Qaecologist Posts http://feed.informer.com/digests/T57DVXB9YH/feeder Qaecologist Posts Respective post owners and feed distributors Mon, 15 Feb 2016 08:40:04 +0000 Feed Informer http://feed.informer.com/ When does research help environmental management? https://mickresearch.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/when-does-research-help-environmental-management/ Michael McCarthy's Research urn:uuid:90214e2a-eaa7-2da9-a0d3-ab6e697a4f8f Thu, 02 Feb 2017 05:36:12 +0000 Think of the case where a manager needs to decide which action to take to stop a species  declining, or to eradicate a pest, or to increase sustainable harvest levels. It is rare in environmental management to know, with certainty, &#8230; <a href="https://mickresearch.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/when-does-research-help-environmental-management/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=mickresearch.wordpress.com&#038;blog=25789184&#038;post=2649&#038;subd=mickresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <p>Think of the case where a manager needs to decide which action to take to stop a species  declining, or to eradicate a pest, or to increase sustainable harvest levels. It is rare in environmental management to know, with certainty, which action to take.</p> <p>In response to such uncertainty, a scientist might recommend that the manager should trial different management actions, and use the results of that trial to decide on the best course of action. Such trials can certainly improve subsequent management.</p> <p>But research costs money &#8211; money that might have been better put toward management. Further, even trialling two options means that, almost inevitably, one of the trialled actions will be inferior to the other. So opportunity costs are likely to exist in almost any trial, even if the research itself were cheap.</p> <p>The trade-off between learning and doing lies at the heart of adaptive management. My <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1515" target="_blank">recent paper led by Alana Moore</a> addresses this trade-off, using the simplest formulation of the problem that we could muster. In that case we only considered resolving a choice between two management options. Our hope was to gain greater insight into the question of the circumstances in which research assists environmental management.</p> <p>The answers surprised us in several instances. One surprise was the threshold behaviour that existed in many parameters. For example, as the expected difference in performance of the two management options increases, the optimal effort to spend on experimentation increases, but only up to a point. Once the threshold difference in performance is sufficiently large, the optimal level of experimentation declines to zero.</p> <p>This threshold makes some intuitive sense; once we are relatively sure of the difference in performance, then we shouldn’t bother with an experiment to evaluate that. However, prior to reaching that threshold, the optimal effort to spend on the experiment increases with the expected difference in performance; that is somewhat counter intuitive. Other thresholds also exist.</p> <p>Another surprise is that circumstances in which the investment in management trials is greatest do not necessarily correspond to the circumstances in which the benefit of trials is the greatest. Cases exist when relatively modest investment in trials can lead to large expected management gains. And counter-cases exist in which large investments in trialling options is the best thing to do, but the benefits of those trials are quite small.</p> <p>I love this sort of modelling &#8211; simple models leading to somewhat counter-intuitive insights. You can read about them more in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1515" target="_blank">the paper</a>, or in a <a href="https://mickresearch.wordpress.com/2016/07/05/simple-adaptive-management/" target="_blank">previous blog post</a> I wrote regarding a talk I did on this topic.</p> <p>The paper is:</p> <p>Moore, A. L., Walker, L., Runge, M. C., McDonald-Madden, E. and McCarthy, M. A. (2017). Two-step Adaptive Management for choosing between two management actions. <em>Ecological Application</em>s. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1515" target="_blank">doi:10.1002/eap.1515</a></p><br /> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/mickresearch.wordpress.com/2649/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/mickresearch.wordpress.com/2649/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=mickresearch.wordpress.com&#038;blog=25789184&#038;post=2649&#038;subd=mickresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> Fun Times at the BES Annual Meeting 2016 https://janecatford.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/fun-times-at-the-bes-annual-meeting-2016/ Jane Catford's Research urn:uuid:207a656d-feb3-fcb9-92db-1c59c717f3ac Thu, 12 Jan 2017 14:33:23 +0000 Originally posted on <a href="https://jecologyblog.wordpress.com/2016/12/15/bes2016">Journal of Ecology blog</a>: <br />The BES meeting 2016 in Liverpool is now over and what a great meeting it was. Don&#8217;t worry: if you could not make it this year, you can hear all about it in the new&#8230;<img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=janecatford.wordpress.com&#038;blog=25633722&#038;post=1032&#038;subd=janecatford&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <div class="wpcom-reblog-snapshot"> <div class="reblog-post"><p class="reblog-from"><img alt='' src='https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/6cd149a9b52bdda6a0b3bf7bf134ac01?s=32&#038;d=identicon&#038;r=G' class='avatar avatar-32' height='32' width='32' /><a href="https://jecologyblog.wordpress.com/2016/12/15/bes2016">Journal of Ecology blog</a></p><div class="reblogged-content"> <p><span style="color:#000000;">The <a style="color:#000000;" href="http://britishecologicalsociety.org/events/annual-event-2016/">BES meeting 2016</a> in Liverpool is now over and what a great meeting it was. Don’t worry: if you could not make it this year, you can hear all about it in the new blog post below from <a style="color:#000000;" href="https://jecologyblog.wordpress.com/2016/09/27/welcome-to-our-new-associate-editors/">Jane Catford</a>, our new Associate Editor. Jane kindly accepted to share her thoughts with you on the best moments of the meeting.