» EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar
18/04/19 10:06 from Marc to Market
Overview: A bout of profit-taking in equities began in the US yesterday and has carried through Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in five days, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day ...

» Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless
17/04/19 10:06 from Marc to Market
Overview:  The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending.  Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi momen...

» Cool Video: Trump Ahead in 2020?
17/04/19 00:35 from Marc to Market
Goldman Sachs opined that President Trump had an edge to win the 2020 presidential election and Fox Business thought it was newsworthy and invited to me join the discussion.     First, I tried playing down the significance...

» The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid
16/04/19 10:10 from Marc to Market
Overview:  Amid light news, global equities are moving higher   In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European eq...

» Redemption Monday
15/04/19 10:12 from Marc to Market
Overview: The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start.  The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today.  Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singa...

» The Dollar's Technical Picture Turns more Nuanced and the Significance of the Gaps in the S&P 500
14/04/19 11:00 from Marc to Market
The US dollar fell against most of the major currencies over the past week. The yen and the Swiss franc were the exceptions.  The technical correction, we  anticipated last week, may have some more room to run.  However, w...

» Dollar Super Cycle Revisited
13/04/19 11:41 from Marc to Market
In the big picture, we argue that the dollar’s appreciation is part of the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods . The first was the Reagan-Volcker dollar rally, spurred by a policy mix of tight monetary and loose...

» Euro Bid Above $1.13 for the First Time this Month
12/04/19 10:09 from Marc to Market
Overview:   The consolidative week in the capital markets is drawing to a close.  Equity markets are narrowly mixed.  In Asia, most indices outside of the greater China (China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) edged higher, leaving ...

» Market Yawns at Latest Brexit Extension
11/04/19 19:54 from Marc to Market
Overview:  The S&P 500 closed higher yesterday for the ninth session in the past ten, but the coattails are short and global equities are trading with a heavier bias today.  A firm CPI reading in China took a toll on l...

» Be Careful What You Wish For
10/04/19 23:30 from Marc to Market
There were only a few formal disputes under NAFTA 1.0.  It says more about the adjudication process than the underlying issues.  It was not binding.  The Democrats want stronger enforcement provisions in what the NAFTA 2.0...

» Is the USMCA Dead?
09/04/19 10:00 from Marc to Market
The heads of state may have agreed on the modernization of NAFTA, but the necessary legislative approval may not be forthcoming this year.  The US legislative process has been complicated by the fact that the Democrats secured a maj...

» Brexit, EU-China, and the Abandonment of the Open Door
09/04/19 00:19 from Marc to Market
(I am in Mexico at the World Trade Center General Assembly, participating on a panel about USMCA--NAFTA2.0--for which approval remains elusive.  It is possible that the US threatens to pull out of NAFTA 1.0 to force action by the US...

» Important Steps Away from the Abyss
07/04/19 13:38 from Marc to Market
It seems to be well appreciated among by policymakers and investors that the system is ill-prepared to cope with another financial crisis.   It is understandable that so many are concerned that the end of the business cycle could tr...

» When is the Trend not Your Friend?
07/04/19 13:16 from Marc to Market
The US dollar remained firm last week.    The strongest of the majors was the Norwegian krone, and it rose less than 0.2% against the greenback.   The volatility is continuing to compress.  The one-month euro and...

» Trade Talk and German Industrial Output Lift Sentiment
05/04/19 13:26 from Marc to Market
Overview:  Comments by Chinese President Xi, recognizing substantial progress in trade, helped boost sentiment after the US-China negotiators failed to set a date for the meeting between the two presidents.  Although we have ar...

» Limited Price Action Does not Do Justice to Macro Developments
04/04/19 13:33 from Marc to Market
Overview: The global capital markets are subdued despite several macro developments.  The US and China may announce as early as today when the two presidents will meet to ostensibly sign a trade deal, while House of Commons effort t...

» Herding Cats
04/04/19 08:09 from Marc to Market
Overview:   After surging yesterday, equities are struggling to maintain the momentum that carried that S&P 500 to its best level since last October.  Most Asia Pacific equity markets advanced.  Japan's small losses we...

» Optimism Sweeps Through the Capital Markets
03/04/19 10:05 from Marc to Market
Overview: Japan announced the name of the new era that begins May 1 and a new emperor.  The connotation is of beautiful harmony.  And investors have taken the bit and run with it.  Optimism that the US and China near reach...

» Cool Video: Fed's Independence Challenged and Defended
01/04/19 19:50 from Marc to Market
I was on the set Fox Business set this afternoon talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy.   Payne suggested that both the political left and right are trying to politicize the Federal Reserve to print money for...

» April Monthly Currency Outlook
01/04/19 13:56 from Marc to Market
Poor economic data and soft inflation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were n...

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