Qaecologist Posts http://feed.informer.com/digests/T57DVXB9YH/feeder Qaecologist Posts Respective post owners and feed distributors Mon, 15 Feb 2016 08:40:04 +0000 Feed Informer http://feed.informer.com/ Assessing risks to marine ecosystems with the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems https://lucieblandresearch.wordpress.com/2018/09/04/assessing-risks-to-marine-ecosystems-with-the-iucn-red-list-of-ecosystems/ Lucie Bland's Research urn:uuid:a1298b67-bce4-76f8-2ca6-f5b608cf8175 Tue, 04 Sep 2018 00:28:27 +0000 You can read this article Open Source until the 21st of October 2018 here: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1Xf4V_9CgQJaj The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems has made some great strides over the last few years, with over 1,500 ecosystems assessed in 90 countries. However, the application of the protocol to offshore marine ecosystems has been lacking. To date, only &#8230; <a class="more-link" href="https://lucieblandresearch.wordpress.com/2018/09/04/assessing-risks-to-marine-ecosystems-with-the-iucn-red-list-of-ecosystems/">More <span class="screen-reader-text">Assessing risks to marine ecosystems with the IUCN Red List of&#160;Ecosystems</span></a> <p><strong>You can read this article Open Source until the 21<sup>st</sup> of October 2018 here: <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1Xf4V_9CgQJaj">https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1Xf4V_9CgQJaj</a> </strong></p> <p>The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems has made some great strides over the last few years, with over 1,500 ecosystems assessed in 90 countries. However, the application of the protocol to offshore marine ecosystems has been lacking. To date, only 10% of ecosystems listed on the global Red List belong to the marine realm, and these are mostly coral reefs and coastal ecosystems. Yet current evidence shows that offshore marine ecosystems are at considerable risk from regime shifts, mostly due to fishing and environmental change.</p> <p>It can be difficult to assess risks to marine ecosystems because unlike most terrestrial ecosystems, we cannot simply map their distributions and call it a risk assessment (oh no! a car park has replaced my favourite forest!). We need to look at the functioning of the ecosystem – the different species that inhabit it and how they relate to each other in the food web.</p> <p>Time series data also tend to be less available for marine ecosystems – yes, we have catch data but most often, these data do not truly represent underlying trends in the ecosystem. Long time-series data are particularly important for the ocean due to the <em>shifting baseline syndrome</em> (i.e. a generational skewing in what is perceived as ‘normal’). Marine ecosystems have been modified for hundreds of years, with little trace of what actually happened.</p> <p>I had many challenges to tackle to apply the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems to an offshore marine ecosystem. In 2016, I formed a collaboration with Lynne Shannon and Kate Watermeyer at the University of Cape Town in South Africa (Kate is now a postdoc with us at Deakin). I had read about the southern Benguela – the large ecosystem lining the west and southern coasts of South Africa – and found the case study fascinating.</p> <p>First, the southern Benguela is only one of two similar ecosystems around the African coast. The northern Benguela, located in Namibia, was a very similar upwelling ecosystem until it underwent a regime shift in the 1970s, most likely due to the combined effects of environmental change and fishing. Despite more conservative fisheries management in Namibia, the regime shift has not been reversed to date.</p> <p>The diagram below illustrates some of the changes that occurred in the northern Benguela in the 1970s. First, populations of forage fish (sardines and anchovies) decreased dramatically, leading to a decrease in their predators such as seabirds and Cape fur seals. The forage fish were replaced by pelagic gobies and jellyfish, which aren’t so much to the taste of the predators.</p> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_314" style="width: 4986px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="314" data-permalink="https://lucieblandresearch.wordpress.com/2018/09/04/assessing-risks-to-marine-ecosystems-with-the-iucn-red-list-of-ecosystems/rect848/" data-orig-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=748" data-orig-size="4986,1922" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="rect848" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-314" src="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=748" alt="rect848" srcset="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=748 748w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=1494 1494w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=150 150w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=300 300w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=768 768w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/rect848.png?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">Changes in the northern Benguela before and after collapse. Figure from Roux et al. (2013). Jellyfication of marine ecosystems as a likely consequence of overfishing small pelagic fishes: lessons from the Benguela. Bulletin of Marine Science, 89(1), 249-284.</figcaption></figure> <p>Knowing what happened to the northern Benguela was key to defining collapse for the southern Benguela. Luckily, Kate had created food web models of both the northern and southern Benguela during her Master&#8217;s degree. The models went far back in time to the 1600s and combined with the extensive knowledge of the current functioning of the southern Benguela formed by Lynne and her group, we had a strong basis for a risk assessment.</p> <p>We pulled everything together: the results from the food web models from 1900 to the present, the time series from surveys, and the catch data. But we were still missing these precious <em>collapse thresholds </em>that enable us to say that an indicator (and thereby an ecosystem) has gone past the state of collapse.</p> <p>To derive the collapse thresholds, we did something that hadn’t been done yet in ecosystem Red Listing: structured expert elicitation. Up to know, collapse thresholds in indicators were often derived from one expert or one study to conduct a Red List assessment (e.g. a coral cover &lt;1% indicates that a coral reef is collapsed). But this wasn’t going to be good enough for an ecosystem as complex as the southern Benguela, with more than 20 indicators to be evaluated.