</span></p> <p><strong><span style="color:#000000;">Pierre Mariotte</span></strong><br><strong><span style="color:#000000;">Blog Editor, <em>Journal of Ecology</em></span></strong></p> <hr> <span style="color:#000000;">My first time in the home of The Beatles, my first time dodging owls at a poster session, and my first time being serenaded by a rotund frog in a bar. Clearly this was my first <a style="color:#000000;" href="http://www.britishecologicalsociety.org/events/annual-event-2016/">BES meeting</a>, and – safe to say – it did not disappoint.</span> <p><span style="color:#000000;">I’ve heard a lot about the BES meetings from colleagues all over the world. Being field season in Australia (my home until five months ago), I’ve never actually made it to one of these meetings before…</span></p> </div><p class="reblog-source"><a href="https://jecologyblog.wordpress.com/2016/12/15/bes2016">View original post</a> <span class="more-words">957 more words</span></p></div></div><br /> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/janecatford.wordpress.com/1032/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/janecatford.wordpress.com/1032/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=janecatford.wordpress.com&#038;blog=25633722&#038;post=1032&#038;subd=janecatford&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> New paper – After the epidemic: ongoing declines, stabilisations and recoveries in chytridiomycosis impacted amphibians https://gwheardresearch.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/new-paper-after-the-epidemic-ongoing-declines-stabilisations-and-recoveries-in-chytridiomycosis-impacted-amphibians/ Geoff Heard's Research urn:uuid:0af0e686-3af9-98bc-08cc-2e1cb5577ba1 Tue, 10 Jan 2017 00:10:53 +0000 We humans live in perpetual fear of epidemics. Some nasty new bug emerging from the jungle, sweeping across humanity and knocking off millions of us in the process. Or perhaps an existing pathogen that mutates into a superbug capable of spreading like wildfire, transmitted by as little as a dirty look. While sometimes bordering on [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=gwheardresearch.wordpress.com&#038;blog=25841594&#038;post=1309&#038;subd=gwheardresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <p><img data-attachment-id="1354" data-permalink="https://gwheardresearch.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/new-paper-after-the-epidemic-ongoing-declines-stabilisations-and-recoveries-in-chytridiomycosis-impacted-amphibians/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus/#main" data-orig-file="https://gwheardresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus.jpg?w=178&#038;h=143" data-orig-size="2657,2132" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://gwheardresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus.jpg?w=178&#038;h=143?w=300" data-large-file="https://gwheardresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus.jpg?w=178&#038;h=143?w=869" class=" wp-image-1354 alignleft" src="https://gwheardresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus.jpg?w=178&#038;h=143" alt="csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus" width="178" height="143" srcset="https://gwheardresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus.jpg?w=178&amp;h=143 178w, https://gwheardresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus.jpg?w=356&amp;h=286 356w, https://gwheardresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus.jpg?w=150&amp;h=120 150w, https://gwheardresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/csiro_scienceimage_1392_scanning_electron_micrograph_of_chytrid_fungus.jpg?w=300&amp;h=241 300w" sizes="(max-width: 178px) 100vw, 178px" />We humans live in perpetual fear of epidemics. Some nasty new bug emerging from the jungle, sweeping across humanity and knocking off millions of us in the process. Or perhaps an existing pathogen that mutates into a superbug capable of spreading like wildfire, transmitted by as little as a dirty look.</p> <p>While sometimes bordering on irrational (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_Z_(film)#Plot">cheers Hollywood</a>), our fear of epidemics is well placed. We’ve had some doozies in the not too distant past. Take <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic">Spanish Flu</a> – a disease that killed somewhere between 50 and 100 million people between 1918 and 1920, reducing the world population by up to 5%. Furthermore, our spine-bearing brethren give us regular reminders of the ruinous power of pathogens. Examples include <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White-nose_syndrome">white-nose syndrome in bats</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_malaria">avian malaria</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Squirrel_parapoxvirus">Parapoxvirus in squirrels</a> and the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-30/mass-deaths-antelopes-kazakhstan-stir-conservation-fears/6509162">recent implosion of Saiga populations</a> on the Eurasian steppe.</p> <p>In the wildlife realm however, one disease stands head-and-shoulders above the rest as a potent reminder of the destructive capacity of pathogens. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chytridiomycosis">Chytridiomycosis</a>, caused by the fungus <em>Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis</em>, has killed literally millions of frogs across the globe over the last four decades, driving thousands of populations to local extinction and causing the decline or extinction of up to 200 species. A truly remarkable feat for a single pathogen. In Australia, chytrid hit in the late 1970’s, arriving first (we believe) in Brisbane, before heading north and south along the east coast, and skipping across to Western Australia and Tasmania. It left carnage in its wake. Frogs that were formally abundant and readily found simply disappeared. Apart from a few observed die-offs, numerous populations went up in a figurative puff of smoke, taking seven species to their doom.