U.S. National Security and Military News Review

Asian shares tick up, eyes on China-U.S. trade relations - Reuters

Sun, 24 May 2020 21:42:39 -0400

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Beyonce, Questlove, Scorpions, and the CIA.: Music podcasts for a long weekend's binge - The Philadelphia Inquirer

Sun, 24 May 2020 21:42:02 -0400

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Eurasia Review: COVID-19 And Chinese Song Diplomacy – OpEd

Keerthiraj* — Sun, 24 May 2020 21:32:05 -0400

“China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will move the world.” This is how the French emperor Napoleon Bonaparte predicted about China almost two centuries ago! It has been many years since the Chinese dragon woke up from its sleep and started spoiling the sleep of other nation-states. But I am not here to write about Napoleon’s prediction on China. This article is about an attempt by China to put Philippines to a long emotional sleep by a diplomatic Siren Song!

Don’t get me wrong, I am not referring to Song dynasty, which ruled Chinese land once upon a time! They have nothing to do with this issue. This article is all about a music video that was released by the Chinese Embassy in Manila, the capital city of the Philippines.

The music video released on April 23, 2020, contained a song written by Chinese Ambassador H.E Huang Xilan. The title of the song is ‘Iisang Dagat‘, which means ‘one sea’ and the song in fact implied something about a ‘shared destiny’ of China and Philippines.

This video song was dedicated for all those who participated in the fight against the COVID-19 spread. Shortly after the video was released on YouTube, thousands of people disliked the video! The video received more than two hundred thousand dislikes, while the number of likes doesn’t exceed four thousand! (As of the time of writing this article, it has 216,000 dislikes compared to just 3,900 likes)

What went wrong? We don’t find anything contentious in the scenery of the video or its dedication to Corona warriors. And the song and the singing voice are not that bad to get the shower of dislikes! The song, however, caused some controversy in the Philippines and set the stage for Filipinos to express their suppressed anti-China feelings.

To understand this, we have to get a clear picture of Chinese foreign policy in South China Sea region. Philippines expressed diplomatic protests against China on two incidents, just before the release of this song.

The first incident was on February 17, where the Chinese navy pointed a radar gun at a Philippine ship, that too in Philippine waters! This was a serious blow to Filipino self-respect as a nation. In response Foreign Secretary of the Philippines, Teodoro Locsin Jr. warned China that, “Never ever point anything at my country unless you’re looking for a fight.” This challenge from Philippines to giant China tells all about the frustration levels of Filipinos. In addition to this, the second protest came from Philippines when China occupied two Philippine territories and renamed them as “Nansha” and “Xisha”.

The song ‘Iisang Dagat’ is an strategy of emotional diplomacy to cover up China’s hoaxes in the South China Sea and to build goodwill in the minds of Filipinos. This is actually sophisticated song diplomacy! An English proverb says, “Don’t steal your friend, when he is in the hospital”. But Chinese foreign policy believes in hospitalizing a friend in order to rob him. You don’t have to be an expert to understand, what low Chinese foreign policy can get to achieve its objectives. History tells everything!

It is clear that ‘Iisang Dagat’ is not just a song; it is a diplomatic effort to put Filipinos to an emotional sleep. China has been very consistent in showing its goodness in an effort to lure Filipinos.

Through providing medical assistance, medical products, exchange of medical expertise etc., China initially scored pretty well. The video release of the song ‘Iisang Dagat’ was an extended program of the same strategy. But this time Filipinos are done with all this Chinese drama and started to look at every Chinese attempt to gain goodwill with suspicion and contempt.

When the whole world is facing a critical situation of COVID-19, China silently carried out its Song diplomacy to get some profit out of this crisis. It reminds me Winston Churchill’s statement, “Never let a good crisis go to waste”. But this time it’s not just a warning to Philippines, but to the whole global community against China’s malicious diplomacy.

*Keerthiraj, Faculty of Political Science & International Relations at Alliance School of Law, Alliance University, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India

The post COVID-19 And Chinese Song Diplomacy – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Kirby Jenner, the 'fraternal twin' of Kendall Jenner, steps into the spotlight on Quibi - CNN

Sun, 24 May 2020 21:32:00 -0400

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Eurasia Review: Ideology And Coronavirus – OpEd

Eric Zuesse — Sun, 24 May 2020 21:17:50 -0400

There are two polar-opposite approaches for dealing with the challenge of coronavirus-19: libertarian proposals prioritize the economy above the public’s health, whereas socialist proposals prioritize the public’s health above the economy. Libertarian countries rely on developing “herd immunity” to the disease, in preference to imposing social distancing and “lockdowns,” which aim instead to reduce the spread of the infection.

Unlike socialist measures, the “herd immunity” approach doesn’t need any regulations, because it allows the disease to spread so that the people who survive it will become predominant; it allows survival-of-the-fittest to take its course, so as to develop a ‘strong herd’.

Social distancing, etc., countervail that goal, by protecting the public from the virus. To use both approaches simultaneously is to contradict oneself. Developing a “herd immunity” to coronavirus-19 (or Covid-19) might turn out to be impossible, but, if it is possible, then the only way to do it is to “let nature take its course.” Anyone who isn’t naturally immune to the infection must be immunized against it; and, since there isn’t yet any effective vaccine against this virus, everyone who catches the disease mustn’t be isolated, but instead going out among the public in order to expose as many people as possible to the contagion, so as to enable non-immune people to die-off, and thus to leave only the immune people.

This approach is considered to be optimum for the owners of corporations, because it allows them to continue doing business and making profit, regardless of how many employees aren’t showing up for work — any such employees will simply be replaced. Only workers and consumers suffer the disease, death, and other losses — that’s how the libertarian approach works. It is maximum freedom, for the owners of corporations.

Among the countries that immediately rejected the libertarian approach were Taiwan, China, South Korea, Japan, and Venezuela, all five of which nations took the socialistic approach even at the very start. In an article on May 11th, I documented the astounding success of those five countries (Taiwan, China, South Korea, Japan, and Venezuela) in dealing with this crisis, and the equally astounding failure of the libertarian United States in dealing with it, and you can see all of that there, with links to all of the evidence. (And here is where all nations’ data on Covid-19 today can be found and compared, all together on one page, so that the performance of each nation can easily be compared with that of every other nation and with the global averages — it’s the daily international scorecard on coronavirus-perfomance.)

The libertarian approach minimizes the imposition of regulations, and instead relies on “nature” to take its course, “survival of the fittest,” as being the best way to ‘protect the herd’. It’s opposite to the socialist approach, which consists of governmentally imposed rules, or “laws,” that aim to minimize the amount of suffering — not only of the corporate owners, but of the entire public.

Of course, every country has laws, but in a socialist country, the government’s right to make and enforce laws is more respected, whereas in a libertarian country, the right of individuals (and especially of stockholders) to violate laws is more respected. This has nothing to do with the distinction between dictatorship and democracy. For example, Marxist countries, such as was the Soviet Union, are dictatorial socialist, whereas democratic socialist countries such as is Denmark, are, indeed, democratic, not at all dictatorial. And fascist countries, such as the three Axis powers during WW II were, are dictatorial libertarian (or dictatorial capitalist).

Another word for “libertarian” is simply “capitalist” or “free-market,” but no country is entirely free-market, not even those Axis countries were: capitalistic countries only favor the rights of capital — the owners of corporations — above the rights of workers and consumers, and so respect property-rights above civil rights (the rights of workers and consumers) and therefore they allow corporations much more freedom to abuse and cheat their workers and consumers — that’s a freer market; it is laissez faire.

(Capitalism is the same as corporationism, because it refers to the owners of corporations: the “capitalists.” In capitalism, only the owners are actually represented; workers and consumers are not represented but only manipulated — or else any resisting or incompetent workers are fired — by the owners. Corporations were invented around the year 1600 so as to transfer all personal criminal liability away from owners onto their workers and customers, so that only workers and customers could become sentenced to prison. Prior to 1600, only bankers enjoyed such limited liability. Stockholders and bondholders have limited liability — they’re liable only for monetary losses up to the extent of what they have invested in the corporation, but not for any crimes that their employees and other agents of the corporation perpetrate on behalf of further enriching the corporation’s owners. That’s the limited-liability function, for which corporations were invented: it protects owners from liability for crimes that their agents are paid to commit on their behalf. Whereas mere employees can lose everything including their lives, owners can lose only what they have invested in the corporation. For example: America has the world’s highest percentage of its residents who are in prisons, and virtually none of its prisoners own, or even control, any corporation. In fact, almost all of them are poor. This is a libertarian country.)

Consequently, applying the terms “socialist” versus “libertarian” here concerns the extent to which the government sets the rules regarding what is considered acceptable in order to protect the public from coronavirus-19 infection, versus the extent to which violation of such rules is considered to be acceptable. In a country where violation of the governmentally established rules is treated as being acceptable, there are effectively fewer actual rules and enforcement of rules than in a country which has been adhering more to socialism regarding Covid-19 policy.

A libertarian country is more accepting of law-violators regarding coronavirus policy, than is a socialist country, regardless of whether or not a given country is democratic or dictatorial. For example, Denmark is socialist but democratic, whereas Cuba is socialist but dictatorial; and Switzerland is capitalist but democratic, whereas today’s United States is capitalist but dictatorial. Whereas both America and Switzerland are libertarian, both Cuba and Denmark are socialist. But no country fits 100% into any of those categories; in politics, everything is only a matter of degree, never (except, perhaps, under the Axis powers during WW II) actually polar on a given measure (and those — the Axis powers — were 100% capitalist; i.e., pure libertarian, meaning that workers and consumers had no rights — only the powerful did).

On May 13th, Axios headlined “Coronavirus likely forced 27 million off their health insurance” and reported an analysis which estimated this to be the number of persons who had lost their health insurance in America because of the soaring unemployment which has thus far resulted from the virus. On 10 September 2019 — just prior to the virus — the Wall Street Journal had reported “The number of Americans without health insurance climbed to 27.5 million in 2018,” and so the total number of health-uninsured Americans now is around 55 million, which is 17% of Americans — and many of America’s “health-insured” have only extremely limited health ‘insurance’, so that perhaps only 50% have health-insurance which is actually comparable to what 100% of the residents in all other industrialized nations (in all of which, healthcare is a right instead of a privilege) have.

The fewer people who have health-insurance, the larger percentage of the public will need the income from work in order to be able to pay for their healthcare, and this makes them virtual slaves of their employers. It’s for reasons like this that the American model is extraordinarily libertarian, and that this model results in almost a third of the entire world’s Covid-19 cases currently being in the United States, which has only 4.2% of the world’s population.

The Axios report closed: “The coronavirus is blowing up health insurance at a time when people need it most.” Destroying health-insurance will inevitably increase Covid-19 deaths. Since America is the only industrialized nation where there are residents who don’t have any health insurance, America is an extreme case, which is extremely likely to be the worst industrialized nation during the coronavirus crisis. After all: even a non-citizen resident can receive or transmit a communicable infection. America is systematically the most vulnerable industrialized country for any communicable disease to thrive and spread. And this shows up in America’s shortened life-spans.

As I headlined at Strategic Culture on May 5th, “America’s design causes it to fail the coronavirus-19 challenge.”

That is why the chief U.S. scientist who was responsible for advising the Government on the coronavirus-19 threat got booted by the Trump Administration and then on May 14th warned the U.S. Congress “that without a stronger federal response, the coronavirus threatens to make 2020 the ‘darkest winter in modern history’.”

As I argued on May 11th:

In other words: the supposed either-or choice (trade-off) that the libertarian U.S. regime and its propagandists assert, between either controlling the epidemic (continuing the “lockdowns” etc.) or else preventing economic collapse (“reopening the businesses” etc.), is fraudulent. The exact opposite is the actual case: in order to minimize the economic damage, controlling the epidemic is basic — whatever is sound policy for the public’s health is also sound economic policy.

The post Ideology And Coronavirus – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Sun, 24 May 2020 21:17:27 -0400

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Eurasia Review: ‘Understanding The War Industry’ – Book Review

Eric Walberg — Sun, 24 May 2020 21:14:34 -0400

Christian Sorensen’s ambitious Understanding the War Industry documents the US war economy with zest. It’s a dull, monotonous topic but vitally important, and he manages to make it interesting. You see the military-industrial-political complex as a vast, complex hive, embedded in the larger economic monster called the United States.

That union has always been tenuous, from the revolution to the civil war and today, requiring enemies to keep very different groups in line. Ironically, since it kicked the British out, the US (i.e., the colonial settler regime) is the one country in the world that has never been threatened by external enemies, making enemy-production the driving force behind the military (always on guard).

The US is not at all like, say, Russia or Iran, countries that have experienced horrible invasions more than once. Another irony here: compare Russian and Iranian military spending, indeed add up all the world’s military spending, and you will see that the enemyless US outspends them all added together.

How best to understand why a country with no enemies is constantly preparing for and fighting wars, wasting untold trillions, with only negative results (death, maiming, environmental degradation, pollution …). Name me just one positive outcome from just the past two decades, the past half-century?

Sicko

Clearly the patient is sick. But is it the war industry to blame? And is the illness an addiction, like heroin? Yes, heroin is produced in record quantities and distributed with the help of the war machine. But addictions can be controlled, and they only affect a small minority of the population. It’s possible to ‘just say no,’ though when a patient is sick with a real disease, heroin is at least some comfort.

Sorensen compares the war industry to a cancer. Given the current viral pandemic, I think a virus is a better metaphor, and it is not the war industry per se that is the virus, but capitalism. It is capitalism’s logic of expansion, conquest, exploitation that drives the war machine.

Cancer isn’t contagious, like capitalism with its profit and consumerism fetishes. There is no pandemic of cancer, like the coronavirus now spreading uncontrolled around the world. The virus, very tiny and not even ‘alive’, replicating exponentially and mutating as needed, is the perfect analogue for capitalism, which is unseen, inhuman, and infects people without their knowing.

So don’t blame the war machine or think of it as a mysterious, spontaneous, malignant growth. Capitalism is a kind of deus ex machina, highly contagious, infecting and debilitating and even killing the victim. War and the war industry are merely the most horrible symptoms of the virus.

What is the nature of the virus? Where did it come from? How does it replicate? These are the questions driving scientists and politicians with respect to corona, and inspired Marx and are driving Sorensen and me in analysis of our ills.

Marx diagnosed the industrial world of the 19th century. He identified the new disease as capitalism, exploitation of man by man, and prescribed a radical cure: revolt and the control of the means of production by the 99% of society who are the working people that make up society. The cure was/is not easy, but the broad outlines included an end to war and exploitation.

