US Middle East envoy Witkoff: Trump plan for Gaza is not an eviction plan for...
Thursday, February 20,2025,12:21
Israal Palestinian geopolitics, US middle East envoy Witkoff is on wires saying: Trump Gaza plan is not an eviction plan for Palestinians. Trump plan is about shaking up everyone's thinking, doing what is best for the Palestinian people On Trumps plan, do Palestinians want to live there, or do they want to settle in a better place with better prospects. Conversation has changed from just focusing on land, to how we get better life for people. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Extend Recent Surge
Thursday, February 20,2025,12:09
A report released by the Energy Information Administration on Thursday showed a continued surge by U.S. crude oil inventories in the week ended February 14th. .. read more..
Weekly crude oil inventory build of 4.633M vs estimate 3.144M
Thursday, February 20,2025,12:00
Crude oil 4.633M vs estimate of 3.144M. Gasoline -0.151M vs estimate of -0.006M Distillates -2.051M vs -1.634M estimate Cushing _1.472M vs a gain of 0.872M last week. The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude oil is trading at $72.75 adds up $0.66 or 0.92% The This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
European indices are closing the day with mixed results
Thursday, February 20,2025,11:58
Major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The worst performer is UK's FTSE 100. The best performer is Spain's Ibex. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX -93.10 points or -0.42% at 22340.54. France's CAC +12.04 points or 0.15% at 8122.59. UK's FTSE 100 -49.56 points or -0.57% at 8662.98. Spain's Ibex +37.70 points or 0.29% at 12967.09. Italy's FTSE MIB -99.13 points or -0.26% at 38249.02. As London/European traders had for the exits, the major US indices are lower: Dow industrial average -632.92 points or -1.42% at 43994.23. Walmart -6.20%, Goldman Sachs -4.72%, J.P. Morgan -4.21%, American Express -3.13%, and Boeing -2.9% are responsible for most of the ... .. read more..
Treasury Reveals Details Of Two-Year, Five-Year & Seven-Year Note Auctions
Thursday, February 20,2025,11:23
The Treasury Department on Thursday announced the details of this month's auctions of two-year, five-year and seven-year notes. .. read more..
U.S. Leading Economic Index Unexpectedly Decreases In January
Thursday, February 20,2025,11:09
Reversing most of the gains from the previous two months, the Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing an unexpected decrease by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of January. The Conference Board said its leading economic index fell by 0.3 percent in January following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in December. .. read more..
Euro Area Consumer Confidence Improves More Than Expected To Highest In 4 Months
Thursday, February 20,2025,10:28
Eurozone consumer confidence strengthened for a second straight month and at a faster than expected pace to its highest level in four months in February, suggesting that pessimism among households in the single currency bloc is easing despite the increasing threat of a tariff war with the U.S. .. read more..
US stocks not liking recent news
Thursday, February 20,2025,10:16
Major US stock indices are moving lower today. The NASDAQ index and Dow industrial are now down 1%. The S&P index is down -0.84%. The S&P index closed at a record level yesterday. So it is not all bad, but the declines are worth monitoring. Looking at the hourly chart of the S&P, the last price highs did not run very much. The topside trend line did a decent job of stalling the break to new highs yesterday. Today, the price is looking toward the rising 100 hour MA at 6068.53. A break below that MA today/going forward is a modest negative in the short-term technically. THe 200 hour MA at 6022. 91 would also need to be broken to increase the bearish bias. There have been some di... .. read more..
Philly Fed Index Pulls Back Sharply But Still Indicates Growth In February
Thursday, February 20,2025,10:14
Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity continued to expand in the month of February, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, although the index of activity in the sector pulled back sharply. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity plunged to 18.1 in February after skyrocketing to 44.3 in January. .. read more..
U.S. Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected To 219,000
Thursday, February 20,2025,10:12
A report released by the Labor Department showed a modest increase by first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended February 15th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose to 219,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level of 214,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 215,000. .. read more..
EU Consumer confidence flesh for February -13.6 versus -14.0 estimate
Thursday, February 20,2025,10:01
Prior month -14.2 EU consumer confidence flesh estimate for February -13.6% versus -14.0 estimate What is consistent, is the EU consumer confidence is always negative, but at -13.6 is nearer recent highs going back to 1H of 2022 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Leading index for January -0.3% versus -0.1% estimate
Thursday, February 20,2025,10:00
Prior month revised higher to 0.1% from -0.1% last month Leading index for January -0.3% versus -0.1% estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
GEOPOLITICs today: Zelenskiy meets with US envoy Kellogg. Putin talks with Sa...
Thursday, February 20,2025,09:57
Geopolitics is a hot topic with wars and tariff balls in the air. Ukraine's Zelenskiy met with US envoy Kellogg . There was no other comments from that meeting Russian Pres. Putin phone call with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince. Russia and Saudi Arabia will continue to cooperate closely within the framework of OPEC+ Israeli minister for strategic affairs is expected to meet with us envoy Witkoff to begin talks on the second phase of the Gaza hostage and cease-fire deal Mexico will broaden lawsuit in the US against arms manufacturers US commerce Sec.Lutnick says "tariffs wont cause inflation or recession" This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
US major indices off to a negative start
Thursday, February 20,2025,09:39
The major US stock indices are trading lower to start the new trading day: Dow industrial average: 44,488.78 down -138.81 or -0.31% S&P index: 6,127.78 down -16.37 or 0.27% NASDAQ index: 20,013.86 down -42.39 or -0.21% Russell 2000: 2,277.7680 down -4.6898, or 0.21% Looking at some of the stocks morning: Shares of Palantir are down another $8.24 or -7.45% at $103.55. Walmart shares are down $6.30 a -6.03% at $97.72 after reporting earnings. Disappointing guidance is contributing to the fall. Costco shares are down in sympathy (-2.22%) Meta is up $1.37 or 0.20% at $705.08 after two days of sharp declines. The declines came after 20 days of closing higher. Nvidia Price Target raised by ... .. read more..
Slovenia Consumer Confidence Weakens For Second Month
Thursday, February 20,2025,09:28
Consumer sentiment in Slovenia eroded for a second straight month, signaling rising pessimism among households as their expectations regarding the economy and personal finances declined, survey data from the statistical office showed on Thursday. .. read more..
US stocks lower in premarket trading. Yesterday the S&P closed at a new record.
Thursday, February 20,2025,09:26
The major indices closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 gained 0.24%, marking a record close for the index. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ posted a modest gain of 0.7%. In late news, Palantir shares saw a sharp decline of -10.08% after President Trump directed the Pentagon to reduce defense spending by 8%. Despite Palantir’s software being seen as an efficiency investment, the stock, which had surged nearly 100% from its January 13 low to a high of $125.41 yesterday, experienced a typical pullback. As of today, Palantir shares are down an additional -3.36%, currently trading at $108.30. A snapshot of the premarket levels implied by the futures currently shows: Dow industrial average -142 points... .. read more..
Croatian Jobless Rate Rises To 5.4%, Highest In 9 Months
Thursday, February 20,2025,09:25
Croatia's unemployment rate increased further in January to the highest level in nine months. The registered jobless rate rose to 5.4 percent in January from 5.1 percent in December. Further, this was the highest unemployment rate since April, when it was 5.6 percent. There were 97,341 registered unemployed people in January, compared to 91,563 in December. .. read more..
Trump: BALANCE BUDGET NOW??? LETS GIVE IT S A SHOT. LOTS OF MONEY COMING IN ...
Thursday, February 20,2025,09:21
Pres. Trump is on social media exclaiming in all capitals: BALANCE BUGET NOW??? LETS GIVE IT A SHOT. LOTS OF MONEY COMIN IN FROM TARIFFS. DO IT! DJT. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
EU trade chief: EU is seeking common ground in talks with US
Thursday, February 20,2025,09:17
The EU trade chief Sefcovic is speaking and says: EU is seeking currently grounded in talks with US. Discussing car industry to quite an extent. Tariff reciprocity must work for both sides and EU ready to look at lower industrial tariffsis Told US counterparts to not focus on measures and countermeasures. Overall US tariffs are slightly higher than EU tariffs Saw some openness from US to lower tariffs scheduled meeting with European auto industry on Friday This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Belgium Consumer Confidence Improves In February
Thursday, February 20,2025,09:04
Belgian consumer sentiment index rose to a 5-month high of -4.0 in February from -11.0 in the previous month. The improvement in February was due to a sharp drop in concern over worsening unemployment and less pessimistic expectations for the economic situation in Belgium. Concerns over worsening unemployment also decreased significantly, with the respective index falling to 8 from 32. .. read more..
Poland Industrial Output Shrinks, Producer Prices Fall At Slower Rate
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:44
Poland's industrial production decreased more than expected in January after rebounding the previous month, and producer prices continued their falling trend. Industrial production fell 1.0 percent year-over-year in January, reversing a 0.2 percent rise in December. Meanwhile, economists had expected a larger decline of 1.4 percent. .. read more..
Philly Fed Index Pulls Back Sharply In February
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:43
Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity continued to expand in the month of February, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, although the index of activity in the sector pulled back sharply. .. read more..
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:36
A report released by the Labor Department showed a modest increase by first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended February 15th. .. read more..
Canada January producer price index +1.6% m/m vs +0.2% expected
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:30
Prior was +0.2% PPI y/y +5.8% vs +4.1% prior Raw materials price index +3.7% m/m vs +1.3% prior Raw materials price index +11.8% y/y vs +9.1% prior The softening Canadian dollar has been a problem for commodity price inflation. Fortunately it's levelled off in February. The Bank of Canada has its hands full at the moment. Between this, the HST holiday, a looming election and tariff threats, there is so much noise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Philadelphia Fed Business index for February 18,1 vs 20.0 estimate
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:30
Prior month 44.3 (the expectation was for -5.2....The result may have been influenced by the election) Manufacturing index for February 18.1 vs 20.0 estimate Details: 6 month index 27.8 vs 46.3 last month. Capex index 6-month forward 14.0 vs 39.0 last month employment 5.3 vs 11.9 last month Prices paid 40.5 vs 31.9 last month New Orders 21.9 vs 42.9 last month Shipments 26.3 versus 41.0 last month. Unfilled orders 1.4 versus 24.0 last month delivery time 12.4 versus 6.8 last month. Inventories -0.4 versus 11.7 last month. Average workweek 2.9 versus 20.5 last month. For 6 month forward: New orders 33.1 versus 57.3 last month. Shipments 36.5 versus 60.2 last month unfilled orders 11.0 vers... .. read more..
Philadelphia Fed Business index for February 18.1 vs 20.0 estimate
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:30
Prior month 44.3 (the expectation was for -5.2....The result may have been influenced by the election) Manufacturing index for February 18.1 vs 20.0 estimate Details: 6 month index 27.8 vs 46.3 last month. Capex index 6-month forward 14.0 vs 39.0 last month employment 5.3 vs 11.9 last month Prices paid 40.5 vs 31.9 last month New Orders 21.9 vs 42.9 last month Shipments 26.3 versus 41.0 last month. Unfilled orders 1.4 versus 24.0 last month delivery time 12.4 versus 6.8 last month. Inventories -0.4 versus 11.7 last month. Average workweek 2.9 versus 20.5 last month. For 6 month forward: New orders 33.1 versus 57.3 last month. Shipments 36.5 versus 60.2 last month unfilled orders 11.0 vers... .. read more..
Canada January new housing price index -0.1% vs -0.1% prior
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:30
Prior was -0.1% There is growing worry about the health of the Canadian housing market, particularly in Ontario. Listings are surging despite poor, snowy weather and there haven't been the sales to match. The condo market is a disaster in Toronto but it's not clear if the pain will spread beyond that. The spring market will be key. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
US initial jobless claims 219K vs 215K estimate
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:30
Prior week initial claims 213K revised to 214K Initial jobless claims 219K vs 215K 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 215.25 versus 216.25 last week Prior week initial jobless claims 1.850M revised to 1.845 million Continuing claims 1.869 vs 1.871M estimate 4 -week MA continuing claims 1.863M versus 1.870M last week This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
A grab bag of North American economic data is coming up
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:15
Good morning from snowy, frozen Canada. We have a four-pack of economic data releases due at the bottom of the hour: Initial jobless claims Philly Fed Canadian PPI Canadian new housing price index There has been some hand-wringing about pricing numbers in the regional Fed manufacturing surveys but the main release to watch is initial jobless claims, which are expected at 215K from 213K prior. In the Philly Fed, expect tariff worries and front-running of possible costs to be a big skew. Later we get weekly oil inventories, a 30-year TIPS auction and comments from the Fed's Goolsbee at 935 pm ET and Musalem at 12:05 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY flirts with break of 150.00 level
Thursday, February 20,2025,08:04
Headlines: USD/JPY heavy, eyes test of 150.00 level Gold homes in on the $3,000 mark Weekly update on interest rate expectations BOE odds hardly changed after the UK CPI report yesterday ECB's Simkus: I agree with expectations of 3 more cuts in 2025 PBOC says will step up analysis of macro economic and financial work US Treasury secretary Bessent: I don't want others to manipulate their currencies Germany January PPI -0.1% vs +0.6% m/m expected Switzerland January trade balance CHF 6.12 billion vs CHF 3.49 billion prior Markets: JPY leads, USD lags on the day European equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.3% US 10-year yields down 2.6 bps to 4.509% Gold up 0.4% to $2,944.97 WTI crud... .. read more..
Taiwan Export Orders Fall 3.0%
Thursday, February 20,2025,07:38
Taiwan's export orders fell 3.0 percent year-over-year in January, reversing a 20.8 percent surge in December. The expected drop was 1.8 percent. Orders for basic metals and related items decreased the most by 21.7 percent, followed by orders for plastics, rubber and related products, which slumped by 20.5 percent. On a monthly basis, export orders declined sharply by 11.2 percent. .. read more..
US Treasury secretary Bessent: I don't want others to manipulate their curren...
Thursday, February 20,2025,07:23
US has a strong dollar policy But don't want others to manipulate their currencies China's yuan is hard to value But on any academic model, the yuan is cheap Aims to tell China to rebalance their economy Will have first call with China counterpart tomorrow Revaluing gold reserves is not what I had in mind Haven't seen Europe cut auto tariffs yet Interestingly enough, he says that the Fed has overdone it with their rate cut in September last year. But then again, Trump wants more rate cuts by the Fed now. So, what's the picking point here? As for the yuan, the lack of steep tariffs by Trump has allowed China to keep their currency steadier since the turn of the year. USD/CNY had been on th... .. read more..
UK Manufacturers Expect Output To Rise In February: CBI
Thursday, February 20,2025,07:18
UK manufacturers expect production to increase in the three months to May, the Industrial Trends Survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed on Thursday. .. read more..
Irish Inflation Climbs To 6-month High
Thursday, February 20,2025,07:01
Ireland's consumer price inflation accelerated further at the start of the year to the highest level in six months. The consumer price index climbed 1.9 percent year-over-year in January, faster than the 1.4 percent rise in December. nflation based on transportation also rose to 3.9 percent from 1.6 percent. Expenses in connection with restaurants and hotels also grew 3.9 percent. .. read more..
Hong Kong Inflation Rises To 2.0%
Thursday, February 20,2025,06:31
Hong Kong's consumer price inflation increased more than expected in January after remaining steady in the previous two months. The consumer price index, or CPI, climbed 2.0 percent year-over-year in January, faster than the 1.4 percent rise in December. Economists had expected inflation to rise to 1.8 percent. Underlying inflation was 1.6 percent versus 1.3 percent in December. .. read more..
Potential impact of Trump policies stirring inflation concerns at Fed, minute...
Thursday, February 20,2025,06:00
President Donald Trump’s initial policy proposals raised concern at the Federal Reserve about higher inflation, with firms telling the U.S. central bank they generally expected to raise prices to pass along the cost of import tariffs, policymakers said at a meeting held about a week after Trump’s January 20 inauguration. Participants at the U.S. central ... .. read more..
Can China come out on top in a US trade war?
Thursday, February 20,2025,06:00
Less than one month into US President Donald Trump’s second term, and the first salvos in a potential new trade war between the United States and China are already being fired, with tit-for-tat tariffs and the threat of lasting economic consequences on both sides. After the US imposed a sweeping 10% tariff on all Chinese ... .. read more..
Reciprocal tariffs are on, but VAT is the bigger elephant in the room
Thursday, February 20,2025,06:00
The next stage in trade escalation: reciprocal tariffs and targeting VAT While new tariff announcements were eagerly awaited, Trump instead directed key government officials to investigate the complex task of applying reciprocal tariffs, where a country matches the tariffs imposed by another country. The responsible ministers have until 1 April to submit their reports, and ... .. read more..
ECB's Simkus: I agree with expectations of 3 more cuts in 2025
Thursday, February 20,2025,05:58
I agree with expectations of 3 more cuts in 2025. The direction of travel is clear. Next move is clear. I don't see any good reason not to cut in March. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Denmark GDP Growth Improves In Q4
Thursday, February 20,2025,05:47
The Danish economy expanded at an accelerated pace in the final quarter of 2024, largely on the back of the pharmaceutical industry. Gross domestic product advanced 1.6 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter, following a 1.3 percent expansion in the third quarter. Exports grew 4.6 percent amid more demand for outflows from the pharmaceutical industry and maritime transport. .. read more..
Eurozone Construction Output Remains Flat In December
Thursday, February 20,2025,05:40
Eurozone construction output remained flat at the end of the year, data from Eurostat showed on Thursday. .. read more..
Gold homes in on the $3,000 mark
Thursday, February 20,2025,05:29
The precious metal is trading up today to record highs, seen at $2,953 at the moment. It is now poised for another week of gains and that will make it eight on the trot to start the new year. The latest gains are coming as the dollar is also slightly weaker but amid persisting geopolitical tensions and central bank buying, it's hard to find a case against gold still. The next target? The $3,000 mark of course. That's the big one in terms of a psychological barrier for the precious metal. After having touched the previous big one of $2,000 during the Covid pandemic, gold struggled to really break the shackles until last year. That's a lengthy period of bouncing around in the last few years... .. read more..
Weekly update on interest rate expectations
Thursday, February 20,2025,04:15
Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 39 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 72 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 49 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (66% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 40 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBNZ: 59 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 27 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoJ: 36 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Turkish Consumer Confidence Strengthens In February
Thursday, February 20,2025,04:13
Turkey's consumer confidence rose to the highest level since June 2023, the consumer tendency survey carried out in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey showed on Thursday. .. read more..
Singapore Wholesale Trade Falls 4.4% In Q4
Thursday, February 20,2025,03:50
Singapore wholesale trade declined a seasonally adjusted 4.4 percent yearly in the fourth quarter, though slower than the 6.9 percent fall in the previous quarter. Excluding petroleum, domestic wholesale sales fell 0.7 percent, reversing a 1.0 percent growth in the third quarter. Domestic sales of the industrial and construction machinery fell the most with 22.6 percent. .. read more..
European indices hold slightly higher at the open today
Thursday, February 20,2025,03:16
Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.3% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX +0.5% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% This follows the setback from yesterday, which threatens the winning streak for European equities at the start of this year. Trump meddling around with the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a cause of concern, especially after labelling Zelenskyy as a dictator yesterday. That will again continue to be something to watch in the day ahead, alongside ongoing tariff developments of course. US futures are lagging though, so that's also something to consider with S&P 500 futures down 0.3% currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
German Producer Price Inflation Softens In January
Thursday, February 20,2025,03:03
Germany's producer prices registered a slower growth in January, data from Destatis showed on Thursday. .. read more..
Swiss Trade Surplus Falls Amid Weaker Exports
Thursday, February 20,2025,02:51
Switzerland's foreign trade surplus decreased in January from a month earlier as exports fell faster than imports. The trade surplus declined to CHF 4.0 billion in January from CHF 4.3 billion in December. In real terms, exports dropped 3.9 percent monthly, reversing a 5.4 percent rebound in December. Imports fell 1.9 percent after rising 4.7 percent in the prior month. .. read more..
Malaysian Trade Surplus Shrinks Sharply
Thursday, February 20,2025,02:36
The Malaysian foreign trade surplus increased sharply in January from a year ago as imports grew faster than exports. The trade surplus dropped to MYR 3.6 billion in January from MYR 10.1 billion in the same month last year. The surplus also decreased from MYR 19.1 billion in December. The expected surplus was MYR 14.1 billion. .. read more..
What are the main events for today?
Thursday, February 20,2025,02:34
The European session is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. The only highlight today is the US Jobless Claims data in the American session. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims continue to hover around cycle highs although we’ve seen some easing recently. This week Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs. 213K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1871K vs. 1850K prior. Central bank speakers: 09:00 GMT... .. read more..