</p> <p>Our <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320716310126">most recent paper</a> reviews what happened next. Led by the inimitable <a href="http://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/about-us/people/benjamin-scheele">Dr Ben Scheele</a>, the paper draws together published and unpublished data to review the fate of Australian frogs impacted by chytridiomycosis following the initial epidemic. We detail the varying responses of these species, ranging from ongoing decline, to stabilisation and even recovery. Furthermore, the review draws together the known mechanisms underpinning these responses, which Australian and international herpetologists have steadily revealed over the last two decades.</p> <p>The news is mixed. Chytridiomycosis remains the chief threat to several highly endangered frogs in Australia, such as the <a href="http://www.corroboreefrog.org.au/">Southern Corroboree Frog</a> and <a href="http://www.zoo.org.au/melbourne/animals/baw-baw-frog">Baw Baw Frog</a>, both of which may soon no longer persist in the wild. However, others have stabilised and some have even clawed back formerly occupied territory. Encouragingly, the latter may be on-route to recovery. The review also highlights that we now know enough to trial management options for some species. For example, it may be possible to target reintroduction efforts to habitats with few <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12830/abstract">reservoir hosts of chytrid</a>, or we may be able to manipulate the environment in ways that gives susceptible frogs an epidemiological or demographic edge over the fungus (a topic on which <a href="https://gwheardresearch.wordpress.com/2015/06/25/new-paper-refugia-and-connectivity-sustain-amphibian-metapopulations-afflicted-by-disease/">my own research</a> has focused in recent years).</p> <p>With that, I commend the paper to you. As always, if you’d like to read the paper but can’t get through the paywall, drop me an <a href="mailto:heardg@unimelb.edu.au">email</a> and I’ll send it through.</p><br />Filed under: <a href='https://gwheardresearch.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/'>Uncategorized</a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/gwheardresearch.wordpress.com/1309/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/gwheardresearch.wordpress.com/1309/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=gwheardresearch.wordpress.com&#038;blog=25841594&#038;post=1309&#038;subd=gwheardresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> 2016 travel retrospective https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/ Cindy E Hauser urn:uuid:811557ee-e061-5827-fb44-9fa3e5cfe815 Tue, 03 Jan 2017 04:44:18 +0000 I spent one-third of 2016 outside of Melbourne! Much of my travel was motivated by my work. Though I had lofty goals of blogging on the go, I didn&#8217;t progress beyond a single draft post. But once December rolled round I shared a slideshow of travel highlights with the QAECO lab &#8211; here&#8217;s a few &#8230; <a class="more-link" href="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/">More <span class="screen-reader-text">2016 travel retrospective</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=cindyehauser.wordpress.com&#038;blog=34509439&#038;post=1271&#038;subd=cindyehauser&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <p>I spent one-third of 2016 outside of Melbourne! Much of my travel was motivated by my work. Though I had lofty goals of blogging on the go, I didn&#8217;t progress beyond a single draft post. But once December rolled round I shared a slideshow of travel highlights with the <a href="https://qaeco.com/">QAECO</a> lab &#8211; here&#8217;s a few annotated pics.</p> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1574" style="width: 2000px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1574" data-permalink="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/seattle/" data-orig-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="2000,2000" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="seattle" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1574" src="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=748" alt="seattle" srcset="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=748 748w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=150 150w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=300 300w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=768 768w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/seattle.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">In June I visited Seattle for <a href="http://depts.washington.edu/uwconf/wordpress/isec2016/">ISEC</a>. QAEcologists <a href="https://pelentiniresearch.wordpress.com/">Pia</a> &amp; <a href="https://twitter.com/_NickGolding_/">Nick</a> also attended, and we even got to catch up with QAECO alumnus <a href="http://fw.oregonstate.edu/content/kimberley-millers">Kim Millers</a>! I took training in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/14-0661.1/abstract">Bayesian model selection</a> and <a href="https://r-nimble.org/">R-NIMBLE</a>, then attended just about every <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Markov_model">HMM</a> session I could.</figcaption></figure> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1290" style="width: 1702px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1290" data-permalink="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/baseball/" data-orig-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="1702,630" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Baseball" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1290" src="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=748" alt="Baseball" srcset="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=748 748w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=150 150w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=300 300w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=768 768w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/baseball.