Qaecologist Posts http://feed.informer.com/digests/T57DVXB9YH/feeder Qaecologist Posts Respective post owners and feed distributors Mon, 15 Feb 2016 08:40:04 +0000 Feed Informer http://feed.informer.com/ New study: Which species drive my conservation priorities? https://hkujalaresearch.wordpress.com/2018/01/16/new-study-which-species-drive-my-conservation-priorities/ Heini Kujala urn:uuid:641138ac-a2d1-7071-bbbb-3a3ca8a0682a Mon, 15 Jan 2018 23:00:05 +0000 In conservation planning, we often need to divide resources between multiple species. As conservation budgets virtually never meet the needs of adequate conservation, it’s important that every dollar is spent efficiently. Since many conservation actions have a spatial component, that &#8230; <a href="https://hkujalaresearch.wordpress.com/2018/01/16/new-study-which-species-drive-my-conservation-priorities/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a> <p><div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_485" style="max-width: 267px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img data-attachment-id="485" data-permalink="https://hkujalaresearch.wordpress.com/2018/01/16/new-study-which-species-drive-my-conservation-priorities/pilot_whale_spyhop/" data-orig-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/pilot_whale_spyhop.jpg?w=257&#038;h=208" data-orig-size="2048,1654" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;4.5&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon EOS 450D&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1277825196&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;115&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;200&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.0015625&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="pilot_whale_spyhop" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/pilot_whale_spyhop.jpg?w=257&#038;h=208?w=300" data-large-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/pilot_whale_spyhop.jpg?w=257&#038;h=208?w=584" class=" wp-image-485 alignright" src="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/pilot_whale_spyhop.jpg?w=257&#038;h=208" alt="pilot_whale_spyhop" width="257" height="208" srcset="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/pilot_whale_spyhop.jpg?w=257&amp;h=208 257w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/pilot_whale_spyhop.jpg?w=514&amp;h=416 514w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/pilot_whale_spyhop.jpg?w=150&amp;h=121 150w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/pilot_whale_spyhop.jpg?w=300&amp;h=242 300w" sizes="(max-width: 257px) 100vw, 257px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Pilot whale wondering where to go next. &#8212;- Photo by By Barney Moss (Watching Whales 4) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons</p></div>In conservation planning, we often need to divide resources between multiple species. As <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/content/338/6109/946" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conservation budgets virtually never meet the needs</a> of adequate conservation, it’s important that every dollar is spent efficiently. Since many conservation actions have a spatial component, that is, they include the question of <strong>where</strong> the money should be spent, the question of how to divide resources quickly becomes about how to divide them between locations.<span id="more-483"></span>If all target species are found in the same location, this question is easily solved. But species practically never have identical distributions, and under fixed budgets targeting one location and the species present there comes with the obvious trade-off of having less money left for other species occurring elsewhere in the landscape. Spatial solutions therefore need to be balanced between different locations. A set of location that together deliver the greatest benefit to all species are typically considered as priority for conservation actions.</p> <p>I recently led <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/2041-210X.12939/full" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a study</a> with <a href="https://www.rmit.edu.au/contact/staff-contacts/academic-staff/g/gordon-dr-ascelin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dr Ascelin Gordon</a> (RMIT) and <a href="https://tuhat.helsinki.fi/portal/en/persons/atte-moilanen(e3167f43-260d-4764-9c3b-1c0a7a35ddc7).html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prof Atte Moilanen</a> (Uni Helsinki) that looked at how the distribution patterns of target species dictate the way priority patterns emerge in multi-species conservation problems. We asked the following question: if we have a fixed budget (e.g. we can only protect a fixed area of land) and we want to maximize the outcome for species included in the plan, how much does the addition of one species change the plan? We then compared the observed change to the spatial characteristics of the species.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_498" style="max-width: 1053px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="498" data-permalink="https://hkujalaresearch.wordpress.com/2018/01/16/new-study-which-species-drive-my-conservation-priorities/speciesinfluencereserves/" data-orig-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=584" data-orig-size="1043,607" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="SpeciesInfluenceReserves" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=584?w=300" data-large-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=584?w=584" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-498" src="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=584" alt="SpeciesInfluenceReserves" srcset="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=584 584w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=150 150w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=300 300w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=768 768w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png?w=1024 1024w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/speciesinfluencereserves.png 1043w" sizes="(max-width: 584px) 100vw, 584px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Species distributions can indicate the level of trade-offs that need to be made between species under fixed conservation budget. The upper panel shows a potential reserve network that would protect the core habitats (shown in green) of masked owls and squirrel gliders in the Hunter Valley. With little modifications, same amount of area could be used to also protect core habitats of powerful owls, as it shares most of its habitats with the first two species. On the other hand, including tiger quoll, which has more dissimilar distribution, incurs larger changes to the reserve network configuration.