Why the economics make this the craziest World Cup ever
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
Football World Cups are rarely completely politics-free but never has the beautiful game navigated a geopolitical high-wire act of this kind. The main host is at war with a participant, whose team must commute in on match days from another country. Add to that the quite astonishing coincidence of the US, Canada and Mexico, the ... .. read more..
UK Manufacturing Output Unexpectedly Rises in April
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
Manufacturing production in the UK rose by 0.4% month-over-month in April 2026, beating market expectations for a 0.2% decline but slowing from a 1.2% increase in the previous month. Output increased in eight of the thirteen manufacturing subsectors, led by gains in basic pharmaceutical products and preparations (4.2% vs 2.1% in March), rubber and plastic ... .. read more..
Germany Inflation Confirmed at 2.6% in May
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
Germany’s annual inflation rate rose 2.6% in May 2026, easing from a two-year high of 2.9% in the previous month and confirming preliminary estimates. Price growth moderated across several categories, including food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.7% vs. 1.5% in April), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.8% vs. 4.3%), housing and utilities (1.4% vs. 1.6%), and restaurants ... .. read more..
US Housing Economy Contracts as Affordability, Builder Pressures Persist
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
The U.S. housing economy is contracting, with elevated mortgage rates, softer hiring, weaker demand, tariff-related input cost pressure and the oil price shock serving as reinforcing pressures across construction, sales, affordability and mortgage performance, according to Fitch Ratings’ 1H26 U.S. Housing Monitor. Residential investment and demand for related goods and services have declined for the ... .. read more..
Balance of Fed policy risks shifting to firmer inflation, Morgan Stanley says
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
The balance of risks in Federal Reserve interest rate policy appears to be moving to a focus on “firmer inflation rather than weaker hiring,” analysts at Morgan Stanley have argued. In a note on Friday, the strategists including Michael Gapen and Sam Coffin suggested that any sustained disinflation ahead depends on the resolution of the ... .. read more..
IMF warns against further relaxation of euro area fiscal rules
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
The IMF has urged euro area countries to tighten their fiscal policies rather than relaxing them further in response to the energy crisis, with an extra adjustment effort required from high-debt nations. Euro area countries should not further relax fiscal measures to tackle the current energy shock but rather improve their budget balances, with additional ... .. read more..
Japan Industrial Output Growth Revised Lower
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
Japan’s industrial production rose 0.5% month-over-month in April 2026, below flash data of 0.8% but reversing from a 0.4% drop in the previous month. It was the first rise since January, amid resilient overseas demand and a recovery in domestic manufacturing activity, although escalating Middle East tensions continued to pose risks to supply chains and ... .. read more..
UK Trade Deficit Narrows in April
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
The United Kingdom trade deficit declined to £8.44 billion in April 2026, down from £9.66 billion in the previous month. Exports grew 1.1% month-on-month to a three-month high of £79.97 billion, while imports fell 0.4% to £88.41 billion. Goods exports rose 2.4% to £33.11 billion, driven by higher shipments to both EU and non-EU countries, ... .. read more..
Middle East Conflict Sends Global Growth to Lowest Rate Since COVID-19
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
The conflict in the Middle East is expected to slow global growth to the lowest rate since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic amid higher energy prices, steeper inflation, and increased borrowing costs , according to the World Bank Group’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2026, ... .. read more..
US sentiment underlines K-shaped consumer strife
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
Sentiment gets a lift, but remains weak The University of Michigan sentiment index has improved to 48.9 from 44.8 (consensus 46.0), but this remains at very weak levels by historical standards. The chart below suggests the latest reading should be consistent with consumer spending falling around 1.5% year-on-year. However, consumer spending is being driven by ... .. read more..
UK economy contracts in April amid energy price pressures
Friday, June 12,2026,17:00
Investing.com — The UK economy contracted 0.1% in April 2026, marking the first monthly decline since August 2025, according to ONS data released Friday. The dip follows a strong start to the year, GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to April, but analysts say a course correction was inevitable as the fallout from the ... .. read more..
Starmer faces rising pressure as Burnham looms
Friday, June 12,2026,12:10
The UK Independent is reporting that UK PM Starmer is facing growing leadership pressure ahead of next week's Makerfield by-election. Andy Burnham is expected to win the seat and return to Parliament, potentially positioning himself for a Labour leadership challenge. Reports suggest Burnham's allies are preparing for a possible leadership bid, including discussions about staffing and cabinet roles. Cabinet instability is increasing, following the resignations of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns. Starmer insists he would fight any leadership challenge, but concerns are growing within Labour over his long-term position. Some Labour MPs reportedly fear a wave ... .. read more..
VP Vance: A lot of fake information about potential deal to reopen Strait/end...
Friday, June 12,2026,11:09
VP Vance is on the wires saying: Seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal to reopen Strait and ending Iran's nuclear weapons program. HMMMM.. I thought those were two of the main goals in the process. Vance adds: Iranians are not receiving any cash No funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending meeting Why do they even have to announce something like that now, except to sooth Mr. President's ego. Just let it happen and be quiet for a change. Given that we've heard some version of "a deal is imminent" nearly 40 times without an agreement actually being reached, the criticism of the information itself seems somewhat misplaced, though hardly unexpected. Jus... .. read more..
Iranian Foreign Minister says the memorandum of understanding has never been ...
Friday, June 12,2026,11:02
The Iranian Foreign Minister is saying that: The memorandum of understanding has never been closer The signing is pending its finalization He comments that the media should refrain from entering into speculation about its contents The details of the deal will be forthcoming A diplomatic source is also commenting that the US and Iran have informed mediators of their readiness to sign. Crude oil is trading at $84.79 which is down around one dollar on the day. US stocks are moving to the upside with the S&P now at new highs up 47 points or 0.63% at 7440.36. The NASDAQ index is up 106 point or 0.41% at 25916.07. The S&P index is pushing above its 200 hour moving average at 7433.24. Th... .. read more..
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rebounds From Record Low In June
Friday, June 12,2026,10:33
With consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices, the University of Michigan released a report on Friday showing a bigger than expected rebound in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of June. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index jumped to 48.9 in June after slumping to 44.8 in May. Economists had expected the index to rise to 46.0. .. read more..
June US prelim Mich consumer sentiment 48.9 vs 46.0 expected
Friday, June 12,2026,10:04
Prior was 48.2 Current conditions 48.4 vs 46.2 expected (prior was 45.8) Expectations 49.3 vs 44.3 expected (prior was 44.1) 1-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.8% prior 5-year inflation 3.4% vs 3.9% prior I don't know why anyone cares about this report at this point. It's been in the doldrums forever and hasn't predicted any slowdown in consumer spending. It's highly split on political lines and it tripped up the FOMC a few years ago with an illusory jump in inflation expectations that was revised away shortly afterwards. Don't trade on this indicator. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. .. read more..
Trump says the terms of the Iran deal that leaked out are fake. Upset about d...
Friday, June 12,2026,09:47
The Iran peace trade is fading today after Trump wrote: The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. They better get their act together, and FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMP He could clear it all up by simply releasing the text of the agreement. Unfortunately, the market has seen this... .. read more..
Brent Crude Oil Prices May Climb 36% In 2026 On Middle East Conflict: World Bank
Friday, June 12,2026,09:43
The persisting conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are expected to keep the global energy prices elevated this year with a 36 percent increase in the Brent crude oil prices, a new report from the World Bank said. .. read more..
India bonds rise as oil slumps on Iran peace deal hope
Friday, June 12,2026,08:24
Indian government bonds saw a significant rise on Friday. This surge was driven by a sharp decline in crude oil prices. Hopes of a breakthrough with Iran boosted sentiment. However, domestic fiscal worries capped the gains. The benchmark 2036 note yield fell to its lowest since issuance. Investors are watching the Reserve Bank of India's measures to attract foreign investment. .. read more..
India Inflation Climbs To 3.93% In May
Friday, June 12,2026,08:15
India's consumer price inflation accelerated less than expected in May to the highest level in sixteen months amid higher food costs. The consumer price index registered an increase of 3.93 percent on a yearly basis in May, faster than the 3.48 percent rise in April. Food inflation quickened to 4.78 percent from 4.20 percent. Charges for transport services for goods surged 7.63 percent. .. read more..
investingLive European markets wrap: Setting up for that TACO moment? SpaceX ...
Friday, June 12,2026,07:41
Headlines: Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNA The US-Iran MoU could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva - BBG Here is what the US-Iran deal looks set to be like after another TACO moment Iran media says that memorandum of understanding draft still not yet finalised Oil prices plunge after Iran confirms details of the deal with the US The countdown continues ahead of the Wall Street open, all eyes on SpaceX ECB policymaker Nagel says keeping all options open for July meeting ECB's Dolenc says current rate level gives enough flexibility to respond to energy shock Core inflation confirmed to have picked up in Germany during May French inflation accelerate... .. read more..
U.K. Economy Shrinks For First Time Since August
Friday, June 12,2026,07:33
The U.K. economy contracted for the first time since August last year as the U.S.-Iran war has started to take its toll on business activity, official data showed Friday. Real gross domestic product decreased 0.1 percent in April, in contrast to a 0.3 percent expansion in March, the Office for National Statistics reported. This was the first monthly fall since August 2025. .. read more..
Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNA
Friday, June 12,2026,06:50
Iran not to restore Hormuz Strait status to pre-war level Framework text nearly finalized Text awaits final decision Under the MoU with the US, Iran makes no commitment regarding the transfer of management of the Strait of Hormuz The future administration of the strait will be resolved as a regional matter through dialogue and joint decision-making between Tehran and Oman No agreement is made regarding the nuclear file in the current memorandum Nuclear talks will take place within a 60-day period after signing Iranian state media IRNA says that Tehran has made no commitment to restore the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war conditions and no commitment regarding any transfer of management of the ... .. read more..
Hong Kong Industrial Output Growth Slows In Q1
Friday, June 12,2026,06:19
Hong Kong's industrial production expanded at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2026. The index of industrial production for manufacturing industries as a whole climbed 3.1 percent annually in the first quarter, following a 5.8 percent rebound in the fourth quarter. Production of textiles and wearing apparel fell at a stable pace of 4.7 percent. .. read more..
Spain Inflation Stable At 3.2%
Friday, June 12,2026,06:06
Spain's consumer prices logged a steady increase in May, final data from the statistical office INE revealed Friday. .. read more..
OECD unemployment rate unchanged at 5.0% in April 2026, entering fifth year c...
Friday, June 12,2026,06:00
The OECD unemployment rate held steady at 5.0% in April 2026, a level it has hovered around since February 2022 (Figure 1). The number of unemployed individuals in the OECD was broadly stable at 35.1 million (Table 2). Similarly, unemployment rates in both the European Union (6.0%) and the euro area (6.3%) were unchanged from ... .. read more..
ING Monthly: Already playing into extra time
Friday, June 12,2026,06:00
The 2026 World Cup starts today. Traditionally, this is the moment when economists permit themselves a small, sanctioned act of intellectual frivolity. Forget the hard stuff for a week or two. Write something about host nation GDP multipliers, or the peer-reviewed – yes, peer-reviewed – literature on winning World Cup titles and consumer confidence or ... .. read more..
Federal Reserve to resist the urge to hike US rates
Friday, June 12,2026,06:00
Rate risks on the rise GDP growth was disappointing in the final quarter of 2025 and the first three months of this year, but business surveys suggest a re-acceleration is underway. This view is supported by a recent string of better-than-expected jobs reports and the obvious point that a surge in oil prices is a ... .. read more..
Croatia Producer Price Inflation Eases To 6.7%
Friday, June 12,2026,05:57
Croatia's producer price inflation slowed slightly in May from a 31-month high in the previous month. The producer price index rose 6.7 percent year-on-year in May, following a 7.0 percent surge in April, which was the highest increase since March 2023. The overall high growth rate was mainly driven by a 21.4 jump in energy costs. .. read more..
Turkey Current Account Deficit Narrows In April
Friday, June 12,2026,05:44
Turkey's current account surplus decreased in April from a year ago. The current account surplus dropped to $5.7 billion from $8.4 billion in the corresponding month last year. The current account, excluding gold and energy, indicated a net surplus of $319 million in April. The trade deficit in goods narrowed to $6.8 billion from $9.9 billion. .. read more..
The US-Iran MoU could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva - BBG
Friday, June 12,2026,05:41
Details of the deal here A memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva, according to Bloomberg. Trump unexpectedly called off planned strikes on Iran yesterday and instead announced that Washington had reached the framework of a deal with Tehran (which is exactly the same they've been negotiating on for months). Under the proposed MoU, the US would commit to lifting its naval blockade around Iran, likely within a defined timeframe tied to implementation benchmarks. In exchange, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore shipping conditions to pre-war levels within 30 days, removing one of the biggest supply-side ... .. read more..
Here is what the US-Iran deal looks set to be like after another TACO moment
Friday, June 12,2026,05:24
If Iran's version of the draft is to be believed as what will be the finalised version of the deal, then it means that the US is the one who has blinked first in the game of chicken. After having said that a deal is very close to being signed for nearly 40 times, it finally looks like Trump is not simply bluffing this time around. Then again, the moment seems to be coming only after what looks to be another infamous TACO moment on his end. After months of trying, we're essentially going back to square one with the US realising that Iran is just every bit as stubborn as them on the war front. And under the circumstances, the US does not have as much leverage as they thought to get Iran to ... .. read more..
French Inflation Confirmed At 2.4%
Friday, June 12,2026,05:23
France's inflation accelerated as estimated in May on energy and services costs, final data from the statistical office INSEE showed Friday. .. read more..
Romania Inflation Rises To 10.9%, Highest Since April 2023
Friday, June 12,2026,05:22
Romania's consumer price inflation accelerated further in April to the highest level in just over three years. The consumer price index, or CPI, rose at a faster pace of 10.9 percent year-on-year in April, after a 10.7 percent increase in March. Moreover, this was the highest inflation rate since April 2023. Services costs continued to grow sharply by 13.5 percent from last year. .. read more..
Top Indian state lenders eye first dollar bonds since RBI subsidy, sources say
Friday, June 12,2026,05:07
State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda are stepping into uncharted territory as the inaugural users of the Reserve Bank of India's fresh subsidised hedging mechanism. Their target? A substantial one billion dollars through a series of five-year dollar bonds, a strategy aimed at slashing overseas borrowing expenses. .. read more..
Oil prices plunge after Iran confirms details of the deal with the US
Friday, June 12,2026,04:57
WTI crude is now down over 4% on the day, accelerating a drop after yesterday's dive lower. The drop yesterday was somewhat arrested near the 100-day moving average (red line). But now, we're seeing a firm break below that and could point to further declines in oil prices after the earlier headlines. Of note, we're seeing price action also break out of its triangle/wedge/flag pattern and that's something that could give sellers added momentum in chasing price to the downside. It will mark the first time since January that oil prices drop back below either of its key daily moving averages. So, that's an important momentum shift in terms of how the price bias is trading right now. The next ... .. read more..
Markets are cheering on the headlines but the devil may be in the details
Friday, June 12,2026,04:38
Markets are turning positive again as we see oil prices plunge alongside bond yields and stocks move up. That after Iran's Mehr News Agency reveals some key details of the memorandum of understanding draft on their end. The question now though, is this the same draft proposal put forward by the US? If so, then it surely means that Trump has conceded many key red lines that he previously - up until yesterday - have said that they will not do when agreeing to any deal. On one part of it, Trump said that: "The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalised." Meanwhile, Iran's media source is saying that the draft proposal includes a "commitment for th... .. read more..
DYWIDAG Group - DSI Holding GmbH has successfully priced a subsequent bond is...
Friday, June 12,2026,04:32
Munich, Gerrmany, June 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- DSI Holding GmbH (the " Issuer "), part of DYWIDAG Group (" DYWIDAG "), has today announced the entering into a definitive agreement to acquire Interspan (Holdings) Pty Limited a leading provider of post-tensioning and concrete repair & strengthening services in Australia, UK and Europe (the " Acquisition "). To finance part of the Acquisition, the Company has successfully priced an issuance of subsequent senior secured bonds in an amount of EUR 50 million (the " Tap Issue ") under the terms and conditions (the " Terms and Conditions ") for the Company's outstanding up to EUR 150,000,000 s... .. read more..
BlackRock says oil, FX risks loom over India's bond inflow push
Friday, June 12,2026,04:12
Indian debt is piquing the interest of foreign investors thanks to new government initiatives. Nonetheless, investment giant BlackRock remains cautious, keeping its exposure steady. Challenges like steep currency hedging expenses and volatile oil prices cast a shadow on the prospects. For foreign capital to make a significant leap into rupee-denominated bonds, a clearer geopolitical landscape is crucial to alleviate concerns. .. read more..
Hungary Industrial Output Growth Confirmed At 0.9%
Friday, June 12,2026,04:07
Hungary's industrial production expanded at a slower pace in April, as estimated initially. The volume of industrial production rose an unadjusted 0.9 percent annually in April, much slower than the 6.7 percent sharp rebound in March. The overall expansion was driven by a 0.9 percent increase in manufacturing production, while the energy industry advanced only by 0.2 percent. .. read more..
Iran media says that memorandum of understanding draft still not yet finalised
Friday, June 12,2026,04:06
The draft includes US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran US to cancel oil sanctions and release Iran's frozen funds Also includes commitment for the US to lift its naval blockade The memorandum of understanding also includes reopening of Strait of Hormuz Final negotiations after this will focus on nuclear and economic issues It will exclude discussions about Iran's missile programme If this is what Iran continues to expect from a deal with the US, then let's be real here. A deal is never going to happen. For one, the US is already not going to lift sanctions on Iran before any nuclear promises have been kept. Then, Trump has already reaffirmed that the nava... .. read more..
German Inflation Eases As Estimated
Friday, June 12,2026,04:05
Germany's inflation slowed as initially estimated in May largely reflecting the slowdown in energy price growth, final data from Destatis revealed Friday. Destatis confirmed that consumer price inflation weakened to 2.6 percent in May. Inflation eased from 2.9 percent in April, which was the highest since December 2023. .. read more..
Japan Industrial Output Recovers Less Than Estimated
Friday, June 12,2026,03:38
Japan's industrial output expanded less than initially estimated in April. Industrial production rose 0.5 percent monthly in April, reversing 2.0 percent fall in March. In the flash estimate, the rate of decrease was 0.8 percent. It was the first increase in three months. The annual decline in industrial production softened to 5.0 percent in April from 5.3 percent in March. .. read more..
Spanish inflation picks up in May, core prices also continue to nudge higher
Friday, June 12,2026,03:00
CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% HICP +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y prelim Prior +3.5%; revised to +3.6% Core CPI +3.0% y/y Prior +2.8% Spanish headline inflation is confirmed to hold above 3% in May but the real issue is the pick up in core prices once again. Core annual inflation is seen ticking higher and is touching the 3% mark now and reaffirms the broader trend across the region. As the Middle East conflict drags on, higher oil and gas prices will become more entrenched and that adds to further issues with raw material shortages and supply chain disruptions. Everything put together just points to further price increases. And as that continues to play out, it will be a problem for the ... .. read more..
UK Economy Shrinks 0.1%
Friday, June 12,2026,02:59
The UK economy contracted in April due to weakness in the services sector, the Office for National Statistics reported Friday. .. read more..
India bonds surge as oil nears 8-week low on US-Iran deal hopes
Friday, June 12,2026,02:56
Indian government bonds rallied early Friday as oil prices plunged, with Brent crude futures easing nearly 2% to $88.66 per barrel. This decline, driven by hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, boosted demand ahead of a significant debt auction. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also eased, contributing to the positive sentiment for Indian debt. .. read more..
French inflation accelerates in May as services inflation push up
Friday, June 12,2026,02:45
CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.5% Core CPI +1.5% y/y Prior +1.2% French inflation is seen picking up in May as we also see a broadening in price pressures in general. Headline annual inflation reaffirms a further increase in price pressures, with the acceleration in energy prices remaining the main culprit (+16.6%). That being said, there was also a jump in services inflation (+2.1% compared to +1.8% in April). And that stickiness remains a problem, outweighing the slight decline in food price inflation (+1.1% compared to +1.2% in April). Even on the monthly core estimate, services inflation was up by 0.4% while food price inflation was d... .. read more..
What are the main events for today?
Friday, June 12,2026,02:35
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the final French and Spanish inflation reports. The ECB yesterday hiked interest rates by 25 bps as widely expected and kept its usual data-dependent and meeting-by meeting approach. ECB sources signalled a pause in July if oil prices do not increase materially but endorsed the market pricing by saying that two more rate hikes are embedded in the projections. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we have the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and SpaceX starts trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker $SPCX. There's been a lot of hype around Space X's IPO... .. read more..
More than 17K coffee makers recalled after dozens of reported burn injuries
Friday, June 12,2026,02:25
More than 17,000 Kidisle coffee makers have been recalled after reports of burn injuries from hot liquid or steam releasing unexpectedly. .. read more..
Germany May final CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelim
Friday, June 12,2026,02:00
CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% HICP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% Core CPI +2.5% y/y Prior +2.3% No changes to the preliminary estimates there as German headline annual inflation is reaffirmed to show a minor drop in May. That being said, core annual inflation is seen nudging up to 2.5% and that is up from 2.3% in April. So, that will continue to keep ECB policymakers on their toes in navigating through the risks associated with the Middle East conflict. As things stand, there are growing upside risks to inflation and downside risks to the economy. And that kind of divergence is not the kind of thing that the central bank likes to see. Circling back to the report above,... .. read more..