be... .. read more..
Swiss National Bank: The Dollar Is Out of Favor — Part 2
Sunday, October 5,2025,18:19
Based on everything discussed in the previous review, it seems we're witnessing an emerging tug-of-war between Donald Trump and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB wants a weaker franc, and Trump wants a weaker dollar. If Trump perceives the SNB's actions as "interventions aimed at making Swiss goods more competitive abroad," the likely response would be new tariffs or sanctions. This week, the U.S. Treasury and the Swiss National Bank released a joint statement declaring that neither side is engaging in currency manipulation to gain a competitive advantage. Based on this, both parties may maintain a neutral stance moving forward. The SNB could allow the USD/CHF exchange rate to float ... .. read more..
Swiss National Bank: The Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal
Sunday, October 5,2025,18:19
The dominance of the U.S. dollar is waning. Of course, the process of central banks moving away from holding dollar reserves and governments shifting away from using the dollar for international transactions is a long one—it may take years or even decades. But as the saying goes, the first step has been taken. This week, it was revealed that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) made a historic pivot from the dollar to the euro. Instead of purchasing U.S. dollars, the SNB is now buying euros to stabilize the Swiss franc's exchange rate. It's important to note that both the SNB and Switzerland as a whole are considered strongholds of financial stability. While SNB policy doesn't carry the global w... .. read more..
The Paradox of the U.S. Economy
Sunday, October 5,2025,18:18
In the first quarter, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.6% due to the implementation of Donald Trump's tariffs. In the second quarter, it showed one of its strongest growth rates in recent years, mainly due to the same trade war. While the first reading came as no surprise, the second certainly did. Still, both can be easily explained. In Q1, companies expected the worst, drastically cut imports, and many consumers chose to hold off on non-essential purchases amidst complete economic uncertainty. In Q2, the U.S. budget experienced a surge in import-related revenue, while actual import volumes continued to decline. However, the most interesting aspect is this: if tariffs increase government... .. read more..
The Fed Is Not Changing Its Tune—And Likely Won't
Sunday, October 5,2025,18:18
With Donald Trump potentially interested in blocking labor market and unemployment data releases, it's critical to assess the Federal Reserve's position. Right now, the level of uncertainty is off the charts. In his recent speeches, Jerome Powell made it clear that rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data. However, the question remains: how will the FOMC make decisions if the data are not available? In my view, if the government shutdown doesn't end within a week or two, the Fed may choose not to adjust monetary policy at its October meeting as a precautionary measure. It's worth mentioning that despite a dovish sentiment within the FOMC, most policymakers lean toward a "moder... .. read more..