</p></div> <p>We made several interesting findings. First, when resources are divided between many species so to maximize gains for all, it is the <strong>intermediately rare </strong>species inhabiting species poor environments that shape the distribution of priority areas the most. This might feel somewhat surprising, because we often think of locations with rarest species to be the most irreplaceable (which they are), and it would seem logical to think that they dictate conservation plans the most. However, if a species is <strong>very</strong> rare (e.g, a critically endangered orchid that only occurs in one or two confined location) it can be protected with a relatively little land area. Hence, when a very rare species is added to a conservation plan only minor spatial changes are needed, even if the species occurs in total isolation from all other species. On the other hand, as the distribution of a species gets larger, so does the likelihood of it sharing the space with other species. It therefore becomes increasingly likely that the existing plan already captures at least parts of the new species’ distribution, and that again relatively minor adjustments are needed. So there exists a sweet point on the rarity axis at which species are most influential. This naturally interacts with the way species co-occur with other species, and for which species the original plan was even built for.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_487" style="max-width: 7096px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="487" data-permalink="https://hkujalaresearch.wordpress.com/2018/01/16/new-study-which-species-drive-my-conservation-priorities/figure_4/" data-orig-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=584" data-orig-size="7086,3779" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Figure_4" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=584?w=300" data-large-file="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=584?w=584" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-487" src="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=584" alt="Figure_4" srcset="https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=584 584w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=1166 1166w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=150 150w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=300 300w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=768 768w, https://hkujalaresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/figure_4.png?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 584px) 100vw, 584px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Relationship between species spatial characteristics and its influence on a conservation plan, shown for the two study regions (GH = Greater Hunter, FIN = Finland.). Each dot represents a species. The y-axis shows how much priority rankings of candidate locations are changed when the species is added to a plan that includes 10 (green), 20 (blue) or 100 (red) species. Regional coverage gives the proportion of study area occupied by the species, indicating rarity. Mean Jaccard index describes how similar the species distribution is to all other species in the plan. Richness within distribution gives the mean species richness inside the species distribution, and Spearman correlation shows how spatially correlated the species distribution is to the plan made without it. This graph shows how the influence of any single added species drops as the total number of species in the plan is increased (green to red).</p></div> <p>Which leads to our second finding, that conservation plans become increasingly stable the more species they are based on. This is because species are not randomly distributed in space but tend to co-occur in loose clusters, even in the most species poor environments. Hence, the more species are used to build a plan the more likely it is that they capture the habitats of the non-included species. Consequently, when &gt;100 species are used, the addition of one new species makes very little difference to the overall plan.</p> <p>Our third major finding was that the stability of the most and least important areas behave differently: the addition of a new species to a plan is likely to change the location of least important areas more than that of the most important areas. This has ramifications to some of the current practices, such as Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), that use information on species distributions to guide development into areas of lower impact. If these assessments are based on just a few number of species, which they often are, they may give false indication of how damaging it is to clear the proposed areas. Naturally, understanding the full impact of any development requires far more complicated analyses, but it all starts from not wiping out the core habitats of species.</p> <p>We tested these aspects using two independent data sets that differed in data type, resolution, scale and taxonomic composition: a multi-taxa data set of modelled species distributions (from Greater Hunter, NSW, Australia) and single taxon atlas data based on observations (Finnish bird atlas). The results were surprisingly similar across both data sets, indicating that our findings are robust to different data types and locations, although more testing would be needed to validate this. There are also many other factors that influence how spatial priorities shape up across space. These include things like species weights and conservation targets, the methods used to identify priority areas across multiple species and the many economical and sociopolitical factors that often also need to be accounted for.