Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling The bad news is that bonds resumed their weaker tendencies today with 10yr yields moving back up into the 4.6's. Culprits included stronger economic data, hawkish Fed comments, and...
Tuesday marked the highest mortgage rates since November, capping a mini surge that began after last week's inflation data. After a moderate improvement yesterday, rates moved back up toward (but thankfully not above) the recent highs...
After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields. It looked the losses were set to be more modest at the beginning of the day, but...
What loan officer hasn’t had a memorable co-signing experience? Some more so than others. Along those lines, if you head to Disneyland or Disneyworld, and find bone chips or ashes on the floor of your favorite ride, it is probably not an...
Too Soon to Say Higher Yields Are Bringing Buyers? Bonds enjoyed their best day in more than a month and a half on Wednesday, which can't help but beg the question: why? Days like today require a process of elimination and some...
Mortgage rates moved lower today after hitting the highest levels since mid November yesterday. Some lenders were down as much as an eighth of a percent, which is on the bigger side for a day-over-day change for conventional 30yr...
“We base our business model on lots of things, but not on our ability to predict rates.” Remember when there used to be “a flight to quality” when there was world unrest, and investors put their money into dollar-denominated assets? Long...
The bond market is getting off to a stronger start today despite an absence of any new motivations in the news or economic calendar. In fact, the calendar is essentially empty when it comes to market movers. While we could...
Mortgage interest rates rose for the second straight week, and so did the volume of mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, increased 3.3 percent on an...
The bad times keep rolling for mortgage rates with the average conventional 30yr fixed rate back up to 7.5% according to our daily index. This is quite a bit higher than the major weekly indices for a few reasons. First, the...
Powell Confirms What The Bond Market Already Knew Morning hours were frustrating for the bond market as we watched yields move to new multi-month highs for no obvious reason. That said, the notion of a "re-pricing" sell-off doesn't...
While builder confidence in the market for new residential construction improved in March, it remained flat in April and residential construction numbers showed a decline in momentum as well. Residential construction starts, which had...
“Congratulations to the Kardashians on their 20th season. And to me for never having watched a single minute of a single episode.” There are certainly more important things in life, like the rising cost of homeowner’s insurance, and the...
Yesterday's commentary pulled an occasionally used phrase off the shelf by referring to recent weakness as a "repricing" in the broader bond market. This is an intentional migration from one rate reality to another. These...
In 2023, there were multiple examples of mortgage rates moving up by roughly half a percent in a relatively short amount of time (1-3 weeks). Since the big shift in November, we've only seen one similar example and it was more of a...
Data-Driven Repricing Continues There are two kinds of "repricing" to consider when you're a mortgage market professional: the intraday change in rates among lenders when market move enough and the broader bond market shifting gears in...
The bond market sold off steadily and gradually overnight session despite news of escalation between Iran and Israel. Ever since the start of the war in Ukraine, we've seen a different reaction function than we're used to when it...
No one is getting any younger, not even Clint Eastwood. Time marches on, as does, apparently, the cost of mailing a letter. The post office wants to jack the price of a stamp to 73 cents from 68 cents which took effect in January. But...
Time to Hurry Up and Wait Again Friday ended up being reasonably pleasant, but mostly uneventful. Gains were in place from the overnight session on a combination of European economic data and central banker comments. ...
Wednesday was one of the worst days in decades in terms of single-day upward movement in mortgage rates. Thursday added a bit more insult to the injury. The resulting levels were the highest since November 2023. We...
When I win the lottery, I am going to buy one of these to heat my blankets at home. Of course, that would mean that I will have to start playing the lottery, so until then I’ll just have to rely on my cat Myrtle to prep things. Just...
Bonds began the overnight session in modestly stronger territory but the gains started adding up in earnest after European markets opened for the day. A slew of respectable inflation readings and another survey on inflation...
The S&P 500 edged lower after hitting a record intraday high on Tuesday, as a four-day rally lost steam in thin trading and investors eyed Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were...
The S&P 500 was on track to open at all-time highs on Tuesday, building on a record-setting rally amid thin trading volumes, with investors unshaken by Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward...
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10...
U.S. Treasury yields are slgihtly higher Tuesday after the long holiday weekend as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten...
The S&P 500 index hit a record high on Monday, as strong U.S. retail sales underscored economic strength and eased worries from Omicron-driven flight cancellations that hit travel stocks....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November Excerpt: This update adds Charlotte, Columbus, Miami, New York, and Phoenix. ... Here is a summary of active listings for these housing...
Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022 . Inventory usually declines sharply over the holidays - so we will likely see new record lows next week . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on Investor Purchases of Residential Homes: Pretium Brief excerpt: "In a report last month, I wrote about how data from Redfin and CoreLogic indicated that there had been a surge in...
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2021 Below are my ten questions for 2022. These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions . The purpose of these questions is to provide...
Treasury yields fell on Monday, after the long holiday weekend, as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held below pre-pandemic levels last week as the labor market tightens, while consumer spending increased solidly, putting the economy on track for a strong finish to...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales: Record 110 thousand homes have not been started Brief excerpt: Sales, year to date in 2021, are 6.5% below sales in 2020, and new home sales in 2021 will finish solidly below sales in...
NAR expects the demand for commercial real estate to strengthen in 2022 given the strong underlying demand fundamentals in the core property markets....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story...
UK Finance has hired Lord Macpherson of Earl’s Court as a director. Macpherson will lead on private banking in his new role. He joins 19 other representatives on the UK Finance board, covering the retail, SME, wholesale and consumer...
This year has already proved to be another interesting one for the mortgage market. It seems that there are currently a lot of buyers and sellers in a Mexican standoff, as many are on the side-lines, waiting to see what happens next. In...