</p> <p>We presented our experts with our definition of what collapse would look like in the southern Benguela (e.g. loss of different functional groups) and asked them to derive collapse thresholds based on data for the southern Benguela and the northern Benguela (pre- and post-collapse). Using the “Investigate, Discuss, Estimate, and Aggregate” method recently published by Hemming et al. (2018), we obtained collapse thresholds and uncertainty bounds for each indicator.</p> <p>Here are some of the main results from our study, looking at indicator change over different timeframes. First, we can see that the percent decline toward collapse (i.e. relative severity) for different indicators tends to be worse over historical timeframes (i.e. 1900 to 1960 or 1900 to 2015). In the last 50 years, many trophic groups have increased or shown signs of recovery. But in the bottom right corner, we can see that seabird biomass has decreased by 66-86% over different time frames (the error bars represent uncertainty in our collapse thresholds).</p> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_317" style="width: 2125px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="317" data-permalink="https://lucieblandresearch.wordpress.com/2018/09/04/assessing-risks-to-marine-ecosystems-with-the-iucn-red-list-of-ecosystems/relsevs/" data-orig-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="2125,1714" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="relsevs" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-317" src="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=748" alt="relsevs" srcset="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=748 748w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=150 150w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=300 300w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=768 768w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/relsevs.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">Red boxes represent the Critically Endangered category; orange boxes the Endangered category; and yellow boxes the Vulnerable category. MTL: mean trophic level.</figcaption></figure> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Despite good trends in many indicators, many of the seabird species in the southern Benguela have decreased dramatically due to threats in both in the ocean (e.g. lack of food) and on land (e.g. threats to nesting areas). Seabirds are recognized as good indicators of marine ecosystem health globally as they closely respond to food availability. Our study suggests that focusing on sensitive predator species may be useful for Red List of Ecosystems assessments for marine ecosystems.</p> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_316" style="width: 1550px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="316" data-permalink="https://lucieblandresearch.wordpress.com/2018/09/04/assessing-risks-to-marine-ecosystems-with-the-iucn-red-list-of-ecosystems/african-penguin-1550x804/" data-orig-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="1550,804" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="african-penguin-1550&#215;804" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-316" src="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=748" alt="african-penguin-1550x804" srcset="https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=748 748w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=1496 1496w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=150 150w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=300 300w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=768 768w, https://lucieblandresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/african-penguin-1550x804.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">The African penguin is also listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, indicating some congruence between the results of the two Red lists.</figcaption></figure> <p>Overall, we listed the southern Benguela as Endangered in both 2015 and 1960 (we did a retrospective assessment based on our historical data). However, this over-arching assessment hides subtle changes in different indicators and ecosystem functioning: many trophic groups are now healthier than in the 1960s and fishing has generally reduced, but the dismal state of seabirds skews the assessment towards a threatened category.</p> <p>Our study shows that it is possible to assess risks to marine ecosystems: we need a strong definition of collapse, which can be based on other similar systems; good time series data, from either models or surveys; and ecosystem experts that can bring all this knowledge together into a sound, repeatable risk assessment.</p> <p><strong>You can read this article Open Source until the 21<sup>st</sup> of October 2018 here: <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1Xf4V_9CgQJaj">https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1Xf4V_9CgQJaj</a> </strong></p> <p><strong>General link:</strong> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000632071731501X#ec0005">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000632071731501X#ec0005</a></p> Integrating Animal and Plant Paradigms to Enhance Fire Ecology https://ltkellyresearch.com/2018/08/13/integrating-animal-and-plant-paradigms-to-enhance-fire-ecology/ Luke Kelly's Research urn:uuid:d00f9c01-d2f3-a3d7-8631-baa6ecb43b25 Mon, 13 Aug 2018 01:46:54 +0000 I’m excited to have a new article on animal and plant ecology in the journal Fire. We call for better integration of animal-based and plant-based approaches in fire ecology (summarised in the figure below). This one was a few years &#8230; <a href="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2018/08/13/integrating-animal-and-plant-paradigms-to-enhance-fire-ecology/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a> <p>I’m excited to have a <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/1/2/29">new article</a> on animal and plant ecology in the journal <em><a href="http://www.mdpi.com/journal/fire">Fire</a></em>.</p> <p>We call for better integration of animal-based and plant-based approaches in fire ecology (summarised in the figure below).