</p> <p>Understanding the relative impact any single species is likely to have on a conservation plan is nevertheless advantageous for conservation scientists and practitioners, because it helps to:</p> <ul> <li>disentangle the different drivers that dictate how priorities for multiple species become distributed in space, making the process and outputs more transparent,</li> <li>anticipate potential changes (or the lack of) when considering including new data into analyses,</li> <li>clarify how additional weights given to species shape the prioritization results (giving a high weight to already highly influential species may not result in greatly improved outcomes for that species), and</li> <li>is highly relevant from the perspective of input data uncertainty and value of information: uncertainties in the distribution information of a highly influential species are most likely to be of greater interest than those of less influential ones.</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>More details in the Open Access article published in <em>Methods in Ecology and Evolution</em>:<br /> <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/2041-210X.12939/full" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kujala H, Moilanen A, Gordon A. (2018) Spatial characteristics of species distributions as drivers in conservation prioritization. <em>Methods Ecol Evol</em>. Early view online. </a></p> Doctor of Philosophy https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/doctor-of-philosophy/ Freya's Research urn:uuid:c84c5ed6-6c25-10c5-f643-981718f4a2b0 Wed, 13 Dec 2017 02:22:55 +0000 It is a pleasure to write that I am now, nearly, degreed. My PhD was recently accepted into the Library at The University of Melbourne. I thought I would mark the occasion with short summary of the beast. Overall summary: &#8230; <a href="https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/doctor-of-philosophy/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com&#038;blog=34666045&#038;post=459&#038;subd=fmthomasresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <p>It is a pleasure to write that I am now, nearly, degreed.</p> <p>My PhD was recently accepted into the Library at The University of Melbourne. I thought I would mark the occasion with short summary of the beast.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_460" style="max-width: 989px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="460" data-permalink="https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/doctor-of-philosophy/photo_page_one/" data-orig-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png?w=640" data-orig-size="979,1526" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Photo_Page_One" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png?w=640?w=192" data-large-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-460" src="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png?w=640" alt="Photo_Page_One" srcset="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png?w=640 640w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png?w=96 96w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png?w=192 192w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png?w=768 768w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_one.png 979w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Some Mallee biodiversity</p></div> <p><strong>Overall summary:</strong></p> <p><em>Plant height and growth are fundamental to the understanding of species’ ecological strategies, to the description and prediction of ecosystem dynamics and to vegetation management. I explored how plant functional traits can be used to predict woody plant growth for many species. </em><em> I demonstrated internal and out-of-sample prediction of species growth trajectories from traits, I dissected methods to evaluate the predictive capacity of growth models and I outlined a virtual ecologist approach to designing robust field studies for complex analysis.</em></p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_461" style="max-width: 990px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="461" data-permalink="https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/doctor-of-philosophy/photo_page_two/" data-orig-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png?w=640" data-orig-size="980,1547" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Photo_Page_Two" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png?w=640?w=190" data-large-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-461" src="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png?w=640" alt="Photo_Page_Two" srcset="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png?w=640 640w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png?w=95 95w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png?w=190 190w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png?w=768 768w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_two.png 980w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Ominous skies and more mallee biodiversity</p></div> <p><strong>Chapter summaries:</strong></p> <p><strong>Chapter one</strong> incorporates plant functional traits into multi-species hierarchical non-linear models of plant growth. This approach increases our understanding of trait-growth relationships but also aids our ability to draw predictive inferences from them.  I built and parameterized models with a case-study of time since fire in semi-arid mallee woodland. I demonstrated inference by predicting species height-growth trajectories from traits to species with few data, to species with no growth data, only trait information, and for hypothetical species with defined trait combinations.</p> <p><strong>Chapter two</strong> contributed to the growth modeling literature by focusing on evaluating the predictive capacity of non-linear growth models using cross-validation.  