Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113k, and a previous reading of 254k. If those were the only facts you knew, on almost any other jobs report day in the...
It is our longstanding policy to strictly avoid politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for rates. Now is clearly one of those times. The discussion that follows contains no opinion...
Not only do most states “gain an hour” Sunday, but I have good news for all my readers. I am getting stronger with age. I can now lift $100 worth of groceries with one hand! Speaking of which, time flies and Thanksgiving will be here...
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k previous reading, even after considering the potential disruptions from hurricanes and...
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention? It's been a weird week so far with a crazy combination of significant intraday volatility and an absence of any major movement in the bigger picture. Case in point, closing levels...
Mortgage rates rates moved moderately higher today, and while that leaves the average 30yr fixed rate only slightly higher than it was on Tuesday morning (7.09 vs 7.08), it's also the highest rate in almost exactly 4 months. In a break...
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that much about economic data right now. That would be quite the anomaly considering...
I recently went to my favorite local Mexican restaurant, and there was a sign in the window, “Sorry, we are closed due to short staff.” Someone had written below it, “Higher taller staff because I want a taco.” Economics and interest...
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given the 233k vs 115k result in the ADP Employment data. Granted, ADP is a notoriously imperfect predictor of the NFP number...
The jobs report that came out at the beginning of October was a big wake up call for interest rates. Up until then, the prevailing belief was that the labor market was progressively softening and perhaps at risk of softening too...
As I head from Denver to the Bay Area early this morning, I thought to myself, “Why are corn farmers great at eavesdropping? Because they have ears everywhere!” Heard in the hallways in Denver. “It sure has become obvious that what got...
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slightly weaker (2.8 vs 3.0) but with higher core inflation seen in core PCE prices...
Mortgage rates tend to be updated only once per day. Lenders set rates based on trading levels in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) which are essentially bonds that are tied to cash flows from groups of mortgages. MBS move...
Heard in the hallways here at the MBA’s annual convention in December. “I wonder if the MBA’s volume estimate of $2.3 trillion for 2025 includes all of the hard money deals that I’m doing? Me and every broker I know is doing them: why...
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic data moving markets. That changed in an obvious way over the past 2 years and...
Bonds Doing What Bonds Do Another week, another chance for bonds to do the only thing it seems like they know how to do recently: sell off. It actually didn't look like a foregone conclusion this morning. Bonds were only...
It's no mystery that mortgage rates have had a terrible October. As of last Friday, the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rates were up to 6.90--an increase of more than 0.625% this month. Today's 0.10% increase brings the...
Thousands of lenders and vendors braved the gate lice to fly to Denver (the term for people who crowd around the gate at an airport, sometimes in an attempt to board early). Critics of Denver will tell you that it is “Kansas with a view...
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From here on out, the move toward higher yields will be justified by the data. ...
The S&P 500 edged lower after hitting a record intraday high on Tuesday, as a four-day rally lost steam in thin trading and investors eyed Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were...
The S&P 500 was on track to open at all-time highs on Tuesday, building on a record-setting rally amid thin trading volumes, with investors unshaken by Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward...
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10...
U.S. Treasury yields are slgihtly higher Tuesday after the long holiday weekend as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten...
The S&P 500 index hit a record high on Monday, as strong U.S. retail sales underscored economic strength and eased worries from Omicron-driven flight cancellations that hit travel stocks....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November Excerpt: This update adds Charlotte, Columbus, Miami, New York, and Phoenix. ... Here is a summary of active listings for these housing...
Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022 . Inventory usually declines sharply over the holidays - so we will likely see new record lows next week . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on Investor Purchases of Residential Homes: Pretium Brief excerpt: "In a report last month, I wrote about how data from Redfin and CoreLogic indicated that there had been a surge in...
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2021 Below are my ten questions for 2022. These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions . The purpose of these questions is to provide...
Treasury yields fell on Monday, after the long holiday weekend, as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held below pre-pandemic levels last week as the labor market tightens, while consumer spending increased solidly, putting the economy on track for a strong finish to...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales: Record 110 thousand homes have not been started Brief excerpt: Sales, year to date in 2021, are 6.5% below sales in 2020, and new home sales in 2021 will finish solidly below sales in...
NAR expects the demand for commercial real estate to strengthen in 2022 given the strong underlying demand fundamentals in the core property markets....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story...
UK Finance has hired Lord Macpherson of Earl’s Court as a director. Macpherson will lead on private banking in his new role. He joins 19 other representatives on the UK Finance board, covering the retail, SME, wholesale and consumer...
This year has already proved to be another interesting one for the mortgage market. It seems that there are currently a lot of buyers and sellers in a Mexican standoff, as many are on the side-lines, waiting to see what happens next. In...
Accord Buy To Let has today launched new mortgages for landlords with a 40 per cent deposit. The new options include a two-year fix at 1.64 per cent for remortgaging landlords or those expanding their portfolio. It has a £1,995 product...
The global head of Pepper Group has said a takeover by US private equity firm KKR would allow the business in the UK to build on its presence in the residential mortgage market. The board of the Australian non-bank lender, which includes...