</p> <p>This one was a few years in the making but was a lot of fun to write with a team of scientists doing novel research, on a range of taxa, in ecosystems around the world.</p> <p>The paper is open access and you can download the whole thing <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/1/2/29">here</a>.</p> <p><em><strong>Abstract.</strong> Conserving animals and plants in fire-prone landscapes requires evidence of how fires </em><em>affect modified ecosystems. Despite progress on this front, fire ecology is restricted by a dissonance between two dominant paradigms: ‘fire mosaics’ and ‘functional types’. The fire mosaic paradigm focuses on animal responses to fire events and spatial variation, whereas the functional type paradigm focuses on plant responses to recurrent fires and temporal variation. Fire management for biodiversity conservation requires input from each paradigm because animals and plants are interdependent and influenced by spatial and temporal dimensions of fire regimes. We propose that better integration of animal-based and plant-based approaches can be achieved by identifying common metrics that </em><em>describe changes in multiple taxa; linking multiple components of the fire regime with animal and plant data; understanding plant-animal interactions; and incorporating spatial and temporal characteristics of fires into conservation management. Our vision for a more integrated fire ecology could be implemented via a collaborative and global network of research and monitoring sites, where measures of animals and plants are linked to real-time data on fire regimes.</em><img data-attachment-id="504" data-permalink="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2018/08/13/integrating-animal-and-plant-paradigms-to-enhance-fire-ecology/kelly-et-al-figure-1/" data-orig-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=640" data-orig-size="1432,402" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Kelly et al Figure 1" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-504" style="background-color:initial;text-align:center;" src="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=640" alt="Kelly et al Figure 1" srcset="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=640 640w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=1280 1280w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=150 150w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=300 300w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=768 768w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/kelly-et-al-figure-1.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></p> <p><strong>Figure 1.</strong> Fire mosaic and functional type paradigms can be defined by the following characteristics: (i) taxonomic focus (animal-based vs. plant-based); (ii) how they characterize fire regimes (fire events vs. recurrent fires); (iii) the mode of generalization (habitat change vs. life-history traits); and (iv) implications for fire management (spatial mosaics vs. temporal intervals). A more integrated approach would emphasize: multiple taxonomic groups and their interactions (biodiversity); different components of the fire regime acting in concert (fire regimes); comprehensive understanding of mechanisms underpinning biotic associations with fire and interdependency between different taxa (shared mechanisms); and decision-making that considers how both spatial and temporal dimensions of fire regimes influence biodiversity (spatio-temporal management).</p> Decisions on a subtropical island https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/ Michaela Plein's Research urn:uuid:95d1fe1c-d68e-4ba8-8fa6-a57f080246e7 Wed, 25 Jul 2018 22:30:38 +0000 Aloha, Have you ever found yourself at an intersection and you just couldn&#8217;t decide which way to go?  In a perfect world with ample time at hand, you could consider applying a structured decision making approach to find a solution to your problem. A structured decision-making process, which we like to abbreviate SDM*, is a &#8230; <a class="more-link" href="https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/">More <span class="screen-reader-text">Decisions on a subtropical&#160;island</span></a> <p>Aloha,</p> <p>Have you ever found yourself at an intersection and you just couldn&#8217;t decide which way to go?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> <p><img data-attachment-id="1204" data-permalink="https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/banner/" data-orig-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/banner-e1532496161955.png?w=748" data-orig-size="492,230" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="banner" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/banner-e1532496161955.png?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/banner-e1532496161955.png?w=748?w=492" class=" size-full wp-image-1204 aligncenter" src="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/banner-e1532496161955.png?w=748" alt="banner.png" srcset="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/banner-e1532496161955.png 492w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/banner-e1532496161955.png?w=150 150w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/banner-e1532496161955.png?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 492px) 100vw, 492px" /></p> <p>In a perfect world with ample time at hand, you could consider applying a structured decision making approach to find a solution to your problem. A structured decision-making process, which we like to abbreviate SDM*, is a method that helps you weed through the multitude of possibilities in a, well&#8230;structured way. While this method can be used for a variety of problems, may they relate to work-life balance (<a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pc/PC18043">McDonald-Madden 2018</a>), the military (<a href="https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/opre.30.5.803">Keeney 1982</a>) or environmental management (<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cobi.12051">Game et al. 2013</a>). In environmental  management, the approach has been successfully implemented for about 20 years.