I demonstrated why cross-validation is important compared to naïve performance metrics and demonstrated the value of using multiple metrics to capture different aspects of model performance.</p> <p>Gaining greater predictive capacity in trait-based ecology may also require stronger quantitative tests of model transferability, which is a severe test of how general a model actually is.  In <strong>chapter three</strong> I tested the out-of-sample predictive ability or transferability of my trait-growth models by using traits to predict the growth trajectories between species in three different ecosystems.</p> <p>The worth of predictions and inference from data analysis is intimately linked to the statistical and ecological assumptions of fitted models and fundamentally to the data underlying the analysis. My <strong>final chapter</strong> demonstrated a virtual ecologist approach to aid in the design of studies that use complex analysis techniques.  I used a simulation based on realistic fieldwork constraints such as species detection and occupancy rates, as well as travel times and unpredictable field conditions. This assists planning how much data is needed and how long that data will take to collect for hierarchical multi-species nonlinear models.</p> <p>Phew!</p> <p>In the unlikely event someone would like to read my thesis, get in touch and I will send you the open access link.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_463" style="max-width: 988px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="463" data-permalink="https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/doctor-of-philosophy/photo_page_three/" data-orig-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png?w=640" data-orig-size="978,1530" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Photo_Page_Three" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png?w=640?w=192" data-large-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-463" src="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png?w=640" alt="Photo_Page_Three" srcset="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png?w=640 640w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png?w=96 96w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png?w=192 192w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png?w=768 768w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/photo_page_three.png 978w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Red roads and more mallee biodiversity</p></div> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p><br /> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/459/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/459/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com&#038;blog=34666045&#038;post=459&#038;subd=fmthomasresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> Future scenarios of fire and biodiversity https://ltkellyresearch.com/2017/12/06/future-scenarios-of-fire-and-biodiversity/ Luke Kelly's Research urn:uuid:e533e298-a2c8-269c-9564-3c43fd4ffa48 Wed, 06 Dec 2017 00:43:31 +0000 Scenario planning is a powerful way to evaluate management alternatives when contending with uncontrollable and irreducible uncertainty. It’s a particularly useful approach for exploring ecological processes with high levels of uncertainty such as bushfires and climate change. In November, our &#8230; <a href="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2017/12/06/future-scenarios-of-fire-and-biodiversity/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=ltkellyresearch.com&#038;blog=25365152&#038;post=460&#038;subd=ltkellyresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <p>Scenario planning is a powerful way to evaluate management alternatives when contending with uncontrollable and irreducible uncertainty. It’s a particularly useful approach for exploring ecological processes with high levels of uncertainty such as bushfires and climate change.</p> <p>In November, our team from the Spatial Solutions Fire Ecology Project ran a one-day workshop with 30 fire and biodiversity managers and researchers from Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia. Our aim was to identify a small set of critical uncertainties that might influence the success of alternative fire management options.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_462" style="max-width: 5322px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="462" data-permalink="https://ltkellyresearch.com/2017/12/06/future-scenarios-of-fire-and-biodiversity/scenario-workshop-group/" data-orig-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=640" data-orig-size="5312,2988" data-comments-opened="0" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;2.2&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;SM-G900I&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1511276839&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;4.8&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;50&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.01&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}" data-image-title="scenario workshop group" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-462" src="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=640" alt="scenario workshop group" srcset="https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=640 640w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=1280 1280w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=150 150w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=300 300w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=768 768w, https://ltkellyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/scenario-workshop-group.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Participants in the workshop on fire and biodiversity scenarios held at University of Melbourne, Parkville.  Participating agencies: Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (Vic), Parks Victoria, NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service and SA Department of Environment. </p></div> <p>Co-designing scenarios with key stakeholders proved a fantastic opportunity to clarify social and conservation objectives, develop novel management alternatives and explore a range of possible futures relating to extreme weather, demographics and public policy.