Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
Overview The euro area annual inflation rate was 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 2.2%. European Union annual inflation was 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6%. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of ... .. read more..
EU moves to block single market to counter China, widen import curbs
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
The European Union (EU) has decided to push for the creation of trade response powers that could completely block foreign-made products such as those from China from entering the EU single market. The EU single market is an integrated economic area built to allow goods, services, capital, and people to move freely so that member ... .. read more..
NY Services Activity Drops the Most in 7 Months
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
The New York Fed’s Services Business Activity Index fell to -20.7 in October 2026 from -8.7 in September, marking its lowest level since March as business activity contracted at a faster pace. The business climate index was little changed at -35.0, with just over half of respondents describing conditions as worse than normal. Employment was ... .. read more..
US Capacity Utilization Tops Forecasts
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
Industrial capacity utilization in the US rose to 76.9% in September 2026, the highest since December 2023, from an upwardly revised 76.4% in August and above market expectations of 76.5%. Despite the improvement since the beginning of the year, the figure remained below its long-run average of 79.4%. Among the major sectors, the rate for ... .. read more..
IMF says ECB likely to raise rates by 25 bps once more in 2026
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
The International Monetary Fund said today that the European Central Bank will likely need to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at least one more time this year to combat high inflation. The ECB has already increased rates by 25 basis points in both June and September to address rising inflation driven by higher ... .. read more..
Five ways the UK’s Autumn Budget could shock us
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
In a nutshell: What we expect Higher debt interest costs look set to drive the level of ‘fiscal headroom’ from £24bn in March to £10bn. There’s a growing sense that Chancellor John Healey would like to get this up to £15bn or higher. The government is set to modestly increase spending on the cost of ... .. read more..
Fed’s Warsh says AI boom could boost growth, but warns of bumpy transition
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
Artificial intelligence could deliver a significant boost to economic productivity over the medium term, though the transition is likely to be bumpy and poses challenges for monetary policymakers, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said on Friday, reiterating the central bank’s commitment to price stability. Speaking at an International Monetary Fund forum during the annual meetings ... .. read more..
Korea’s economy maintains solid recovery on exports: Finance Ministry
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
Korea’s economy continues to show solid signs of recovery, supported by robust exports and improving domestic consumption, the Ministry of Finance and Economy said Friday. In its monthly economic report, the Finance Ministry also noted that uncertainties surrounding the war in the Middle East and inflation woes persist. “Recently, the Korean economy has been maintaining ... .. read more..
China rolls out ‘token factories’ to drive AI economy
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
As artificial intelligence applications gain momentum, China is accelerating the rollout of “token factories” in a bid to build an economic order suited to the AI era. Every time a user prompts an AI model to generate code, images or video, tokens are consumed behind the scenes. In March, China adopted ciyuan as the official ... .. read more..
The autonomy economy: can AI in payments be trusted?
Friday, October 16,2026,17:00
As lawmakers grapple with the alleged 1/10 possibility that artificial intelligence will exterminate humanity within a decade, financial regulators are already tackling the fundamental contradictions between ‘deterministic’ payments and ‘probabilistic’ AI, as well as the scope for new types of malfeasance that will come with revolutionary convenience and efficiency. Do these worries all belong in ... .. read more..
investingLive Americas market news wrap: Nasdaq sinks and oil jumps
Friday, October 16,2026,16:08
BOJ’s Ueda: We will continue to raise rates as underlying inflation approaches 2% US September import price index +1.1% vs +0.8% expected US September industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4% expected US fiscal 2026 budget deficit was the largest in five years Markets: Gold down $2 to $4168 US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 5.09% S&P 500 down 1.2% Nasdaq down 2.3% WTI crude oil up $3.40 to $101.37 NZD leads, USD lags S&P 500 futures were higher heading into the North American session but certainly didn't stay that way. Yesterday's rumors of an AI fund blowing up persisted and spread today. The neoclouds were hard hit again on all kinds of talk about how CoreWeave could use equity to mee... .. read more..
