Trump: Zelenskiy should not target Moscow
Tuesday, July 15,2025,12:59
Trump is speaking and says: Zelenskiy should not target Moscow. (the coming comes after a FT article implying that Trump asked Zelinski if he would use missiles to target Moscow) I am on nobody side. I want to stop the killing. Indonesia will pay 19% tariff and we will pay nothing. Similar deals are in the works. We will get full access into Indonesia. Expects to see UK's Starmer in Scotland and refine trade deal We are going to see what happens with Pres. Putin This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Canada Prime Minister Carney: US tariffs may be here to stay
Tuesday, July 15,2025,12:48
Canada Prime Minister Carney is speaking to the Wall Street Journal and says: US tariffs may be here to stay There is a lot of evidence right now with regard to negotiations of any country or jurisdiction escaping US tariffs Trump is enjoying the $$$ coming in and hoping that inflation is not persistent but just a one off. So I would agree that going to zero is not going to happen. The US will be charging Canada 35% effective August 1. There probably is some wiggle room but my guess is that tariffs settle between 10 and 20% generally speaking. Trump hopes for companies to absorb most of that rise and going forward and inflation studies. He views the tariffs as being a tax for doing busine... .. read more..
Lutnick: China chip sales were part of the rare earth magnets agreement
Tuesday, July 15,2025,12:14
Commerce Sec. Howard let Nick is on CNBC and says that: China chip sales were part of rare earth magnets agreement Want to keep one step ahead of what China can build so they keep buying our chips. Working hard to make sure world uses US standards for AI. Says that US not charging tariffs on raw steel just the finished item. For 80 years tariffs were on America. Industries went overseas. Trump is reversing the trend on tariffs. We go the deals done. Trump makes the deals and the best deals for the American people. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
European indices closed lower day. Spain's Ibex -1.15%
Tuesday, July 15,2025,12:01
Major European indices are closing the day lower. The declines are led by Spain's Ibex which fell -1.15%.. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, -0.35% France's CAC, -0.54% UK's FTSE 100 -0.66% Spain's Ibex -1.15% Italy's FTSE MIB -0.66% As London/European traders exit for the day, US indices are mixed.: Dow industrial average -254 points or -0.57% S&P index unchanged at 6268.00 NASDAQ index +143.91 points or 0.70% at 20786.86 The small-cap Russell 2000 remains under pressure with a decline of -21.69 points or -0.96% at 2228.02. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
S&P index turns into negative territory
Tuesday, July 15,2025,10:58
The major US indices have given up gains. The S&P is now trading in negative territory. The NASDAQ index is still higher but trading at session lows. The Dow industrial average is down now 300 points or -0.67% at 44160. At session highs the index was up 44.62 points. S&P index is -7.19 points or -0.12% at 6261.98. At session highs the index was up 33.48 points. NASDAQ index is up 95 points or 0.46% at 20736.40. At session highs the index is up 195.71 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -20.80 points or -0.92% at 2228.88.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Mexico Sheinbaum: Mexico will announce other measures if an agreement w/US is...
Tuesday, July 15,2025,10:55
The Mexican president Sheinbaum, is fighting back a little: Mexico will announce other measures if an agreement with the US on new tariffs is not reached by August 1. She disagrees with US duties imposed on tomatoes Yesterday she implied that they were doing what they can against the drug cartels, and that the US needed to do its share. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Trump says Federal Reserve should lower interest rates by 3 points
Tuesday, July 15,2025,10:53
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday released June inflation data, showing prices increased from the prior month. Hours later, President Trump called on the Fed to lower rates. .. read more..
Denmark Producer Price Inflation Eases To 8.4%
Tuesday, July 15,2025,10:25
Denmark's producer price inflation moderated in June to the lowest level in eight months. The producer price index climbed 8.4 percent year-on-year in June, slower than the 9.2 percent rise in May. The slowdown in inflation was mainly driven by a renewed 3.1 percent fall in prices for the utility sector. .. read more..
New York Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Indicates Growth In July
Tuesday, July 15,2025,09:43
New York manufacturing activity has seen a notable turnaround in the month of July, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index surged to a positive 5.5 in July from a negative 16.0 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth. Economists had expected the index to rise to a negative 10.0. .. read more..
Broader US indices are opening higher
Tuesday, July 15,2025,09:41
Major US indices are trading higher with the NASDAQ and S&P both at record levels. Dow industrial average is the laggard with 19 of the 30 stocks lower. Nvidia shares are higher by $7.81 or 4.81% at $172. The high price reached $172.26. The U.S. government will again allow Nvidia to ship powerful AI chips to China in a key reversal. The likes of J.P. Morgan and Citigroup announced the earnings today ahead of the opening which were better than expectations at Wells Fargo and BlackRock also be expectations handily. Despite the better earnings, the shares are still lower. BlackRock -6.08% Wells Fargo -4.93% J.P. Morgan -0.80% Citigroup is the lone wolf with a gain of 0.77% The US CPI dat... .. read more..
U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.3% In June, In Line With Estimates
Tuesday, July 15,2025,09:39
The Labor Department released a report on Tuesday showing consumer prices in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of June. The report said the consumer price index rose by 0.3 percent in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in May. .. read more..
WH: Call between Trump and Zelenskyy was misinterpretted
Tuesday, July 15,2025,09:33
Earlier today, the Financial Times reported , President Trump reportedly asked Ukrainian President Zelensky during a July 4th call whether Ukraine could strike Moscow if the U.S. supplied long-range weapons. Zelensky is said to have responded affirmatively, stating, “Absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons.” Trump reportedly signaled support for the idea as a means to pressure Russia into negotiations and encouraged Zelensky to intensify deep strikes on Russian territory. The White House is now saying that the call between Trump and Zelensky was misinterpreted. The was merely asking a question. HMMM. If you ask a question, you are looking for an answer. Pres. Trump announced a deal ... .. read more..
American energy revival takes shape as GE Vernova pours millions into Pennsyl...
Tuesday, July 15,2025,08:59
Energy company GE Vernova expands Pennsylvania operations with an $80 million investment, adding 250 jobs at its Charleroi facility for electric grid infrastructure. .. read more..
New York Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Turns Positive In July
Tuesday, July 15,2025,08:45
New York manufacturing activity has seen a notable turnaround in the month of July, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday. .. read more..
U.S. Consumer Prices Rise In Line With Estimates In June
Tuesday, July 15,2025,08:40
The Labor Department released a report on Tuesday showing consumer prices in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of June. .. read more..
Budget airline Avelo shutting down West Coast operations
Tuesday, July 15,2025,08:39
Avelo Airlines is closing its Southern California operations to focus on East Coast growth, allowing affected passengers to get full refunds. .. read more..
Inflation accelerated in June as the Fed weighs the impact of tariffs in rate...
Tuesday, July 15,2025,08:32
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index (CPI), a popular inflation gauge, increased in June to 2.7% on an annual basis as prices rose for consumers. .. read more..
US June core CPI YoY 2.9% vs 3.0% estimate.
Tuesday, July 15,2025,08:30
Prior month CPI MoM 0.1%. Core 0.1% Prior month CPI YoY 2.4%. Core 2.8% CPI MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% estimate CPI Core MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate CPI YoY 2,7% vs 2.4% last month CPI Core YoY 2.9% vs 2.8% last month Unrounded: CPI unrounded: 0.287% vs 0.081% last month. Core unrounded 0.228% vs +0.130% last month Details Headline CPI (M/M): +0.2% in June Shelter: +0.2% — primary driver of monthly increase Energy: +0.9% Gasoline: +1.0% Food: +0.3% Food at home: +0.3% Food away from home: +0.4% Core CPI (ex-food & energy, M/M): +0.2% in June (vs. +0.1% in May) Increased: Household furnishings, medical care, recreation, apparel, personal care Decreased: Used cars & trucks, new vehicles, airlin... .. read more..
Canada June CPI +1.9% y/y vs +1.9% expected
Tuesday, July 15,2025,08:30
Prior month +1.7% CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% expected. Last month +0.6% Core CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.6% last month Core CPI y/y +2.7% vs +2.5% last month CPI Median y/y +3.1% vs +3.0% expected. Last month +3.0% CPI Trim +3.0% vs +3.0% expected. Last month +3.0% CPI Common +2.6% vs +2.6% last month These figures won't change anything in terms of market pricing and the BoC will remain on the sidelines as they gather more information. Of note, prices for durable goods accelerated on a year-over-year basis; they rose 2.7% in June after increasing 2.0% in May. This is also what's been happening in the US due to tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Croatia Inflation Unrevised At 3.7%
Tuesday, July 15,2025,08:10
Consumer price inflation in Croatia increased as initially estimated in June to its highest level in four months. The consumer price index rose 3.7 percent year-on-year in June following a 3.5 percent increase in May. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages grew 5.8 percent from last year, and those of housing and utilities climbed by 5.2 percent. .. read more..
Forexlive European FX news wrap: Awaiting the US CPI release
Tuesday, July 15,2025,07:34
US Bessent: I wouldn't put too much emphasis on one inflation number What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? EU Spokesperson: EU has no intention to retaliate before August 1 Kremlin says Putin will respond to Trump comments if necessary What are the interest rates expectations ahead of the US CPI? Germany July ZEW current conditions -59.5 vs -66.0 expected Eurozone May industrial production +1.7% vs +0.9% m/m expected A round up of the estimates ahead of the US CPI report later ECB's Radev: I value prudence, data-dependence and a strong anti-inflationary bias Spain June final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelim What are the main events for today? BofA FMS: Investors most overweig... .. read more..
US Bessent: I wouldn't put too much emphasis on one inflation number
Tuesday, July 15,2025,07:07
It is important to look at trend, inflation not accelerating I haven't seen today's CPI figures yet. Trump said many times he's not going to fire Powell. The Fed had big forecasting errors and there may be one now. Independent central bank very important for policy. The formal process for Powell successor already started. There are a lot of good candidates in and outside of the Fed. Successor pick will happen at Trump's speed. We're in a good place on China now. I expect to meet Chinese counterpart in next few weeks. The Fed and high ranking officials get to see the data the evening before the release. Nonetheless, they refrain from making comments or statements ahead of the actual releas... .. read more..
Red state success story: Texas and Florida metros lead nation in economic and...
Tuesday, July 15,2025,07:00
Austin, Texas, stood out as the fastest-growing metro, with eight of the 10 most booming metros being located in the South, according to a new LendingTree report. .. read more..
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
Tuesday, July 15,2025,06:56
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect. CPI Y/Y 2.8% (2%) 2.7% (47%) - consensus 2.6% (43%) 2.5% (6%) 2.4% (2%) CPI M/M 0.4% (6%) 0.3% (65%) - consensus 0.2% (25%) 0.1% (4%) Core CPI Y/Y 3.1% (2%) 3.0% (49%) - consensus 2.9% (45%) 2.8% (4%) Core ... .. read more..
Spain Inflation Rises More Than Estimated To 2.3%
Tuesday, July 15,2025,06:53
Spain's inflation rose more than estimated in June, final data from the statistical office INE showed on Tuesday. .. read more..
Bulgaria Inflation Rises To 18-month High
Tuesday, July 15,2025,06:47
Bulgaria's consumer price inflation increased further in June to the highest level in one-and-a-half years. The consumer price index, or CPI, climbed 4.4 percent year-over-year in June, faster than the 3.7 percent rise in May. The annual price growth in food and non-alcoholic beverages accelerated to 7.5 percent from 6.9 percent in April. .. read more..
EU Spokesperson: EU has no intention to retaliate before August 1
Tuesday, July 15,2025,06:32
EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic will talk with US Trade Representative Greer this early evening The EU has no intention to move forward with any trade countermeasures before August 1 Also comments from German Chancellor Merz: The goal is a quick solution, I am in close contact with Trump and Von Der Leyen The EU is refraining from counter measures for now, but US should not underestimate willingness to respond The threat of 30% tariffs on EU was of course ignored by the markets given the August 1 deadline and the usual TACO trade. Markets opened lower yesterday but eventually closed with gains. Everyone got used to Trump's empty threats. To scare the market, Trump would need to place tarif... .. read more..
Kremlin says Putin will respond to Trump comments if necessary
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:55
Trump's statement is serious, we need time to analyse it Decisions by Washington and Brussels are seen by Ukraine as a signal to continue the war Russia is ready for next round of talks with Ukraine But there have been no proposals from the Ukrainian side so far In case you missed it, Trump's statement from yesterday here . Interestingly, the FT is also out in the past hour reporting that Trump had asked if Ukraine could intensify strikes against Russia here (may be gated). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
German Economic Sentiment Strengthens In July
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:55
German economic sentiment improved more than expected in July on hopes of a quick resolution to the US-EU tariff dispute and potential stimulus from the federal government, a monthly survey conducted by the think tank ZEW showed on Tuesday. .. read more..
Eurozone Industrial Output Recovers In May
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:26
Eurozone industrial production recovered in May, underpinned by strong rebound in non-durable consumer goods output, data from Eurostat showed on Tuesday. .. read more..
What are the interest rates expectations ahead of the US CPI?
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:22
Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 48 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 23 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 58 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 21 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 56 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBNZ: 33 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 9 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoJ: 14 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) We haven't seen much change in the past days as traders await the US CPI data. The NFP took the market back to the real... .. read more..
China’s economy slows as consumers tighten belts, US tariff risks mount
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:00
China’s economy slowed less than expected in the second quarter in a show of resilience against U.S. tariffs, though analysts warn that weak demand at home and rising global trade risks will ramp up pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus. The world’s No. 2 economy has so far avoided a sharp slowdown in ... .. read more..
Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Russian export buyers unless Ukraine peace de...
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:00
President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose “secondary tariffs” on Russia’s trade partners “at about 100%” if President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a deal to end his invasion of Ukraine in 50 days. “We’re very, very unhappy with them, and we’re going to be doing very severe tariffs, if you don’t have ... .. read more..
Aggregate financing strength masks weak credit demand in China
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:00
China’s new aggregate financing rose 27.3% YoY in the first half of the year, up to RMB 22.83tr. While the aggregate financing growth looks quite impressive at first glance, it is mainly base effect driven, caused by a particularly weak 2024, as well as being tied to an uptick in bond issuance and IPO activity, ... .. read more..
Why Trump’s push for a 1% Fed policy rate could spell trouble for US economy
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:00
U.S. President Donald Trump says the Federal Reserve should set its benchmark interest rate at 1% to lower government borrowing costs, allowing the administration to finance the high and rising deficits expected from his spending and tax-cut bill. Trump should be careful what he wishes for. A Fed policy rate that low is not typically ... .. read more..
Germany July ZEW current conditions -59.5 vs -66.0 expected
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:00
Prior -72.0 Economic sentiment 52.7 vs 50.3 expected Prior 47.5 The positive upturn in sentiment is firming even more as we get into Q3. ZEW notes that despite ongoing global uncertainty, nearly two-thirds of respondents expect the German economy to continue to improve. Adding that hopes for a quick resolution to the US-EU trade dispute and economic stimulus from the German government are helping to underpin the overall mood. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
EU to push for deal with U.S, to avoid prohibitive tariff
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:00
European Union ministers agreed to prioritise negotiations with the United States to avoid threatened 30% tariffs that the EU trade chief said would wreck transatlantic trade. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose 30% tariffs on most EU imports from August 1, though diplomats say there is still time to hammer out ... .. read more..
Fed’s Hammack sees no urgent reason to lower rates
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:00
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Monday she sees no imminent need to lower interest rates right now given that inflation is still too high, amid ongoing uncertainty about how trade tariffs will affect price pressures. “We’re pretty close to where the neutral rate is and so I see an economy ... .. read more..
Eurozone May industrial production +1.7% vs +0.9% m/m expected
Tuesday, July 15,2025,05:00
Prior -2.4%; revised to -2.2% Looking at the breakdown, the big jump largely comes from an increase in energy production (+3.7%). Taking that out, there were still good increases in output for capital goods (+2.7%) and non-durable consumer goods (+8.5%) on the month. That is offset slightly by declines in output for intermediate goods (-1.7%) and durable consumer goods (-1.9%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
A round up of the estimates ahead of the US CPI report later
Tuesday, July 15,2025,04:54
It's been a bit of a quieter one in European trading so far with the dollar just a touch lower after the steadier showing in the past few sessions. All eyes are on the US CPI report, with the potential for the core inflation estimate to undershoot as noted here . But what are the analysts saying about the numbers going into the release? Let's take a look (h/t @ MNI). BofA- Core CPI estimate of 0.25% m/m- "A notable acceleration from the recent trend"- "Stronger price hikes for core goods, discretionary services, and medical services should drive the pickup in core inflation"- Sees core PCE print coming in at 0.22% m/m though, which would "lower the likelihood of a September cut" Goldman S... .. read more..
Poland Inflation Confirmed At 4.1%
Tuesday, July 15,2025,04:34
Poland's consumer price inflation increased slightly as initially estimated in June. The consumer price index climbed 4.1 percent year-over-year in June, slightly faster than the 4.0 percent in May. That was in line with the flash data published on June 30. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages grew 4.9 percent annually in June, and housing and utility costs surged by 10.5 percent. .. read more..
ECB's Radev: I value prudence, data-dependence and a strong anti-inflationary...
Tuesday, July 15,2025,04:23
In policymaking I value prudence, data-dependence, and a strong anti-inflationary bias June ECB cut has clearly shifted the stance Temporary inflation undershoot possible, but wage and services pressures are evident Radev is the Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank. From 1 January 2026 the Bulgarian National Bank will become a full member of the Eurosystem. These comments suggest he's a hawk at heart. Bulgaria experienced severe hyperinflation in 1996-1997, therefore much like the Germans, they care more about overshoots rather than undershoots on the inflation target. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
China GDP Growth Tops Expectations
Tuesday, July 15,2025,03:56
China's economy registered a faster-than-expected growth in the second quarter with strong support from exports and industrial production despite the US trade tariff threats but weaker investment and persistent deflation continued to pose challenges. Gross domestic product expanded 5.2 percent on a yearly basis after rising 5.4 percent in the previous quarter. .. read more..
Slovakia Inflation Rises To 4.3%, Highest In 18 Months
Tuesday, July 15,2025,03:53
Slovakia's consumer price inflation accelerated in June to the highest level in one-and-a-half years. Consumer prices rose 4.3 percent annually in June, faster than the 4.1 percent rise in May. The annual price growth in food and non-alcoholic beverages accelerated to 4.2 percent from 3.9 percent. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2 percent. .. read more..
European indices just a little higher at the open, eyes on US inflation data
Tuesday, July 15,2025,03:14
Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% Trade developments will be put on hold for the day ahead, as we await the negotiations between the EU and US by the 1 August deadline. The latest headlines here suggest that there is still quite a gap to bridge, so we'll see what comes from the discussions over the next two weeks. The best case scenario is for a makeshift deal as negotiations drag on further but I still wouldn't hold my breath in expecting that any time soon. For today, eyes will be on the US CPI report instead. S&P 500 futures are also seen higher, up 0.3% currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.fo... .. read more..
Hungary Industrial Output Falls As Estimated
Tuesday, July 15,2025,03:13
Hungary's industrial output continued to decline as initially estimated in May.The volume of industrial production fell a working-day-adjusted 2.6 percent annually in May, following a 2.3 percent decrease a month ago. Among subsectors, manufacturing output contracted 2.7 percent, and mining and quarrying output was 7.4 percent lower compared to last year. .. read more..
Spain June final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
Tuesday, July 15,2025,03:00
Prior +2.0% HICP +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.0% Core annual inflation, the more important reading, remains unchanged compared to May at 2.2%. This just helps to reaffirm the ECB decision to stay on pause through the summer. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Romanian Industrial Production Grows 3.7%
Tuesday, July 15,2025,02:49
Romania's industrial output expanded for the first time in four months in May. Industrial production logged a seasonally and working-day adjusted increase of 3.7 percent year-over-year in May, reversing a 2.1 percent decline in April. Manufacturing output surged 7.5 percent annually in May, and electricity production was 7.0 percent higher. .. read more..
What are the main events for today?
Tuesday, July 15,2025,02:36
In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the German ZEW. This indicator showed a big rebound in the last month amid easing trade war fears, ECB rate cuts and expansionary fiscal measures. The optimism remains high. Whatever the indicator is going to show, it won't change anything for the market or the ECB at the moment. In the American session, we get the Canadian CPI and the US CPI. The Canadian Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs 3.0% prior. This is the most important data for the BoC as it measures underlying inflation. The market sees 21 bps of easing by year-end, but given the improving labour market data, even if we get a touch softer figures, the... .. read more..
BOJ's cautious stance adds to bond market volatility
Tuesday, July 15,2025,02:35
Investors in Japanese government bonds are on edge ahead of the upcoming upper house elections, with mounting worries over fiscal discipline pushing long-term yields to multi-decade highs. .. read more..