</p> <p>The next stage of the Spatial Solutions project will be to use a ‘storyline and simulation’ approach to estimate the consequences of alternative management options against the backdrop of critical uncertainties identified in the workshop.</p> <p>If you’re interested in discussing ideas, tools and methods relating to scenario analysis and fire modelling get in touch with Luke Kelly (<a href="mailto:ltkelly@unimelb.edu.au">ltkelly@unimelb.edu.au</a>) and Kate Giljohann (<a href="mailto:kmgi@unimelb.edu.au">kmgi@unimelb.edu.au</a>).</p><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=ltkellyresearch.com&#038;blog=25365152&#038;post=460&#038;subd=ltkellyresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> Replication Studies and EcoTas17 https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/replication-studies-and-ecotas17/ Hannah Fraser Research urn:uuid:e4124522-3208-08cf-78e0-c87737bb4318 Sun, 19 Nov 2017 22:04:38 +0000 It&#8217;s the Southern Hemisphere conference season and I&#8217;ve got the fantastic opportunity to go to EcoTas17 and I don&#8217;t even have to present! Instead, in exchange for my conference registration money I will be collecting data and I would love &#8230; <a href="https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/replication-studies-and-ecotas17/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=hsfraser.wordpress.com&#038;blog=94796466&#038;post=316&#038;subd=hsfraser&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <p>It&#8217;s the Southern Hemisphere conference season and I&#8217;ve got the fantastic opportunity to go to EcoTas17 and I don&#8217;t even have to present! Instead, in exchange for my conference registration money I will be collecting data and I would love your help!</p> <p>PhD student Ashley Barnett is conducting a study trying to understand the role of replication studies in ecology and evolution and we collected data on it together at the American ESA earlier this year. However, southern hemisphere types were very poorly represented so I&#8217;m hoping to collect their/your opinions at EcoTas17. I&#8217;ll be lurking around the morning and afternoon tea tables and roaming among you at between sessions trying to convince you to fill in a 5-15 minute survey on replication studies.</p> <p>There are three things you need to know about this:</p> <ol> <li>When I say &#8216;replication study&#8217; I mean doing a whole study a second time&#8230; I do not mean replication within a study. You wouldn&#8217;t believe how much confusion that caused at ESA</li> <li>We&#8217;d love to hear your opinions regardless of your views on the matter. If you think they&#8217;re stupid, excellent or you couldn&#8217;t care less we would like to hear from you</li> <li>Everyone we survey can choose to go into a PRIZE DRAW to win a personalised piece of art based on their research and created by <a href="http://katecranney.com/">Kate Cranney.</a> I&#8217;ve written about her art <a href="https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/05/29/kate-cranneys-beautiful-art/">before </a>and am lucky enough to have one of these pieces myself&#8230; it&#8217;s one of my most prized possessions&#8230; something that I would save if the house was on fire.</li> </ol> <p>In case you need any more incentive&#8230; here are some examples of her work!!!</p> <a href='https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/replication-studies-and-ecotas17/katemammal/'><img width="150" height="127" src="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katemammal.png?w=150&#038;h=127" class="attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail" alt="" srcset="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katemammal.png?w=150&#038;h=127 150w, https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katemammal.png?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" data-attachment-id="317" data-permalink="https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/replication-studies-and-ecotas17/katemammal/" data-orig-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katemammal.png" data-orig-size="2560,2164" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="KateMammal" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katemammal.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katemammal.png?w=640" /></a> <a href='https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/replication-studies-and-ecotas17/katefrigate/'><img width="150" height="113" src="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefrigate.png?w=150&#038;h=113" class="attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail" alt="" srcset="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefrigate.png?w=150&#038;h=113 150w, https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefrigate.png?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" data-attachment-id="318" data-permalink="https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/replication-studies-and-ecotas17/katefrigate/" data-orig-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefrigate.png" data-orig-size="2560,1920" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="KateFrigate" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefrigate.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefrigate.png?w=640" /></a> <a href='https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/replication-studies-and-ecotas17/katefish/'><img width="127" height="150" src="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefish.png?w=127&#038;h=150" class="attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail" alt="" srcset="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefish.png?w=127&#038;h=150 127w, https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefish.png?w=254 254w" sizes="(max-width: 127px) 100vw, 127px" data-attachment-id="319" data-permalink="https://hsfraser.