How the virus works

Here are a few examples from Sorensen of how it replicates. Federal departments are encouraged to allocate 25% of procurement funds to small business. How thoughtful. Isn’t that Adam Smith at work: help small business against the big monopolies, keep capitalism healthy? The War Department (note: not ‘defense’ or ‘peace’) spends more for small business contracts than any other government department. But these contracts by definition don’t need to be competitive. So the military is from the start padded at the cellular level.

But worse, ‘small’ is often not at all small. Corporations hold on to ‘small business’ classification long after they become large. Furthermore, a large corporation can use a smaller subsidiary to enable contracting as a small business, even though the parent company is a behemoth. Large corporations can sign up for the Pentagon’s Mentor Protege Program to help small businesses, giving the big fish the chance to partner or swallow (merge with) the little fish. Let’s not even bother mentioning contracts with universities, and how that poisons the well of applied knowledge. A failing grade from Adam Smith.

Or the cooptation of native Americans, although theirs is somewhat of a success story. The war machine is actually communism-in-action (for the military). You join, get fed and clothed, excel, and get respect for being a brave soldier. Natives have shone in the military ever since they were virtually wiped out and left destitute. They (and blacks and hispanics) join up at twice the proportion of the population. They see a glimmer of communism and like it.

Their tribal traditions of valour and battle were harnessed to the beast. Like small businesses, native companies get preferential treatment. But just as the virus of capitalism turns sh*t into gold, it turns gold into sh*t too. The tribes can sell services to the military, but often just farm them out to others, adding an extra layer of bureaucracy to earn a ‘profit’, like the notorious health maintenance organizations (HMOs) fleecing the country ‘for a good cause’.

Or like the bureaucracy in the Soviet Union, the bane of any attempt to replace capitalism. Plagued by bureaucratic inertia, the final period in the Soviet Union from Brezhnev to Gorbachev, was called ‘real existing socialism’, which was derided as neither ‘real’ nor ‘existing’. This is exactly where communism-for-the-War-Department is today in the US. There is no ‘war’, but there is no lack of bureaucracy.

Another irony: the War Department has never submitted annual audits (any audits) as all federal departments are supposed to. Congress finally passed the Chief Financial Officers Act in 1990, just as the Soviet Union was bureaucracy run mad, teetering on the edge of collapse, not a threat to anyone but itself.

The coast was clear, but would this timid step be a signal that the beast’s days were numbered, that it would finally be brought to account? Though the results were only of a small sampling of the monster’s activities, the grade was a failure, even though the auditors were all clients of the war machine and did their best to dot the i’s. Auditors didn’t find any evidence of fraud in a system inherently fraudulent, wasteful and abusive. Pigs really do fly.

As with the end of WWII, the collapse of communism was supposed to lead to a peace dividend. In both cases, within less than a year, war budgets of the beast were increasing. (For the Soviet Union in 1945, and for Russia in 1991, there was a peace dividend, as it was devastated in both cases, and had no help from the beast to rebuild its shattered economy.)

Sorensen served in the military and explains that ‘veteran’ is as loose a term as ‘small business’. Many (most?) ‘vets’ never leave the US, or just hang out in Europe, Korea or Japan for a few years. ‘Disabled’ is equally loose, as all vets-to-be are encouraged to bargain for some level of ‘disability’ to maximize their pensions and other perks upon retirement. You can retire after 10 years and run a small business as ‘disabled, veteran-owned’.

The disease affects different people differently. If you are really big and control lots of resources (US, Germany), you tend to become a bully, stealing from others or enslaving them to give you even more goodies. If you get lazy, you can farm out the work to willing servant-slaves (China, Bangladesh, etc.).

What holds the lesser mortals in toe is of course a big fist. And the longer you dominate, the more you have to exercise that fist as a warning. If someone defies you, your fist has to be ready to come down hard on him to stop others from getting any ideas.

Personal battle with virus

When I studied at Cambridge (1973–75), I was swept up in the excitement of Vietnam resistance to the US bully, rejoicing as we watched the last helicopter airlift the last US officials from the embassy in Saigon. My friends were the handful of British communists studied there. My adviser told me about a professor friend at a sherry party asking, ‘How is Walberg doing? I hear he’s caught the bug.’ What he meant was I had joined in the Cambridge communist tradition, intellectuals enamored with the Soviet Union.

I was a bit offended, but dismissed that jibe and carried on. Eventually, of course, the Soviet Union collapsed, so by analogy, my worldview, the ‘bug’ I caught at Cambridge, should have died too. Indeed, for much of the world, faith in the final victory of socialism/communism died in 1991, just as many lost faith during earlier bouts of illness the Soviet Union suffered (collectivization, repression). But many of us remained alive and holding true to the faith. There Is No Alternative.

I think I understand all this now. It is capitalism that holds the world in thrall, a virus that infects the entire world, and can only be fought by those immune to its blandishments. The Soviet Union was building an alternative to capitalism, but that is hard work, kind of boring at times.

The virus, like corona, is well adapted to human instincts (aggression, sex, hunger, self protection). Scientists have discovered there is genetic make-up in humans that promotes selflessness, altruism, love, spirituality, but these are secondary traits, luxuries that are only available to nurture when man doesn’t have to worry about survival.

I continue to marvel that despite the constant invasions and sabotage the Soviet Union faced, confronted by a powerful capitalist world, it survived at all. That it saved the world from fascism alone should have earned it our eternal respect, but the sick patient was not interested in a cure. It was able to survive over the centuries by embracing total war as a less demanding cure for any symptoms of dysfunction.

Fighting virus = just war = socialism

That is not to promote pacifism. WWII was a just war, fighting a real enemy that gloried in genocide and slavery for no purpose but further world conquest. But that war was for socialism, and the West quickly adopted socialism for the duration of the war, since that was the way to motivate the people to make mortal sacrifices. Capitalism, benefiting only a small elite, was not enough incentive.

Our governments were forced then by necessity to made a social contract with citizens, so that citizens (not ‘consumers’) would be willing to put their lives on the line, knowing their government would guarantee work, unemployment insurance, pensions and a post-war equitable social order.

Churchill and FDR signed the Atlantic Charter in August 1941 and the Declaration by United Nations on 1 January 1942, the basis for the modern United Nations. That was what united us as one nation, and let us win WWII, rather than just churning out a lot of bombs. The war industry per se is neither good nor bad.

The (Liberal) Canadian government quickly set up Crown corporations, 28 of them by the end of the war, producing arms, tanks, whatever. But in 1945 the implicit contract with the Soviet Union, that the world was now anti-imperialist, socialist, not fascist, was torn up, and private capital reasserted its dominance in politics and economics.

Late stage symptom

Thus, the virus took hold again in 1945, a ‘second wave’. Like corona, capitalism mutates to meet any challenge. Faced with Hitler, it mutated into state socialism. Faced with a world in 1945 eager for real socialism, it mutated into the poisonous witchhunts of the 1950s. It laid America low morally, and finally infected the Soviet Union and killed it.

Douglas Valentine’s TDY (2000), a battle between the CIA, DEA, Pentagon and a hapless GI caught in the middle, depicts how ‘a generation lost faith in the ideal that all Americans are united in a common cause.’ In hindsight though, it was not Vietnam, but WWII that was the last common cause.

But fighting is what makes America America. The soldierly culture runs deep. I can’t seem to meet an American without some relative or friend in the armed forces. And the wars, from the 19th century and the slaughter of the native peoples, till WWI and today, have been mercenary, immoral wars.

WWII is the one exception. Where the US didn’t face the usual unending ‘insurgencies’, as the people welcomed the troops who delivered them from the Nazi scourge. Another irony: though the US toots itself (and Israel) as a force for peace, if you look at the ‘real, existing’ peace it provides, it’s one of instability, violence and death, the peace of the dead. We can only conclude that this is the intended result: chaos abroad requires the US war machine to pacify. This benefits the war machine, with some trickle-down to US workers and soldiers.

Real real peace would mean dismantling the machine. Sorensen’s mass of evidence points to this as the ultimate goal. Just contemplate with him the hundreds of bases in the US alone, ’employing’ tens of millions, sucking up the nation’s food, dumping countless tons of CO2 and NO2 into the air, sea, land.

Doing what? The US has NO enemies except the ones it makes. It could easily just stop bullying and dissolve the whole works, like Costa Rica. Imagine all those $X,000,000,000,000 used to, say, pay people a basic income, make university education free, provide a bicycle for everyone, free public transit. You get the picture. But instead, millions of men (and, as a nod to feminists and lgbtqa) women, gays and transsexuals spend their time thinking and looking tough, devoted to the US war machine terrorizing the world.

But, as Sorensen points out, except for WWII, nothing has changed at all since the US invaded the Philippines in 1898 (‘clear, hold and build’), Vietnam ‘strategic hamlets’, Afghanistan ‘provincial reconstruction teams’. A report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction concluded that ‘successes in stabilizing Afghan districts rarely lasted longer than the physical presence of coalition troops and civilians.’ By forcing American power onto helpless natives, the US replicates the insurgencies that have always plagued its imperial moves. And the natives today react much as the Filipinos did in 1898. Bottom line: Destroy the village to save it.

The peace movement then was vocal, mainstream, and upfront anti-imperialist (Anti-Imperialist League), led by Mark Twain and many other prominent cultural figures. To no avail. And when ‘our bastards’, like Batista in Cuba, Chavez in Venezuela, or Duterte in Philippines, tell the Yankees ‘out!’, it is like a cold chill, making the beast feel feverish, hatching ever new mutations, plans to thwart this latest challenge.

Strength through peace

There is no vaccine, we must fight to achieve that illusive ‘herd immunity’. Once enough countries wake up and attack the virus resolutely, that should keep us safe, though socialism doesn’t mean stagnation. To keep it healthy requires cultivating grassroots. When the roots die, the virus can creep back into our lives.

The post ‘Understanding The War Industry’ – Book Review appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Eurasia Review: The Syrian People’s Lament: ‘Don’t Forget Us’ – Analysis

Lt Gen PR Kumar (Retired)* — Sun, 24 May 2020 21:06:26 -0400

We live in a multi-polar world of persistent engagement, with rising nationalism, authoritarianism and bilateralism and diminishing trends of globalisation, leading to increasing intervention and multiple ‘Great Games’. Every nation is forced to carry out dynamic strategic balancing by shifting alliances to cope, maintain and retain their sovereignty, independence and strategic space.

Nowhere is this more evident than the shifting sands of the Middle East, where a humanitarian tragedy of gargantuan proportions has unfolded in Syria. With the arrival of the pandemic COVID 19, this suffering has further exacerbated, but the World sleeps on. India can and must act as the conscience keeper.

Syria is an ancient land (10,000 BC; centre of pre-pottery Neolithic culture), and a culturally rich civilization. It is considered a secular state, being home to diverse ethnic groups including Syrian, Arabs, Kurds, Turkememens, Assyrians, Armenians, Greeks and others, following Sunni, Shia, Christianity, Alawites, Druze, Isma’ilis, Salafis, Yazidis and Jewish faiths. Syria became an independent republic in 1946 following French rule after World War II.

Democratic rule ended with a takeover in March 1949 and from 1958 to 1961, a brief union with Egypt replaced Syria’s parliamentary system with a centralized presidential government. The secular Ba’ath Syrian Regional Branch government came to power through a successful takeover in 1963. In March 1971, Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite, declared himself President, a position that he held until his death in 2000. His son Bashar al-Assad took over as President and he runs a dictatorial regime to date.

Conflict Genesis

The Syrian Civil War which officially started on March 15, 2011 is an ongoing multi-sided armed conflict fought by several factions: the Syrian government and its allies, against a loose alliance of Sunni Arab rebel groups (including the Free Syrian Army), the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Salafi jihadist groups (including al-Nusra Front) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Outside intervention adds to the complexity.

The unrest in Syria, forms part of a wider wave of 2011 Arab Spring protests, and grew out of discontent with the Assad government and escalated to an armed conflict after protests calling for his removal were violently suppressed. Syria was ranked last on the Global Peace Index from 2016 to 2018, making it the most violent country in the world due to the civil war.

The Current Security and Humanitarian Crisis**

Based on numerous official (including the last UNSC May 2020 Monthly Forecast) and journalistic reports; since the war began in 2011 at least 586100 people have been killed, nearly 13 million people have been displaced (the largest number displaced by any conflict in the world) including 6.7 million Syrian refugees.

An estimated 12 million Syrians need humanitarian assistance. In Northern Syria where severe fighting continues, during the two months of Dec 19-Jan 2020 alone, over one million people have been displaced, and living in squalid refugee camps.

Turkey has officially announced a direct confrontation with Syria with its attendant power games. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met in Moscow on March 5, 2020, agreeing to a cessation of all military actions effective March 6, 2020. The cease fire is holding very precariously with frequent breakdowns, and most security experts predict a grim future.

On May 8, 2020, the UNHRC Chief stated “As civilian casualties mount across Syria and human rights violations continue unabated, some parties to the conflict, including ISIL terrorist fighters, may be using the COVID-19 pandemic as “an opportunity to regroup and inflict violence on the population”.

Concurrently, the risk of the COVID-19 pandemic having a devastating impact on war-torn Syria is intensifying, due to a combination of the violence and living conditions that make people particularly vulnerable to the deadly virus.

Overview of the Middle East Security Situation and Syrian Conundrum

Just a glance at the political map of the Middle East provides a flavor of the complex strategic and geo-political environment. It obviously has a direct bearing on events in Syria.

A unique phenomenon of Middle East is that paradoxically it is one of the most integrated intertwined regions and also the most polarized. The politico-socio-economic (oil and gas reserves) and security environment dictates that except for purely localized events all events become regionalized (and internationalized by big powers intervention), due to conflicting interests and alliances.

To this, add weak state structures, powerful nonstate actors (including terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, Islamic State, Al Qaeda, multiple ethnic alliances), multiple transitions and religion (Sunni vs Shia, Sunni vs Sunni (different sects and practices); making it a highly combustible mixture. These elements do not get resolved easily but form layers of acrimony and discontent, with some issues temporarily taking precedence.

Yemen is a typical example; intrinsically a conflict between a weak central Government and Houthis (an obscure rebel group) has become a focal point for the Iranian-Saudi rivalry, a cold war arena with other regional players jumping in whenever it suits them.

Syria is similar, but the situation is even more convoluted. The major parties supporting the Syrian Government are Iran, Russia and the Lebanese Hezbollah, while Syrian rebel groups receive political, logistic and military support from the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Britain, France, Israel (which routinely targets Iranian and Hezbollah troops and infrastructure in Syria, fanning the existing turbulence) and Netherlands.

The complexity of the conflict situation in Syria can be gauged by the fact that at one stage, the USA was supporting two groups bitterly opposed to one another; Syrian opposition and Sunni groups and the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF – comprising mainly of elements of Kurdish People’s Protection Group (YPG) from both Turkey and Northern Syria; which Turkey has proclaimed as a terrorist organization putting USA and Turkey at cross purposes).

Ironically, USA backed rebel groups fighting both the Assad regime and ISIS, but claims not to be pursuing a regime change (despite supporting forces that wanted exactly that), not to be seeking a regional rebalance (despite the clear impact Assad’s downfall would have on Iran’s influence), not to be boosting Turkey’s foes (despite supporting a Kurdish movement affiliated with Turkey’s mortal enemy), and not to be seeking to weaken Russia (despite Moscow’s affinity for Assad).

How do you support a group but not their objectives? It would be termed a comic situation, if it was not so tragic for the innocent people of Syria caught in the crossfire of the conflict and now the added dimension of COVID 19.

The Indian Connection

Relations between India and Syria goes back to ancient civilizational ties. Events leading to partition, necessity to enjoy good relations with Muslim specially Arab countries, Syria’s consistent stand to support our views on Kashmir (only West Asian nation to consistently support), stability in the region which impacts our developmental and economic prospects and concerns of spread of terrorism and Islamic jihad, compelled India to support Syria’s legitimate right to the Golan Heights and opposition to foreign intervention as an important step to resolve the conflict (this stance given Assad’s rule has drawn much flak and ire from international community).

With limited trade to the tune of $ 200 mn totally skewed in favor of India (90%), and geographical realities, there is very little influence India has on the ground.

India’s oil and energy interests in Kurdish Autonomous Region and Syria need to be factored in, and it is in India’s interest to have a stable region. Specifically regarding the conflict, India has stayed neutral except to condemn violation of human rights.

With increasing clout and status in the international arena, India can play a balancing/conflict resolution role specially given its soft power and equations with all the international and regional players involved. India must take it upon itself to bring focus and thus definitive diplomatic and humanitarian surge action to alleviate the human tragedy in Syria (this will enhance India’s status and geo-strategic role). With the enhanced role of India in WHO, it will be very interesting to watch how events unfold and India’s response.

Prognosis

The situation in Northern Syria specially along the Turkish border remains precarious with more than a million civilians pincered. The Russia-Turkey agreement is being challenged on a daily basis both by Syrian Government forces and Turkish troops.

The resolution of the conflict leading to long-term stability and peace is totally contingent on the ‘Outside Players enumerated (specially global powers USA, Russia and China) stopping their interference. A negotiated settlement between the government of Syrian President Bashar al Assad and Syrian opposition forces in accordance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 (which calls for the drafting of a new constitution and U.N.-supervised elections) appears impractical for now.

As long as it’s a playground for power-play regionally and internationally, the conflict will simmer on in varying tempos, with tragic and humanitarian consequences for the people. Unfortunately, it is a very low-cost option for the players because they don’t invest with their own troops but with negligible eco, military and political support to the warring factions.

That is the tragedy of a dynamic multi-polar, multi-domain ‘real politik’ world we live in. The harsh and bitter truth is that with COVID 19 further putting Syria in the backburner, and diminishing political and economic power of international institutions like UN (including sparring Security Council members), WHO, UNHCR, there is little hope of alleviation for the people of Syria in the near future.

**Numerous papers, articles and material available online to include ‘The Unwanted Wars; Why the Middle East Is More Combustible Than Ever’ by Robert Malley, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2019; along with UNSC and other UN associated institutions like UNHRC.

*About the Author: Lt Gen PR Kumar retired from the post of Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of the Indian Army in end 2015, responsible for all operational issues. He keeps current on international and national strategic security issues, writes for numerous Think Tanks and delivers talks in educational institutions. He can be contacted at perumo9@gmail.com

The post The Syrian People’s Lament: ‘Don’t Forget Us’ – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Eurasia Review: What Next If US Exits From Open Skies Treaty? – OpEd

Kester Kenn Klomegah — Sun, 24 May 2020 20:50:10 -0400

President Donald Trump sudden decision to withdraw from the 1992 Open Skies Treaty has posed unprecedented challenges, generated extensive debates among Russian politicians and experts, and equally worried are leaders in Europe and Asia.

Trump administration notified international partners on May 21 that it was pulling out of a treaty that permits 30-plus nations to conduct unarmed, observation flights over each other’s territory – overflights set up decades ago to promote trust and avert conflict.

The administration explained that it wanted to fall out of the Open Skies Treaty because Russia has been violating the pact, and imagery collected during the flights could be obtained quickly at less cost from United States or commercial satellites. Exiting the treaty, however, is expected to strain relations with Moscow and upset European allies and some members of Congress.

President Dwight Eisenhower first proposed that the United States and the former Soviet Union allow aerial reconnaissance flights over each other’s territory in July 1955. At first, Moscow rejected the idea, but President George H.W. Bush revived it in May 1989, and the treaty entered into force in January 2002. Currently, 34 nations have signed it; Kyrgyzstan has signed but not ratified it yet.

The Open Skies Treaty is the third important military pact that Trump has withdrawn from since coming to office in January 2017. He also dropped the 2015 JCPOA agreement to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear weapons program and the 1988 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. In both cases, Trump accused the other side of violating treaty requirements.

Russian Foreign Ministry issued an official statement May 22, describing the exit decision a deplorable development for European security. That said, Moscow was not surprised by Washington’s decision, which characterizes its approach to discarding the entire package of arms control agreements and trust-building measures in the military sphere.

It said that “the US administration’s strategy is to cover up its own destructive actions by accusing Russia,” and that Russia has been collecting information on critical US and European infrastructure with a view to targeting its precision weapons.

The statement suggests that Washington make public the full list of Russian facilities that it has filmed in the past few years. Using its rights under the treaty, Russia has acted strictly in line with its provisions, and American colleagues have previously made no claims against Russia.

Russia’s policy on the treaty is based on its national security interests and in close cooperation with its allies and partners. The policy to discard the Open Skies Treaty calls into question Washington’s negotiability and consistency. Apparently, lacking any real argument in justifying its actions, the treaty’s opponents have resorted to this far-fetched allegation.

Besides the official statement, Moscow further indicated it would continue observing the treaty even if the US pulls out. “As long as the treaty is in force, we intend to fully follow all the rights and obligations that apply to us from this treaty,” Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told the RIA Novosti News Agency.

Fellow Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov denounced the “absolutely unacceptable” conditions set by the Washington, accusing the US of sowing “discord and uncertainty.”

In addition, Grushko warned that the US pullout would damage European security and harm the interests of US allies. China, which is not a party to the treaty, expressed “deep regret” over the US move, calling it a display of the United States’ entrenched Cold War mentality.

The Europeans said they would work to resolve “outstanding questions” with Moscow, including “unjustified restrictions” imposed on flights over Kaliningrad — a Russian exclave bordered by Poland and Lithuania. China, which is not a party to the treaty, expressed “deep regret” over the US move, calling it a “display of the United States’ entrenched Cold War mentality.”

The United States will gain nothing by withdrawing from the Treaty on Open Skies, Chairman of the Russian Federation Council (the upper house of parliament) Foreign Affairs Committee Konstantin Kosachev wrote on Facebook.

According to him, the Trump administration’s move is harmful to the US interests so it is hard to understand its logic. “One can only suspect that the US authorities seek to destroy the current world order. The White House has sent another signal to US allies. Will they show unconditional support, like they always do?” Kosachev said.

In his view, the US president is determined to dismantle the entire mechanism of ensuring global security. “There is no other way to explain this not only destructive but in many ways clumsy step that the White House has taken,” the Russian senator stressed.

Experts have shown much interest. There is no reason for Russia to remain a party to the Open Skies Treaty after the US withdrawal since this gives Washington an advantage in obtaining data on Russia’s Armed Forces, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics National Research University, Dmitry Suslov told TASS.

“It is not advisable for Russia to keep its own participation in the agreement after the United States pulls out of this agreement, because European countries of NATO within the framework of this agreement will still be able to fly over Russian soil,” Suslov said.

“If Russia remains a party to the agreement, the zero-sum game will go on, because the United States will continue receiving information on the state and deployment of the Russian Armed Forces from its European allies in NATO remaining in the agreement, while Russian planes will not be able to fly over the United States. Certainly, Russia will not receive relevant information about the US army from the Europeans,” Suslov added.

In the meanwhile, Moscow is awaiting an official notice from Washington on its decision to pull out of the Treaty on Open Skies. According to the terms of the agreement, the official withdrawal from the treaty will happen six months after the US officially notifies other participants. Experts interviewed by the Izvestia newspaper agree that Washington’s looming exit from the treaty is another step towards the collapse of the international arms control system. The New START Treaty, which expires in 2021, could be next.

“The agreement was in line with the course towards strengthening trust and security measures. And trust is now needed more than ever, since its lack thereof is close to complete. Washington may be content with it, but in general I don’t see any benefit from the collapse of the system of international agreements for the United States,” Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Office and other International Organizations in Geneva, Alexander Alimov told Russian newspaper Izvestia.

German Federal Minister of Defense Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer stated that Germany would continue to fulfill its obligations within the Treaty Open Skies Treaty, despite the US’s intention to abandon it. Her statement was published in the ministry’s twitter account.

“I deeply regret the US’s announcement on abandonment of the Treaty. All sides must take efforts to preserve this important agreement and prevent the US’s withdrawal. We will continue to adhere to the Treaty,” the Minister said.

According to Agence France-Presse (AFP), NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the US decision to quit the agreement would not come into effect for six months, leaving Moscow time to change course.

“All NATO allies are in full compliance with all provisions of the treaty,” Stoltenberg said, adding that Russia has, for many years, imposed flight restrictions inconsistent with the treaty, including flight limitations, over Kaliningrad and restricting flights in Russia near its border with Georgia.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said he regretted the US decision, calling the Open Skies treaty “a key element of our arms-control architecture” which serves as “a vital confidence and security-building measure” and called on Washington to reconsider and for Moscow to “return immediately to the full implementation of the Treaty.”

Earlier, the local media also reported that a group of 10 European nations said in a joint statement they regretted Trump’s threat, — his latest in a string of withdrawals from international agreements.

The withdrawal “will have a negative impact on the international arms control and disarmament process,” China Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian said.

The Open Skies Treaty was signed in March 1992 in Helsinki by 23 member-nations of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). It was drafted with Moscow’s active participation. The treaty is a major tool of strengthening trust and security.

The Open Skies’ main goals are to build transparency, render assistance in monitoring compliance with existing or future arms control agreements, broaden possibilities for preventing crises and managing crisis situations. The accord establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. Now, the treaty has more than 30 signatory states. Russia ratified the Open Skies Treaty on May 26, 2001.

The post What Next If US Exits From Open Skies Treaty? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Eurasia Review: When Do Plants Help Or Hinder Each Other?

Eurasia Review — Sun, 24 May 2020 20:43:14 -0400

When plants grow close together, each individual plant has less chance of doing well – at least, that was the accepted wisdom in environmental research.

Now Dr. Ruichang Zhang and Professor Katja Tielbörger from the Institute of Evolution and Ecology at the University of Tübingen are challenging that principle. Their investigation of the combined effects of environmental stress and competition on plants has led them to develop a new theoretical model suggesting that plants can ‘help’ each other out.

The researchers were able to confirm their model predictions in detail in an experiment with real plants. Their study has been published in the latest Nature Communications.

Competition leads to fewer resources being available for each individual organism.

“If the crowding becomes too much, this can even lead to the death of individual plants,” says Katja Tielbörger.

Yet there are many empirical studies that show that plants can also facilitate each other. Tielbörger says this is often the case when plants grow under stressful conditions – for instance, when the soil is saline or the temperatures are high.

“When it’s very hot, for example, large plants can provide shade, which in turn can create better conditions for smaller plants that grow under the canopy of the larger ones,” she adds.

It seems logical that such positive interactions are most important when environmental stress is high. It has therefore long been postulated that facilitation in bad times may turn into competition when conditions are good.

Experiments with Arabidopsis

The two Tübingen researchers have now combined the density and stress factors in a novel mathematical model.

“This showed that under intense stress, it can be advantageous to have many neighbors and that competition only occurs at very high densities,” Tielbörger sums up.

From the point of view of the individual plant, the relationship between density and thriving is like a hump-shaped curve. The Tübingen researchers simulated the model conditions in an experiment using Arabidopsis thaliana or thale cress – the plant commonly used as a model in molecular biology.

“The experiment confirmed all the predictions arising from our model,” says Tielbörger.

For example, the plants suffered considerably less from salt stress when they had many neighbors. And they suffered from competition by neighbors only when they were not under stress.

Because of the complexity of ecological systems, models are a popular method for better understanding nature. Tielbörger says it is remarkable to find such a close match between theory and reality in ecological research:

“This shows how robust and universally valid our actually quite simple model is.”

The model may help to better predict the response of plants to stress – such as increased heat and drought – which are to be expected as the climate changes.

The post When Do Plants Help Or Hinder Each Other? appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Eurasia Review: Hope For Africa During COVID-19 Pandemic – Analysis

Eurasia Review — Sun, 24 May 2020 20:35:44 -0400

The Covid-19 pandemic, while treacherous for economies, inspires self-reliance and innovation in Africa, particularly around food production.

By Eric Ekobor-Ackah Mochiah*

The mightiest of nations have fallen victim to Covid-19, and many predict problems for less developed nations. Yet Africa may surprise the world in managing this pandemic when the international community cannot step up to help.

Granted, there are challenges and unknowns. Arguing for rapid development of a vaccine, philanthropist Melinda Gates describes the challenges in the developing world, including lack of access to water to practice handwashing, the inability to practice social distancing in dense townships and slums, and the difficulties of imposed lockdowns as people need to work and pick up food on a daily basis. Africa reports more than 100,000 cases in all, with more than 3,000 deaths. Of 54 countries, 12 report more than 2,000 cases – including South Africa, Egypt and Algeria. Gates suggests that low case numbers are linked to lower rates of testing, and researchers question if the disease is less active in places with warmer temperatures. In Africa, some of the nations worst hit have posted relatively lower temperatures. Covid-19’s fatality rate is higher among the elderly, and the median age in Africa is just under 20.

Comparisons: African nations manage the pandemic; testing varies widely within and among nations (Source: WorldoMeters)

Still, Africa may be resilient – and the case of Ghana debunks suggestions that Africa cannot take care of herself during these trying times. Ghana has recorded more than 6,400 cases with about 30 deaths and 200,000 tests conducted so far. Rural clinics use drones, carrying samples to urban testing centers, reducing delivery time to about 30 minutes rather than hours required by car. The Zipline fleet in Ghana has the capacity to transport 15,000 tests from 300 flights in a day, reports Time, and drone technology speeds identification of the infected and contact tracing while also helping deliver medical supplies.

Ghana also closed its international borders as of mid-March. Kotoka International Airport placed returning citizens and residents under a strict two-week quarantine for observation and testing. The nation’s two major cities imposed a partial lockdown for three weeks to ensure extensive contact tracing and testing. The World Health Organization lauded Ghana for these moves.

Other African nations took similar steps, imposing complete or partial lockdowns as well as contact tracing. Reports suggest the lockdowns increased social interactions among family members and improved daily life. Some African countries followed developed countries in closing their borders indefinitely. Many increase testing, enforce social distancing and require face masks.

Countries also stepped up cooperation – with Rwanda, for example, declaring it could provide medical supplies and ventilators, some supplied by China, for others in need of such critical equipment. South Africa, Rwanda, Senegal and Ghana also report adequate supplies of test kits, again many supplied by China and the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Covid-19 costs: Government debt as a percentage of nominal GDP is expected to rise (Source: Trading Economics 2018-2019)

Covid-19 could be more treacherous for Africa’s economy, disrupting trade and financial inflows, as the International Monetary Fund predicts global growth to fall by at least 3 percent this year. For sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank projects economic growth between -2.1 and -5.1 percent in 2020, depending on success of pandemic mitigation measures. Economies heavily reliant on exports of commodities with drastic price declines, like oil – including Nigeria and Angola – could suffer the most. Likewise, countries that rely on tourism – including Egypt, Morocco and South Africa – can anticipate a decline in revenue.

Covid-19 could add to public debt vulnerabilities. The ratio of general gross debt-to-GDP in sub-Saharan Africa has worsened since 2012 from 37 percent to 59 percent, and there could be more deterioration as domestic production levels and economic activities decline. This coupled with heightened fiscal deficit through huge spending to contain the disease and offset losses may make debt payments difficult.

African governments offer stimulus packages, with South Africa, Ghana and others providing an array of soft loans, tax deferrals, tax assistance and relief for businesses to retain low-income employees. Ghana offered support for private and commercial customers to pay utility bills. Kenya, Ghana and others supply food items for vulnerable populations. In Ghana for example, several companies and institutions have joined in the manufacturing of hand sanitizers, local medicines that boost the immune system and personal protective equipment, or PPE. Masks made in Ghana rely on the colorful local textiles, increasing demand and sustaining jobs in the textile industry.

Room to grow: Intra-regional trade increases knowledge transfer and value creation (Source: Brookings and UN Conference on Trade and Development)

Africa, pushed to the wall, takes action – even as most countries look inward, helping their own citizens before extending assistance to the rest of the world. Many countries have already announced plans to restrict exports of medical products as well as staple foods. For instance, Russia and Kazakhstan imposed quotas on exports of wheat, sugar, sunflower seeds and some food vegetables such as potatoes. Similarly, Vietnam, India and Cambodia reduced or banned rice exports to ensure local food security. Rice and wheat were the third leading imports for Ghana and Nigeria, respectively, in 2018, and sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s largest region for rice imports, according to the World Bank

The African Development Bank projects the continent’s annual food import bill of $35 billion to rise to $110 billion by 2025, and this would weaken African economies, specifically agricultural and export jobs. Covid-19 could worsen matters, but Africa can control the trajectory. The crisis could offset inelastic tastes for foreign foods and curb preference for imported grains like wheat and rice, with Africa instead developing and marketing local crops. Most locally produced foods – including yams, plantains, cassava, tomatoes, oranges, watermelons, among others – are left to rot with little preservation or value-added processing. If Africans reverse course in this area, there could be both demand-induced supply for most import-substituted foods and supply-induced demand for value-added processing – increasing crop production levels to sustainable levels, reducing dependence on imports while increasing food security. A new independent mindset and the will to increase productive capacities from all factors of production, especially labor, is required.

Crops like maize and rice, which form a substantial proportion of food eaten and grown by Africans, could aid in food security and sustainability as farmers over the years have experimented with seeds that are high yielding and resistant to drought, pest and diseases.

Countries must now focus on buffer stock institutions and smaller, yet valuable food manufacturing companies – many in ruins all over the continent. The reasons are many: low demand from the inelastic taste for foreign products, stiffer competition from foreign brands and, most importantly lack of national agendas. Too often, political parties when they come to power neglect projects undertaken by their opponents to help preserve and store excess food produced in Africa. Such local production would give rise to manufacturing jobs and sustained incomes, encouraging demand for local products.

Africa, with self-reflection and appreciation, could rise above aid and become self-reliant after Covid-19. Only a few short months ago, the world thought of the virus that emerged in China as a distant challenge. Since then, Covid-19 has spread to almost every corner of the world. Each country has the opportunity to take charge of its destiny, handling the problem as they see fit.

If the international community is inclined to help change the fortunes of Africans in a timely manner, that must be done through debt relief. Still, with great food insecurity predicted by the world, Africans and others must rise and take matters into their own hands.

*Eric Ekobor-Ackah Mochiah is a 2019-20 Fox International Fellow at Yale University and a doctoral candidate at the Economics Department of University of Ghana. His PhD project focuses on empirical evidence of Mobile money technology in the light of its impact of on savings, gender dimension of volume of transaction, and willingness to pay for deposit insurance against rising security and safety issues.

The post Hope For Africa During COVID-19 Pandemic – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Eurasia Review: China Abandons Strategy Of Persuasion And Compromise – OpEd

IDN — Sun, 24 May 2020 20:25:27 -0400

By Vijay Gokhale*

If U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt believed that if you “speak softly and carry a big stick: you will go far”, half a century later and many thousands of miles away, another man practised it. His name was Zhou Enlai.

If Mao Zedong represented the crude face of Chinese communism, then Zhou was the epitome of its refinement. Where Mao preferred to exercise his power from “out of the barrel of a gun”, Zhou preferred to seduce his opponents through word and gesture in the pursuit of national self-interest, with the elegance of an opera star. The stick was used rarely, and only when all other means of persuasion failed.

When General Douglas MacArthur’s armies crossed into North Korea, Zhou summoned the Indian Ambassador in Beijing to deliver a message to the Americans: “If the U.S. troops cross the 38th Parallel… we will intervene.”

The manner of his delivery was as subtle as its message was blunt. Zhou could have thrown down the gauntlet in public but chose to give diplomacy a chance.

When, however, the U.S., regardless of Chinese concerns, crossed the 38th Parallel, the Chinese attacked and brought the world’s greatest power to a standstill.

A few years later, in 1954, the Chinese made their entry onto the world stage in Geneva. The Vietnamese were winning against the French in the First Indochina War, and the Americans were preparing to intervene fearing that another “domino” would fall to communism. China’s self-interest lay in ending this war while denying the U.S. a foothold in its backyard. Zhou’s strategy was to undermine western unity. His watchwords were persuasion and compromise.

Describing his presence in Geneva as “a performance on the stage”, he deployed all his charm, vitality and intelligence. He even gave “face” to the French who had just lost to the Vietnamese in the battle of Dien Bien Phu, by travelling the “extra mile” to meet Prime Minister Pierre Mendès-France to secure the peace. At the start of the Conference, U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles had pronounced that the “Chinese communist regime will not come to Geneva to be honoured by us, but rather to account before the bar of world opinion”. Playing the weaker hand, Zhou turned the tables on the U.S.

A year later, at the Afro-Asian Conference in Bandung, Zhou used the same tactics to pursue another objective; the leaders of the Afro-Asian countries. He deliberately kept a low profile, allowing Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Indonesian President Sukarno to take the lead. His tactic, he reported to Mao, was “not to be involved in provocative or disruptive debate”. His guidance to his team was to “strive to expand the united front of the world peace force… and create conditions for establishing diplomatic work or diplomatic relations between China and a number of Afro-Asian countries”.

All roads led to Beijing

Zhou’s style of diplomacy came to define Chinese foreign policy over the next half-century. The strategy was consistent: avoid isolation, build solidarity with non-aligned countries, divide the West. The tactics were called ‘united front’ — isolate the main threat by building unity with all other forces. It was a game that Zhou would play with consummate skill.

Under Zhou, diplomats of calibre kept the ship of state steady in a churning sea full of storms, some self-made like the Cultural Revolution. When the tide rose, these diplomatic fishermen gathered the fish — expanding China’s global presence and gaining international acceptability. When it ebbed, they saw to it that the ship remained firmly moored. They navigated the Cold War, playing the Soviets against the Americans.

To relieve pressure, Zhou opened border talks with the Soviets and channels to the U.S. Public animosity did not deter him from turning on the full extent of his charm on either Alexei Kosygin or Henry Kissinger. In February 1972, he persuaded U.S. President Richard Nixon to abandon Taiwan when the communists had not exercised actual sovereignty over that island even for a single day since 1949. It was a staggering act of diplomacy.

In the 1980s, when Deng Xiaoping took up the reins, Zhou’s ‘sailors’ continued to navigate the Chinese ship through the early days of opening up to the outside world. Deng supplemented Zhou’s strategy with a “24-Character Strategy” of his own: “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.”

It became the ‘mantra’ of Chinese diplomacy. Chinese diplomats measured their words and kept their dignity. They projected power but rarely blustered. They were masters of their brief because Zhou had taught them that the real advantage in negotiations was to know more than the other side. They flattered acquaintances, calling them “old friends”. They built relationships by making it a point to engage the less friendly interlocutors with greater courtesies than friends.

Behind closed doors, they were tireless in whittling down opposition through negotiation, and skilful in putting the onus of responsibility for failure on the other party. And occasionally, ever so subtly, they would hold out a veiled threat with a look of concern rather like an uncle anxious to save you from embarrassment. But they rarely offended.

The 1980s and 1990s were the high noon for Chinese diplomacy. All roads led to Beijing. U.S. President George Bush and Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev made their way to the Forbidden City. They normalised relations, settled borders and won hearts and minds through general financial help. So seductive was Chinese diplomacy that the Americans even broke their own sanctions imposed after the 1989 ‘Tian An Men Incident’, within a matter of four weeks.

A decade later, the U.S. and the European Union bought into Chinese assurances that it would soon transition to a market economy, and helped steer it into the World Trade Organization.

Breaking away from moorings

Deng died in 1997. China prospered just as Deng had imagined. It began to occupy centre stage in world diplomacy, but the ship began to come apart from its moorings. A new generation of diplomats, with knowledge of the English language and a careerist mindset, has started to whittle away at the anchors laid down by Zhou and Deng. Arrogance has replaced humility. Persuasion is quickly abandoned in favour of the stick when countries take actions contrary to Chinese wishes.

The Chinese pursue unilateralism instead of compromise in the South China Sea. In place of ‘united front’ tactics, they are bent on creating irritations simultaneously with multiple neighbouring countries. To avenge the ‘Century of Humiliation’ that China endured in the hands of western imperial powers from roughly 1839-1840 to 1949, they adopt a one-size-fits-all approach, uncaring that much of the world has done nothing to China and, indeed, shares a similar historical experience.

Statements of fact or reasoned opinion are seen by them as insult or humiliation. Foreign governments are educated about their responsibilities in managing the media and the narrative, even as the Chinese manipulate the same media to serve their purposes. They expect to receive gratitude for everything they do, including handling COVID-19, as if it was only done with the foreigner in mind. The veneer of humility has thinned. The reserves of goodwill are fast depleting. The ship seems to be adrift at sea.

China, post-COVID-19, will be operating in a very different external environment. It may wish to recall what Kissinger told the White House staff in July 1971 after his trip to the country: “The Chinese style is impressive. The Russians will fight you for every nickel and dime, and elbow you at every level, and lose a million dollars of goodwill in the process. The Chinese have a sense of the longer trends and focus on that, not on ploymanship.” The Chinese appear to have lost that style. If they cannot regain it, the ship of diplomacy could be dragged further afar from the shore on the receding tide.

*This article by a former Foreign Secretary of India and a former Ambassador to China first appeared on The Hindu on 20 March 2020. It is republished because of an insider’s view of the changing nature of China’s diplomacy characterised by unilateralism and a one-size-fits-all approach. “China, post-COVID-19, will be operating in a very different external environment.”

The post China Abandons Strategy Of Persuasion And Compromise – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Sun, 24 May 2020 20:24:45 -0400

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Sun, 24 May 2020 20:20:59 -0400

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Millions of U.S. military veterans who have risked their lives while serving their country and often bear the scars of battle confront a frustrating web of red tape as they begin their journey back into civilian life and try to use the job skills they've perfected in war zones.

For ...

www.washingtontimes.com stories: Security

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Eurasia Review: Afghanistan: Ghani Vows To Expedite Release Of Taliban Prisoners

RFE RL — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:41:27 -0400

(RFE/RL) — Afghan President Ashraf Ghani launched a process on May 24 to release up to 2,000 Taliban prisoners after welcoming an offer by the militants of a three-day cease-fire to mark Eid al-Fitr, the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

“As a responsible government we take one more step forward. I announce that I will expedite the Taliban prisoner releases,” Ghani said in an address to the nation marking Eid al-Fitr.

Ghani also urged the Taliban to press ahead with the release of Afghan security personnel they hold.

A presidential spokesman, Sediq Sediqqi, later tweeted that “President Ghani today initiated a process to release up to 2,000 Taliban prisoners as a good will gesture in response to the Taliban’s announcement of a ceasefire during Eid.”

Sediqqi added that Afghanistan’s government “is extending the offer of peace and is taking further steps to ensure success of the peace process.”

In February, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement aimed at ending the longest military action in U.S. history. The deal lays out a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in return for security commitments from the Taliban.

It also stipulates that Kabul must free 5,000 Taliban prisoners, while the militants are to release 1,000 captives — a move expected to lead to intra-Afghan negotiations.

The Taliban on May 23 announced the cease-fire would start the following day. Shortly afterward, Ghani ordered security forces to abide by the cease-fire as well.

In a post on Twitter, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the movement’s leadership has ordered all fighters to “conduct no offensive operation against the enemy anywhere.” In addition, they have been told to ensure “the security of fellow citizens.”

Zalmay Khalizad, the U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan, described the cease-fire as “a momentous opportunity” to accelerate a stalled U.S.-Taliban peace process.

“Other positive steps should immediately follow: the release of remaining prisoners as specified in the U.S.-Taliban agreement by both sides, no returning to high levels of violence, and an agreement on a new date for the start of intra-Afghan negotiations,” Khalizad wrote on Twitter.

A deadline for the Taliban to hold talks with the Afghan government passed in March amid a spike in violence and disagreements between the two sides over prisoner swaps.

The prospect of direct talks between Kabul and the Taliban gained a boost on May 17 when Ghani and his political rival, Abdullah Abdullah, reached a power-sharing agreement nearly eight months after disputed elections that led to a parallel government and hampered efforts to broker a peace deal.

The United States has about 12,000 troops in Afghanistan. Washington pays about $4 billion a year to maintain the Afghan military.

Despite both sides vowing to observe the three-day cease-fire, a reported mortar attack has killed four civilians in the eastern Laghman Province.

A further seven were also wounded in the incident that took place in the Ali Shang district of the province, the provincial governor’s spokesman, Asadullah Dawlatzai, said.

An investigation has been launched to find out who carried out the shelling, Dawlatzai said.

No group has claimed the attack, but the Taliban has a strong presence in many parts of the district, and staged a number of deadly attacks on the Afghan security forces there in recent weeks.

Taliban militants control about half of Afghanistan’s territory and have continued to carry out attacks since the deal was signed.

Afghan intelligence service spokesman Javid Faisal said on May 23 that at least 146 civilians were killed and 430 wounded in Taliban attacks during Ramadan.

The post Afghanistan: Ghani Vows To Expedite Release Of Taliban Prisoners appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Eurasia Review: It Is Time For Space Governance Talks – Analysis

Observer Research Foundation — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:38:58 -0400

By Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan

Recent developments in outer space activities point to the urgent need to get global space governance talks back on track. Japan’s launch of a new defense space unit within the Air Self-Defense Force, Russia’s ASAT test last month, and the announcement by France of its new defense space strategy are indicators of rapidly change space security dynamics. The absence of successful multilateral discussions could accentuate security concerns and force states to rely on deterrence in space as a state policy, with negative consequences for all. While this is yet to happen, there are signs of states beginning to act as if they are not left with any choice but to develop deterrence strategies for space. It is also to be noted that the window of opportunity for states to engage in talks is already quite small and any delay holds out the possibility that outer space could emerge as an active domain for conflict.

This week, Japan launched a new defense space unit, the Space Operations Squadron, to track space debris and suspicious satellites in an effort to prevent satellite collisions. The squadron will be part of the Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF), and will be based in the ASDF’s Fuchu base in Tokyo. It is initially planned to be a small unit with 20 personnel, to be gradually increased to around 100. Despite the small size, experts suggest that the establishment of the new unit is a recognition of Japan’s greater reliance on space As noted in the December 2018 National Defense Program Guidelines, the newly-formed division is meant “To ensure superiority in use of space at all stages from peacetime to armed contingencies.” But given the contested and competitive nature of space including deployment and use of counter-space capabilities, the guidelines also seek to “to strengthen capabilities including mission assurance capability and capability to disrupt opponent’s command, control, communications and information.” Reports suggest that the new unit will also be engaged in Japan’s satellite-based navigation and communication for the troops in the field. Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono said that the new squadron will collaborate with the United States, especially the U.S. Space Command that was set up last year. On the domestic front, the squadron will cooperate with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) with the goal of establishing a space monitoring system by 2023. Japan plans to launch its own space surveillance satellite by 2026. Meanwhile, in August 2019, Japan announced plans to develop a satellite interceptor by the mid-2020s in order to have the option to counter attack satellites if Japanese assets in space are targeted. There will be a formal decision on it by the end of March 2021. This development rises again from Japan’s concerns about how certain countries could use counter-space capabilities to disrupt, disable or destroy satellite networks.

Japan’s move comes against the backdrop of increasing space security competition among the major space powers. There are also growing concerns in Japan about security threats from China and Russia, which have been developing counter-space capabilities to interfere, deny, disable or even destroy satellites. China’s development of a robotic arm and ASAT missile capabilities has been referred to in this context in Japanese writings. Similarly, Russia’s multiple anti-satellite tests remain a concern. Even though Japan has maintained a peaceful space program, there are compelling security factors that are beginning to impact Tokyo’s future space orientation. This is also in line with the National Defense Program Guidelines of December 2018, which seek to augment Japan’s military capabilities as far as outer space, cyberspace, and the electromagnetic spectrum are concerned. The guidelines for FY19 and beyond noted that “rapid expansion in the use of new domains, which are space, cyberspace and electromagnetic spectrum is poised to fundamentally change the existing paradigm of national security.”

Similarly, France undertook some significant changes to its space policy, driven by what it sees as developments “threatening our freedom of access and action in space.” Accordingly, France in July 2019 introduced certain institutional changes, with national space governance being reviewed and placed within a Space Command, which remains under the Air Force. India, too, has been making gradual changes to its approach toward space. Even as it continues reiterating that it is for peaceful use of space, there are significant changes on the ground including its anti-satellite (ASAT) test in March 2019. India’s main concern in the space domain, as in many other areas, comes from China. China’s ASAT test in January 2007 led to new domestic debates on how India must protect its own assets. The debate included whether India should have a demonstrated capability or not. Certainly, India wanted to avoid what happened in the nuclear domain, where non-testing left it outside the emerging nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Meanwhile, Russia conducted an ASAT test just last month, which received prompt attention from the strategic and national security communities in major capitals. While the test of the Russian Nudol interceptor did not create any cloud of orbital debris, it did raise concerns since it can destroy satellites in low earth orbit. Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, USSPACECOM commander and U.S. Space Force Chief of Space Operations said on Twitter: “Russia’s DA-ASAT test, capable of destroying #sats in Low Earth Orbit, is an example of growing threats to U.S. & Allied #Space systems. U.S. is ready, committed to #deter aggression & #defend the Nation & our Allies from hostile acts in space.”

The renewed Russian interest in developing and testing ASAT and co-orbital ASATs will continue to create more tensions and frictions among the major space players. The range of Russia’s counter-space capabilities is impressive and alarming. As far as its low Earth orbit (LEO) direct ascent capabilities are concerned, they have already crossed the R&D phase and moved to the testing phase whereas direct ascent in MEO/GEO (medium Earth orbit/geostationary Earth orbit) are believed to be in the R&D stage. Similarly, LEO co-orbital capabilities have crossed R&D and is in the testing stages. They have some significant capability on the electronic warfare means and space situational awareness.

There is clearly a spurt in activities as far as space and national security dynamics are concerned. The return to ASAT testing to the establishment of specialized military space units such as China’s PLA Strategic Support Force and the U.S. Space Force are a demonstration of the deteriorating space security environment. Development of counter-space capabilities is not new but states are showing greater willingness to develop and test such capabilities. In the absence of effective multilateral discussions, it is difficult to halt these disruptive and destabilizing trends. All of this indicates that there is a new normal emerging with regard to outer space activities. Prof. Chris Newman of Northumbria University in a presentation recently argued that a “normative behaviour is emerging and ASAT tests are a part of that normative framework.”

Unfortunately, a new treaty-like mechanism is hard to come by for a number of different reasons. The most significant challenge is the lack of political will and the inability to develop consensus among major space powers. Equally challenging are definitional issues and the dual-use nature of outer space which makes it difficult to frame appropriate rules. Finding a middle ground between legally-binding and voluntary measures is the only possible pathway in the immediate future.

This article originally appeared in The Diplomat.

The post It Is Time For Space Governance Talks – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Eurasia Review: Australia And New Zealand Commit To Multi-State ‘Bubble’ – Analysis

Geopolitical Monitor — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:35:15 -0400

By Alistair Duff

Australia and New Zealand have committed to a trans-Tasman travel zone setting a viable precedent for other states to follow. Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Jacinda Ardern agreed the plan would move ahead “as soon as it is safe to do so.”

The idea of a shared ‘bubble’ is still in the early stages of planning and there is no clear timeline in place. Ardern said the plan is still some time away and New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, said “international travel is a mid- to long-term vision.” Still, the agreement presents a promising framework for a post COVID-19 recovery.

A multilateral economic reopening would be a vital step toward Australia’s and New Zealand’s recoveries. With infections low and trending down there is the tangible possibility of creating a zone that’s free of COVID-19 in the South Pacific. The commitment illustrates the strong solidarity between the two states in a time when international cooperation has rescinded.

COVID-19 in Australia and New Zealand

Australia and New Zealand are similarly affected by COVID-19. Australia has 278 total cases per million people compared to New Zealand’s 312. This is relatively low when compared to other developed states: Italy (3,760), USA (4,826) and the UK (3,698). The combined number of active cases across Australia and New Zealand is now under 539.

Both states have had strong responses to the spread of COVID-19, spearheaded by centralized responses from leaders. Favorable (isolated) geography, relatively high rates of testing, and the early introduction of social distancing laws have enabled the two nations to respond robustly. The trans-Tasman states are now pushing towards elimination of Covid-19 from their populations.

Though Australia and New Zealand have both responded well from a public health standpoint, they have not been immune to the deep economic effects.

Both states are particularly impacted by the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher service sectors and high consumption suffer more with cross-border economic shutdown. Other key industries such as tourism are severely impacted by the pandemic. In New Zealand, the tourism industry is fundamental to the economy; it is the largest source of foreign currency (21%), accounts for 4% of GDP, and 8.4% of total employment.

Both states have responded emphatically to meet the enormous effects of the economic slowdown. On March 40, Australia’s government announced a $130 billion ‘JobKeeper Payment’ to help keep Australians employed as part of a $320 billion package (16.4% of GDP).

Even with these unprecedented attempts to stem the impending economic impact of COVID-19, the two states will still struggle in the year ahead. The Royal Bank of Australia expects Australian annual average GDP growth to be around -6% to -7% in 2020, while NZ’s major banks expect GDP growth of about -8.5%. Global supply chains have been shaken, and particularly so with China, which comprises roughly a quarter of all of Australia’s and New Zealand’s trade.

The plan for a post COVID-19 reopening

It is only fitting that the first step for either country is to open its borders to the other. Australia and New Zealand are closely linked geographically, economically, and culturally.

Some 650,000 New Zealanders live in Australia and 70,000 Australians in New Zealand. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, travel between the states was governed by the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangements (TTTA) of 1973, which allow Australians and New Zealanders to visit, live, and work in either country without restrictions. The two states are closely linked in trade under ANZCERTA – a comprehensive free trade agreement.

The proposed trans-Tasman bubble therefore is the natural first step in opening the two states. As stated, the plan is in its earliest stages and very little information has been confirmed. The emphasis appears to be on opening up travel. The economic flow on effects of which would be huge for both states.

Implications: A growing multilateral bubble?

The COVID-19 recovery presents a unique challenge. Although some nations have retreated into unilateralism, recovering in the post-COVID world will depend on multilateral cooperation. The economic burden of the virus must be balanced against the health challenges of containing it.

For Australia and New Zealand, a COVID-19 free bloc in the South Pacific can be the model for other states in the latter end of the infection curve. A similar shared bubble may occur in states with strong economic and social ties that are also low in infections, such as the Nordic states.

There is the huge potential not only of expanding the bubble to the island states of the Pacific but even to Asian states. Neville Power, the lead of a Coronavirus Coordination Commission in Australia, raised the possibility of opening up to markets, including Japan, South Korea, and China. Australia and New Zealand have significant trade ties with the pacific rim states.

There is the potential that the combined resources of Australia and New Zealand may reduce their dependency on the far East – particularly China. In recent years there has been a discussion of dependency on Chinese trade, particularly in Australia. China accounts for around a quarter of all trade for Australia and New Zealand. China exports masses of manufactured goods and is a major market for key imports such as dairy, timber, iron, ore, and gas. The arguments that Australia and New Zealand are becoming dependent has grown in recent years and a shared bubble to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic may add fuel to the fire. The US has spoken of an ‘Economic Prosperity Network’ including Australia and New Zealand – a trans-Tasman bubble may form a subset of this larger anti-China network.

Conclusion

The real winner of the trans-Tasman bubble will be the domestic industries most acutely affected by the pandemic. Tourism, air travel, and the restaurant industry are all struggling to stay afloat.

It is still too early to make any assumptions concerning potential geopolitical implications. A trans-Tasman bubble only vindicates the close relationship of Australia and New Zealand. The possibilities of a roadmap to recovery after the pandemic are worth keeping a close eye on.

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

The post Australia And New Zealand Commit To Multi-State ‘Bubble’ – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Eurasia Review: Pope Francis Entrusts China To The Blessed Virgin Mary

CNA — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:30:32 -0400

By Courtney Mares

Pope Francis Sunday entrusted China to the Blessed Virgin Mary, and asked people to pray for a new outpouring of the Holy Spirit upon the most populated country in the world.

“Dear Catholic brothers and sisters in China, I wish to assure you that the universal Church, of which you are an integral part, shares your hopes and supports you in trials,” Pope Francis said May 24 after the Regina Caeli prayer.

“It accompanies you with prayer for a new outpouring of the Holy Spirit, so that the light and beauty of the Gospel, the power of God for the salvation of whoever believes, can shine in you,” the pope said.

Pope Francis imparted a special Apostolic Blessing upon China for the feast of Our Lady Help of Christians. The Marian shrine of Sheshan in Shanghai, which is dedicated to Our Lady Help of Christians, remains closed on this feast after the Diocese of Shanghai suspended all pilgrimages for the month of May to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“We entrust the pastors and faithful of the Catholic Church in that great country to the guidance and protection of our Heavenly Mother, so that they may be strong in faith and firm in fraternal union, joyful witnesses and promoters of charity and fraternal hope, and good citizens,” Pope Francis said.

“May Our Lady always guard you!” he added.

In his Regina Caeli address, the pope reflected on the words of Jesus recorded in Gospel of Matthew for the feast of the Ascension of the Lord: “Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Spirit, teaching them to observe all that I have commanded you.”

China is home to more than 10 million Catholics, with six million registered as members of the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, according to official statistics.

The Holy See and the Chinese government signed a provisional agreement in 2018 on the appointment of bishops in the state-sponsored Church, the terms of which have still not been publicly released. In the wake of the deal, previously excommunicated bishops of the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, which is overseen by the Communist Party, were received into full communion with the Vatican.

A report published in 2020 by the U.S. China Commission found that Chinese Catholics suffered “increasing persecution” after the Vatican-China deal. It said the government was “demolishing churches, removing crosses, and continuing to detain underground clergy.” Priests and bishops have reportedly been detained or have gone into hiding.

Earlier this week, the Vatican revealed that Catholics in China were able to use the most popular Chinese state-monitored social media platform, WeChat, to livestream Pope Francis’ daily Mass during the coronavirus pandemic.

It is unclear whether Catholics in China were also able to watch the livestream of this Sunday Marian prayer for their country on WeChat due to the heavy censorship of all Chinese online media.

