TD forecast a Federal Reserve (FOMC) rate hike in October and January
Thursday, September 17,2026,02:28
Because this call predates the meeting, its real market relevance now lies in whether it survives contact with what the Fed actually signalled. TD's January leg sits ahead of the Fed's own median dot, which points to only one further hike this year rather than two, so the call is currently more hawkish than the central bank's own guidance rather than confirming it. If TD reaffirms the sequencing in the coming days, that would put it in a small group with Goldman Sachs pushing timelines earlier than the December consensus most other major banks still hold, reinforcing the case for near term dollar strength and pressure on rate sensitive assets. If TD instead walks back the January leg once... .. read more..
Goldman ditches one and done call, now sees a second Fed hike in October
Thursday, September 17,2026,02:02
Goldman moving to October rather than December for the next hike tightens the near term calendar markets have to price around, and puts a live meeting risk squarely inside a window some had assumed the Fed would prefer to avoid given its closeness to the midterms. If other desks follow Goldman in pulling their own timelines forward, that would likely keep short end yields and the dollar supported into October, while adding to the case for a higher for longer rate path more broadly. The bigger shift here is arguably qualitative rather than quantitative: with Goldman abandoning the most dovish framing on the street, the range of outcomes priced into rates markets narrows toward the more haw... .. read more..
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7580 (vs. estimate at 6.7241)
Thursday, September 17,2026,01:15
The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. strongest for CNY since 3 February 2023 PBoC inject 162bn yuan via 7 day reverse repo today inject 600 bn yuan of overnight reverse repurchase operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. .. read more..
IMF says RBA may need more hikes as it urges Australia to cut spending
Thursday, September 17,2026,00:56
The IMF's warning adds institutional weight to what markets are already pricing, an RBA hike as soon as September 29, and reinforces AUD support at the margin given the fund is flagging upside inflation risk rather than downside growth risk as the dominant concern. The bigger swing factor for the Aussie near term is energy prices rather than the IMF statement itself, given Brent's 35% surge since early August on the worsening Middle East conflict is the direct channel the IMF says could force the RBA's hand through second round inflation effects. With the Fed also having just hiked, a hawkish RBA move would keep Australia in step with a broader global tightening pulse, which should be a s... .. read more..
NZ Q2 GDP beats forecasts at 2.6% y/y, easing RBNZ growth concerns
Thursday, September 17,2026,00:39
The beat gives the RBNZ some cover on growth just as it continues a hiking cycle built primarily around inflation rather than activity, having already lifted the OCR to 2.75% this month for a second straight meeting despite a weak growth backdrop. That combination, a central bank tightening into resilient rather than deteriorating growth, is arguably more useful for the Kiwi than the data surprise itself. Even so, NZD/USD barely moved, ticking up to $0.5724 from $0.5718, with the broader US dollar strength that followed this week's Fed hike offsetting the local beat. That leaves NZD reaction skewed toward external drivers for now, and Westpac's point that inflation data, not growth data, ... .. read more..
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7241 – Reuters estimate
Thursday, September 17,2026,00:26
The fixing mechanism matters most right now because of what it has been signalling over recent weeks. The PBOC set its reference rate at the widest weak side deviation from market estimates in six months in late August, after the yuan touched a three and a half year high, a clear sign of discomfort with the pace of gains rather than the level itself. Traders should read this as the central bank applying the brakes rather than attempting to reverse the broader trend, since the yuan has still risen a meaningful amount against the dollar this year. The balancing act Beijing faces is straightforward: a stronger currency helps with capital stability and import costs, but too rapid a rise risks... .. read more..
BoE preview: Bank Rate seen on hold as Iran-driven energy shock stirs hike talk
Wednesday, September 16,2026,23:39
The story here is energy, not the rate decision itself. British natural gas and Brent crude have jumped nearly 20% this month on the back of the Iran war, the same driver that pushed the Fed to hike a day earlier and has already moved the ECB. That leaves sterling and UK rates markets more exposed to the path of oil and gas prices than to Thursday's widely expected hold , since a further leg up in energy costs would strengthen the case for the November hike markets are already pricing at 80%. Gilts carry a second, related risk: any signal the BoE will scale back or halt gilt sales would ease supply pressure on the long end of the curve, a dynamic Franklin Templeton is already betting on w... .. read more..
Fed dot plot backs hawks as Warsh tone rattles markets more than the hike
Wednesday, September 16,2026,23:32
With the 25bp hike itself fully priced, the market's reaction Wednesday centred on the 10 year Treasury yield's push back above 5%, a level Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth flagged as the more important signal than the rate decision. A hawkish dot plot alongside Warsh's tougher press conference tone reinforces the case for yields staying elevated near term, which typically weighs hardest on rate sensitive equities and keeps the dollar underpinned. With the Fed's own median guidance now aligned with the more hawkish end of Wall Street's forecasts, markets are likely to keep pricing a real chance of a second hike in December rather than treating Wednesday as an isolated, defensive move. --- The... .. read more..
New Zealand GDP Rises 0.2% In Q2
Wednesday, September 16,2026,23:09
New Zealand's gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2026, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday. .. read more..
New Zealand GDP Data Due On Thursday
Wednesday, September 16,2026,22:03
New Zealand will on Thursday release Q2 figures for gross domestic product, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. .. read more..
Fed hikes, hints at more: 7 takeaways from the September FOMC
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:07
A new hiking cycle, alongside an upward revision to the Fed's longer run neutral rate estimate, points to a higher for longer rate environment than markets had been pricing coming into the meeting. The unanimous vote and the median dot's call for at least one more 2026 hike leave little ambiguity about the Committee's near term bias, which typically supports the dollar and pressures front end Treasury yields higher. With four participants pencilling in three hikes for the year against just two seeing September's move as the last one needed, the spread of views also signals scope for volatility around upcoming data, particularly inflation prints, as the market tries to locate the actual pa... .. read more..
China economic slowdown deepens despite AI-led export boom
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
China’s domestic economy slowed down further in August, with sluggish consumption, weak investments and a worsening property sector outweighing strong AI-driven manufacturing and exports, adding to pressure on Beijing to deliver more policy support. • Aug retail sales growth at 0.4% signals fragile consumption recovery • Property sector slump remains • AI-linked industries – a ... .. read more..
EU invites Canada to become bloc’s first ’associate member’
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to become the European Union’s first associate member, marking a significant shift in EU policy as the bloc looks to deepen ties with Ottawa amid mounting pressure from China and the U.S. Speaking Wednesday in her annual State of the Union address to the European Parliament, ... .. read more..
UK inflation inches higher on rising fuel bills
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
Headline inflation edged up to 3.1% on a widely expected 7% month-on-month rise in fuel costs. The weekly data points to another 3-4% rise in petrol/diesel through September, which we expect to help lift headline inflation up to 3.4% in next month’s data. But this isn’t what matters to the Bank of England – the ... .. read more..
U.S. war with Iran has cost $38B and is running at $3B per month, CBO says
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
The six-month conflict between the United States and Iran has cost $38 billion through August 1, with expenses projected to grow by $3 billion each month, the Congressional Budget Office said. The Trump administration continues to seek ways to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The war is expected to add 0.5% ... .. read more..
India could face up to 100% US tariffs over Russian oil
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
A new bill could give President Trump the power to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil and gas, potentially affecting major importer India. What you need to know This blog is now closed. It was a roundup of some of the top headlines from across India on Wednesday, September 16: ... .. read more..
US borrowing costs hit highest level since 2007
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
US government borrowing costs climbed to their highest level since 2007 after a jump in oil prices further fuelled concerns about inflation. The effective interest rate on US government bonds over 10 years, known as the 10-year Treasury yield, rose as high as 5.04% but has eased back since. Government bond yields have been rising ... .. read more..
Why India and Philippines aren’t losing the AI battle – yet
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
Why AI matters for India and the Philippines India and the Philippines have long emerged as global outsourcing powerhouses, leveraging skilled labour, English proficiency, and cost competitiveness to build large software, IT, and business services sectors. The rise of AI, therefore, matters disproportionately for both economies. Many outsourced services involve routine tasks that AI can ... .. read more..
US Import Prices Surge in August
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
Prices of imports into the United States jumped by 0.7% from the previous month in August of 2026, erasing the 0.3% declines in the two prior months, and firmly above expectations of a softer 0.4% increase. Despite the rise in wholesale crude oil and fuel prices across the globe due to the escalation in the ... .. read more..
US Mortgage Rates Rise to Highest Level Since May 2025
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US rose to 6.97% in the week ended September 11, its highest level since May 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The increase followed a rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year note briefly touching 5% and approaching its highest level since 2007, ... .. read more..
UK Inflation Accelerates to 3.1%
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
The UK’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.1% in August 2026, the highest level in five months, in line with market expectations and up from 2.9% in July. Transport costs, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution to the annual rate, with transport inflation rising to 4.6% from 3.6% in July. Petrol prices rose ... .. read more..
Japan trade deficit widens in August as soaring imports offset export strength
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
Japan clocked a wider than expected trade deficit in August as surging import costs– due to a weak yen and steep energy prices– largely offset robust exports as overseas demand remained strong. Japan’s trade balance slid to a deficit of 1.105 trillion yen ($7.12 billion) in August that was bigger than expectations of 1.052 trillion ... .. read more..
Report: SE Asia economies set for 4.8% growth annually through 2035
Wednesday, September 16,2026,21:00
Southeast Asia’s six largest economies — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — are projected to grow by an average of 4.8 percent annually between 2026 and 2035, according to a report released on Wednesday. Growth will be supported by sustained foreign investment and capital formation, continued industrialization and infrastructure development, and productivity ... .. read more..
Fed's Warsh: The economy appears to be strengthening
Wednesday, September 16,2026,18:32
Decision comes at a time when the economy appears to be strengthening I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive That view was widely shared Economy is resilient An attitude of optimism is what I heard in the FOMC in the past two days Labor side of Fed remit is 'in good shape' Predominant focus is on price-stability The plain fact is that inflation is too high Summer data soes not tell me inflation situation has improved Too many categories are posting increases above 3% on 6 and 12-month basis Commodity prices bear watching and those have risen We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our target, FOMC decided the standard has not... .. read more..
Fed Raises Interest Rates For First Time Since July 2023
Wednesday, September 16,2026,18:21
For the first time since July of 2023, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it has decided to raise interest rates. The Fed said it decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 percent in support of its dual mandate. .. read more..
Markets react to the Fed: US dollar rises and front-end yields jump
Wednesday, September 16,2026,18:18
The initial market reaction to the Federal Reserve decision shows a stronger U.S. dollar and a sharp rise in shorter-term Treasury yields. The stock market reaction was more measured, although the Dow moved from a modest gain to a small loss. The comparisons below show market levels immediately before the decision and approximately 12 minutes after the release. Forex: U.S. dollar moves higher across the board The dollar strengthened against all the major currencies: EURUSD: 1.1536 → 1.1502. The USD gained 34 pips. USDJPY: 155.04 → 155.37. The USD gained 33 pips. GBPUSD: 1.3447 → 1.3411. The USD gained 36 pips. USDCHF: 0.8184 → 0.8210. The USD gained 26 pips. USDCAD: 1.3938 → 1.3957. The U... .. read more..
Andy Burnham's planning a tax bombshell that will drag us back to 70s, warns ...
Wednesday, September 16,2026,18:13
She says the Labour leader risks dragging Britain back into a 1970s-style Winter of Discontent. .. read more..
Fed dot plot signals another 2026 rate hike as growth strengthens and inflati...
Wednesday, September 16,2026,18:05
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, but the updated dot plot suggests policymakers may not be finished. The median federal funds rate projection for the end of 2026 increased to 4.1% from 3.8% in June. Because the projections are rounded to one decimal place, that represents a roughly 25-basis-point upward shift in the projected policy path. Importantly, the new 4.1% median also points to one additional 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end from today’s new target range. Dot plot: The projected rate path moves higher The changes in the median federal funds rate projections are: 2026:4.1% vs 3.8% in June — ↑ approximately 25 basis points 2027:4.1% ... .. read more..
The full statement from the Federal Reserve Board for September 2026
Wednesday, September 16,2026,18:01
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage pointto 3-3/4to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments,domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remain... .. read more..
FOMC rate decision: Fed hikes for the first time in three years
Wednesday, September 16,2026,18:00
Rates hiked by 25 basis points, as expected Prior was 3.50%-3.75% Unanimous vote Repeats that "inflation remains elevated" Forecasts show slightly higher inflation and slightly lower unemployment The market was pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike today and they met that, avoiding a credibility nightmare. Morevoer, the unanimous decision shows some real political independence and that's a major sign of relief on many fronts. It also suggests a further collective appetite to hike that will make the final two meetings this year very interesting. For now, we're pricing in 28 bps in additional hikes this year compared to 26 bps beforehand. Finally, the comment in the statement about the US ... .. read more..
BOC summary of deliberations: Governing Council agreed near-term inflation li...
Wednesday, September 16,2026,17:32
Cited persistent high energy prices and Middle East conflict as reason market expectations for inflation had risen Members saw higher risk of inflation spreading to non-energy goods and services Members felt risks to July forecasts had become more acute Felt trade uncertainty had made growth prospects more uncertain The Bank of Canada held rates in September but the market is pricing in more than 100 bps in hikes in the coming year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. .. read more..
For reference: The July 29 FOMC statement
Wednesday, September 16,2026,17:27
Kevin Warsh is deliberately trying to signal less in the FOMC statement so the small details likely matter less. That said, it's always good practice to have one final read of the statement before a new one is released. Note that with a 9-3 vote, it wil only take two changes to get a rate hike. That said, if this comes out 5-4 in either direction, it will be trouble for markets. The July 29 statement: The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of... .. read more..
US Business inventories rise, exceeding expectations
Wednesday, September 16,2026,17:00
The latest data on U.S. business inventories has revealed a significant increase, according to the recent report released by the Commerce Department. Business inventories, which measure the change in the value of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers, have shown an actual rise of 0.8%. This figure surpasses the forecasted increase of 0.6%, ... .. read more..
Industrial production down by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU
Wednesday, September 16,2026,17:00
Overview In July 2026, compared with June 2026, seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU, according to first estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In June 2026, industrial production fell by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU. In ... .. read more..
Annual increase in labour costs at 3.1% in euro area
Wednesday, September 16,2026,17:00
Overview In the second quarter of 2026 the hourly labour costs rose by 3.1% in the euro area and by 3.2% in the EU, compared with the same quarter of the previous year. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. The two main components of labour costs are wages ... .. read more..
US Retail sales surge, surpassing expectations and previous figures
Wednesday, September 16,2026,17:00
Retail sales in the United States have recorded a significant increase, marking a robust indicator of consumer spending and economic activity. The latest data reveals that retail sales surged by 1.2%, showcasing a stronger-than-anticipated performance in the retail sector. This actual figure of 1.2% notably surpasses the forecasted growth of 0.8%. Analysts had expected a ... .. read more..
US Export Prices Rise More than Expected
Wednesday, September 16,2026,17:00
US export prices increased 0.6% month-over-month in August 2026, exceeding market expectations for a 0.5% rise and rebounding from a revised 1.4% decline in July. The increase was broad-based, with both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices advancing. Agricultural export prices rose 0.5% after a 0.4% gain in July, extending a period of monthly increases that ... .. read more..
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumps to 5.1% from 4.4%
Wednesday, September 16,2026,16:38
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model raised its estimate for third-quarter real GDP growth to an annualized 5.1%, up sharply from 4.4% on September 10. In their words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 5.1 percent on September 16, up from 4.4 percent on September 10. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 3.6 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 4.1 percent and 2.3 percent.. The... .. read more..
U.S. Business Inventories Climb Much More Than Expected In July
Wednesday, September 16,2026,14:43
A report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed business inventories in the U.S. increased by much more than expected in the month of July. The Commerce Department said business inventories climbed by 0.8 percent in July following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in June. Economists had expected business inventories to rise by 0.3 percent. .. read more..
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Edge Slightly Lower
Wednesday, September 16,2026,14:41
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. edged slightly lower in the week ended September 11th, according to a report released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. .. read more..
U.S. Housing Market Index Pulls Back To One-Year Low In September
Wednesday, September 16,2026,14:34
Homebuilder sentiment in the U.S. has deteriorated by much more than anticipated in the month of September, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Wednesday. The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index fell to 32 in September after inching up to 35 in August. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 34. .. read more..
FOMC preview: Warsh's credibility is on the line but there's a 91% chance it ...
Wednesday, September 16,2026,14:23
It's Fed day with the decision to be released at 2 pm ET and the press conference with Chairman Kevin Warsh starting 30 minutes later. This has the potential to be one that lands in the textbooks. It's the first real test of Warsh's political courage and independence. At Jackson Hole in August, he took a surprisingly hawkish line and that's led the market to price in a 91% chance of a rate hike, with 90 bps priced in for the year ahead. Those numbers rose in the past few weeks as US economic data beat expectations and inflation numbers were slightly higher than expected. Today, that sentiment was compounded by a retail sales report showing the closely-watched control group of core sales u... .. read more..
U.S. Import Prices Rebound More Than Expected In August
Wednesday, September 16,2026,14:20
A report released by the Labor Department on Wednesday showed import prices in the U.S. increased by much more than expected in the month of August. The Labor Department said import prices climbed by 0.7 percent in August after falling by a revised 0.3 percent in July. .. read more..
U.S. Retail Sales Jump 1.2% In August, Much More Than Expected
Wednesday, September 16,2026,14:05
Retail sales in the U.S. shot up by much more than expected in the month of August, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. The Commerce Department said retail sales jumped by 1.2 percent in August after falling by a revised 0.5 percent in July. Economists had expected retail sales to increase by 0.7 percent. .. read more..
U.S. Import Prices Climb Much More Than Expected In August
Wednesday, September 16,2026,12:38
A report released by the Labor Department on Wednesday showed import prices in the U.S. increased by much more than expected in the month of August. .. read more..
U.S. Retail Sales Jump Much More Than Expected In August
Wednesday, September 16,2026,12:36
Retail sales in the U.S. shot up by much more than expected in the month of August, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. .. read more..
Ireland Trade Surplus Grows In July
Wednesday, September 16,2026,11:55
Ireland's foreign trade surplus increased in July from a year ago as exports grew faster than imports. On an unadjusted basis, the trade surplus rose to EUR 5.3 billion in July from EUR 4.1 billion in the corresponding month last year. Exports logged an annual growth of 12.5 percent in July, and imports were 7.5 percent higher. .. read more..
UK Inflation Accelerates To 5-Month High
Wednesday, September 16,2026,11:52
UK consumer price inflation rose to a five-month high in August on renewed increase in fuel prices but the Bank of England is widely expected to hold the interest rate as energy shocks show no sign of broadening. Inflation advanced to 3.1 percent from 2.9 percent in July, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. The rate came in line with expectations. .. read more..
Fed rate decision: Warsh walks credibility tightrope as markets brace for rat...
Wednesday, September 16,2026,10:21
There is a lot riding on the Fed decision today, but perhaps nobody has more at stake than Kevin Warsh. He has only taken up the job for a few months now, but the Fed chair is already facing the kind of credibility test that can define a tenure. Markets are heavily pricing in a 25 bps rate hike today, with inflation still running too hot for comfort and the bond market having already done plenty of tightening on the Fed's behalf. It is now up to Warsh to do his part. The awkward part in all of this is that Warsh has deliberately tried to move away from the idea that the Fed should spoon-feed markets with forward guidance. He specifically outlined it as being a "hall-of-mirrors" ... .. read more..
Eurozone Industrial Production Shrinks For Second Month
Wednesday, September 16,2026,10:12
Eurozone industrial production declined for the second straight month in July, reflecting a weak start to the third quarter, official data revealed Wednesday. Industrial output edged down 0.1 percent in July, after falling at the same pace in June, Eurostat reported. Production was expected to decline 0.2 percent. .. read more..