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/replication-studies-and-ecotas17/katefish/" data-orig-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefish.png" data-orig-size="2171,2560" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="KateFish" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefish.png?w=254" data-large-file="https://hsfraser.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/katefish.png?w=640" /></a> <p>&nbsp;</p><br /> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/hsfraser.wordpress.com/316/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/hsfraser.wordpress.com/316/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=hsfraser.wordpress.com&#038;blog=94796466&#038;post=316&#038;subd=hsfraser&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> VicBioCon 2018 https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/11/13/vicbiocon-2018/ Freya's Research urn:uuid:3fbe154f-9398-04d2-3c51-9d629be432b0 Mon, 13 Nov 2017 02:58:32 +0000 After a successful inaugural Victorian Biodiversity Conference earlier this year, a group of motivated students and early career researchers from a wide range of Victorian Universities (RMIT, La Trobe, Monash, Federation, Charles Sturt, Melbourne, Deakin) have begun planning our next &#8230; <a href="https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/11/13/vicbiocon-2018/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com&#038;blog=34666045&#038;post=440&#038;subd=fmthomasresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" /> <p><img data-attachment-id="455" data-permalink="https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/11/13/vicbiocon-2018/unnamed/" data-orig-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=640" data-orig-size="1390,394" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="unnamed" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-455" src="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=640" alt="unnamed" srcset="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=640 640w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=1277 1277w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=150 150w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=300 300w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=768 768w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></p> <p>After a successful inaugural <strong>Victorian Biodiversity Conference</strong> earlier this year, a group of motivated students and early career researchers from a wide range of Victorian Universities (RMIT, La Trobe, Monash, Federation, Charles Sturt, Melbourne, Deakin) have begun planning our next conference to be held <strong>6th-7th of February 2018 at La Trobe University, Melbourne</strong>: <a href="https://www.vicbiocon.com/" rel="nofollow">https://www.vicbiocon.com</a></p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_444" style="width: 1745px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="444" data-permalink="https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/11/13/vicbiocon-2018/damp_hibb_gomph/" data-orig-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=640" data-orig-size="1735,617" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Damp_Hibb_Gomph" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-444" src="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=640" alt="Damp_Hibb_Gomph" srcset="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=640 640w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=1280 1280w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=150 150w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=300 300w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=768 768w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/damp_hibb_gomph.png?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Some colourful examples of Victorian Biodiversity</p></div> <p>This event aims to be a low cost and accessible conference to promote networking between graduate and postdoctoral researchers, as well as practitioners in government and NGOs working on research related to Victorian biodiversity.</p> <p>The conference will provide an important and rare opportunity for young researchers to hear from government, industry and non-governmental organisations, as well as foster inter-University interactions through a series of plenaries, invited talks, workshops and networking opportunities.</p> <div data-shortcode="caption" id="attachment_449" style="width: 2055px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-attachment-id="449" data-permalink="https://fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/2017/11/13/vicbiocon-2018/seeds/" data-orig-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=640" data-orig-size="2045,538" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="Seeds" data-image-description="" data-medium-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=640?w=300" data-large-file="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=640?w=640" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-449" src="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=640" alt="Seeds" srcset="https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=640 640w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=1277 1277w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=150 150w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=300 300w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=768 768w, https://fmthomasresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seeds.png?w=1024 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Some more Biodiversity for you &#8230; all plant themed, of course. </p></div> <p>Abstract submission closes on the 15th of November, submit yours here: <a href="https://www.vicbiocon.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">abstract submission!</a></p><br /> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/440/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com/440/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=fmthomasresearch.wordpress.com&#038;blog=34666045&#038;post=440&#038;subd=fmthomasresearch&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />