Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data Bonds were stronger overnight with 10yr yields hitting roughly 4.25% even before this morning's economic data came out. Now at the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields are...
The interest rate market continues the healing process after taking heavy damage in October. During the course of that month, the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate increased more than 0.75% and broke above 7.0% for the...
“Rob, my borrowers would be really happy with rates below 7 percent. When will we get there?” A wise economist with the MBA once told me, “If you’re going to give a number, don’t give a date. If you’re going to give a date, don’t give a...
Although this morning contained the week's most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses in the bond market, both in terms of volume and volatility. Disclaimer: there is...
No Major Data. No Major Drama While today's economic calendar was not necessarily "empty," it may as well have been in terms of market movement potential. Home prices came in hotter according to FHFA, but bonds never care about...
Although there was a busier calendar of economic data today, mortgage rates are little changed after dropping at the fastest pace in several weeks to start the new week. Economic data is one of the main sources of motivation for the bond...
“If there's anyone out there who has no family and is planning to stay home alone this Thanksgiving, please let me know. I need to borrow some chairs.” Kind of cute… What isn’t cute is that the MBA has reduced its production forecast for...
Even on a good day, the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report has a notoriously wide margin of error. But today's 12.8% margin of error isn't even the best counterpoint to today's ostensibly alarming 17.3% month over month...
There are two key, big picture home price indices in the U.S. They come out every month, but with a 2 month lag. That means we're getting September's prices today. The two indices are: S&P Case Shiller, which...
Monday brought a rare event for the bond market in the recent context as yields fell throughout the day and never really thought about bouncing. It was all the more uncommon because the rally was fairly large and it didn't come in...
Come For The Big Rally, Stay For The Staying Power Bonds rallied sharply on Monday. It wasn't the first time we've seen some decent gains in the past few months, but it was definitely the first time we didn't need to grease the...
Last Monday, mortgage rates were near the highest levels in more than 3 months. A week later, and the average lender is right in line with the lowest levels in more than a month. There are two reasons for this, or rather, one...
“Pro tip” to start the week: Be sure to bring up politics at your family's Thanksgiving dinner. You'll save a lot of money on Christmas gifts. A tip that I posted last week received a lot of thanks: If your business is an LLC or...
Of all of Trump's political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market ("Treasury" is right in the title, after all!). Bessent got the nod on Friday night after the close, so there was no opportunity to...
Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway After a decidedly abnormal 6 weeks beginning in early October, bonds began to calm down last week. This offered some hope that the brisk volatility and selling pressure was...
Starting in early October, mortgage rates experienced significant volatility, meaning the average day over day change was much bigger than normal. While the term "volatility" technically allows for larger-than-normal moves in...
The bond market has been forced to take the victories that are within reach. As November winds down, the best victory we could have hoped for was the absence of any additional defeat. This has been a perfectly successful week...
Want a house for a dollar? Italy has them… figure out the impact on comps for appraisals! To the best of my knowledge, my cat Myrtle never lived in Italy before she was adopted, or even traveled there. Plenty of people will be traveling...
Another Flat Day, This Time With Data While it would be an overstatement to say that bonds have fully outgrown the phase of volatility that's dominated October and early November, it's not unfair to say that volatility has been subsiding...
They may not be low. In fact, they may still be a lot higher than you want, but at least they haven't been too volatility this week. For the 7th day in a row, the top tier, conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day...
As you may have gleaned from our coverage of new home sales, construction, builder confidence, and mortgage apps recently, there are only so many ways to describe the same phenomenon. Today's report on October's Existing Home Sales...
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to improve a bit more after the 8:30am...
This morning I head from Columbia, MO (“COMO”… big thumb’s up for Sophia’s Italian) to Kansas City for the KC MBA luncheon. I have seen very few Teslas on the road. “Bill Gates and Elon Musk should team-up and make a medicine to treat...
The S&P 500 edged lower after hitting a record intraday high on Tuesday, as a four-day rally lost steam in thin trading and investors eyed Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were...
The S&P 500 was on track to open at all-time highs on Tuesday, building on a record-setting rally amid thin trading volumes, with investors unshaken by Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures....( read more ) Forward...
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10...
U.S. Treasury yields are slgihtly higher Tuesday after the long holiday weekend as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten...
The S&P 500 index hit a record high on Monday, as strong U.S. retail sales underscored economic strength and eased worries from Omicron-driven flight cancellations that hit travel stocks....( read more ) Forward this article via...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November Excerpt: This update adds Charlotte, Columbus, Miami, New York, and Phoenix. ... Here is a summary of active listings for these housing...
Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022 . Inventory usually declines sharply over the holidays - so we will likely see new record lows next week . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More on Investor Purchases of Residential Homes: Pretium Brief excerpt: "In a report last month, I wrote about how data from Redfin and CoreLogic indicated that there had been a surge in...
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2021 Below are my ten questions for 2022. These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions . The purpose of these questions is to provide...
Treasury yields fell on Monday, after the long holiday weekend, as investors assessed the omicron threat....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held below pre-pandemic levels last week as the labor market tightens, while consumer spending increased solidly, putting the economy on track for a strong finish to...
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales: Record 110 thousand homes have not been started Brief excerpt: Sales, year to date in 2021, are 6.5% below sales in 2020, and new home sales in 2021 will finish solidly below sales in...
NAR expects the demand for commercial real estate to strengthen in 2022 given the strong underlying demand fundamentals in the core property markets....( read more ) Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story...
UK Finance has hired Lord Macpherson of Earl’s Court as a director. Macpherson will lead on private banking in his new role. He joins 19 other representatives on the UK Finance board, covering the retail, SME, wholesale and consumer...