Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers Tuesday featured a much weaker PPI report that failed to inspire any lasting rally in the bond market. While there were a few ways to reconcile that specific turn of events by...
Mortgage rates officially hit the highest levels since May 2024 yesterday, even though the average was almost imperceptibly higher than last Friday's. We saw a similarly small move today, but in the opposite direction. In other...
The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing logical reactions in the past when it's come in much higher or lower than expected....
“The older I get, the earlier it gets late.” It was early to bed last night for me, early to rise, since today we are heading to Austin, Texas for the Sales Rally at University Federal Credit Union. I am sure that a conversation topic...
Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness This week's relevant economic data is concentrated over the Tue-Thu time frame with Wednesday's CPI being the most obvious headliner. Today's session offered little by way of new information but...
Mortgage rates rose to the highest levels since May 2024 by the end of last week following a stronger reading on the jobs report. Technically, the same thing happened today, but only because rates inched just a bit higher from Friday's...
“An economics professor was walking with a student when the student looked down and said, ‘Look! A $50 bill!’ The professor explained, ‘That can’t be true. If it were a $50 bill someone would have already picked it up.’” Sometimes...
After last Friday's jobs report, the evaporation of Fed rate cut probability has been a common refrain. While it's true that there was an obvious shift in both long and short term rates, it was a drop in the bucket compared to...
2024 has been one of those "it is what it is" sort of years for activity in the mortgage market. There were signs of hope over the summer months as rates fell enough to make for a noticeable spike in refinance activity. But...
Mortgage rates were already at 6 month highs earlier this week so it didn't take much of a push to send them up to new 7 month highs today. The push in question came from today's hotly-anticipated jobs report. No other economic report...
Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree Today's jobs report was much stronger than expected and there were no compelling counterpoints to give traders any second thoughts. As such, traders proceeded logically by dumping...
In Los Angeles County, with 4,058 square miles of land (more than Delaware and Rhode Island combined) at least ten people have died, and more than 10,000 structures have burned and hundreds of thousands of residents are under evacuation...
The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate also improved (4.1 vs 4.2). While the Fed may have downplayed the role of the...
No Data, No Volatility Bonds were only open for half the day due to the national day of mourning for Jimmy Carter. Overnight markets made for a slightly stronger start and those gains slowly eroded throughout the day. MBS...
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds were on a shortened schedule today due to the federal day of mourning for Jimmy Carter. As such, volume and volatility were in short supply. Still, overnight market...
“My buddy’s wife complains about constantly being sexually harassed at work. He told her she can stop working from home and go back to the office if she doesn’t like it.” “Home” means a lot, especially when it is lost. The nation is...
Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due to the national day of mourning, bonds will close early at 2pm ET, and there are...
Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways Markets seemingly had a lot to get through today between economic data, the Treasury auction, and Fed Minutes. In addition, there were several headlines from Fed speakers and other policy makers...
For the second day in a row, mortgage rates have moved higher at a modest to moderate pace. Unfortunately, that's been a trend so far in 2025 and it's compounded by the fact that rates were already close to their recent highs. The net...
I can’t take credit for, “People don’t care about how much you know until they know how much you care.” Empathy and maintaining contacts are oh so important for LOs, brokers, whoever is in contact with a client. Despite mortgage rates...
Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (markets still open a half day). As such, we received it this morning along with...
The S&P 500 edged lower after hitting a record intraday high on Tuesday, as a four-day rally lost steam in thin trading and investors eyed Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were...
The S&P 500 was on track to open at all-time highs on Tuesday, building on a record-setting rally amid thin trading volumes, with investors unshaken by Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward...
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10...
U.S. Treasury yields are slgihtly higher Tuesday after the long holiday weekend as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten...
The S&P 500 index hit a record high on Monday, as strong U.S. retail sales underscored economic strength and eased worries from Omicron-driven flight cancellations that hit travel stocks....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November Excerpt: This update adds Charlotte, Columbus, Miami, New York, and Phoenix. ... Here is a summary of active listings for these housing...
Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022 . Inventory usually declines sharply over the holidays - so we will likely see new record lows next week . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on Investor Purchases of Residential Homes: Pretium Brief excerpt: "In a report last month, I wrote about how data from Redfin and CoreLogic indicated that there had been a surge in...
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2021 Below are my ten questions for 2022. These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions . The purpose of these questions is to provide...
Treasury yields fell on Monday, after the long holiday weekend, as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held below pre-pandemic levels last week as the labor market tightens, while consumer spending increased solidly, putting the economy on track for a strong finish to...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales: Record 110 thousand homes have not been started Brief excerpt: Sales, year to date in 2021, are 6.5% below sales in 2020, and new home sales in 2021 will finish solidly below sales in...
NAR expects the demand for commercial real estate to strengthen in 2022 given the strong underlying demand fundamentals in the core property markets....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story...
UK Finance has hired Lord Macpherson of Earl’s Court as a director. Macpherson will lead on private banking in his new role. He joins 19 other representatives on the UK Finance board, covering the retail, SME, wholesale and consumer...
This year has already proved to be another interesting one for the mortgage market. It seems that there are currently a lot of buyers and sellers in a Mexican standoff, as many are on the side-lines, waiting to see what happens next. In...
Accord Buy To Let has today launched new mortgages for landlords with a 40 per cent deposit. The new options include a two-year fix at 1.64 per cent for remortgaging landlords or those expanding their portfolio. It has a £1,995 product...