Pope Benedict XVI established the custom of praying for China on the Marian feast of Our Lady Help of Christians in 2007, and composed a prayer to Our Lady of Sheshan for the occasion.

Pope Francis entrusted to the intercession of Mary Help of Christians all Christian disciples and people of good will who are working for peace, dialogue between nations, service to the poor, and the custody of creation.

The pope also marked the fifth anniversary of publication of his environmental encyclical, Laudato si’. He said that he wrote Laudato si’ to “draw attention to the cry of the Earth and the poor.”

Pope Francis spoke during his Regina Caeli address via livestream video recorded in the library of the Vatican’s Apostolic Palace. However, for the first time in more than 10 weeks, people were allowed to be present in St. Peter’s Square when the pope appeared in the window to give a blessing.

Each person who entered the square was required to wear a face mask and security enforced social distancing for the people gathered outside of St. Peter’s Basilica, which reopened to the public on May 18.

After more than 5 million people around the world have been documented with COVID-19, the pope asked Our Lady Help of Christians to intercede “for the victory of humanity over every disease of the body, heart, and soul.”

“The feast of Ascension tells us that Jesus, although he ascended into Heaven to dwell gloriously on the right hand of the Father, is still and always among us for us to derive strength, perseverance, and our joy,” Pope Francis said.

The post Pope Francis Entrusts China To The Blessed Virgin Mary appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Samsung Galaxy Note 20 leaks hint at giant screens and S20 Ultra features - Engadget

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Eurasia Review: Babies Know When You Imitate Them – And Like It (Video)

Eurasia Review — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:22:12 -0400

Six-month old infants recognize when adults imitate them, and perceive imitators as more friendly, according to a new study from Lund University in Sweden. The babies looked and smiled longer at an adult who imitated them, as opposed to when the adult responded in other ways. Babies also approached them more, and engaged in imitating games. The research is published in PLOS One.

In the study, a researcher met 6-month old babies in their homes and played with them in four different ways. The researcher either: imitated everything the babies did as a mirror, or as a reverse mirror, imitated only the bodily actions of the babies while keeping an immobile face, or responded with a different action when the babies acted. The latter is called contingent responding and is how most parents would respond to their baby – when the baby does or needs something, you react accordingly.

The researchers found that the babies looked and smiled longer, and tried to approach the adult more often, during the close mirroring of their actions.

“Imitating young infants seems to be an effective way to catch their interest and bond with them. The mothers were quite surprised to see their infants joyfully engaging in imitation games with a stranger, but also impressed by the infants’ behaviours”, says Gabriela-Alina Sauciuc, researcher at Lund University and main author of the study.

There was also much testing behavior during imitation. For example, if the baby hit the table and the researcher imitated that action, the baby would then hit the table several times, while carefully watching the researcher’s responses. Even when the researcher did not show any emotions at all while imitating, the babies still seemed to recognize that they were being imitated – and still responded with testing behavior.

“This was quite interesting. When someone actively tests the person who is imitating them, itis usually seen as an indication that the imitated individual is aware that there is a correspondence between their own behaviour and the behaviour of the other”, Sauciuc says.

Scientists have long speculated that, through frequent exposure to being imitated, babies learn about cultural norms and interactional routines, or that shared actions are accompanied by shared feelings and intentions. But the empirical evidence to back up such theories is largely missing.

“By showing that 6-month-old infants recognise when they are being imitated, and that imitation has a positive effect on interaction, we begin to fill up this gap. We still have to find out when exactly imitation begins to have such effects, and what role imitation recognition actually plays for babies”, Sauciuc concludes.

The post Babies Know When You Imitate Them – And Like It (Video) appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Eurasia Review: Social And Political Fallout From Pandemic Likely To Be Far Greater Than Economic – OpEd

Paul Goble — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:18:19 -0400

There are two extreme views of the social-political and economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, Vladimir Pastukhov observes, that the pandemic will change everything or that it will change very little. The truth is somewhere in between, but it is highly likely the fallout will hit the social and political system harder than the economic one.

That may seem counterintuitive, the London-based Russian analyst says, given the extent to which the pandemic and responses to it have shut down the economies, led to mass unemployment and made it likely that many firms won’t be able to recover (mbk-news.appspot.com/sences/postkoronavirusnyj/).

But it makes sense if one considers that the pandemic is a trigger that will accelerate or slow trends already in place. Once that is recognized, it is clear that the biggest firms with monopoly power will do the best because they have the greatest access to sources of credit while the smallest ones who are agile at using the Internet will also have good possibilities.

The companies that will do the worst, Pastukhov says, are those in the middle. They are “the dinosaurs” in this crisis, and there is little question that they will begin to “massively die off.” But these developments will only be an acceleration of trends that have been in place one way or another for “about 150 years.”

According to the London-based Russian analyst, “the social and political response to the crisis will likely be disproportionate and much more severe than the economic ones.” That is because “economics doesn’t exist in a vacuum” and the political responses to the economic consequences of the pandemic will thus be doubled.

Beyond question, “the virus is especially dangerous for the middle class, which in the short term is likely to be the main victim of the crisis.” While some of its members will see their opportunities increase if they seize the Internet, most will see their status and incomes fall relative to state bureaucracies and other groups in the population.

Even beyond the middle class, “the crisis will make an enormous number of people strongly dependent on budgetary spending. Unemployment is only part of this problem,” and “the administration of budget funds could become the nerve center of the new post-coronavirus politics.”

These funds will require the development of “a more powerful bureaucratic apparatus” and so “the world awaits the growth of statism in all its manifestations,” including the proclivity of those in charge to maintain restrictions and mobilization arrangements long after the conditions that gave rise to them pass.

According to Pastukhov, “the space of freedom in its old traditional-liberal understanding – everything that isn’t prohibited is permitted – will certainly be reduced. The world will become much more regulated.” And the turn to the left will accelerate, albeit often under what appear to be anything but leftist slogans.

That is because “the heroes of the post-coronavirus world will be not investment bankers and lawyers but doctors and pizza deliverymen in the broadest sense of the world.” They will demand that society show respect to them and that it move to equalize incomes, taxing the rich to support those less well-off.

Pastukhov says that “erzats nationalism, better known under the disorienting name ‘right-wing populism’ will either disappear or on the contrary be reborn in a malignant form.” That is because once the pandemic is over, the leaders who oversaw national responses are going to be subject to serious criticism for their failings.

In some places, current leaders will be driven from power, the analyst continues; but in others, they may survive by launching “an aggressive counter-attack on the positions of civil society. In that case, they may be reformatted into fascism-lite in a specifically post-modernist version.”

All this will lead to an increase in “risks for democracy. People will have to struggle everywhere for democracy and not just, for example, in Russia.” Democracy unfortunately “even in the West not to speak about other places will cease to be viewed as something that can be taken for granted.”

That could create some strange new alliances both within countries and between them, undercutting existing arrangements and creating new ones. Humanity isn’t ready for these shocks and thus is likely to resist even as underlying forces carry them along in that direction, Pastukhov says.

And there is one thing more that must be kept in mind: what he has outlined is a general trend. Some countries will move further and faster in that direction than others. As a result, the real impact of the pandemic on all aspects of life will only be clear long after the event. It is certainly not clear as the coronavirus danger has not yet passed.

The post Social And Political Fallout From Pandemic Likely To Be Far Greater Than Economic – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Reporter's Notebook: 'Obamagate' is a lot more complex than it may sound - Fox News

Sun, 24 May 2020 19:17:57 -0400

Reporter's Notebook: 'Obamagate' is a lot more complex than it may sound Fox News

"house judiciary committee" - Google News: Reporter's Notebook: 'Obamagate' is a lot more complex than it may sound - Fox News

Sun, 24 May 2020 19:17:57 -0400

Reporter's Notebook: 'Obamagate' is a lot more complex than it may sound Fox News

"house judiciary committee" - Google News

Building the Post-Pandemic World - The National Interest

Sun, 24 May 2020 19:15:50 -0400

Building the Post-Pandemic World The National Interest

"global security" - Google News: Building the Post-Pandemic World - The National Interest

Sun, 24 May 2020 19:15:50 -0400

Building the Post-Pandemic World The National Interest

"global security" - Google News

Eurasia Review: Call For US To Not Sell Attack Helicopters To Philippines

Eurasia Review — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:13:56 -0400

The US Congress should block or delay sales of almost $2 billion in attack helicopters and munitions to the Philippines until the government adopts major reforms to end military abuses and hold those responsible to account, Human Rights Watch said.

The Trump administration notified Congress in late April 2020 of two possible Foreign Military Sales by the US military to the Philippines, one for $1.5 billion including six AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, a second for $450 million including six AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters, both with accompanying guided missiles, rockets, and light cannon ammunition, as well as ongoing service contracts for training, parts, and maintenance.

The Philippines military has a long track record of violations of human rights and the laws of war during counter-insurgency operations against the communist New People’s Army and Moro armed groups, including disregard of civilian life, hundreds of extrajudicial executions, mistreatment of displaced people, and indiscriminate attacks. The military also has a poor record of holding those responsible for human rights abuses accountable.

“Approving contracts for attack helicopters would be sending a terrible message to the Philippine government that long-running military abuses without accountability have no consequences on the US-Philippines relationship,” said John Sifton, Asia advocacy director. “Congress should be impressing upon the Philippine government that real reforms are needed to end military abuses before deals like this can be approved.”

The Philippine military has a deeply rooted culture of impunity, Human Rights Watch said. Data from the Philippines Department of National Defense indicate that only one soldier has been convicted of an extrajudicial killing since 2001.

For much of the past decade, the US Congress has imposed conditions or restrictions on military assistance to the Philippines, communicating that cuts could only be restored if the Philippine government systematically improved its record, which the government never did. The arrest in August 2014 of Jovito Palparan, a retired Army major general implicated in numerous cases of abductions, torture, and killing, and his conviction in 2018, was a rare challenge to the impunity for military personnel, which multiple Philippine presidential administrations have failed to adequately address. There have been no other such convictions.

Unlawful attacks against leftists that the military accuse of being members of or sympathizers with the New People’s Army have continued, particularly in the central Philippine island of Negros. The government has also ramped up its dangerous anti-communist rhetoric against these individuals and groups.

The US State Department has not received any assurances about where these weapons systems would be deployed or for what purpose, Human Rights Watch said.

Congress has various means to stop or delay the sales. Members of Congress can introduce a “resolution of disapproval” and seek to vote it into law, and individual members on certain committees can place a “hold” on the sales pending further review.

If the sales goes forward, the US government should put the Philippines on notice that ongoing and future servicing and supply of parts for the weapons systems will cease in the event the systems are used illegally. Under US law illegal use of weapons constitute a violation of their End Use Certificates, which impose various restrictions on their use after a sale.

The proposed sales come at a time of a deeply deteriorating human rights situation in the Philippines and the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. After President Rodrigo Duterte began his “war on drugs” in mid-2016, the police have killed more than 5,600 people in anti-drug operations, according to official statistics. Thousands more have died in killings attributed to unidentified gunmen. The killings have orphaned thousands of children who suffer from the emotional, psychological, and economic impacts of the campaign. More than 100 children have been killed between 2016 and 2018.

“The US should not be selling advanced military systems to an abusive, unaccountable Philippine military under cover of a global pandemic,” Sifton said. “Congress needs to act now.”

The post Call For US To Not Sell Attack Helicopters To Philippines appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Eurasia Review: Over 40% Of Republicans Think Bill Gates Planning To Implant Microchips

PanARMENIAN — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:09:21 -0400

44% of Republicans believe that Bill Gates is plotting to use a mass Covid-19 vaccination campaign as a pretext to implant microchips in billions of people and monitor their movements, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

The survey, which was conducted May 20 and 21, found that only 26% of Republicans correctly identify the story as false.

In contrast, just 19% of Democrats believe the same spurious narrative about the Microsoft founder and public-health philanthropist. A majority of Democrats recognize that it’s not true.

The new Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that this “choose your own reality” effect is distorting perceptions of nearly every aspect of the pandemic, from reopening to vaccination to the official death toll. A broad majority of the public is either “very” (56%) or “somewhat” concerned (30%) about “false or misleading information being communicated about coronavirus.” That sentiment, at least, is not partisan: More than 80% of Democrats, Republicans and independents agree.

More than 2 million have recovered from the novel coronavirus globally, according to Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking figures from the World Health Organization and additional sources. There are now more than 5.2 million cases of the novel coronavirus worldwide, while more than 338,000 people have died from Covid-19 complications.

The post Over 40% Of Republicans Think Bill Gates Planning To Implant Microchips appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Welp, There's Already a Jailbreak Tool for Apple's Latest Version of iOS - Gizmodo

Sun, 24 May 2020 19:08:54 -0400

Welp, There's Already a Jailbreak Tool for Apple's Latest Version of iOS Gizmodo
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Eurasia Review: Israel: Netanyahu In Court On Corruption Charges

Arab News — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:07:19 -0400

Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday became the first sitting prime minister of Israel to go on trial on criminal charges.

Netanyahu is accused of fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in a series of corruption cases stemming from ties to wealthy friends. Prosecutors say he accepted lavish gifts, and offered favors to powerful media moguls in exchange for favorable coverage of him and his family.

As he entered the court, Netanyahu launched into a lengthy tirade against Israel’s justice system in which he accused police, prosecutors, judges and the media of a conspiracy to oust him against the will of the people.

“I stand before you with a straight back and head raised high,” he said.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said that Netanyahu’s “wild and inciteful outburst” was “final proof that a criminal defendant cannot continue to be prime minister.”

Hundreds of protesters gathered at Netanyahu’s official residence to demonstrate against what they called a “crime minister,” and carried posters calling for his resignation. They faced off across police barricades with the prime minister’s backers.

“I am ashamed,” read one placard. Netanyahu was “taking the country hostage,” said Dalia Hazon, who made a 90 km bus trip to take part in the protest. Another protester, Yoav Eitan, 39, said: “I am very worried. I think that Bibi has no constraints and will do anything not to go to prison.”

Netanyahu did not speak during the one-hour court hearing, and rose just once to confirm he understood the charges. Legal analysts expect the case to last for several years. The next hearing was set for July 19.

The post Israel: Netanyahu In Court On Corruption Charges appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Eurasia Review: Spain To Partially Lift Lockdown Restrictions In Madrid On Monday

RT — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:04:51 -0400

Spanish authorities will lift part of the lockdown restrictions in Madrid on Monday, the regional health department said on Friday. It says the pace of the coronavirus contagion in the region has slowed down.

The restrictions in the capital are now the same as in most of the country that started phasing out the lockdown in early May.

Bars and restaurants in Madrid will be allowed to reopen terraces and groups of up to 10 people will be allowed to meet, according to Reuters.

The post Spain To Partially Lift Lockdown Restrictions In Madrid On Monday appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Impact of Different Geriatric Conditions on Choice of Therapy and In-H | CIA - Dove Medical Press

Sun, 24 May 2020 19:00:31 -0400

Impact of Different Geriatric Conditions on Choice of Therapy and In-H | CIA Dove Medical Press

"cia" - Google News: Impact of Different Geriatric Conditions on Choice of Therapy and In-H | CIA - Dove Medical Press

Sun, 24 May 2020 19:00:31 -0400

Impact of Different Geriatric Conditions on Choice of Therapy and In-H | CIA Dove Medical Press

"cia" - Google News

Eurasia Review: Trump Again Tweets Conspiracy Theory Linking TV Host To A 2001 Death

VOA — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:00:01 -0400

By Ken Bredemeier

U.S. President Donald Trump is rekindling one of his long-running conspiracy theories, that a Republican congressman turned television critic of his played a nefarious role in the death of a young woman in 2001.

Trump tweeted twice over the weekend about the death of aide Lori Klausutis in the Florida congressional office of Joe Scarborough shortly before Scarborough left Congress and later became an MSNBC television talk show host.

Scarborough often interviewed candidate Trump on his “Morning Joe” show as he ran for the presidency in 2016, but more recently, along with his wife and show co-host Mika Brzezinski, has become a thorn in Trump’s side as he faces a re-election contest in November.

Earlier in May, Trump tweeted, ““When will they open a Cold Case on the Psycho Joe Scarborough matter in Florida. Did he get away with murder? Some people think so.”

Then, on Saturday, Trump tweeted, “A blow to her head? Body found under his desk? Left Congress suddenly? Big topic of discussion in Florida…and, he’s a Nut Job (with bad ratings). Keep digging, use forensic geniuses!”

On Sunday morning, Trump added another tweet: “A lot of interest in this story about Psycho Joe Scarborough. So a young marathon runner just happened to faint in his office, hit her head on his desk, & die? I would think there is a lot more to this story than that? An affair? What about the so-called investigator? Read story!”

Trump tweeted about the case at least as far back as 2017. But a coroner found no evidence of foul play, ruling that that the 28-year-old Klausutis died because of a heart problem, causing her to hit her head on her desk. Scarborough was in Washington at the time she died.

Trump has long traded in debunked conspiracy theories.

Perhaps his most discredited theory was that former U.S. President Barack Obama was not born in the U.S. state of Hawaii and shouldn’t have been eligible to become the country’s leader, a claim Trump eventually acknowledged was wrong as he ran for the presidency in 2016.

Trump also claimed that he saw Muslims in a television report celebrating the Sept. 11, 2001, al-Qaida terrorist jetliner attack on the twin towers of New York’s World Trade Center by dancing on the rooftop of a building in neighboring New Jersey. No such television report has been found.

The post Trump Again Tweets Conspiracy Theory Linking TV Host To A 2001 Death appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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The National Interest: Why the U.S. Government Seized Citizens' Gold in the 1930s

Chris Colvin, Philip Fliers — Sun, 24 May 2020 19:00:00 -0400

Chris Colvin, Philip Fliers

Monetary Policy,

Gold ownership remained illegal in the US until the 1970s.

With global financial markets in disarray, many investors are turning to classic safe havens. Gold is trading above US$1,750 (£1,429) per troy ounce, which is the standard measure – more than 15% above where it started 2020. Even after a strong rally since March, the S&P 500 is down nearly 10% over the same period.

Gold confers familiarity during downturns. Its returns are uncorrelated with assets like stocks, so it tends to hold its value when they fall. It is also a good way of avoiding currency devaluation. It therefore features in any well diversified investor’s portfolio, whether via gold-mining shares, gold funds, bullion or whatever.

Yet there are two slight caveats to viewing gold as a safe haven. Early in an economic downturn, gold prices often plummet with the rest of the market. This is from investors selling gold to offset losses in shares and other assets. We saw this in March, when gold fell 12% in two weeks, then quickly recovered. If the coronavirus causes more market panic, this could happen again.

During extreme crises, governments can also seize people’s gold. There have been some stunning examples of “gold confiscation” in the past. Most memorably, this occurred in the US in 1933 during the great depression – albeit it’s more accurate to call it a nationalisation than a confiscation, since citizens were compensated. The government of Franklin D Roosevelt seized all gold bullion and coins via Executive Order 6102, forcing citizens to sell at well below market rates. Immediately after the “confiscation”, the government set a new official rate for gold that was much higher as part of the Gold Reserve Act 1934.

This was the era of the gold standard, which meant dollars were tradeable for an exact amount of the precious metal. Seizing the metal enabled the government to print more dollars to try to stimulate the economy, and also to buy more dollars on the international markets to shore up the exchange rate.

Many gold owners were understandably unhappy about the gold seizure, and some fought it in the courts. Ultimately, however, the government could not be stopped, and gold ownership remained illegal in the US until the 1970s.

This intervention was not unique, even in contemporary history. In 1959, Australia’s government put a law in place that allowed gold seizures from private citizens if “expedient to do so, for the protection of the currency or of the public credit of the Commonwealth [of Australia]”. And in 1966, to stop the decline in the pound, the UK government banned citizens from owning more than four gold or silver coins and blocked the private import of gold. This was only lifted in 1979.

Horns of a trilemma

Why do governments risk the bad publicity of restricting gold? This is linked to a cornerstone of macroeconomics known as the monetary policy trilemma. This states that countries must choose between two of the following and can’t generally do all three at the same time: (1) setting fixed exchange rates; (2) allowing capital to move freely over international borders; and (3) being able to independently set interest rates and print money (in other words, control monetary policy).

In the 1930s system, countries generally chose fixed exchange rates linked to gold, plus free capital movement and sacrificed control of monetary policy. The system came under more and more pressure because too many investors were trading in their money for gold. One way for the US to take enough control of monetary policy to print more money was to impose various capital controls, including seizing gold.

Today, the situation is different because western economies have free-floating exchange rates so they have control over monetary policy and can allow capital to move freely. This means that during a crisis, they can print money and cut interest rates without having to impose controls on the likes of gold.

In fact, any direct meddling by governments in the gold markets today would likely be counterproductive. It would increase investor anxiety and encourage them to rush to other assets with similar properties such as silver or other precious metals. Those who hold gold are therefore probably safer than they might have been in the past.

There are alternatives open to governments besides outright gold nationalisation. For example, when the UK left the international gold standard in 1931, the devaluation of the pound put pressure on other currencies such as the Dutch guilder. In response, the Netherlands imposed a variety of restrictions on gold that stopped short of confiscation.

Again, this kind of move is unnecessary in today’s era when countries control their own monetary policy. Gold will probably remain a safe haven on the sidelines – unless countries felt they had to sell their reserves aggressively for some reason, say to reduce debts. Even in the current crisis, that’s not on the horizon. But the one lesson from history that all investors need to bear in mind is that in times of crisis, anything goes.

Chris Colvin, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Queen's University Belfast.

Philip Fliers, Lecturer in Finance, Queen's University Belfast.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

The National Interest

As Florida hits the beach on Memorial Day weekend, state’s coronavirus cases push past 50,000 - South Florida - South Florida Sun Sentinel

Sun, 24 May 2020 18:55:05 -0400

As Florida hits the beach on Memorial Day weekend, state’s coronavirus cases push past 50,000 - South Florida South Florida Sun Sentinel
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Masks mandatory: Miami-Dade beaches to reopen amid COVID-19, but with new rules Miami Herald
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Police: Neighbors pulled boy from water an hour before mother pushed him a second time WPLG Local 10
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Eurasia Review: Iranian, Turkish Presidents Discuss Reopening Of Border, Resumption Of Trade

Tasnim News Agency — Sun, 24 May 2020 18:53:12 -0400

The presidents of Iran and Turkey weighed plans to reopen the borders and resume the trade exchanges between the two neighbors after a weeks-long hiatus in the wake of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

In a telephone conversation on Sunday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for an immediate reopening of land and air borders between the two countries in conformity with the health protocols to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

Citing the global economic problems caused by the outbreak of the pandemic, the two presidents called for the resumption of the trade exchanges and freight services between Iran and Turkey.

They also expressed hope that a new session of Iran-Turkey Joint Economic Cooperation Commission in the near future and after settlement of the coronavirus crisis would give fresh impetus to the economic collaboration between the two Muslim neighbors and help implement the previous bilateral agreements.

Hailing the history of close cooperation between Tehran and Ankara, the two presidents stressed the need to promote interaction and share experiences and knowledge in the fight against COVID-19.

“In the current situation, reopening of the land and air borders in conformity with the health protocols and the resumption of the trade and commodity exchanges is a must for both countries,” Rouhani underlined.

For his part, Erdogan emphasized that the mutual cooperation and sharing experiences in the battle with COVID-19 will be highly effective.

Highlighting the importance of expansion of economic and trade ties with Iran, the Turkish leader said he will issue the necessary orders to reopen the border crossings and restart the trade exchanges with Iran.

The two presidents also congratulated each other on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan.

The post Iranian, Turkish Presidents Discuss Reopening Of Border, Resumption Of Trade appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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"International Security" - Google News: China raises US trade tensions with warning of ‘new cold war’ - The Guardian

Sun, 24 May 2020 18:52:51 -0400

China raises US trade tensions with warning of ‘new cold war’ The Guardian

"International Security" - Google News

Americans soak up sun on beaches as coronavirus death toll nears 100,000 - Reuters

Sun, 24 May 2020 18:48:50 -0400

GOP Congressman Asks Trump to Stop Spreading 'Unfounded' Joe Scarborough Conspiracy: 'It Will Destroy Us' - Newsweek

Sun, 24 May 2020 18:46:45 -0400

GOP Congressman Asks Trump to Stop Spreading 'Unfounded' Joe Scarborough Conspiracy: 'It Will Destroy Us' Newsweek
Florida family grieves as Trump spreads debunked conspiracy theory to attack MSNBC host The Washington Post
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Trump accuses TV presenter of murder as coronavirus deaths near 100,000 The Independent
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Eurasia Review: Fire Aerosols Decrease Global Terrestrial Ecosystem Productivity Through Changing Climate

Eurasia Review — Sun, 24 May 2020 18:45:32 -0400

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale, and a major source of aerosols from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere.

Most previous studies have quantified the effect of fire aerosols on climate and atmospheric circulation, or on the regional and site-scale terrestrial ecosystem productivity. So far, only one work has quantified the global impacts of fire aerosols on terrestrial ecosystem productivity. It was based on offline simulations driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing, so did not consider the fire aerosols’ impacts through changing climate (e.g., cloud-aerosol interactions or climate feedbacks).

In a paper recently published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Dr. Fang Li from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, provided the first quantitative assessment of fire aerosols on global ecosystem productivity that takes into account the influence of aerosols’ climatic effects. The study was based on fully coupled (atmosphere-land-ocean-sea-ice) simulations of the global Earth system model CESM1.2.

According to this study, fire aerosols generally decreased terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP, carbon input of terrestrial ecosystem, the carbon uptake through photosynthesis) in vegetated areas, with a global total of 1.6 Pg C per year, mainly because fire aerosols cooled and dried the land surface and weakened the direct photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Exceptions to this were the Amazon and some regions in North America, which was mainly due to a fire-aerosol-induced wetter land surface and increased diffuse PAR.

“Cooling, drying, and light attenuation are major impacts of fire aerosols on the global terrestrial ecosystem productivity,” concludes Dr. Li.

The post Fire Aerosols Decrease Global Terrestrial Ecosystem Productivity Through Changing Climate appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Eurasia Review: New Gravitational-Wave Model Can Bring Neutron Stars Into Even Sharper Focus

Eurasia Review — Sun, 24 May 2020 18:41:50 -0400

Gravitational-wave researchers at the University of Birmingham have developed a new model that promises to yield fresh insights into the structure and composition of neutron stars.

The model shows that vibrations, or oscillations, inside the stars can be directly measured from the gravitational-wave signal alone. This is because neutron stars will become deformed under the influence of tidal forces, causing them to oscillate at characteristic frequencies, and these encode unique information about the star in the gravitational-wave signal.

This makes asteroseismology — the study of stellar oscillations — with gravitational waves from colliding neutron stars a promising new tool to probe the elusive nature of extremely dense nuclear matter.

Neutron stars are the ultradense remnants of collapsed massive stars. They have been observed in the thousands in the electromagnetic spectrum and yet little is known about their nature. Unique information can be gleaned through measuring the gravitational waves emitted when two neutron stars meet and form a binary system. First predicted by Albert Einstein, these ripples in spacetime were first detected by the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015.

By utilising the gravitational wave signal to measure the oscillations of the neutron stars, researchers will be able to discover new insights into the interior of these stars. The study is published in Nature Communications.

Dr Geraint Pratten, of the University of Birmingham’s Gravitational Wave Institute, is lead author of the study. He explained: “As the two stars spiral around each other, their shapes become distorted by the gravitational force exerted by their companion. This becomes more and more pronounced and leaves a unique imprint in the gravitational wave signal.

“The tidal forces acting on the neutron stars excite oscillations inside the star giving us insight into their internal structure. By measuring these oscillations from the gravitational-wave signal, we can extract information about the fundamental nature and composition of these mysterious objects that would otherwise be inaccessible.”

The model developed by the team enables the frequency of these oscillations to be determined directly from gravitational-wave measurements for the first time. The researchers used their model on the first observed gravitational-wave signal from a binary neutron star merger – GW170817.

Co-lead author, Dr Patricia Schmidt, added: “Almost three years after the first gravitational-waves from a binary neutron star were observed, we are still finding new ways to extract more information about them from the signals. The more information we can gather by developing ever more sophisticated theoretical models, the closer we will get to revealing the true nature of neutron stars.”

Next generation gravitational wave observatories planned for the 2030s, will be capable of detecting far more binary neutron stars and observing them in much greater detail than is currently possible. The model produced by the Birmingham team will make a significant contribution to this science.

“The information from this initial event was limited as there was quite a lot of background noise that made the signal difficult to isolate,” says Dr Pratten. “With more sophisticated instruments we can measure the frequencies of these oscillations much more precisely and this should start to yield some really interesting insights.”

The post New Gravitational-Wave Model Can Bring Neutron Stars Into Even Sharper Focus appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eurasia Review

Eurasia Review: Artificial Intelligence Can Make Personality Judgments Based On Our Photographs

Eurasia Review — Sun, 24 May 2020 18:38:19 -0400

Russian researchers from HSE University and Open University for the Humanities and Economics have demonstrated that artificial intelligence is able to infer people’s personality from ‘selfie’ photographs better than human raters do. Conscientiousness emerged to be more easily recognizable than the other four traits. Personality predictions based on female faces appeared to be more reliable than those for male faces. The technology can be used to find the ‘best matches’ in customer service, dating or online tutoring.

The article ‘Assessing the Big Five personality traits using real-life static facial images’ is published in Scientific Reports.

Physiognomists from Ancient Greece to Cesare Lombroso have tried to link facial appearance to personality, but the majority of their ideas failed to withstand the scrutiny by modern science. The few established associations of specific facial features, such as facial width-to-height ratio, with personality traits are quite weak. Studies asking human raters to make personality judgments based on photographs have produced inconsistent results, suggesting that our judgments are too unreliable to be of any practical importance.

Nevertheless, there are strong theoretical and evolutionary arguments to suggest that some information about personality characteristics, particularly, those essential for social communication, might be conveyed by the human face. After all, face and behaviour are both shaped by genes and hormones, and social experiences resulting from one’s appearance may affect one’s personality development. However, the recent evidence from neuroscience suggests that instead of looking at specific facial features, the human brain processes images of faces in a holistic manner.

Researchers from two Moscow universities, HSE University (Higher School of Economics) and Open University for the Humanities and Economics, have teamed up with a Russian-British business start-up BestFitMe to train a cascade of artificial neural networks to make reliable personality judgments based on photographs of human faces. The performance of the resulting model was above that discovered in previous studies which used machine learning or human raters. The artificial intelligence was able to make above-chance judgments about conscientiousness, neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness, and openness based on ‘selfies’ the volunteers uploaded online. The resulting personality judgments were consistent across different photographs of the same individuals.

The study was done in a sample of 12 thousand volunteers who completed a self-report questionnaire measuring personality traits based on the “Big Five” model and uploaded a total of 31 thousand ‘selfies’. The respondents were randomly split into a training and a test group. A series of neural networks were used to preprocess the images to ensure consistent quality and characteristics, and exclude faces with emotional expressions, as well as pictures of celebrities and cats. Next, an image classification neural network was trained to decompose each image into 128 invariant features, followed by a multi-layer perceptron that used image invariants to predict personality traits.

The average effect size of r = .24 indicates that AI can make a correct guess about the relative standing of two randomly chosen individuals on a personality dimension in 58% of cases as opposed to the 50% expected by chance. In comparison with the meta-analytic estimates of correlations between self-reported and observer ratings of personality traits, this indicates that an artificial neural network relying on static facial images outperforms an average human rater who meets the target in person without prior acquaintance. Conscientiousness emerged to be more easily recognizable than the other four traits. Personality predictions based on female faces appeared to be more reliable than those for male faces.

There are a vast number of potential applications to be explored. The recognition of personality from real-life photos can complement the traditional approaches to personality assessment in situations where high speed and low cost are more important than high accuracy. Artificial intelligence can be used to propose products that are the best fit for the customer’s personality or to select the possible ‘best matches’ for individuals in dyadic interactions, such as customer service, dating or online tutoring.

The post Artificial Intelligence Can Make Personality Judgments Based On Our Photographs appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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Military striving to meet the challenges of recruiting during the coronavirus pandemic

Sun, 24 May 2020 17:12:09 -0400

When the coronavirus pandemic hit, military recruiters nationwide shut down in-person access and went to digital platforms. In doing so, they’ve adjusted to a new normal, changing the way they’ve recruited for generations.

Stars and Stripes: Military striving to meet the challenges of recruiting during the coronavirus pandemic

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Second Missouri hairstylist may have exposed 56 clients to COVID-19: officials | TheHill - The Hill

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Florida family grieves as Trump spreads debunked conspiracy theory to attack MSNBC host - The Washington Post

Sun, 24 May 2020 16:51:32 -0400

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Sun, 24 May 2020 16:46:20 -0400

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Fallen soldier's connection to Memorial Day was a personal one

Sun, 24 May 2020 16:37:48 -0400

On Nov. 11, 1899, Maj. John A. Logan Jr. was killed during the Philippine-American War. His father, Maj. Gen. John A. Logan Sr., is credited with starting the tradition that has become Memorial Day.

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Sun, 24 May 2020 16:37:48 -0400

On Nov. 11, 1899, Maj. John A. Logan Jr. was killed during the Philippine-American War. His father, Maj. Gen. John A. Logan Sr., is credited with starting the tradition that has become Memorial Day.

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Sun, 24 May 2020 16:21:00 -0400

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Sun, 24 May 2020 16:14:44 -0400

Stars and Stripes: Alligator rumored to have been Hitler’s dies in Moscow

Sun, 24 May 2020 16:12:48 -0400

An alligator that many people believe once belonged to Adolf Hitler has died in the Moscow Zoo. The zoo said the alligator, named Saturn, was about 84 when he died Friday.

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Alligator rumored to have been Hitler’s dies in Moscow

Sun, 24 May 2020 16:12:48 -0400

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Sun, 24 May 2020 16:03:59 -0400

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The National Interest: Meet the Long Lost Broadway Landing: A Major Union Army Supply Depot

Warfare History Network — Sun, 24 May 2020 16:00:00 -0400

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History, Americas

What happened to the town?

In 1864, the Civil War was raging across the United States. At the epicenter of the seemingly stalemated conflict was the vital Confederate stronghold at Petersburg, Va. As Union and Confederate forces settled in for a lengthy siege—the Confederates inside the city and the Federal troops surrounding them to the south and east—the North set up numerous supply depots as spots for offloading siege ammunition. The best known supply depot was located at City Point. However, another small town in the area also served to bring heavy artillery, ammunition, and other supplies from the James and Appomattox Rivers to the army in the field. This town was Broadway Landing, located eight miles northeast of Petersburg.

Broadway Landing Before the War

The history of Broadway Landing began soon after the establishment of the Virginia colony. A number of settlers who lived farther east explored down the James River and in 1619 established Bermuda Hundred on a peninsula between the James and Appomattox Rivers. They were the first Europeans to set foot in what would become the town of Broadway Landing. Later in the 17th century, a man named Thomas Broadway moved into the area and named his land along the Appomattox River after himself. The town he established consisted of no more than his home and a few surrounding buildings for his relatives and slaves, but it soon began to grow. It quickly became the largest town in Prince George County, and because of its size, the Virginia Assembly granted the town the right to have a ferry cross the Appomattox River at that point. This began a long tradition of Broadway Landing as a major transportation center for the area south of Richmond.

When the Revolutionary War came, the British used Broadway Landing as a base for their preliminary attacks on Richmond during the 1781 campaign. After the victory of the American colonies, the Appomattox River grew in importance because of the emergence of the nearby town of Petersburg as the most important regional center of commerce. The river channel was deepened up to Broadway Landing in 1788 by an act of the Virginia legislature, and the town became the official port of Petersburg. It continued to be an important commercial center with the construction of the Munt Brick Plant. However, with the closing of the plant around 1830 and the subsequent movement of much of Petersburg’s trade to City Point, Broadway Landing began to fall into decline. By 1860, it was less a town than a tiny cluster of homes. The 1860 census reported Broadway Landing as having 8,411 people, 4,997 of them slaves, with 2,900 whites and 515 free blacks.

Establishing Broadway Landing as a Supply Depot

After the 1860 election of Abraham Lincoln as president and the secession of 11 Southern states, life seemed to move on normally at Broadway Landing. To the citizens of the small village, the opening shots fired in anger at Bull Run may as well have been a thousand miles away. Union Maj. Gen. George McClellan’s Peninsular Campaign in 1862 changed that misguided notion. After leaving the peninsula, Union troops passed within 15 miles of the town, and townsfolk could hear gunfire echoing across the James River. Within two years, the everyday life of every citizen of Broadway Landing would change dramatically as Union troops by the thousands entered the town and made it into a huge supply depot that would help sound the death knell of the Confederacy.

After three years of devastating conflict, the Union Army was frustrated in its repeated attempts to take Richmond. The Federals had over twice as many troops as Confederate General Robert E. Lee, but the core of their problems lay with their leadership. After suffering through years of incompetent generals, President Lincoln appointed Ulysses S. Grant commander-in-chief of the Union Army in the spring of 1864. Beginning that May, Grant assumed the task of taking Richmond at all costs. His two-part strategy involved winning battles to the north and east of Richmond while also sending a group of infantry under Maj. Gen. Benjamin Butler to Bermuda Hundred. Grant’s strategy did not begin well, with his army suffering three consecutive defeats at Spotsylvania, North Anna, and Cold Harbor. Undeterred, he decided to follow Butler across the James River and ultimately invest the major stronghold and transportation hub that was keeping the Confederacy alive—Petersburg.

Crossing the James and Appomattox Rivers required some preliminary exploration of the area before attacking Petersburg. Butler’s campaign at Bermuda Hundred had been costly and had accomplished very little. Except for the first death at Broadway Landing during the war (William Carroll, who drowned), there was not much action at this point within the town proper. All that was about to change. Confederate General P.G.T. Beauregard reported on May 30 that he had seen Union soldiers hastily withdrawing from the town. These were probably the last elements of Butler’s troops. However, 10 days later, Union soldiers led by Maj. Gen. Quincy Gillmore crossed the river. The final preliminary raids taking place around Broadway Landing were conducted by Brig. Gen. August Kautz, who led three cavalry forays in the month of June in the Petersburg-Bermuda Hundred area. Kautz’s June 22 raid attacked Confederate positions at Bermuda Hundred, around Petersburg, and at Broadway Landing. These raids were an important step in paving the way for the siege to come. It was apparent to townsfolk that something major was about to happen in the area.

By the end of June, Grant had established a number of supply depots along the James and Appomattox Rivers. The most important and largest was the sprawling City Point complex at the confluence of the two rivers. Broadway Landing was chosen as a site for a second supply depot because of the depth of the water there and its central position between City Point, Bermuda Hundred, and Petersburg. The depot was established on June 25 in the lower part of the town along the Appomattox River. One or two divisions (mostly Ohio national guardsmen and Connecticut Heavy Artillery) were permanently stationed at the depot, but many others moved through it at different points of the siege, including the 138th Ohio and the 4th New York. The most important regiment stationed at the depot was the 1st Connecticut Heavy Artillery, a division with a great deal of distinguished combat experience. Divisional headquarters was established at Broadway Landing, and Colonel Henry L. Abbot was appointed commander.

Under Abbot’s watch, Broadway Landing would become a fully operational supply depot. When the depot was established, there was one wharf at Broadway Landing; eventually there would be three. There was also a laboratory on one of the wharves for combining artillery shells and gunpowder. This laboratory is shown in a number of Civil War era photographs of the landing, including one by the most famous Civil War photographer, Matthew Brady. Brady’s photograph, labeled “The Ordnance at the Depot,” shows a couple of buildings, along with guns, boats, wharves, and a pontoon bridge. Guns and shells of every kind passed through Broadway Landing on their way to the front, from Coehorn mortars to the 30-pound Parrot guns. The photo displays how extensive the weaponry was. Some 1,200 tons of ammunition passed through Broadway Landing in the month of July alone.

The Many Uses of Broadway Landing

Although not as big a contributor of arms as City Point, Broadway Landing did have one major accomplishment to show for its time—many of the materials used in the Battle of the Crater on July 30 passed through the town, including the explosives used to blast the famous hole beneath the Confederate line. Maj. Gen. Philip Sheridan, better known for his raids in the Shenandoah, created a diversionary raid to distract the Confederates from the Crater preparations massing at Broadway Landing. In all, the town served as an excellent supply depot, with goods being transported from the landing to almost any point on the various battlefields. From Bermuda Hundred to Five Forks, Union troops could take solace in the fact that they had a smooth-running supply depot behind them at Broadway Landing.

Although its major function was as a supply center, Broadway Landing also served as a transportation center. With 50 wagons sending supplies all over the area at any one time, it was the place to go when someone needed to hitch a ride. The wagons were laid next to the wharves on the riverbank for both supply and transportation use. Broadway Landing’s most important transportation application, however, came from its pontoon bridge across the Appomattox River, which was for a time the sole Union crossing point on the river. Another pontoon bridge just upstream was built on September 19. As proof of the proficiency of Abbot’s Union engineers, the bridge was built with 23 boats in one hour and 15 minutes. Although Abbot had warned his superiors about repairing the bridge frequently, it soon broke down when an excessively heavy cannon was brought across. After the bridge was fixed, Broadway ran smoothly as a transportation artery. Remains of the bridge pilings still dot the Appomattox River.

Broadway Landing also served as the center of communication lines (it had a telegraph depot that connected Butler’s troops in Bermuda Hundred with City Point and the western battlefields). No major battles took place at the landing, but skirmishes were all around. At Port Walthall, Baylor’s Farm, and a number of other places in the area, shots were exchanged and men killed. By the end of July 1864, 32 men had been killed and 107 wounded in the areas surrounding Broadway Landing. Even with all the nearby carnage, Broadway Landing had one more challenge—protecting the Appomattox River. Grant had already laid mines in the river, but they were not enough to stop crafty Confederate ironclad commanders, whose attacks became increasingly frequent along the James and Appomattox as the South’s military condition became dire. The final act of desperation came on January 30, 1865, when a Rebel ironclad advanced as far as Broadway Landing before it was forced back by a hail of gunfire from Union gunboats. This was the last major Confederate attempt to infiltrate Petersburg.

The Town Disappears

Although Broadway Landing had done its job admirably, its usefulness was coming to an end. The siege depots of the Union Army had exploited the enormous advantage the Union had in supplies, and the Confederate defenders inside Petersburg were wearing down. Finally, after 10 months of hard fighting, Union soldiers broke through and took the town. On the same day that Richmond was captured by the Union troops, April 2, 1865, the siege depot at Broadway Landing ended its operation. Because the siege was over, the landing was no longer needed. The troops soon cleared out, with the last soldiers leaving on May 1 for Drewry’s Bluff. As his last act as commander of the Landing, Abbot asked Grant to keep the pontoon bridge at the landing for the townsfolk to use. Grant refused, and an 1866 map of the area shows the town and surrounding area with no surviving pontoon bridges.

With the end of the war came the end of an era. The town welcomed back it long-lost citizens, but returning residents found Broadway Landing much changed from its use as a supply depot. The pontoon bridge was gone, and the church that had made Broadway Landing a major center of Prince George County was never mentioned again by any source. The town persevered into the 20th century, ceasing to exist by 1935. Today, the remains of Broadway Landing lie beneath what is now Atwater Road, on the far west of the present-day city of Hopewell.

This article originally appeared on the Warfare History Network.

Image: Wikimedia

The National Interest

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