India’s economy set for rebound but food inflation needs monitoring, cenbank ...
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
India’s economic growth is poised to rebound as domestic demand regains strength, but “stickiness” in food inflation warrants careful monitoring, the central bank said in its monthly bulletin released on Friday. In India, there is a “conducive quickening” of high-frequency economic activity indicators in the second half of 2024-25, signalling implicit pick up in real ... .. read more..
ECB’s Elderson: we are not yet done easing policy
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
The European Central Bank is not yet done lowering interest rates, but the timing and size of any future policy easing is not yet certain, Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad quoted ECB board member Frank Elderson as saying on Friday. “If we lower the interest rate too quickly, dialling down services inflation sufficiently could become ... .. read more..
Fed Stress Test Adjustments May Be Credit Negative for U.S. Banks
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
The Federal Reserve’s recent announcement to enhance the transparency of bank stress tests and mitigate stress capital buffer (SCB) volatility could be incrementally negative for bank ratings if it leads to lower capital buffers, Fitch Ratings says. The Fed’s proposal to average stress results over two years would have a modest smoothing effect on capital ... .. read more..
Insuring against extreme heat: navigating risks in a warming world
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
In 2024, the planet reached a critical milestone: each of the last 10 years has been the hottest on record. For the first time, the global average temperature over a 12-month period rose 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, currently at 1.62°C and exceeding the Paris Climate Accord’s target. UN Secretary-General António Guterres starkly described this as ... .. read more..
Japan Dec consumer inflation likely quickened on energy costs- Reuters poll
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
Japan’s core consumer inflation likely accelerated in December, boosted by higher energy costs, while the Bank of Japan is seen raising rates next week, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil but excludes fresh food prices, rose to 3.0% in December from a year ago, according to ... .. read more..
UK finance minister Reeves vows to keep taking difficult decisions
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
Britain’s finance minister Rachel Reeves said she was tuning out her critics and would continue making difficult decisions in an effort to grow the economy, speaking after a bruising week in which opponents called for her to quit. Concerns about Britain’s slow economy contributed to a surge in its government borrowing costs, while businesses have ... .. read more..
Mega-merger boom threatens a shareholder bloodbath
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
When a chief executive unveils a big merger, the fretting begins. Concerns about a repeat of disasters like AOL-Time Warner or Bayer-Monsanto immediately spring to mind. It’s a particular concern for 2025 as steadier interest rates and laxer antitrust enforcement augur a resurgence of chunky M&A. When acquisitions reach $10 billion or more, however, the ... .. read more..
Minutes of the ECB’s December meeting confirm easing bias
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
At the ECB’s December meeting, the most notable topics included the debate over the size of the rate cut (25bp vs 50bp), a still relatively optimistic outlook for growth and inflation, and the decision to temporarily disregard any potential impact of the US elections on the eurozone economy. The minutes offered some interesting insights on ... .. read more..
Scapegoat economics: a potential pitfall for the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
The 21st century is when everything changes. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is not an abstract economic idea. Everything from social status to economic geography is shifting right now. These changes are bound up with the current rise in prejudice. Political hostility to immigrants, often using dehumanizing terms, was a common feature of election campaigns throughout ... .. read more..
EU says it is considering its options after BoE delays Basel bank rules
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
The European Union said on Friday it was considering its options after Britain announced it was delaying implementation of tougher global bank rules until 2027, adding it was in “everyone’s interest” to implement the reforms fully and on time. “(The EU) is now considering which steps to take on this in light of developments in ... .. read more..
Greece has tapped 18 billion euros from EU’s Recovery Fund
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
Greece has received 18 billion euros ($18.5 billion) in grants and loans from the European Union’s Recovery Fund since 2021, equivalent to about 8% of its economic output, the government said on Thursday. After years of under-investment due to a 2010-2018 financial crisis, Greece has improved its uptake of European funds, tackling bureaucracy and helping ... .. read more..
BOJ likely to keep hawkish policy pledge, raise rates next week, sources say
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates next week barring any market shocks when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office, and maintain a pledge to keep pushing up borrowing costs if the economy continues to recover, said five sources familiar with its thinking. However, the central bank likely won’t offer explicit guidance ... .. read more..
More of the same for France this year, say BofA
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
Political turmoil meant 2024 was a pretty grim year for French assets, and with no solution in sight, BofA Global Research see more of the same. In 2024, the CAC40 fell 2.5% PX1 compared to a 6% gain for the Stoxx 600 SXXP (not to mention a 20% jump in the S&P 500), and the ... .. read more..
US single-family housing starts increase in December
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
U.S. single-family homebuilding increased solidly in December, but further gains were seen limited by rising mortgage rates and a glut of new homes on the market. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.050 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau ... .. read more..
UK retail sales dropped in December, falling 0.3% on the month
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
Investing.com – UK retail sales surprisingly fell in December, pointing to ongoing headwinds to consumer spending activity ahead of next month’s Bank of England meeting. dropped by 0.3% last month, slipping from a revised gain of 0.1% in November, according to data released by the Office of National Statistics data earlier Friday. Economists had predicted ... .. read more..
IMF World Economic Outlook Says Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
Global growth is holding steady, but remains below historical averages the IMF is reporting in its latest forecast released Friday (January 17) in Washington, DC. Inflation is moderating back towards central bank targets and growth holding steady at 3.3%, but there are risks and uncertainty the IMF said ahead of the release of the quarterly ... .. read more..
US manufacturing output accelerates in December
Friday, January 17,2025,17:00
U.S. manufacturing output surged in December likely as production at Boeing picked up following the end of a crippling strike by factory workers at the aerospace giant. Factory output increased 0.6% last month after an upwardly revised 0.4% rebound in November, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production rising ... .. read more..
Baker Hughes oil rig count down -2 to 468
Friday, January 17,2025,13:02
Total rig count down -4 to 580 Oil rig count -2 to 478 Gas rig count -2 to 98 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
ECB’s Stournaras says monetary easing should continue
Friday, January 17,2025,13:00
The European Central Bank should continue with monetary easing with a series of rate cuts in the coming period as possible further protectionism by the United States could hurt the euro zone’s moderate growth, the bank’s policymaker Yannis Stournaras said late on Thursday. Any further pressure on world trade from fresh protectionist measures imposed by ... .. read more..
China’s economy meets official growth target, but many feel worse off
Friday, January 17,2025,13:00
China’s economy grew 5% last year, matching the government’s target, but in a lopsided fashion, with many people complaining of worsening living standards as Beijing struggles to transfer its industrial and export gains to consumers. The imbalance raises concerns that structural problems may deepen in 2025, when China plans a similar growth performance by going ... .. read more..
Euro zone current account surplus narrows in November
Friday, January 17,2025,13:00
The euro zone’s current account surplus narrowed in November on a drop in the services surplus and lower primary income, which includes items like wages and dividend payments, European Central Bank data showed on Friday. The combined current account surplus of the 20 nations sharing the euro narrowed to 26.98 billion euros ($27.8 billion)in November ... .. read more..
China industrial production rises above expectations in Dec, retail sales jump
Friday, January 17,2025,13:00
Chinese industrial production grew more than expected in December as recent stimulus measures from Beijing supported business activity, while retail sales beat expectations as private spending rebounded. grew 6.2% year-on-year in December, higher than the median forecast of 5.4% growth, government data showed on Friday. It compares to a 5.4% rise seen in the prior ... .. read more..
Chief economists look ahead to ‘particularly complex’ year of tariffs and ten...
Friday, January 17,2025,13:00
Divergence and fragmentation. The latest World Economic Forum Chief Economists Outlook reflects concerns about both; divergence in terms of parts of the world likely to enjoy enviable amounts of growth relative to a more sluggish pace elsewhere, and fragmentation in relation to imperiled trade relations. It’s no surprise that looming policy shifts weigh more heavily ... .. read more..
Atlanta Fed Retains Q4 GDP Growth Estimate At 3%
Friday, January 17,2025,12:39
The Atlanta Fed left the U.S. fourth quarter economic growth estimate unchanged on Friday citing data released earlier in the day. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth for the fourth quarter was retained at 3.0 percent after it was raised from the January 9 forecast of 2.7 percent on Thursday. .. read more..
European indices close higher. Record closing levels for some of the indices.
Friday, January 17,2025,12:16
The major European indices closed solidly higher not only for the day but also the week. The gains have led to record closes for the German DAX, the UK's FTSE 100 and Italy's FTSE MIB. The final numbers for the day show: German DAX, +1.20%. For the week the index rose 3.41%. A new record high of 20,924.50 was reached. The index closed at 20,903.40. France's CAC rose +0.98%. For the week, the index rose 3.75%. UK's FTSE 100 rose 1.35% on the day and 3.11% for the week. The high price this week reached 8533.43 a new all-time high. The index closed at 8505.23. Spain's Ibex rose 0.64% for the day and 1.67% for the week. Italy's FTSE MIB rose 1.25% and 3.36% for the week. The index closed at i... .. read more..
CBO sees FY budget deficit of $1.865 trillion up from $1.832 trillion in FY 2024
Friday, January 17,2025,12:06
The Congressional Budget Office is out with their forecast for the US deficit and also the benchmark for the new presidents term. Congressional Budget Office forecasts FY 2025 U.S. budget deficit at $1.865 trillion vs $1.832 trillion FY 2024 deficit. CBO forecasts FY 2025 deficit at 6.2% of GDP vs 6.4% in FY 2024, with 5.8% average for FY 2026-2035. CBO forecasts U.S. public debt at 99.9% of GDP in 2025, rising to 118.5% in FY 2035 based on current laws. CBO FY 2025 deficit forecast is $73 billion lower than in June estimate; FY 2026 deficit forecast at $1.713 trillion vs $1.851 trillion in June. CBO forecasts cumulative FY 2026-2035 deficit at $21.758 trillion vs June deficit forecast of... .. read more..
Trump: It is ultimately goes up to me so you are going to see what I'm going...
Friday, January 17,2025,10:55
Pres. elect Trump in an interview on CNN said: it is ultimately up to me He did not specify what he wants to do, but he has said/implied he wants TikTok to be Amerian owned and operated within the United States.. Trump benefited from TikTok in the election. He does not want to alienate the TikTok audience, but from China's side, they have a valuable property to horse-trade with including lower tariffs (?) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
'Buy Long Duration Bonds,' Says Bank Of America Strategist: 4 ETFs To Watch A...
Friday, January 17,2025,10:35
Investors may be underestimating Donald Trump ‘s potential push for fiscal discipline, making long-term bonds and rate-sensitive sectors an attractive bet, according to Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett. In his flagship ‘The Flow Show’ report published Friday, Hartnett shifted to a bullish stance on bonds, stressing that the yield spike seen in recent months has created an opportunity. “20-year corporate bonds now yielding 6.3%, pension funds would be looking to park some of those gains in bonds,” he said, recommending investors “buy long duration bonds.” Hartnett indicated the case for duration bonds – as common... .. read more..
U.S. Industrial Production Jumps In December As Utilities, Mining Output Surges
Friday, January 17,2025,10:29
Industrial production in the U.S. increased by much more than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Friday. The Fed said industrial production jumped by 0.9 percent in December after rising by a revised 0.2 percent in November. .. read more..
Cyprus Tourist Arrivals Rise 7.6% In December
Friday, January 17,2025,10:24
Tourist arrivals to Cyprus during December increased and the main share of them came from the U.K., data from the statistical office Cystat showed on Friday. .. read more..
Trump: Plans on a flood of immigration executive orders on Day 1
Friday, January 17,2025,10:22
In addition to TikTok, Pres. Trump is saying that he is planning a flood of immigration executive orders on day one. However, Politico reports, that Trump is unlikely to fulfill key Day One promises, including: Large-scale deportation efforts. Ending birthright citizenship quickly. Challenges include legal, logistical hurdles, and the need for congressional approval. Instead, his focus as he takes office is likely to: Signal a strict stance on illegal border crossings. Warn unauthorized immigrants, especially those with criminal records, of heightened deportation risks. In addition, he plans to implement: Executive orders and actions to reinstate policies from his first term. Reversal of ... .. read more..
US Supreme Court rules ag TikTok challenge to law that would force sale or ba...
Friday, January 17,2025,10:06
The US Supreme Court rules against TikToks challenge to law that would force a sale or ban the app in United States. Does TikTok get banned on Sunday. The Biden Administration said they would not let it go black on Sunday (i.e. enforce the law). They are passing the buck to the Trump administration. Trump has said he does not want it banned but wants to broker a deal that would satisfy the risks. How that all plays out, we will find out on Tuesday after the Monday holiday (that will be the start). Xi does not want ByteDance to sell it. US says, they are gathering important US data that is a national security concern. Both houses of Congress voted on the banning of the app as-is in the han... .. read more..
More from China's Xi: There are differnces. The key is finding ways to resolv...
Friday, January 17,2025,09:59
More from China's Xi: There are inevitable differences between China and US, the key is to respect each other's core interests and major concerns, and find proper ways to resolve issues . China a US shares broad common interests and broader space for cooperation. Can be partners and friends. Question of Taiwan concerns China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity. I hope US will handle it with great care. Essence of China – US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win– win. Confrontation and conflict should not be our choice. Both sides should strengthen cooperation based on principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation The Chinese state... .. read more..
Trump: The call with Xi was a very good one for both China and USA
Friday, January 17,2025,09:42
The US Presidential inauguration will take place on Monday (as will the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday). Ahead of that event in transition to the 2nd term, Pres electr Trump talked to China's Xi. Here is what he said about that call: ....and he's off. Expect ALOT of news and actions next week. Our fingers will be busy. PS Xi has also commented saying: Both place great importance on interactions and hope for a positive start to China-US relations during the new presidential term. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
U.S. Housing Starts Skyrocket To Ten-Month High In December
Friday, January 17,2025,09:36
A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed new residential construction in the U.S. surged by much more than anticipated in the month of December. The Commerce Department said housing starts soared by 15.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.499 million in December after tumbling by 3.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.294 million in November. .. read more..
Stock indices are set to open higher
Friday, January 17,2025,09:26
The major US stock indices are on pace to have their first positive week. Coming into the day: Dow industrial average up 2.90% S&P index up 1.89% NASDAQ index is up 0.92%. in premarket trading futures implying: S&P index 52.66 points Dow industrial average 274 points NASDAQ index up 342 points Intel shares are up 7.42% on a report that they are in play as a takeover target (they need it) Nvidia shares are up 1.67%. Yesterday shares fell -1.96% Microsoft shares are up 1.42%. Yesterday shares fell -0.41% Amazon shares are up 1.85%. Yesterday shares and felt -1.20%. Meta shares are up 1.67%. Yesterday shares fell -0.94%. Alphabet shares are up 1.69%. Yesterday shares fell -1.35% Appl... .. read more..
U.S. Industrial Production Jumps Much More Than Expected In December
Friday, January 17,2025,09:22
Industrial production in the U.S. increased by much more than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Friday. .. read more..
US industrial production for December 0.9% versus 0.3% expected
Friday, January 17,2025,09:15
Prior month US industrial production -0.1%. Revised to +0.2% US industrial production 0.9% versus 0.3% expected Prior capacity utilization 76.8%. Revised higher 277.0% Capacity realization for December 77.6% versus 77.0% expected. Best since August of 2024 Manufacturing output MoM 0.6% versus 0.2% estimate. Prior month revised higher to 0.4% from 0.2% good data for the month and revisions were also better than expectations. Remember earlier this week the Philadelphia manufacturing index came in much stronger than expectations. This may have been a prelude to that survey data This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Geopolitic: China's Xi had a phone call with Pres. Elect Trump
Friday, January 17,2025,08:47
President-elect Trump will be inaugurated on Monday and you can expect on Tuesday he will hit the ground running with calls to global leaders. It is being reported by Xinhua that Trump has already in contact with Xi via a phone call. Of extreme interest will be China's intentions for Taiwan. Trump has promised that he will end the Ukraine/Russian war as well. The other hotspot for geopolitics seems to be progressing to a resolution. Today, the Israeli security cabinet approved the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal announced in Qatar, with a simple majority from its 11 voting members. The agreement still requires approval from the full 33-member Israeli cabinet, scheduled to meet later today... .. read more..
U.S. Housing Starts Spike Much More Than Expected In December
Friday, January 17,2025,08:39
A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed new residential construction in the U.S. skyrocketed by much more than anticipated in the month of December. .. read more..
Canada securities transactions for November C$17.85 billion versus C$-2.65 b...
Friday, January 17,2025,08:31
Prior month C$-2.65 billion Canadian investment in foreign securities: $17.8 billion in November (highest since March 2024), reversing a $2.7 billion divestment in October. Foreign debt securities acquired: $11.9 billion. Bonds: $10.3 billion. Non-US foreign bonds: $6.7 billion. US bonds: $3.6 billion. Foreign equities investment: $5.9 billion, primarily US shares (+$5.1 billion), after two months of divestment. Foreign investors acquired $16.4 billion of Canadian securities in November, primarily driven by purchases of debt securities. Debt securities acquisitions totaled $25.2 billion, mainly in federal government instruments. Record-high investment in Canadian money market instruments:... .. read more..
US December housing start 1.499M versus 1.320M estimate
Friday, January 17,2025,08:30
Prior month 1.289M revised to 1.294M Housing starts 1.499M vs 1.320M est Housing starts +15.8% versus -3.7% last month Building permit prior month 1.505M Building permits 1.483M vs 1.460M Building permits, -0.7% month on month versus +6.1% last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
What is on the economic calendar today to close out the trading week?
Friday, January 17,2025,08:24
The economic calendar is fairly light in the North American session: US housing starts for December are expected to come in at 1.320M versus 1.289M last month. 8:30 AM ET US building permits for December are expected to come in at 1.460M versus 1.505M last month. 8:30 AM ET Canada securities purchases for November will also be released at 8:30 AM. Last month C$-2.65 billion. US industrial production for December will be released at 9:15 AM with expectations of 0.3% versus -0.1% last month. Better utilization expected at 77.0% versus 76.8% last month. Manufacturing output for the month Decembers expected to rise by 0.2% versus 0.2% last month. It looks like there are no Fed speakers schedu... .. read more..
ECBs Elderson: If we lower the interest rate too fast, service inflation coul...
Friday, January 17,2025,08:19
ECB's Elderson is lamenting and saying: If we lower the interest rate to quickly, darling down services inflation sufficiently could become complicated. If we keep interest rates too high for too long, then we risk undershooting our target. What do we do? ECB is expected to cut rates at its next meeting This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. .. read more..
Iceland Wages Rise 9.0% In November
Friday, January 17,2025,08:15
Taxable wages and salaries in Iceland grew in November from the previous month mainly due to the December bonus, preliminary figures from the Statistics Iceland showed on Friday. Wages and salaries increased 9.0 percent from October and 6.4 percent from the same month a year ago. .. read more..
Malta HICP Inflation Slows To 1.8%
Friday, January 17,2025,08:11
Malta's EU measure of inflation eased for the second straight month in December. The harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, climbed 1.8 percent year-on-year in December, slower than the 2.1 percent rise in November. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages registered a slower growth of 2.0 percent annually in December versus a 3.4 percent gain a month ago. .. read more..
Iceland November Registered Employment Grows
Friday, January 17,2025,08:07
Employment in Iceland grew in November from the previous month as well as from the same period a year ago, preliminary figures from Statistics Iceland showed Friday. .. read more..
UK Retail Sales Drop Unexpectedly On Weak Food Store Sales
Friday, January 17,2025,07:58
UK retail sales declined unexpectedly in December despite the festive season as food sales logged its worst performance since 2013, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Friday. Retail sales volume decreased 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in December, in contrast to the revised 0.1 percent gain in November. The decline confounded expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent. .. read more..
Portugal Producer Price Inflation Climbs To 1.6%
Friday, January 17,2025,07:40
Portugal's producer price inflation rose for the second straight month in December to the highest level in four months. The producer price index climbed 1.6 percent year-on-year in December, faster than the 1.2 percent rise in November. The price growth in energy accelerated to 7.0 percent from 4.7 percent in the prior month. Prices for intermediate goods rose at a faster pace of 1.4 percent. .. read more..
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar remains steady, UK retail sales disap...
Friday, January 17,2025,07:00
Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectations Majority of BOJ policymakers are reportedly likely to approve a rate hike next week Fed's Hammack: We can be very patient in considering future rate cuts ECB's Nagel calls for a more cautious approach to rate cuts ECB's Stournaras: Rate cuts should still continue in the coming meetings UK December retail sales -0.3% vs +0.4% m/m expected Eurozone December final CPI +2.4% v +2.4% y/y prelim Eurozone November current account balance €34.6 billion vs €32.0 billion prior Demographic concerns continue to grow for China Markets: EUR leads, GBP and JPY lag on the day European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3% US 10-year yields dow... .. read more..