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> <p>So what is it? SDM approaches a problem by analysing it&#8217;s components separately with the aim of finding solutions that achieve the fundamental objective of everyone that is affected by the decision (the stakeholders). With a set of simple steps, SDM works through a problem from stating the objectives of all stakeholders, finding alternative approaches that meet these objectives, identify the consequences of the alternatives and analysing their trade-offs if the objectives and alternatives compete. Once your problem has gone through this process, also referred to as the PrOACT cycle (see below), you can settle on a decision. Sometimes you might find that you need to go back to one of the earlier steps because you missed something in the first round &#8211; hence the cycle.</p> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1214" style="width: 910px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1214" data-permalink="https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen/" data-orig-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png?w=748" data-orig-size="910,675" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Figure3_LCDReport_2016_darkergreen" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png?w=748?w=748" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1214" src="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png?w=748" alt="Figure3_LCDReport_2016_darkergreen" srcset="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png?w=748 748w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png?w=150 150w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png?w=300 300w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png?w=768 768w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/figure3_lcdreport_2016_darkergreen.png 910w" sizes="(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">The PrOACT cycle</figcaption></figure> <p>While SDM can be applied to any kind of problem, from managing the Great Barrier Reef to booking flights for an overseas trip, it is most useful for complicated problems that are to hard to work out in your head. So really if you just need to know if you need to go left or right at an intersection Google Maps may be able to help you faster. The problems that we work with in Environmental Management, however, are complex and often have multiple objectives. The types of problems are very similar, and really only belong to a few classes (<a href="http://decision-point.com.au/article/navigating-the-field-of-decision-analysis/">Runge and McDonald-Madden 2018</a>), all of which SDM can be used for.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> <p>The School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at UQ offers a master&#8217;s course on SDM approaches (Environmental Problem Solving, ENVM7512 , in case you&#8217;re interested), which is coordinated by Eve McDonald-Madden. <a href="https://www.mcdonaldmaddenlab.com/people">Chris</a> O&#8217;Bryan and I are helping with the practicals in this course and since our exposure to SDM was limited before we started this course, the learning curve was steep for us. But two semesters of teaching, preparing worksheets and getting bombarded with smart questions from the students, have helped to get familiar with the theory of SDM. However, until recently we experienced SDM in real life. Fortunately, the US Fish and Wildlife Service offers interested professionals to participate in their SDM workshops as observers. This year&#8217;s choice was located in Honolulu or Gainsville. I know nothing about Gainsville**, and Chris grew up around there, so we decided to give Hawai&#8217;i a shot.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> <a href='https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/dsc_8554/'><img width="150" height="99" src="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/dsc_8554.jpg?w=150&#038;h=99" class="attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail" alt="" srcset="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/dsc_8554.jpg?w=150&#038;h=99 150w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/dsc_8554.jpg?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" data-attachment-id="1213" data-permalink="https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/dsc_8554/" data-orig-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/dsc_8554.jpg" data-orig-size="1280,848" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;9&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;NIKON D7000&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1528443220&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;48&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;400&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.001&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="DSC_8554" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/dsc_8554.jpg?w=300" data-large-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/dsc_8554.jpg?w=748" /></a> <a href='https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/image2/'><img width="150" height="113" src="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image2.jpg?w=150&#038;h=113" class="attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail" alt="" srcset="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image2.jpg?w=150&#038;h=113 150w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image2.jpg?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" data-attachment-id="1208" data-permalink="https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/image2/" data-orig-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image2.jpg" data-orig-size="640,480" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;2.4&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;iPhone 5&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1528654601&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;4.12&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;50&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.0011806375442739&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="image2" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image2.jpg?w=300" data-large-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image2.jpg?w=640" /></a> <p>The workshop investigates four different decision problems related to Hawai&#8217;i. Each group consisted of 2-3 &#8220;coaches&#8221; that facilitated working through the SDM process and a range of stakeholders, for example biologists from local forest departments or conservation groups etc. There ws also a number of observers that were free to sit in with the groups as they liked to observe the SDM process. While the workshop offered an interesting range of decision problems, from conservation of threatened land snails and waterbirds, to reef protection, and fire management, the observers were mainly interested in the group dynamics.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1209" style="width: 640px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1209" data-permalink="https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/image1/" data-orig-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image1.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="640,480" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;2.4&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;iPhone 5&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1528725653&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;4.12&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;50&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.05&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="image1" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image1.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image1.jpg?w=748?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1209" src="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image1.jpg?w=748" alt="image1" srcset="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image1.jpg 640w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image1.jpg?w=150 150w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image1.jpg?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">Subgroups summarised and presented their progress regularly.</figcaption></figure> <p>While all observers agreed on the usefulness and practicality of the SDM approach, we noted key factors that can greatly influence the process:</p> <ol> <li>Individual&#8217;s personalities (i.e., group members <span style="text-decoration:underline;">and</span> coaches) can shape the way that the SDM process is taking.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></li> <li>Strong personalities can take over the discussions. Therefore, coaches need good facilitation/ mediation skills.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></li> <li>Sometimes even coaches can lose the forest for the trees. Having a team of coaches helps to avoid getting stuck.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></li> <li>When the decision-maker was in the room, they were often either expected to take over the majority of the communication or simply more likely to take on the largest responsibility.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></li> <li>Any decision affects range of stakeholders, to avoid missing or misrepresenting everyones objectives, all stakeholders should be involved in the process.</li> <li>While larger groups often had a broader range of ideas, without smart eliciting of information from the coaches, it would be more likely for a few people to remain more quite or others to overtake the discussion.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></li> <li>Importance of terminology &#8211; a problem in every field, but especially since every workshop will bring together people from different backgrounds, it&#8217;s crucial to explain the terminology before using it.</li> </ol> <p>Chris and I thoroughly enjoyed the experience and we are both thinking about participating in the certification program that NCTC is offering. Applying structured processes for making decisions, could help a lot of decision problems in conservation and environmental management and help to find solutions in a transparent and efficient way and at the same time make most stakeholders happy.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p> <figure data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1207" style="width: 640px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img data-attachment-id="1207" data-permalink="https://michaelaplein.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/decisions-on-a-subtropical-island/image4/" data-orig-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image4.jpg?w=748" data-orig-size="640,480" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;2.4&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;iPhone 5&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1528471345&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;4.12&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;50&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.0021413276231263&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="image4" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image4.jpg?w=748?w=300" data-large-file="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image4.jpg?w=748?w=640" class=" size-full wp-image-1207 aligncenter" src="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image4.jpg?w=748" alt="image4" srcset="https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image4.jpg 640w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image4.jpg?w=150 150w, https://michaelaplein.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/image4.jpg?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">A common impression on O&#8217;ahu &#8211; feral chicken</figcaption></figure> <p>*not to confuse with species distribution models &#8211; in ecology also widely abbreviated in the same way</p> <p>** apart from it being a &#8220;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WGd3hICU6c">Rock City</a>&#8220;</p> Plants, evolutionary adaptation and global change https://ltkellyresearch.com/2018/07/24/plants-evolutionary-adaptation-and-global-change/ Luke Kelly's Research urn:uuid:5e9bcc04-d461-f22f-dc3d-61194edacf4c Tue, 24 Jul 2018 00:05:44 +0000 I’ve recently started a position in the School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne. I’ll be starting new work on plants, evolutionary adaptation and global change as part of my Centenary Fellowship. I’m excited about new collaborations with &#8230; <a href="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2018/07/24/plants-evolutionary-adaptation-and-global-change/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a> <p>I’ve recently started a position in the <a href="https://ecosystemforest.unimelb.edu.au/home">School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences</a>, University of Melbourne.</p> <p>I’ll be starting new work on plants, evolutionary adaptation and global change as part of my Centenary Fellowship.