US fiscal 2026 budget deficit was the largest in five years
Friday, October 16,2026,14:06
September 2025 was a $198B surplus Outlays $585B vs $346B a year ago Receipts $558B vs $544B a year ago FY2026 deficit $1.992 trillion vs $1.775T in FY2025, the largest in five years FY2026 gross interest on the debt: record $1.36T, up $144B (12%) Interest is now the main driver of the deficit. The $144B rise in interest costs accounts for about two-thirds of the $217B increase in the full-year shortfall. Treasury will keep rolling debt at higher rates while the Fed is debating hikes rather than cuts, so that line has nowhere to go but up. The customs numbers are the most interesting part of the release. Gross customs receipts were $25.27B, roughly in line with the recent run rate. B... .. read more..
US Industrial production surges past expectations, boosting USD outlook
Friday, October 16,2026,13:00
In a significant development for the U.S. economy, the latest industrial production figures have surpassed expectations, offering a bullish signal for the U.S. dollar. The industrial production, a key indicator of economic health that measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities, recorded an actual increase of ... .. read more..
Fed’s Warsh surprised by world economy’s ‘resilience’
Friday, October 16,2026,13:00
US Federal Reserve boss Kevin Warsh said Friday the global economy had shown unexpected resilience against strong economic shocks, as central banks battle surging inflation, while rich countries tackle spiking bond yields. “Almost everywhere in the global economy (is) showing resilience I’m not sure I would have predicted five or six months ago,” he told ... .. read more..
Euro area international trade in goods deficit €16.1 bn
Friday, October 16,2026,13:00
Euro area The first estimates of euro area balance showed a €16.1 bn deficit in trade in goods with the rest of the world in August 2026, compared with a deficit of €1.7 bn in August 2025. The euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world in August 2026 were €227.7 billion, ... .. read more..
OECD employment and labour force participation rates at record highs in Q2 20...
Friday, October 16,2026,13:00
OECD employment and labour force participation rates reached record highs in Q2 2026, at 70.4% and 74.2%, respectively. However, both rates increased by 0.1 percentage point (p.p.) or less from the previous quarter, remaining broadly stable (Figure 1). Compared with the same quarter in 2025, both rates were also broadly unchanged. Employment and labour force ... .. read more..
U.S. Industrial Production Climbs More Than Expected In September
Friday, October 16,2026,09:32
A report released by the Federal Reserve on Friday showed industrial production in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of September. The Fed said industrial production climbed by 0.7 percent in September following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in August. .. read more..
US September industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4% expected
Friday, October 16,2026,09:17
Prior was 0.0% (revised to +0.1%) Capacity utilization 76.9% vs 76.5% exp Manufacturing output +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.2%) Mining +0.2% Utilities +3.5% Machinery +1.4%, primary metals +1.6%, electrical equipment +1.3%, chemicals +1.0%. The headline is flattered by utilities. Electric utility output jumped 3.7% m/m and is up 9.6% y/y, and the utility operating rate rose 2.3 points to 73.8%. That could be weather, but the year-over-year trend is consistent with data center load. Utilities output rose at a 14.8% annualized pace in Q3. Manufacturing is a two-speed story: Semiconductor output rose 2.1% m/m and is up 19.9% y/y. It grew at a 28.4% annua... .. read more..
U.S. Import, Export Prices Jump Much More Than Expected In September
Friday, October 16,2026,08:38
Import and export prices in the U.S. both increased by far more than anticipated in the month of September, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday. The Labor Department said import prices shot up by 1.1 percent in September after rising by a downwardly revised 0.5 percent in August. .. read more..
US September import price index +1.1% vs +0.8% expected
Friday, October 16,2026,08:30
Prior was +0.7% m/m (revised to +0.5%) Export prices +2.2% vs +1.0% expected Prior export prices were +0.6% (revised to +1.2%) Import prices y/y 8.1% vs +7.0% prior It's been an ugly week for inflation data. The market seems to think the Fed can tame it by waiting until December but that's some serious imported inflation that's going to be working its way through prices for awhile. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the import and export price indexes monthly. They measure what US buyers pay for foreign goods and services and what foreign buyers pay for American output. The data rarely moves markets on its own, but it is a useful read on how the dollar, global commodity ... .. read more..
Aggressive RBI measures hand India bonds a ninth weekly loss
Friday, October 16,2026,08:25
Indian government bonds have experienced ongoing losses for nine consecutive weeks due to RBI's monetary tightening measures. The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield has climbed over 62 basis points during this period, reflecting investor concerns. Additionally, the RBI's commitment to support the rupee and manage liquidity has further dampened bond market sentiment. Market participants are wary of possible future actions regarding bond yields as the RBI addresses financial stability. .. read more..
investingLive European session wrap: Dollar slips as stocks steady and yields...
Friday, October 16,2026,07:51
Headlines: Gold shrugs off hot inflation data as market focus may be shifting to growth concerns How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Chart of the day: 10-year Treasury yields hit reverse this week but the real test is still ahead Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim Markets: NZD leads, USD and JPY lag on the day 10-year Treasury yields up 2.5 bps to 5.11% WTI crude oil -0.3% to $96.20 Gold up 0.2% to $4,176 European stocks higher; S&P 500 futures +0.1% Bitcoin up 0.7% to $82,577 It was a quieter session as broader markets continue to digest the calmer mood as we look toward the final stages this week. The selloff in the bond market h... .. read more..
Irish Trade Surplus Shrinks On Weaker Exports
Friday, October 16,2026,07:14
Ireland's foreign trade surplus decreased in August from a year ago as exports fell amid a sharp increase in imports. On an unadjusted basis, the trade surplus shrank to EUR 2.9 billion in August from EUR 4.5 billion in the corresponding month last year. Exports logged an annual decline of 1.2 percent in August, while imports were 12.4 percent higher. .. read more..
Italy Inflation Confirmed At 3-year High
Friday, October 16,2026,06:49
Consumer price inflation in Italy accelerated as estimated initially in September to the highest level in three years amid soaring energy costs. Consumer price inflation climbed to 4.2 percent in September from August's 3.3 percent. Inflation based on regulated energy products rose notably to 25.8 percent from 18.6 percent. .. read more..
Czechia Producer Price Inflation Highest Since April 2023
Friday, October 16,2026,06:31
Czechia's industrial producer price inflation accelerated further in September to the highest level in nearly three-and-a-half years. The industrial producer price index climbed 3.7 percent annually in September, faster than the 2.0 percent increase in August. Among the main industrial groupings, energy prices climbed 8.1 percent, and those for intermediate goods were 5.0 percent higher. .. read more..
Eurozone industry is slowly slipping as the Middle East conflict continues
Friday, October 16,2026,06:00
After a surprisingly strong start to the year despite the war in the Middle East, production data has weakened in recent months. The 0.5% decline in August compared to July was the third monthly decline in a row. The start of the year saw Europe profiting from a relative improvement in energy costs compared to ... .. read more..
Eurozone Trade Balance Swings To Deficit
Friday, October 16,2026,05:27
The euro area trade balance posted a deficit in August largely due to the increase in imports, data from Eurostat showed Friday. .. read more..
Eurozone Inflation Confirmed At 3.2%; Highest Since 2023
Friday, October 16,2026,05:13
Eurozone inflation rose to a three-year high in September due to the surge in energy prices, final data from Eurostat confirmed on Friday. .. read more..
Indian bonds hang tight ahead of supply
Friday, October 16,2026,05:01
Indian government bonds remained stable on Friday as traders contemplated the central bank's forthcoming policy moves. A noteworthy auction of 10-year bonds is on the horizon, anticipated to shed light on market demand and interest. Recent shifts in US Treasury yields have bolstered the Indian market. The Reserve Bank of India is fine-tuning financial conditions to cope with capital outflows and escalating shorting costs of the rupee. .. read more..
Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim
Friday, October 16,2026,05:00
Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% Eurozone September final core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% There are no changes to the preliminary estimates, with euro area headline inflation confirmed to have surged to 3.8% in September. That marks a notable acceleration from the 3.2% estimate in August, with energy price inflation being the main culprit. Of note, energy prices were up 4.0% monthly and 18.9% annually in September (as compared to 14.3% annually in August). While the ECB may be able to look past the acceleration in headline prices, it will be tough for policymakers to keep brushing aside further increases in core inflation. The annual estima... .. read more..
Austria Inflation Confirmed At 4-month High
Friday, October 16,2026,04:56
Austria's consumer price inflation accelerated as estimated initially in September to the highest level in four months amid higher fuel and heating oil prices. The consumer price index climbed 3.6 percent year-over-year in September, faster than the 3.2 percent increase in August. Inflation in transportation quickened to 10.0 percent from 7.8 percent. .. read more..
Malaysia GDP Growth Moderates To 5.3%
Friday, October 16,2026,03:17
Malaysia's economic growth moderated to one-year low in the third quarter but the overall pace of expansion remained robust as strong global demand for electronics used in artificial intelligence bolstered the manufacturing sector. Gross domestic product grew 5.3 percent in the third quarter from the last year, advance estimates from the Department of Statistics showed Friday. .. read more..
Singapore Non-Oil Domestic Exports Jump 68.4%
Friday, October 16,2026,02:46
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports continued to expand sharply in September, underpinned by higher non-electronics demand. Non-oil domestic exports surged 68.4 percent from a year ago in September, much faster than the 46.1 percent in August. The growth in non-electronics quickened to 54.2 percent from 11.9 percent, primarily due to the lumpy exports of structures of ships and boats. .. read more..
What are the main events for today?
Friday, October 16,2026,02:34
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we only have the final Eurozone CPI report. The final data is almost never market-moving because the markets react more to new information, which is given by the preliminary data. As a reminder, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates steady at the upcoming meeting due to lack of clear second-round effects and the recent bond market woes. Traders expect the next rate hike to come in December. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we have lots of low-tier releases like the US industrial production and the US Import/Export prices. The industrial production data is correlated with the ISM manufacturing PMI, so there's not much new ... .. read more..
investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Warsh stays silent on rates,
Thursday, October 15,2026,23:59
Warsh won’t prejudge rest of 2026, names October and December as decision points Tesla unveils thruster-powered Roadster with $50,000 deposit, production slated for 2028 Bailey says UK second-round inflation effects subdued so far, too early to judge Ethereum whale’s $13.45M loss reflects a year-long exit, not a fresh ETH dump Google’s 40-fold quantum leap: big for Willow, smaller for Alphabet’s share price PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7220 (vs. estimate at 6.6947) FX option expiries for 16 October 10am New York cut Goldman: Warsh’s quieter Fed: why less guidance could mean more market volatility Trump draws two red lines on Iran but keeps Pickaxe Mountain strike in pl... .. read more..
Market playbook: Is the bond market starting to worry more about US growth th...
Thursday, October 15,2026,23:50
There's something that is not quite adding up in trading this week. We've had two hotter-than-expected US inflation readings in the space of two days, and yet Treasury yields are actually moving lower instead of higher. Now, that is not quite the reaction you would expect from the bond market especially after having seen yields threaten multi-decade highs in the past week or so. US headline CPI climbed to 3.7% annually in September with core CPI pushing up to 2.6% annually. Meanwhile, producer prices jumped up by 1.3% on the month in September - marking the biggest increase since March 2022. At first glance, those are hardly comforting numbers for the Fed to be dealing with. And that is e... .. read more..
Kotak MF suspends subscriptions in two debt funds holding Yes Bank AT1 bonds
Thursday, October 15,2026,22:11
In a move aimed at protecting investors, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company has put a temporary hold on subscriptions for two of its mutual fund schemes. This decision follows the zero valuation of Yes Bank AT1 bonds after a significant bank reconstruction in March 2020. Similarly, Tata Mutual Fund has restricted new investments in the Tata Gold ETF Fund of Fund, although existing investments and redemptions will continue uninterrupted. .. read more..
Supreme Court rules against Yes Bank's write-off of Rs 8,415 crore AT1 bonds
Thursday, October 15,2026,19:30
The Supreme Court confirmed the decision of the Bombay High Court regarding Yes Bank's AT1 bonds. This ruling impacts ₹8,415 crore in bonds written off during the bank's 2020 restructuring. The court noted that the administrator lacked the authority to write down these bonds. Bondholders had contested the write-off, citing mis-selling of the securities. Yes Bank is now obligated to repay the bonds along with accrued interest. .. read more..
New Zealand card spending falls for second month as food prices hold flat in ...
Thursday, October 15,2026,18:25
The data adds to a mixed picture for the New Zealand dollar, with weak household spending offsetting the stronger manufacturing survey released earlier in the day. A second monthly fall in card spending points to soft domestic demand, which tends to argue against tighter policy, while flat food prices remove one source of upward pressure on inflation for the month. Fuel costs, which manufacturers flagged as a key concern, remain the bigger swing factor for household budgets, leaving oil prices important for the consumer outlook. --- Yesterday: RBNZ’s Conway says October rate decision completely open, OCR more likely to rise --- New Zealand’s factories are finding their stride, but its sho... .. read more..
Singapore Export Data Due On Friday
Thursday, October 15,2026,18:03
Singapore will on Friday release September figures for non-oil domestic exports, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In August, NODX rose 10.9 percent on month and 46.2 percent on year, for a trade surplus of SGD13.780 billion. .. read more..
South Korea Export Prices Surge 40.9% On Year In September
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:49
Export prices in South Korea spiked 40.9 percent on year in September, the Bank of Korea said on Friday - easing from 42.7 percent in August. .. read more..
New Zealand Manufacturing Sector Accelerates In September - BusinessNZ
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:42
The manufacturing sector in New Zealand continued to expand in September, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from BusinessNZ revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 56.5. .. read more..
New Zealand manufacturing PMI jumps to 56.5, 15th straight month of expansion
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:39
The stronger reading is mildly supportive for the New Zealand dollar, adding to evidence that the goods side of the economy is gathering pace into year-end. Firm new orders and production point to near-term resilience, while the return to growth in employment is the detail policymakers are likely to watch most closely. Fuel prices remain the main cost pressure cited by firms, so any further rise in oil prices would squeeze margins and could dent sentiment that is already more negative than the headline suggests. Election uncertainty adds a domestic risk premium to investment decisions. Newswire cut: New Zealand’s BNZ-BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI jumped to 56.5 in September from 53.3, its ... .. read more..
IMF warns attacks on Saudi Arabia could hurt global economy after strike on A...
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:00
Aramco’s headquarters has been hit, flights are suspended and oil prices are rising. The IMF warns that the economic fallout from attacks on Saudi Arabia could be felt worldwide. The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that attacks on Saudi Arabia could hurt economies worldwide, after a strike damaged oil giant Aramco’s headquarters. IMF managing ... .. read more..
Greece’s IOBE keeps 2026 growth forecast at 1.8%, cuts 2027 view
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:00
Greece’s economic research institute IOBE maintained its 2026 economic growth forecast at 1.8% on Thursday but lowered its 2027 projection to 1.9% from 2.0%. The Greek economy grew 1.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, a slight slowdown from the first quarter’s 2.0% expansion, according to IOBE. The institute noted that private consumption showed ... .. read more..
China’s economy seen missing target as global shocks bite: AFP poll
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:00
China’s economy likely grew at a slower pace than the government’s target in the third quarter, an AFP survey of analysts shows, as energy, geopolitical and debt crises stoke fears of a global downturn. Leaders in Beijing have struggled for years to reverse a stubborn slump in the once-booming real estate sector, which has dampened ... .. read more..
France isn’t the new Greece, but the warning signs are familiar
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:00
History hardly ever repeats. It rhymes. More than 16 years after the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, France’s political and fiscal troubles have revived memories of that period. However, as is so often the case with memories, particularly those of experts and market participants who weren’t even around at that time, they tend to be blurry ... .. read more..
U.S. producer prices rise by 1.3% month-on-month in September
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:00
U.S. producer prices climbed by the most in 4-1/2 years in September, fueled in part by a record jump in goods costs, in the latest sign of energy-induced inflationary pressures that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The producer price index for final demand rose by 1.3% on a month-on-month basis ... .. read more..
Retail sales rise more than expected, boosting economic outlook
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:00
Retail sales in the United States have shown a notable increase, according to the latest economic data release. The actual retail sales figure came in at 0.8%, surpassing the forecasted growth rate of 0.3%. This unexpected rise in retail sales suggests a stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending pattern, which is a critical component of the nation’s economic ... .. read more..
Business inventories remain steady, matching forecasts
Thursday, October 15,2026,17:00
In the latest economic data release, business inventories have remained unchanged, aligning perfectly with market expectations. The report indicated that inventories increased by 0.4%, matching the forecasted figure of 0.4%. This data point is crucial as it reflects the change in the value of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers, and is often ... .. read more..