“Life is like a roll of toilet paper: The closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.” Just like that, 2025 is half over. With it have come changes at the GSEs, government loan programs, and the compliance landscape. In his latest...
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somewhat more debatable with headline levels slightly stronger than expected, but...
Steady Gains in the PM Hours It's common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in the PM hours and today's quarter-end session was no exception. A glut of bond buying just after 12:30pm got the part started and...
April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's." Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time. Just a few days ago, we noted there was still a ways to go before breaking below...
“The seminar ‘How to avoid frauds’ is canceled. Tickets are non-refundable.” Mortgage fraud is alive and well in the United States. In Utah, Kouri Richins, 35, the Kamas mother who is accused of killing her husband and writing a...
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the notion that market move for logical underlying reasons. To be fair, month-end...
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture After a decent mid-day recover, bonds gave up their gains heading into the 3pm close. It's a level of weakness that demands no explanation in the bigger picture--especially...
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average. At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since early April when it hit 6.60%. If you're thinking that 6.72 doesn't sound much higher...
Does anyone pay with cash anymore, or actually have the money in their bank account? Credit card debt is now $1.1 trillion. There is even a credit card just for automotive repairs! With those “Buy Now Pay Later” arrangements being added...
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates....
New Home Sales fell sharply in May according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. After a brief surge in April, the seasonally adjusted annual pace dropped to 623,000—down 13.7% from April's revised reading of...
Mortgage application activity moved slightly higher last week despite a modest uptick in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the...
Two months ago, existing home sales reached the highest levels in a year according to the National Association of Realtors. Last month’s report showed a noticeable dip to 5‑month lows. The latest data, released June 23, is more subdued....
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed's favorite inflation index and despite causing some notable drama in the past, PCE...
The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore." All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to...
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains...
“I've been experimenting with breeding racing deer. People have accused me of just trying to make a fast buck.” There are no fast bucks to be made in residential lending, and the correct compensation is a continuing topic. (A recent...
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matter to the seasoned bond watcher (Durable Goods, GDP, etc). But as it stands, the biggest...
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure that took bonds into modestly weaker territory. It turns out it was so light that it was easy for bond buyers to get back on top...
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week. Two additional days of modest improvement brings us to the lowest levels since April 4th as of...
AI doesn’t have an NMLS number. (Zillow has never, ever set foot in a house for that matter.) Do you own a computer? Most in lending do. Elon Musk? I guess not. A courtroom twist in Musk's war with OpenAI has revealed a stunningly...
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance. While there's always some chance that Powell will say something...
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone struck by Powell in today's congressional testimony. To be clear, we wouldn't say it was dovish in an outright sense, but when...
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore...
Yesterday saw mortgage rates fall to the best levels since early May. Now, today, we'd have to go all the way back to the end of April to find anything lower. Are the changes massive? Not by a long shot, but it sounds/looks...
Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. While Powell certainly stopped short of echoing the more dovish...
The S&P 500 edged lower after hitting a record intraday high on Tuesday, as a four-day rally lost steam in thin trading and investors eyed Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were...
The S&P 500 was on track to open at all-time highs on Tuesday, building on a record-setting rally amid thin trading volumes, with investors unshaken by Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward...
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10...
U.S. Treasury yields are slgihtly higher Tuesday after the long holiday weekend as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten...
The S&P 500 index hit a record high on Monday, as strong U.S. retail sales underscored economic strength and eased worries from Omicron-driven flight cancellations that hit travel stocks....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November Excerpt: This update adds Charlotte, Columbus, Miami, New York, and Phoenix. ... Here is a summary of active listings for these housing...
Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022 . Inventory usually declines sharply over the holidays - so we will likely see new record lows next week . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on Investor Purchases of Residential Homes: Pretium Brief excerpt: "In a report last month, I wrote about how data from Redfin and CoreLogic indicated that there had been a surge in...
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2021 Below are my ten questions for 2022. These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions . The purpose of these questions is to provide...
Treasury yields fell on Monday, after the long holiday weekend, as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held below pre-pandemic levels last week as the labor market tightens, while consumer spending increased solidly, putting the economy on track for a strong finish to...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales: Record 110 thousand homes have not been started Brief excerpt: Sales, year to date in 2021, are 6.5% below sales in 2020, and new home sales in 2021 will finish solidly below sales in...