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">In the evening, we found time for baseball. <a href="http://www.iadine-chades.org/blog/">Iadine Chadès</a> was on hand to guide Pia, Kim &amp; I through the rules.</figcaption></figure> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1595" style="width: 4000px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1595" data-permalink="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/img_6421_colour/" data-orig-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="4000,3000" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;4&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon PowerShot SX40 HS&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1467685888&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;4.3&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;200&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.0025&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="img_6421_colour" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1595" src="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=748" alt="img_6421_colour" srcset="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=748 748w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=150 150w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=300 300w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=768 768w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_6421_colour.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">I flew east in time to observe the 4th of July in Washington DC. I spent a couple of days at Patuxent Wildlife Research Center catching up with adaptive management mavens <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/sarah-j-converse">Sarah Converse</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/michael-runge">Mike Runge</a>. I made a new friend at <a href="http://www.rff.org/">Resources for the Future</a> in <a href="http://www.rff.org/people/profile/rebecca-epanchin-niell">Becky Epanchin-Niell</a> &#8211; we have abundant common research interests and I hope we&#8217;ll get to collaborate soon.</figcaption></figure> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1608" style="width: 2000px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1608" data-permalink="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/usdaforest/" data-orig-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="2000,2000" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="usdaforest" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1608" src="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=748" alt="usdaforest" srcset="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=748 748w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=150 150w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=300 300w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=768 768w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usdaforest.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">From DC, I took a bus and a small leap of faith in visiting another stanger. <a href="https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/people/aliebhold">Sandy Liebhold</a> is based at the <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/">US Forest Service</a> in Morgantown WV and a partner investigator on the ARC Discovery Project I&#8217;m part of. He&#8217;s a forest entomologist, enthusiastic natural historian and generous host. It was great to get to know him and the <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/ne/morgantown/4557/gmoth/">gypsy moth program</a> better. I was also unexpectedly smitten with the local culinary curiosity, <a href="http://risingcreekbakery.com/">salt rising bread</a>.</figcaption></figure> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1616" style="width: 5312px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1616" data-permalink="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/20160718_082146/" data-orig-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="5312,2988" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;2.2&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;SM-G900I&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1468830106&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;4.8&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;50&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.00091575091575092&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="20160718_082146" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1616" src="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=748" alt="20160718_082146" srcset="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=748 748w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=150 150w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=300 300w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=768 768w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20160718_082146.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">Sandy invited me to stick around a further week to attend the <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/iufroinvasions2016/">IUFRO Workshop on Forest Invasions</a>. It was a diverse mix of invasion and management science, policy and social science from across Europe, Africa, the Americas, Asia &amp; Oceania. I learned a lot!</figcaption></figure> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1634" style="width: 2000px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1634" data-permalink="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/fukuoka/" data-orig-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="2000,2000" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="fukuoka" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1634" src="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=748" alt="fukuoka" srcset="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=748 748w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=150 150w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=300 300w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=768 768w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/fukuoka.