</p> <p>I’m excited about new collaborations with colleagues from SEFS, <a href="http://www.bio21.unimelb.edu.au/">Bio21 Molecular Science and Biotechnology Institute</a>, the <a href="https://qaeco.com/">Quantitative and Applied Ecology Research Group </a>and several groups in Spain.</p> <p>If you’re a student looking to work on the evolution of plants and life-history traits in fire-prone ecosystems it’s a good time to flick me an email: ltkelly@unimelb.edu.au</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_501" style="width: 1390px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="501" data-permalink="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2018/07/24/plants-evolutionary-adaptation-and-global-change/catlonia/" data-orig-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=640" data-orig-size="1380,1035" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Catalonia" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-501" src="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=640" alt="Catalonia" srcset="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=640 640w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=1280 1280w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=150 150w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=300 300w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=768 768w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/catlonia.png?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">In Mediterranean pine-oak forests, some plants need fire to complete their life cycles, and others have adaptations, such as thick bark or the capacity to resprout, that aid recovery after fire. Catalonia, Spain.</p></div> Moving to King’s College London https://janecatford.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/moving-to-kings-college-london/ Jane Catford's Research urn:uuid:8ca3fe82-142b-88df-a214-d705df608f26 Thu, 19 Jul 2018 00:51:38 +0000 In exciting news, I am taking up a new position in the Department of Geography at King&#8217;s College London in September. Founded in 1829 by King George IV and the Duke of Wellington, King&#8217;s is the fourth oldest university in the UK, and is &#8230; <a href="https://janecatford.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/moving-to-kings-college-london/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a> <p>In exciting news, I am taking up a new position in the <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/departments/geography/index.aspx">Department of Geography</a> at <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/index.aspx">King&#8217;s College London</a> in September.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1388" style="width: 1310px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1388" data-permalink="https://janecatford.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/moving-to-kings-college-london/bush-bus/" data-orig-file="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=640" data-orig-size="1300,881" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="bush bus" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1388" src="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=640" alt="bush bus" srcset="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=640 640w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=1280 1280w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=150 150w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=300 300w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=768 768w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bush-bus.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Bush House: home of King&#8217;s Geography (and my new office)</p></div> <p>Founded in 1829 by King George IV and the Duke of Wellington, King&#8217;s is the fourth oldest university in the UK, and is one of the world&#8217;s top 25 universities.</p> <p>KCL has one of the strongest Geography departments <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/mar/08/qs-world-university-rankings-2017-geography">globally</a>, with research and education that extends across physical, environmental and human geography. I will be in the <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/departments/geography/research/Research-Domains/Environmental-Dynamics/index.aspx">Environmental Dynamics</a> theme, connecting hydrological, geomorphological, atmospheric and ecological processes. Right where I love to be!</p> <p>Based at the Strand campus, with views over the Thames, it is hard to be more central &#8212; not just literally in terms of London itself, but figuratively too. As a global city, London is a hotspot of education, research, culture &#8212; and has incredible connections with the rest of the UK and the rest of the world.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_1390" style="width: 1337px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="1390" data-permalink="https://janecatford.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/moving-to-kings-college-london/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04/" data-orig-file="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=640" data-orig-size="1327,889" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Screenshot 2018-07-18 19.43.04" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1390" src="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=640" alt="Screenshot 2018-07-18 19.43.04" srcset="https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=640 640w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=1280 1280w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=150 150w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=300 300w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=768 768w, https://janecatford.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/screenshot-2018-07-18-19-43-04.png?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">No excuses not to visit if you&#8217;re ever in London</p></div> <p>If you’re interested in working or <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/departments/geography/study/index.aspx">studying</a> with me, or would like to visit, please do get in touch.</p> <p>[My KCL email address isn&#8217;t yet up and running, but my University of Melbourne email will remain active, so that&#8217;s a good one to go with for now: catfordjunimelb.edu.au].</p>