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">In September I was a guest at <a href="https://www.kyushu-u.ac.jp/en/">Kyushu University</a> in Fukuoka, Japan. I was hosted by the wonderful <a href="http://bio-math10.biology.kyushu-u.ac.jp/english/member/researcher.html">Joung Hun Lee</a> (who <a href="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2015/04/15/environmental-modelling-symposium-university-of-tokyo/">I first met at the University of Tokyo</a>), and also benefited from an hour with the agile mind of <a href="http://bio-math10.biology.kyushu-u.ac.jp/~iwasa/index-e.html">Yoh Iwasa</a>. I gave three presentations around the Japanese Society of Mathematical Biology conference and relished the abundant equations.</figcaption></figure> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1648" style="width: 2000px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1648" data-permalink="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/awc16/" data-orig-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="2000,2000" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="awc16" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1648" src="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=748" alt="awc16" srcset="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=748 748w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=150 150w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=300 300w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=768 768w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/awc16.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">From Japan I flew to Perth for the Australasian Weeds Conference, which <a href="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2016/11/01/weed-conference-proceedings-online/">I wrote a bit about previously</a>. I <a href="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/australasian-weeds-conference-melbourne/">always</a> appreciate the pragmatism of the work shared at this conference. I also spared a day to visit weed modeller <a href="http://www.web.uwa.edu.au/people/michael.renton">Michael Renton</a> over at UWA.</figcaption></figure> <p>Travel is one of the great privileges of my job! In 2016 it exposed me to such a diversity of ecosystems, management challenges and research approaches. In 2017 I&#8217;m expecting to stay a little closer to home, transferring these insights to my own work.</p> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1668" style="width: 4608px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1668" data-permalink="https://cindyehauser.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/2016-travel-retrospective/img_3545/" data-orig-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="4608,3456" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;3.4&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon PowerShot SX60 HS&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1474212028&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;3.8&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;200&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.001&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="img_3545" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1668" src="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=748" alt="img_3545" srcset="https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=748 748w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=150 150w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=300 300w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=768 768w, https://cindyehauser.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/img_3545.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">The last friend I made while travelling &#8211; a quokka on Rottnest Island.</figcaption></figure><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=cindyehauser.wordpress.com&#038;blog=34509439&#038;post=1271&#038;subd=cindyehauser&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> The Spatial Solutions Fire Ecology Project https://ltkellyresearch.com/2016/12/14/the-spatial-solutions-fire-ecology-project/ Luke Kelly's Research urn:uuid:f584a794-05c4-cfb2-fcc4-0b24e0b97843 Wed, 14 Dec 2016 10:39:11 +0000 Our new fire ecology project is underway! Now that we’ve assembled our exciting team – including new recruits Dr Kate Giljohann (Research Fellow), Fred Rainsford (PhD student) and Kate Senior (PhD student) – it’s a perfect time to introduce the &#8230; <a href="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2016/12/14/the-spatial-solutions-fire-ecology-project/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=ltkellyresearch.com&#038;blog=25365152&#038;post=286&#038;subd=ltkellyresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <p>Our new fire ecology project is underway!</p> <p>Now that we’ve assembled our exciting team – including new recruits Dr Kate Giljohann (Research Fellow), Fred Rainsford (PhD student) and Kate Senior (PhD student) – it’s a perfect time to introduce the project.</p> <p><strong>The Team: </strong>Luke Kelly (UoM), Andrew Bennett (La Trobe/ARI), Andrew Blackett (DELWP), Michael Clarke (La Trobe), Kate Giljohann (UoM/La Trobe), Michael McCarthy (UoM), Fred Rainsford (La Trobe), Kate Senior (UoM).</p> <p><strong>What are we going to do?</strong></p> <p>The Spatial Solutions Fire Ecology Project is a collaboration between The University of Melbourne, La Trobe University and the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning. It’s funded by the ARC Linkage Projects scheme. The primary aim of this project is to develop a suite of spatially explicit models and tools that will enhance our capacity to design fire management strategies for biodiversity in real-world landscapes.</p> <p>This project will use two ecosystems from south-eastern Australia as case studies: ‘mallee’ woodlands and shrublands and ‘foothill’ forests. These extensive eucalypt-dominated ecosystems make up ≈104 000 km<sup>2</sup> and ≈75 000 km<sup>2</sup> of south-eastern Australia, respectively. Fire is a major driver of the structure and function of mallee and foothills ecosystems and the strong history of fire research in each region provides a wealth of data on the plants, birds, reptiles and mammals.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_294" style="width: 3274px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="294" data-permalink="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2016/12/14/the-spatial-solutions-fire-ecology-project/foothill-landscape/" data-orig-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=640" data-orig-size="3264,2448" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;2.2&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;iPhone 5s&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1421420842&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;4.12&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;32&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.00043802014892685&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="foothill-landscape" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-294" src="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=640" alt="foothill-landscape" srcset="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=640 640w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=1280 1280w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=150 150w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=300 300w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=768 768w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/foothill-landscape.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Foothill forests are characterised by rough-barked eucalypts including messmate, brown stringybark, narrow- and broad-leaved peppermint.</p></div> <p>Specifically, we will build spatially explicit models of bird, mammal, plant and reptile responses to fire regimes in mallee and foothills landscapes. We’ll predict how biodiversity will change under different scenarios of prescribed burning and wildfire, while taking into account uncertainty relating to climate and other factors. This will involve linking ecological models, biodiversity indices, fire simulations and decision tools for better fire management.</p> <p>The approach we develop, and the predictive models and decision tools, will enable land managers to link spatial fire data with distributional knowledge of plant and animal species to answer questions such as “what will the immediate effects on biodiversity be if a 100,000 ha bushfire occurs in a National Park?” and “how much and where should planned burning be done to maximise biodiversity in flammable landscapes?”.</p> <p>Some of our recent work on linking species distribution models, biodiversity indices and decision-making tools provides the basis for this approach (McCarthy et al. 2014; Giljohann et al. 2015; Kelly et al. 2015). In collaboration with DELWP, we will extend this approach so that it can be applied to complex, real-world landscapes.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_297" style="width: 4010px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="297" data-permalink="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2016/12/14/the-spatial-solutions-fire-ecology-project/mallee-recent/" data-orig-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=640" data-orig-size="4000,3000" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;3.2&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon PowerShot G9&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1414009747&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;7.4&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;80&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.016666666666667&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="mallee-recent" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-297" src="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=640" alt="mallee-recent" srcset="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=640 640w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=1280 1280w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=150 150w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=300 300w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=768 768w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/mallee-recent.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">A post-fire landscape in mallee woodlands and shrublands, northern Victoria.</p></div> <p><strong>How can you get involved?</strong></p> <p>In 2017, we&#8217;ll be on the lookout for volunteers to help us with new field studies of birds, mammals and plants in these fire-prone ecosystems.</p> <p>In 2017 and 2018, we’ll be running workshops with land managers to develop and model scenarios of how planned and unplanned fires influence plants and animals.</p> <p><em>For more information contact me at ltkelly@unimelb.edu.au</em></p> <p><strong> </strong><strong>Some of our recent papers on fire and biodiversity indices</strong></p> <p>Giljohann, KM., et al. (2015) <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/14-0257.1/abstract">Choice of biodiversity index drives optimal fire management decisions <em>Ecological Applications</em></a>. <strong>25</strong>: 264-277.</p> <p>Kelly, LT., et al. (2015) <a title="Kelly_et_al-2015-Conservation_Biology" href="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/kelly_et_al-2015-conservation_biology.pdf">Optimal fire histories for biodiversity conservation</a> <em>Conservation Biology</em>. <strong>29</strong>: 473-481.</p> <p>McCarthy, MA et al. (2014) <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12308/abstract">Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory </a> <em>Conservation Biology </em><strong>28: </strong>1575-1583.</p><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=ltkellyresearch.com&#038;blog=25365152&#038;post=286&#038;subd=ltkellyresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />