Michael Novakhov - SharedNewsLinks

Russian Investigative Committee orders examination into AZAL plane crash

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 14:09:55 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Trend – News from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Turkey..

Germany stands at a crossroads, a nation once synonymous with democratic stability now grappling with the tremors of political upheaval. The dissolution of the Bundestag and the call for snap elections on February 23 are more than procedural anomalies—they are harbingers of a deeper crisis, a reckoning with forces that threaten the very fabric of its post-war order. At the heart of this turbulence lies the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), a party born from rebellion and metastasized into a specter of radicalism. Polling in second place nationally and dominant in the East, the AfD has become a force impossible to ignore but equally impossible to embrace.

This is not the Germany of Angela Merkel’s pragmatism, where compromise was the cornerstone of governance. That era, for all its successes, left a vacuum—a void where conservatism lost its identity and the far-right found its stage. The AfD rose from this fissure, offering disenchanted voters a mirage of "authenticity." Their promise? A return to a "real Germany," one unburdened by globalism, migration, and European entanglements. Their methods? Radical policies and rhetoric designed not to govern but to fracture the system.

What began in 2013 as an academic critique of the eurozone, led by Bernd Lucke and his cadre of economists, has transformed into a cauldron of extremism. The AfD of today is unrecognizable from its origins, having shed its moderate skin through purges, power struggles, and the ascension of figures like Björn Höcke, whose rhetoric blurs the line between nationalism and outright fanaticism. From advocating Germany's exit from the EU to demanding pre-detention camps for asylum seekers, the AfD has crafted a platform not of solutions but of provocations. It thrives on opposition, positioning itself as the sole voice of "the people" against an elite they decry as traitorous.

Yet, for all its noise, the AfD is trapped in a paradox of its own making. Its very radicalism ensures its isolation. No mainstream party will risk a coalition, and even insurgent forces like Sahra Wagenknecht’s bloc keep their distance. The AfD’s strategy is clear: remain an outsider, a disruptor. But this path has limits. Opposition may amplify their rhetoric, but it offers no pathway to governance, no blueprint for uniting a fractured nation.

The party’s rise is a mirror held up to Germany itself, reflecting a society struggling with identity and direction. Angela Merkel’s CDU, once a bastion of center-right stability, ceded its ideological territory to the extremes. Traditional parties, mired in cautious centrism, failed to answer the questions posed by globalization, migration, and economic inequality. Into this void stepped the AfD, offering answers that resonate not because they are right, but because they are loud.

This loudness has consequences. The AfD’s electoral success comes at the cost of its integrity, as scandals and internal rifts pile up. German intelligence monitors the party for undermining democratic principles, a shadow that looms over its ambitions. Former allies like Jörg Meuthen denounce it as a "radical cult," while founder Bernd Lucke laments that his creation, meant to critique EU fiscal policy, has mutated into a force bent on dismantling the republic itself.

The AfD’s strategy—radicalization without governance—can only take it so far. Their influence on Germany’s political landscape is undeniable, but influence is not power. The Bundestag, fractured and fragile, may echo with their defiance, but it will not yield to their control. For Germany, the AfD’s ascent is not just a challenge but a test. Can the country’s democratic institutions weather this storm? Or will the winds of radicalism erode the foundations of what has long been Europe’s anchor of stability?

The answer lies not just in the party’s trajectory but in Germany’s response. A failure to address the underlying discontent that fuels the AfD risks prolonging their rise, turning protest into permanence. But the party’s refusal to moderate, its insistence on conflict over compromise, ensures that it remains a movement of resistance rather than governance. The AfD may shake the system, but it cannot replace it. Its ascent has a ceiling, and that ceiling is the very democracy it seeks to undermine.

A Symbol of Division: The AfD and Germany’s Identity Crisis

The rise of the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) is more than a political phenomenon; it is a mirror reflecting a deeper fracture within German society. The party’s embrace of nationalism, rejection of European values, and opposition to globalization is not just a platform—it’s an ideology that draws lines between "us" and "them," creating a nation divided against itself. Germany stands at a crossroads: to uphold its democratic traditions or to yield to radicals for whom compromise is defeat and division is a tool for power.

The February snap elections will not deliver a triumph for the AfD. Its ultra-radicalism makes it untouchable for other parties, ensuring its continued role in opposition. But even without governing power, the AfD’s impact on Germany’s political landscape is profound. The question is whether Germany’s democracy can withstand the pressure of these radical winds, or if the fractures they expose will continue to widen.

Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-chair and chancellor candidate, is a figure of stark contradictions. An openly gay woman, she speaks in favor of same-sex unions, supports attracting skilled migrants, and doesn’t entirely dismiss Germany’s EU membership. At first glance, she seems like a harbinger of change, a voice of moderation in a party notorious for its extremism. But this façade of progressiveness fades against the backdrop of the AfD’s unyielding radical core.

Weidel’s polished image clashes with the rhetoric of her co-chair, Tino Chrupalla, whose anti-immigrant and pro-Putin stance underscores the party’s far-right foundation. The AfD’s electoral platform, unveiled before the elections, lays bare its true intentions: leaving the European Union, reinstating the Deutsche Mark, resuming Russian gas imports, lifting sanctions on Russia, and detaining asylum seekers at the border. These proposals obliterate any notion of a rebrand, anchoring the party firmly in its extremist identity.

Radicalism Through Scandal

The AfD’s 2024 campaign has been riddled with scandals that would sink most political movements. Revelations of secret meetings to plan mass deportations, divisive comments on migrants’ loyalty, and leaders’ controversial remarks about SS crimes during World War II should have shattered its base. Yet, the party’s supporters remain steadfast. In regions like Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, the AfD’s numbers remain robust, even climbing.

Why do such scandals fail to erode trust? For AfD voters, radicalism is not a liability but a virtue. These voters see the party not just as a political force but as a crusader against the perceived decay of national values. For them, compromise equates to surrender, and the AfD’s confrontational stance is a declaration of war on a system they feel has abandoned them.

Alice Weidel: The Contradictions Within

Weidel, despite her perceived moderation, does not stray from the party line. Her response to the Magdeburg terrorist attack—blaming "Islamists" even when the perpetrator had ties to the AfD—reveals that moderation is a tool, not a principle. Weidel’s allegiance to the party’s radical platform, including homophobic policies and anti-liberal rhetoric, solidifies her as a loyalist to the AfD’s extremist agenda.

Unlike European counterparts like Giorgia Meloni or Marine Le Pen, who have sought to soften their parties’ edges to appeal to broader electorates, the AfD chooses confrontation over conciliation. It is a strategy that keeps its core intact but alienates potential allies and moderates. For the AfD, radicalism is not a stepping stone—it is the destination.

The AfD’s rise signals more than a shift in voter preferences—it marks a critical test for Germany’s democratic resilience. The party’s rejection of compromise and its embrace of division challenges the post-war political order that has long anchored Germany’s stability. Its supporters see it as the sole defender of their interests, while its detractors view it as a direct threat to democratic principles.

The party’s future remains a paradox. It grows stronger as a disruptive force, yet its very radicalism ensures it remains isolated from true power. As Germany heads into elections, the AfD’s strategy of polarization will continue to fracture the political landscape. The question is whether the country’s democratic institutions can adapt to counter the discontent fueling its rise—or risk being undermined by the very system they were built to protect.

The AfD may never govern, but its influence is undeniable. It has reshaped German politics, forcing the nation to confront uncomfortable truths about its identity, unity, and future. Whether Germany chooses to reaffirm its democratic path or succumbs to the fractures the AfD exposes will define not just this election, but the trajectory of a nation caught between its past and an uncertain future.

Alice Weidel’s journey within the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) is a study in transformation and pragmatism. In 2017, she vehemently condemned Björn Höcke, the leader of the party’s extremist faction, and even advocated for his expulsion. But by 2020, her stance shifted dramatically. She voted against dissolving Höcke’s ultra-right group, "The Wing," marking a turning point in her career. This decision aligned her with the party’s most radical elements, ensuring her survival in a factionalized and increasingly hardline organization.

By 2024, Weidel’s calculated reconciliation with Höcke culminated in a public display of unity during a joint appearance in Erfurt. This move solidified her leadership and positioned her as the party’s chancellor candidate, but it also underscored the myth of her moderation. Despite attempts to portray her as the face of AfD’s "rebranding," Weidel’s actions reveal a steadfast loyalty to the party’s radical core.

The AfD’s popularity has reached unprecedented levels, stabilizing at 17–19% nationally and soaring to 30% in Germany’s eastern states. It now confidently occupies second place in polls, surpassing the Social Democrats (SPD). This success stems from its ability to channel voter frustration into a cohesive message of nationalism, anti-globalization, and opposition to the political establishment.

The party’s draft platform for the 2025 elections leaves no doubt about its radical intentions:

Germany’s withdrawal from the EU and abandonment of the euro;
Resumption of Russian gas imports and the lifting of sanctions on Russia;
Preemptive detention of asylum seekers at the border;
A refusal to condemn Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Unlike European counterparts such as Giorgia Meloni or Marine Le Pen, who have tempered their rhetoric to appeal to broader audiences, the AfD embraces confrontation. Its platform is not a bid for mainstream acceptance but a declaration of ideological warfare.

Björn Hö and offering radical solutions that resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.

However, collaboration with the AfD remains politically toxic. Even anti-establishment movements like the "Sahra Wagenknecht Bloc" avoid alliances with the AfD to preserve their credibility. Attempts to legitimize a party so deeply associated with extremism risk alienating broader voter bases and undermining the democratic system.

The AfD’s Role as a Disruptive Force

While excluded from power, the AfD continues to shape Germany’s political landscape. Its presence in the Bundestag amplifies its message and forces traditional parties to address issues it has monopolized, such as migration and national sovereignty. In a fragmented political environment, the AfD could act as a coalition-breaker, complicating efforts to form stable governments.

This scenario raises the risk of pragmatic, albeit unofficial, alliances driven by necessity rather than ideology. Such developments could further destabilize Germany’s political equilibrium, reinforcing the AfD’s role as a disruptive force.

The AfD’s rise challenges the foundations of Germany’s democracy. It reflects a society grappling with questions of identity, governance, and the limits of tolerance. The party’s strategy of radicalization appeals to those disillusioned with the status quo but alienates potential allies and moderates.

As the February elections approach, Germany faces a pivotal moment. Will the country’s democratic institutions adapt to counter the forces driving the AfD’s ascent, or will this far-right movement continue to erode the political consensus that has defined post-war Germany? The answer will not only determine the AfD’s future but also shape the trajectory of German democracy in the years to come.

The rise of the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) underscores a profound and growing fracture within Germany’s political and social fabric. While the party remains isolated at the federal level, its strongholds in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg reveal a durable base of support that threatens national cohesion. These regional victories highlight the widening divide between Germany’s eastern and western states, underscoring the stark cultural and political rifts that challenge the country’s unity.

Despite its successes, the AfD is acutely aware of its limitations. In its current incarnation, the party is unfit to lead Germany. Its radicalism, while galvanizing its core supporters, precludes broader appeal or coalition-building. Yet, paradoxically, this extremism is also its lifeblood. By embracing a protest vote fueled by disillusionment with traditional parties, the AfD has carved out a space as the second-largest political force in Germany—a position it could maintain for years without fundamentally altering its strategy.

The AfD’s strategy of radicalism ensures its status as an "anti-system" force—a party of protest rather than governance. This approach allows it to remain a disruptive presence, amplifying grievances and reshaping political discourse without the burden of responsibility. However, this self-imposed isolation comes at a cost. While it solidifies the party’s identity among its base, it also limits its capacity to achieve meaningful power or enact its platform.

A rejection of radicalism, akin to the moderation embraced by right-wing movements in Italy or France, could open doors to coalition politics and broaden the AfD’s appeal. Yet such a shift would risk alienating its core supporters, for whom extremism is not a flaw but a feature. For now, the AfD thrives as a loud but isolated voice, railing against the very structures it seeks to undermine.

The Double-Edged Sword of Isolation

The political quarantine imposed on the AfD by mainstream parties is often framed as a defense of democracy. But this isolation is not without risks. Over time, it could deepen the crisis of trust in the political system. If traditional parties fail to address societal demands—on migration, globalization, or economic disparity—protest sentiments will only grow, further empowering radical forces like the AfD.

The February 23 elections will test Germany’s ability to navigate this precarious moment. Will the country’s leaders forge compromises to stabilize the political landscape, or will they allow fragmentation to continue? The AfD, with its role as a disruptor, is poised to exploit any missteps, turning systemic weaknesses into political capital.

At the heart of the AfD’s rise lies a deliberate embrace of radicalism. Rejecting moderation, the party positions itself as a force of confrontation, challenging established norms and structures. Its rhetoric and policies resonate with voters who feel left behind by globalization and disillusioned with the compromises of mainstream politics. For these supporters, the AfD represents not just a political alternative but a vehicle for reclaiming national identity and sovereignty.

This strategy, however, is a double-edged sword. While it consolidates the party’s base, it also isolates the AfD from broader political legitimacy. Unlike European counterparts who have softened their positions to gain mainstream acceptance, the AfD chooses conflict over consensus, ensuring its outsider status even as its popularity grows.

The AfD’s ascent is not a triumph of democracy but a challenge to its resilience. Once a symbol of stability, Germany now finds itself at a crossroads. The AfD embodies the dissatisfaction of a segment of society, but its success poses a stark question: can Germany’s democratic institutions withstand the pressures of radicalism, or will they falter under the weight of growing division?

The party’s future is deeply entwined with its past. Its reliance on radicalism, rejection of compromise, and pursuit of power at all costs define its identity but also limit its potential. The February elections will not only determine the AfD’s immediate trajectory but also serve as a litmus test for Germany’s democratic endurance.

Germany faces a battle for its political soul. Will the nation reaffirm its commitment to democratic principles, or will it yield to the forces of division and extremism? The stakes are nothing less than the future of Europe’s most pivotal democracy. The answer lies not only in the AfD’s ambitions but in Germany’s collective resolve to meet the challenges it represents.

Baku Network

Azerbaijan: One of the Pillars of Israel's Regional Security System – A Brief Overview for the Trump Administration

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 13:51:40 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

By Zeev (Vladimir) Khanin and Alex Grinberg

The Trump administration, which begins its work on January 20th, places the security of Israel, its primary ally in the Middle East, at the forefront. Statements from Trump’s close associates clearly indicate that his doctrine includes provisions for expanding the Abraham Accords. In this context, the Israeli leadership and national diplomacy—both governmental and public—should judiciously direct Washington’s attention to those actors in the geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Asia who have long-established strategic partnerships with Jerusalem and can positively impact the role of the Jewish state in Trump’s envisioned “new Middle East”.

Azerbaijan deserves special attention as it holds the longest and most comprehensive partnership with Israel among Muslim nations. During a December 2024 meeting with the President of Azerbaijan, leaders of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) acknowledged that the U.S. had not fully appreciated Azerbaijan’s longstanding support for Israel and contributions to regional stability. “For the Trump administration and the State of Israel, Azerbaijan holds significant value,” noted the Maariv, covering the meeting.

As Mark Fish acknowledges in The Jerusalem Post: “The arrival in Baku of both the current and incoming leaders of AIPAC demonstrates a clear recognition of Azerbaijan’s pivotal role in regional stability and its unwavering support for Israel. It also reflects an acknowledgment that past U.S. administrations did not fully appreciate the value of engaging with Azerbaijan”.

In its turn, Maariv emphasized that, against the backdrop of the weakening of Iranian influence in the Middle East, “the leader of Azerbaijan is capable of contributing to a reduction in tensions in a region that the American administration views as being of high strategic importance“.

Indeed, as Songer Cagatay of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) noted in 2005: “Washington has many reasons to further improve its relationship with Azerbaijan and to support that country in the international arena. In this context, it should applaud the Azerbaijani friendship with Israel”. Given the changed geopolitical realities, there are now more reasons to “improve relations with Azerbaijan”. Therefore, when shaping its policy in the South Caucasus, the Trump administration should consider the following factors:

Azerbaijan is the only country in the world that has maintained a 30-year-long military-strategic partnership with the U.S.’s key ally in the Middle East while bordering two of America’s geopolitical rivals—Russia and Iran.
Azerbaijan shares a 765 km border with Iran, with Tehran just 365 km away, and ethnic Azerbaijanis, Iran’s largest minority, comprise approximately 20% of Iran’s population (17.7 million).
Azerbaijan is vital to Europe’s energy security, supplying oil and gas to 17 EU countries as a key alternative to Russian supplies.
Azerbaijan is an important hub for regional transit trade. In November 2024, the Israeli ambassador to Baku stated: “Israeli companies are now recognizing the strategic importance of Azerbaijan, not only as a partner but also as a crossroads between East and West – the Middle Corridor – serving as a gateway to Central Asia”.
Azerbaijan is the largest country in the South Caucasus in terms of territory, population, economy, and military power.

Since the 1990s, Azerbaijan, a secular, Muslim-majority state, has been a discreet pillar of Israel’s regional security, key to U.S. interests.

According to Globes, these relations “have flourished since 1992” and are “the most stable” among all that the Jewish state maintains in the Muslim world. As reported by Haaretz, in 1998 Azerbaijan was already designated as a “key state” in internal documents of Israel’s MFA. In 2009, Deputy Director-General of the MFA, Pinhas Avivi, declared: “Relations between Israel and Azerbaijan are of a strategic nature“. In 2011, Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau remarked: “Israel needs a strong Azerbaijan”. In 2013, the Globes emphasized: “Israel views Azerbaijan as an important ally and a true friend…“. In 2022, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid stated: “Azerbaijan is an important partner for Israel”, while former Israeli Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, noted: “Azerbaijan is one of our most important allies in Asia…“.

In December 2023, Ynet noted that “Azerbaijan is the only Muslim country in the world supporting Israel in the war” (against Hamas and Hezbollah). In February 2024, INN reported, citing government sources in Jerusalem and leaders of the Jewish diaspora, that despite pressure from other Muslim countries, President Aliyev unequivocally stands with the Jewish state amid the war. Around the same time, Srugim referred to Azerbaijani leader as a “friend of Israel“, emphasizing his special role in advancing bilateral relations. In July, representatives of both countries’ leadership, including Azerbaijan’s Minister of Defense, held talks on “strengthening regional cooperation”. Ynet highlighted that despite pressure on Baku, the intensification of the partnership occurred precisely during the height of the war (while all moderate Muslim countries distanced themselves from the Jewish state).

Even when most of the Western airlines suspended flights to Israel, Azerbaijan’s state-owned airline continued operating flights with only brief interruptions, and Israeli tourist flow to Azerbaijan increased by 50%. In October, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen once again reaffirmed that relations with this Muslim-majority country are “of strategic importance“. In November, Ynet noted that, against the backdrop of Yerevan’s anti-Israel stance and its ties with Tehran, Jerusalem intends to further strengthen its ties with Baku.

Azerbaijan holds the longest and most comprehensive partnership with Israel among Muslim nations. “Here is an example of how Muslims and Jews work together to ensure a better future for both,” PM Netanyahu stated in 2016.

The following facts demonstrate Azerbaijan’s special importance for the national security and regional defense capabilities of the Jewish state:

Since the 1990s, Azerbaijan has been key to Israel’s energy security. A senior Israeli intelligence source told Israel Hayom that Azerbaijani supplies were crucial even before Arab relations normalized (1994) and Israel discovered major gas fields (1999–2009). Azerbaijan’s energy bolstered Israel’s economy in the 1990s and 2000s, remaining its sole reliable partner in the Muslim world during the Second Intifada (2000–2004). The Israeli ambassador to Baku noted: “We believe that true friendship is tested in times of need, and I think this friendship between our countries has been proven in those critical times”. Israel Hayom reported in 2019 that Azerbaijan is the source of over 60% of the gasoline that Israelis consume. In 2021, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi stated: “Azerbaijan is an ally, a friend, and the largest supplier of energy resources to Israel“. In 2022, the Zman.co.il stated: “Most of the fuel in Israel comes from Azerbaijan — from gasoline for private cars to jet fuel for the Air Force’s fighter jets“. As Ynet noted in 2024, during the height of the war (when Israel’s armed forces particularly needed uninterrupted fuel supplies), Azerbaijan increased its oil exports to the Jewish state by 55%.

Since the late 2000s, Azerbaijan has been a top importer of Israeli military products, with Israeli supplies comprising 60–69% of its military imports in the 2010s. A new agreement was signed in September 2024. These deals generate billions, supporting Israeli jobs, funding new military developments, and contributing to joint Israeli-U.S. projects critical to Israel’s security.

Azerbaijan is a key Israeli partner against Iran, with both viewing the Ayatollah regime as an existential threat and cooperating for many years. “We share a common dangerous enemy—the Iranian tyranny that threatens the destruction of both our peoples”, Knesset members stated in 2023 in a collective message to their Azerbaijani counterparts.

It is symbolic that the foundation of this partnership to counter the Iranian threat was laid 30 years ago in the U.S. In October 1995, during a meeting in New York with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, President Heydar Aliyev emphasized that his “country has a very long and tense border with Iran” and requested assistance in the field of security[1]. In 1997, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Azerbaijan, where he held talks with Heydar Aliyev. This meeting gave a significant impetus to the strategic partnership between the two countries.

“Particularly since Ilham Aliyev became Azerbaijan’s president in October 2003, Iran has engaged in a campaign of intimidation toward the country. A group of high-level Iranian military officers visited Baku in August 2004, urging Azerbaijan to cease security cooperation with Israel and stop receiving Israeli military and intelligence officers…” noted WINEP. In June 2006, Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer stated: “Azerbaijan is a Muslim country with a large Shia population, bordering Iran. The location of this country is of great interest to us“. Government sources in Jerusalem clarified this statement in the context of the potential use of Azerbaijani territory in the event of an American or U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran. In December 2006, Brigadier General (Res.) Oded Tira emphasized: “We should also coordinate with Azerbaijan the use of airbases in its territory and also enlist the support of the Azeri minority in Iran“. In 2008, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni stated: “There are very close ties between Israel and Azerbaijan in strategically important areas such as security and intelligence sharing“. In 2009, U.S. Deputy Ambassador to Baku Donald Lu, describing the security cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan, quoted Aliyev in a document sent to the State Department. In a private conversation, Aliyev stated that these relations resemble an iceberg: “Nine-tenths of it is below the surface“.

In February 2012, the Associated Press noted that Azerbaijan had become an important base for Israeli intelligence. At the same time, The Times, citing a Mossad operative in Baku, reported that dozens of Israeli intelligence operatives were active in Azerbaijan. “Last year, we increased our presence, and this has brought us much closer to Iran,” the operative told the publication. In March 2012, Foreign Policy Magazine reported: “If Israeli jets want to land in Azerbaijan after an attack, they’d probably be allowed to do so. Israel is deeply embedded in Azerbaijan, and has been for the last two decades“.

The visit of Israel’s Defense Minister to Baku in 2014 “served as proof of the high level of military coordination between the two countries“. At the time, he confirmed that Azerbaijan and Israel are “engaged in broad-based strategic cooperation“. In 2015, The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) emphasized that the Iranian threat serves as a unifying factor, as both countries view it as an “existential threat“. “Mossad has a large and significant presence in Azerbaijan,” reported a prominent Israeli intelligence analyst in 2016. “Intelligence cooperation between the two countries makes it very difficult for the ayatollahs’ regime,” stated Israel Hayom in 2021.

The Second Karabakh War (2020) solidified Israel’s regional position
In the war, Azerbaijan reclaimed much of its territory—which had been occupied for 30 years with the tacit support of Iran, extending its border with Iran by 100 km. “During the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Israel sided with Azerbaijan, while Iran supported Armenia,” reported Globes. “The Iranians’ aspirations to ensure the success of the Armen

Daniel Fried: 'US has information on Ivanishvili’s dealings with Kremlin'

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 13:32:21 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from English Jamnews.

US sanctions Ivanishvili

Daniel Fried, a diplomat and former coordinator for sanctions policy at the U.S. State Department, spoke to Voice of America about the significance of U.S. sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili, the honorary chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party and the de facto ruler of Georgia. Fried emphasized that the sanctions were imposed under an executive order targeting Russian agents or individuals acting in Russia’s interests. “This means the United States has evidence of Ivanishvili’s actions on behalf of the Kremlin,” he added.

Fried also stated that the West continues to view Salome Zourabichvili, Georgia’s fifth president, as the country’s legitimate leader, even though her term officially ended in December with the inauguration of Mikheil Kavelashvili, appointed by Georgian Dream.

On December 27, 2024, the United States imposed financial sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili as part of a broader sanctions package against Russia. According to the U.S. State Department, “Ivanishvili has been added to the sanctions list for being responsible for, complicit in, or directly or indirectly engaging in actions or policies that undermine democratic processes or institutions in the United States or abroad, or for acting on behalf of or in the interests of, directly or indirectly, the Government of the Russian Federation.”
As a result of these sanctions, all of Ivanishvili’s assets in the United States have been frozen.

What did Daniel Fried say about the sanctions on Ivanishvili?

The diplomat noted that the sanctions against Ivanishvili were imposed under a special executive order targeting Russian agents and individuals acting in Russia’s interests.

“This is very significant because it indicates that the U.S. has evidence of Ivanishvili’s actions on behalf of the Kremlin.”

Fried also pointed out that the U.S. could have sanctioned Ivanishvili for human rights violations under the Magnitsky Act but instead chose to target him for actions benefitting Russia. “This is particularly interesting given the context of Russian aggression against Georgia, especially after 2008,” he remarked.

Fried highlighted the importance of the sanctions being fully blocking, meaning that, with few exceptions, anyone conducting financial transactions with Ivanishvili could also face penalties. The U.S. Treasury, however, made certain exceptions, refraining from targeting Ivanishvili-owned companies to avoid harming the Georgian economy or its people. Despite this, Fried acknowledged that the sanctions could still negatively impact the economy, as they represent “a much more serious step than visa restrictions.”

“It will now be much harder for Ivanishvili to conduct business. Of course, the sanctions won’t have a major effect on his business dealings in Russia. <…> They also won’t save democracy in Georgia — that is up to the Georgian people. But it is now clear that the United States has taken a critical step against the main force supporting Georgia’s authoritarian course,” Fried commented.

Daniel Fried also added that Salome Zurabishvili will continue to be regarded in the West as the legitimate leader of Georgian politics: “She has shown great courage and principle, earning respect throughout the democratic world.” The diplomat also highlighted the fact that Zurabishvili had been invited by Congressman Joe Wilson to attend Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Speaking about Mikheil Kavelashvili, the president appointed by the ruling party, Fried remarked, “Based on the actions he has taken as president, it gives the impression that he is the president of ‘Georgian Dream,’ not of Georgia.”

How Donald Trump Can Fix the Caucasus, Too | Opinion

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 12:52:57 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

As Donald Trump assumes once more the presidency in the United States, most of the foreign policy discussion revolves around Ukraine, the Middle East, China and other big stories. Indeed, even before assuming office his first order of global business appears to have been Gaza. So it may surprise some to know that in my corner of the world, the South Caucasus, anticipation is also at a fever pitch.
That's because under President Joe Biden's watch, Azerbaijan has been allowed to get away with a series of aggressions, culminating in the September 2023 destruction of the autonomous enclave of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and the forced exodus of its 120,000 ethnic Armenians.
Days later, the Hamas invasion of Israel and the subsequent chain of events, including the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria last month, seized global attention. Even now, while the world's attention is focused elsewhere, Azerbaijan appears to be plotting another attack, this one of sovereign Armenian territory.
In an interview this month, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused democratic Armenia of having a "fascist ideology" and being a "threat to the region." He said "fascism must be destroyed" and threatened that "it will be destroyed either by the Armenian leadership or by us. We have no other choice." This caused grave concerns in Armenia, which Aliyev is given to calling "Western Azerbaijan."
Aliyev's barely disguised aim is to seize the Syunik region of southern Armenia (also known as the Zangezur Corridor) and establish a land route to Turkey, its close ally. "The Zangezur corridor must and will be opened. The sooner they [Armenia] understand this, the better it is," Aliyev said this month, warning that Armenia should not "act as a geographical barrier between Turkey and Azerbaijan."

For Armenians, the Biden administration's seeming indifference toward all this has been a deep disappointment. Its neglect of the refugee crisis and failure to hold Azerbaijan accountable have clearly emboldened Aliyev aad underscore the urgent need for a stronger approach from the incoming U.S. administration. This is a moment for leadership, and the Trump administration has an opportunity to correct course.
It must make clear to Aliyev—and to NATO ally Turkey—that aggression against Armenia will not stand. It should also prioritize the right of Armenian refugees to return home under guarantees of security and justice. Without decisive action, the South Caucasus will remain a flashpoint for instability and unresolved tensions.
Artsakh is not just a geographic entity; it is a land steeped in history and early Christian heritage, once a vibrant cultural and political hub. Its capital city boasted modern institutions, historic monasteries, and a self-governing parliament. Yet, within days of the invasion, Azerbaijan dismantled it all. The region was absorbed into an administrative unit devoid of its indigenous people, while Azerbaijani settlers moved in to repopulate the area. This act of ethnic cleansing erased nearly three millennia of Armenian civilization from the region.
Azerbaijan's actions have undone decades of diplomatic efforts, including those led by the U.S. through the OSCE Minsk Group. These efforts aimed to foster coexistence between Armenians and Azerbaijanis and to find a peaceful resolution to their disputes. Instead, Aliyev, has claimed that the Artsakh question is now "resolved" by force. This dismissal of Armenian historical ties to the region ignores the profound humanitarian crisis that has ensued and sets a dangerous precedent for conflict resolution through brute force.
The international community's silence has emboldened Azerbaijan. Major world powers and the United Nations have failed to take meaningful action, allowing the violation of international law to go unchecked. Even more alarming is Azerbaijan's detention of Artsakh's political leaders, who were previously recognized as credible partners in peace negotiations. Among them is Ruben Vardanian, a renowned philanthropist and humanitarian now imprisoned on baseless charges. This persecution aims to erase Armenian leadership and representation in the region, making reconciliation even more elusive.
Beyond demanding no further aggression from Azerbaijan, the Trump administration should also take the following steps:
Demand the immediate release of Artsakh's detained leaders (and holding) Azerbaijan accountable for its violations of international law. Instead, deposed leader Ruben Vardanyan and 16 others are facing trial for "waging war" and other trumped-up charges on Friday, Jan. 17, having been given mere days to prepare. Targeting these figures and treating them this way undermines peace efforts and sets a dangerous precedent for minority communities in conflict zones.
Support the return of Armenian refugees under a framework that guarantees their safety and autonomy. International peacekeeping forces or other protective mechanisms must ensure that returning residents are shielded from aggression.
Reassert U.S. leadership in the region by reviving diplomatic efforts and pressuring Azerbaijan to respect international norms. Without U.S. engagement, the South Caucasus will remain vulnerable to further conflict and authoritarian overreach.
Sanctions should also be considered against Azerbaijani officials responsible for the ethnic cleansing and against entities exploiting Artsakh's natural resources. These measures would demonstrate that the international community will not tolerate such blatant human rights violations.
Many of us still believe peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be achieved. Yet the negotiations remain profoundly one-sided: Azerbaijan, secure in its victory, presses Armenia into untenable concessions—even amending its constitution. Thus far, U.S. engagement, steered by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has kept talks alive. But as the 2025 horizon dims and the American political stage shifts, so do the odds of success. In this rare window, the Trump administration can revitalize the process, secure a lasting accord, and transform the region's future.
This is not a call for vengeance but for justice—a justice rooted in restoring the rights and heritage of displaced Armenians. The U.S. has an opportunity to lead by example, addressing the crisis in Artsakh with the urgency it demands. The incoming administration can chart a path toward stability by ensuring the voices of displaced Armenians are heard and their rights upheld.
The writer was Armenia's ambassador to the United States and Mexico, and the deputy foreign minister.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.

Force Majeure Situation at the Shah Deniz Pipeline Persists

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 10:10:30 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

The repair of the underwater pipeline transporting condensate from the Shah Deniz field’s “Alpha” production platform in the Caspian Sea to the Sangachal terminal may extend until the end of this week, reports Turan, citing informed sources.

Previously, it was anticipated that the pipeline would resume operations, and production on the “Alpha” platform would restart on January 15. However, adverse weather conditions on January 14 delayed the process of restoring full operations at Shah Deniz. Repairs are ongoing.

According to information from Azerbaijan Gas Supply Company (AGSC), gas and condensate production at this flagship Azerbaijani field might restart by January 19 at the latest, though possibly earlier.

Meanwhile, BP, the operator of production at Shah Deniz, is making every effort to complete the technical work on the pipeline. The force majeure situation, which began on January 6, has resulted in export revenue losses, as only one production platform, “Bravo,” is currently operational.

It is worth noting that “Alpha” typically produces 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually, while “Bravo” produces 16 bcm per year.

“Shah Deniz gas exports to Europe have decreased by 8.5 million cubic meters per day. Under normal circumstances, before the force majeure, European countries received over 35 million cubic meters of gas per day from Azerbaijan, of which about 24–25 million cubic meters went to Italy. Due to the force majeure, gas buyers from Shah Deniz are relying on substitution schemes developed within Europe,” the source noted.

Prior to the technical malfunction, the combined daily production from both Shah Deniz platforms was 74–75 million cubic meters per day.

In addition to Italy, AGSC has contracts for Shah Deniz gas with Georgia, Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, North Macedonia, Hungary, and Slovakia. Romania’s contract expired in 2024 and was not renewed, while Slovakia received trial shipments in December 2024, which were also not extended.

Foreign Ministry publishes text of Armenia-U.S. Strategic Partnership Charter

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 09:01:13 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

On January 14, the signing of the Strategic Partnership Charter between the Republic of Armenia and the United States of America took place in the U.S. Department of State in Washington.
On behalf of the Republic of Armenia, the document was signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan, and on behalf of the United States, by Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The full text of the Charter is presented below.
Charter on Strategic Partnership between the Republic of Armenia and the United States of America
Preamble
The Republic of Armenia and the United States of America:
Affirm the importance of our relationship as friends and strategic partners. We intend to deepen our partnership to the benefit of both nations and expand our cooperation across a broad spectrum of mutual priorities.
Emphasize that this cooperation between our two democracies is based on shared values and common interests. These include advancing democracy and economic freedom, defending sovereignty and territorial integrity, strengthening the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, supporting innovation and technological advances, and bolstering energy security.
Stress our mutual desire to strengthen our relationship across the diplomatic, economic, energy, high-tech, educational, scientific, cultural, legal, defense, and security fields.

Section I: Principles of Partnership
This Charter is based on core basic principles and beliefs shared by both sides:
Support for each other’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity constitute the foundation of our bilateral relations.
Our friendship derives from our common commitment to democratic values and our shared belief that democracy is the chief basis for political legitimacy and therefore, stability.
Cooperation between democratic partners will help promote peace and stability.
A strong, independent, sovereign, and democratic Armenia, capable of defending its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and inviolability of internationally recognized borders is essential for lasting regional security and prosperity.
Armenia’s continued democratic and economic reforms can unleash the full creative potential of its industrious citizens and thereby catalyze prosperity throughout the region and beyond.
The United States welcomes efforts by Armenia to deepen its political, economic, security, and social ties with other nations of the Euro-Atlantic community and broader community of democracies.
A dignified and durable peace is essential for a more stable and prosperous future of the South Caucasus. The United States supports the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, including in the border delimitation process based upon the Alma Ata Declaration of 1991.
The United States supports the unblocking of regional transport communications in the South Caucasus, based on full respect for the countries’ sovereignty and jurisdiction.
Recognizing that the flow of goods and people across borders leads to interdependencies and mutual benefits for neighbors, the United States also intends to continue to advocate for the normalization of relations between Armenia and its neighbors.
Section II: Economic, Trade, Transport, and Energy Cooperation
Armenia and the United States intend to expand cooperation to enhance job creation and economic growth, support economic/market reform and liberalization, promote transport connectivity, improve the bilateral business climate, and improve market access for goods and services. We recognize that fair, worker-centered, and sustainable trade is essential to promoting resilient supply chains, equitable development, freedom, and prosperity. The United States supports Armenia’s efforts to integrate into the global economy.
Acknowledging the importance of increased trade and investment to economic growth and development, Armenia and the United States intend to identify strategic opportunities to increase bilateral trade and investment.
Recognizing the importance of a well-functioning, resilient, and secure market-oriented energy sector, Armenia and the United States intend to explore opportunities to increase and diversify Armenia’s energy production and supplies. This includes the development of a civil nuclear power program with the highest standards for nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation; efforts to enhance energy security and efficiency, including through a significant increase in the share of renewables in Armenia’s energy mix; and measures to increase Armenia’s energy connectivity to regional and European markets.
Armenia and the United States intend to initiate a working group to strengthen enforcement of export controls for dual-use goods, align policy frameworks, and share information. Armenia and the United States also intend to initiate a joint dialogue on greater access to U.S. Commerce export-controlled technology by trusted companies operating in Armenia.
Understanding the importance of trade diversification to address food security and promote economic growth, Armenia and the United States intend to explore opportunities to cooperate on areas that will support a strengthened environment for agricultural trade.
Recognizing the multifaceted challenges faced by Armenia due to its landlocked position and limited access to global trade markets, Armenia and the United States intend to deepen cooperation aimed at the integration of Armenia into wider regional transport networks and connectivity initiatives, in particular through strong political support and promotion of Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” project.

Section III: Defense and Security
The United States supports an independent, sovereign, and democratic Armenia. A peaceful South Caucasus is foundational to Armenia’s continued economic growth and democratic development, and that of the region. Defense and security cooperation between Armenia and the United States benefits both nations and the region.
Recognizing the persistence of threats to global peace and stability, Armenia and the United States intend to expand the scope of their defense and security cooperation programs, including through establishing bilateral defense consultations within the next year and assisting the Armenian military through professional military assistance training.
The United States recognizes Armenia’s important contributions to peacekeeping efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, Lebanon, and Mali. Deepening Armenia’s integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions is a mutual priority, and we plan to expand security cooperation and reform programs intended to increase Armenian interoperability and to strengthen Armenia’s defense.
Acknowledging the threat posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, Armenia and the United States plan to explore means to combat the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and dangerous technologies through adherence to international nonproliferation standards, effective enforcement of export controls, and strengthened enforcement of such controls. To this end, the United States intends to support the capacity building of the Armenian Border Guard Service and State Revenue Committee.
Recognizing the persistent threat to government, business, and the public from malicious cyber actors, Armenia and the United States intend to work towards an innovative, secure, and rights-respecting digital future. Armenia and the United States plan to continue to hold regular consultations on existing and new cyber threats.
The United States intends to continue to foster rights-respecting institutions, including by supporting Armenia’s efforts to reform and modernize its Ministry of Internal Affairs and law enforcement agencies. Such support is expected to include police education and other measures to provide for public safety, to investigate and hold accountable those responsible for abuses, and to combat transnational crime and corruption.
Section IV: Strengthening Democracy, Justice & Inclusion
Recognizing Armenia’s significant achievements to date, our two countries commit to work together to foster the rule of law buttressed by an impartial, independent judiciary, and to further strengthen freedom of expression, including for the media, good governance and accountability, public administration reform, fair and transparent electoral competition, a free and active civil society, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and anti-corruption efforts in Armenia. Armenia and the United States recognize the importance of building resilient, inclusive societies so that our governments are fully responsive to the needs of all.
Armenia and the United States plan to cooperate to bolster independent media, freedom of expression, and access to objective news and information.
Armenia and the United States plan to cooperate to strengthen Armenia’s efforts to advance the rule of law and the policy making processes in this area, including by working to increase judicial impartiality and independence, public trust, and transparency, as well as to develop Alternative Dispute Resolution mechanisms. Through enhanced law enforcement and judicial branch relationships, as well as a strengthened institutional framework for crime prevention and criminal justice, we plan to address common transnational criminal threats such as terrorism, organized crime, trafficking in persons and narcotics, money laundering, and cyber-crime.
Armenia and the United States intend to cooperate on Armenia’s anti-corruption initiatives and efforts and the policy-making process in this area, including by working to strengthen anti-corruption institutions and integrity in all areas of public services.
Armenia and the United States plan to work together to improve the legal and regulatory frameworks for human rights protections in Armenia and strengthen Armenian human rights institutions. The United States plans to support Armenia as it works to enhance its legal framework on anti-discrimination.
Armenia and the United States plan to work together to promote good governance by increasing transparency and accountability, improving public administration in Armenia, and working on effective communication of reforms, as well as expanding citizen and media access to government information in Armenia.

Armenia and the United States plan to work together to increase political pluralism and transparent, fair political competition in Armenia, including by encouraging the development of political parties, think tanks, and non-governmental organizations, supporting their participation in developing legislation and enacting reforms to create a more competitive electoral environment.
Armenia and the United States plan to work together to strengthen the capacity of Armenian civil society to develop and analyze public policy, advocate on behalf of citizen interests, participate in the legislative process, and provide oversight of public officials.

Armenia and the United States intend to fulfill their Summit for Democracy Commitments.
The United States plans to support Armenia as it implements a plan to prevent and combat all forms of human trafficking in Armenia.

Recognizing that Armenia has dealt with a displacement crisis since September 2023, the United States plans to continue to support Armenia as it provides assistance to displaced persons and refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh.

Section V: Increasing People-to-People and Cultural Exchanges
Armenia and the United States share a desire to increase our people-to- people contacts, including through the Armenian American community, and enhance our cultural, creative, educational, scientific, and professional exchange programs that promote democracy, democratic values, and the rule of law, and increase mutual understanding.
Recognizing the importance of increased contact between the people of Armenia and the United States, both sides intend to promote further cultural and social exchanges and activities through initiatives such as the Fulbright Program, the Future Leaders Exchange Program (FLEX), Undergraduate Exchange (UGRAD), Legislative Education and Practice (LEAP), the International Visitor Leadership Program, the English Language Teaching and Learning Program, and others.
Stressing the necessity of innovation and dynamism to the future of our two countries, Armenia and the United States intend to promote increased cooperation in higher education, business, and scientific research. The United States plans to facilitate the application process for U.S. visas consistent with U.S. laws and procedures so that qualified individuals in cultural, educational, business, and scientific activities are given the opportunity to participate.
Armenia and the United States acknowledge the potential of Armenia’s Academic City as a hub for academic collaboration and innovation, furthering shared goals in education and research.
Armenia and the United States intend to support joint initiatives for preservation of cultural heritage in Armenia.

Azerbaijan-Israel strategic partnership proves its worth – Aze.Media

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 07:55:57 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Aze.Media.

NAVIGATING NEW DIRECTIONS

With the opening of the Azerbaijani trade office in Israel in 2021 and the embassy in 2023, Azerbaijan-Israel strategic relations reached a new level. The partnership covers a wide range of vital areas, including energy, defence and security, transport, agriculture and the environment, water resources, culture, and advanced technology.

Science and education have become part of strategic ties in recent years. The “Program of educational cooperation between the Government of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Government of the State of Israel for the years 2023-2026” forms the basis for developing this vital field in mutual cooperation. As Azerbaijan strives to reform its education system in order to make schools future-ready and sci-tech focused, it benefits greatly from the exchange of teachers and education experts to train and learn from the Israeli experience. Cooperation on climate change, high tech-based agriculture, green energy and water are also part of the educational and scientific ties. Israel’s high tech-based economy and agriculture and its vast experience in green energy and water desalination provide Azerbaijan a unique opportunity to diversify and develop the non-oil sector of its economy, shifting the future economic model to a science-based one. When Azerbaijan liberated Karabakh, it took back control of an area roughly the size of Lebanon with much of the land destroyed. The revival of the Karabakh region based on green energy, high tech agriculture and development of water resources necessitates the close cooperation with Israel. Azerbaijani students are studying high-tech based agriculture at Israeli universities, which will enable them to develop the Karabakh region’s immense agricultural potential.

Cyber security is also part of the educational ties between the countries with staff at the Technion, a public research university based in Haifa, contributing to the training of Azerbaijani students on a Cyber Security Program.

Food security with a focus on grain is another new angle in Azerbaijan-Israel ties. Israel’s food security, and specifically its requirement for grain, will be met by Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, following the disruption to supplies as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. This will be a huge boost to both Israel’s and Azerbaijan’s food security, as Azerbaijan will receive advanced technology from Israel as part of the deal.

HUMAN BRIDGE

The high level of religious tolerance and historical lack of anti-Semitism in Azerbaijan form a strong basis for people to people relations between Azerbaijan and Israel. The village of Qırmızı Qəsəbə (Red Village) in the Quba region of Azerbaijan, home to an old community of Mountain Jews, is believed to be the world’s only all Jewish village outside of Israel and the United States. The opening of the Mountain Jews Museum in the village is also testament to the positive role of Azerbaijan in Jewish-Muslim coexistence and the promotion of harmony and tolerance. Azerbaijani Jews form a strong bond between the people of the two countries and their significant presence in Israel also promotes bilateral ties.

STRATEGIC AREAS: ENERGY

An important development in the energy sector, a key part of the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel, took place in October 2023, when Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR was granted a gas exploration licence alongside BP and Israel’s NewMed to explore an area north of Israel’s Leviathan gas field in the Mediterranean. This is a significant boost to SOCAR, increasing its role in the world energy market and introducing a new aspect to Azerbaijan-Israel energy cooperation. Around 40% of Israel’s oil imports come from Azerbaijan. Diversification of supply and non-reliance on Arab oil has been a key component of Israeli energy security over the years. Azerbaijani oil pumped to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and transported onwards to world markets forms a major source of revenue for the Azerbaijani budget and, as such, has been crucial in the modernisation of the country’s infrastructure, armed forces and the large-scale reconstruction in Azerbaijan’s liberated lands. Azerbaijan’s energy policy forms the backbone of the country’s independent foreign policy. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline bypasses both Russia and Iran and has proved a key asset following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Kazakh oil shipments for example, most of which pass through Russia, have been disrupted.

Since the Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel on 7 October 2023 and the subsequent war in Gaza, Iran has singled out the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline as well as Azerbaijan, putting them under pressure to cut off the key crude oil supply to Israel and thereby to damage the basis for Azerbaijan’s independent foreign policy. Media propaganda against Azerbaijan has been initiated by Iran and its proxies as well as by various Islamist circles in Turkey, leftist so-called NGOs financed by Western donors, and political assets such as Greta Thunberg and Qatar-financed outlets such as the Middle East Eye. The attacks reveal the range of political sides that are keen to damage and destroy the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and Azerbaijan’s independent foreign policy. Attacks against SOCAR’s HQ in Istanbul, organised by pro- Hamas Islamists and leftists with the tacit approval of circles within the Turkish government, were also part of the campaign, though did not influence Azerbaijan’s decisive stance. In other words, Azerbaijan-Israel strategic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector, stood firm in the face of attacks from various circles, geopolitical turbulence, and pressure. The incoming Trump administration should value Baku’s role in the energy security of Israel, the EU and Turkey, which are key US allies.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY

Azerbaijan and Israel have developed the defence component of their strategic partnership over the years. Israel is one of the main sources of Azerbaijan’s defence imports and modernisation of the armed forces. Azerbaijan made skilful use of Israeli defence products in liberating its lands; most notably, Israeli’s Barak 8 anti-ballistic missile defence system intercepted an Iskander missile fired from Armenia over the capital Baku. Israel too stood firm in the face of pressure during the war in 2020 and did not allow third parties to influence their defence cooperation with Baku. The defence cooperation also came under extensive media attack by pro-Armenia and pro-Iran elements who consider the Azerbaijani-Israeli defence partnership a threat to their interests. Iran has feared Azerbaijan’s growing role since Baku’s victory in the Karabakh war and the high level conduct of its armed forces. A strong Azerbaijan on its northern border is a nightmare for Iran. Tehran invested heavily for decades to keep Azerbaijan weak, but this failed badly with the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Azerbaijan-Israel defence cooperation is vital for regional security and the containment of rogue actors such as Iran, which pose an existential security threat to both countries.

AZERBAIJAN’S MEDIATORY ROLE IN THE SYRIAN THEATRE

With the fall of Bashar Al Assad’s regime in Syria, Israel and Turkey appear to have inflicted a strategic defeat on Iran. Considering the strained nature of Turkish-Israel relations due to Turkish President Erdoğan’s ideological stance backing Palestinian extremist groups such as Hamas, it is in the interests of both Israel and Turkey not to collide in Syria and to manage the risks. In this regard, Azerbaijan can play a key role in coordinating and reconciling both Israeli and Turkish interests to avoid confrontation in Syria. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s foreign policy aide Hikmet Hajiyev visited Israel in December, where he had meetings with high level Israeli officials including Foreign Minister Sa’ar and President Herzog. The trip was a positive development in reducing confrontational elements in Turkish-Israeli ties and keeping backchannel communications open. It is in Azerbaijan’s interests to reconcile or at least reduce the negative atmosphere between its two key strategic partners Israel and Turkey, with Azerbaijan playing a significant role in the recent normalisation process between the two countries. Baku also proposed setting up a trilateral regional format for strategic cooperation among Azerbaijan, Israel and Turkey before the Hamas terrorist attack derailed the fragile Israeli-Turkish ties with Erdoğan siding with Hamas.

Overall, it is worth noting that both Azerbaijan and Israel benefit strategically from their partnership in various fields. The contribution of their relationship to the security environment of the South Caucasus and the Middle East is important as it also opens new opportunities. The role of Azerbaijan in easing the tension in Turkish-Israel ties becomes more significant with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Azerbaijan and Israel have both stood firm during geopolitical crises, protecting their strategic ties and blocking third party attempts to influence them, thereby proving that their partnership is reliable and mutually beneficial.

Rufat Ahmadzada

Aliyev the wolf vs. Pashinyan the lamb: It is clear who will devour whom

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 07:16:47 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Panorama | Armenian news.

By Harut Sassounian

TheCaliforniaCourier.com

There seems to be no end to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s concessions to Azerbaijan’s demands. The only end will be the end of Armenia.

Last week, when Pres. Ilham Aliyev once again issued threats against Armenia, Pashinyan responded with further concessions. It feels like Aliyev is ruling Armenia from Baku.

Aliyev gave a lengthy press conference to the Azeri media on January 7, 2025, during which he made arrogant statements about Armenia using an extremely demeaning tone. Here are excerpts from his remarks:

— Armenia returned the four villages in the Tavoush region to Azerbaijan “as a result of a monologue rather than a dialogue.” Armenia returned these villages “under coercion.”

— “Armenia cannot compete with us in the arms race.”

— “The independent Armenian state is, in fact, a fascist state…. Therefore, fascism must be eradicated. Either the Armenian leadership will destroy it, or we will.”

— “Armenia must immediately cease arming itself. France and other countries that supply weapons to Armenia must terminate and cancel these contracts. The weapons that have already been delivered to Armenia must be returned.”

— “The dissolution of the Minsk Group and the amendment of the constitution; without these, a peace treaty is impossible.”

— “The Zangezur corridor must and will be opened.”

–“During his [Pres. Trump’s] first term, there was no issue in U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. On the contrary, the relations were very positive, and we were able to make progress in many areas. The main mistake of the Biden administration regarding Azerbaijan was that they sacrificed U.S.-Azerbaijan relations for U.S.-Armenia relations.”

— “Considering that the current territory of Armenia essentially includes the historical lands that were predominantly inhabited by Azerbaijanis, today we assert that 300,000 Western Azerbaijanis should return to those regions. However, the total number of those who have been displaced from that region, and who are now living in various parts of Azerbaijan, along with their descendants, is several times greater than 300,000.”

After members of the Armenian media complained about Pashinyan’s eerie silence about Aliyev’s threatening comments, he finally agreed to answer a few questions from Armenpress on January 8:

Pashinyan said that by making aggressive statements about Armenia, Aliyev expected a similar aggressive response from Armenia “to form the basis for a new escalation in the region. We will not take that path and we will remain committed to the strategy of peace.” Pashinyan keeps begging for peace and ignoring Aliyev’s multiple rejections. Aliyev prefers a piece of Armenia rather than a piece of paper which he will ignore even if he signs it. In this short interview, Pashinyan repeated the word peace 11 times.

When asked for his reply to Aliyev’s accusation that Armenia is “a fascist state,” Pashinyan sheepishly agreed that there is such a perception about Armenia in Azerbaijan, just as there is a similar perception about Azerbaijan in Armenia.

Regarding Aliyev’s persistent demands for an Azeri corridor through Armenia, Pashinyan once again failed to demand that, as stated in the 2020 agreement, Azerbaijan allow a reciprocal access for Armenia through Azerbaijan.

In responding to a question about Aliyev referring to the Republic of Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan,” Pashinyan simply said: Aliyev “has said nothing new about this topic for me to have a new reaction.”

Regarding Aliyev’s complaints about Armenia acquiring arms, Pashinyan stated: “no one can dispute the right of the Republic of Armenia to have a defensible army.” He then added: “we do not have an objective of militarily returning more than 200 square kilometers of occupied territories of the Republic of Armenia….”

In response to Azeri accusations of Armenia violating the ceasefire, Pashinyan repeated his proposal “to create a joint mechanism to jointly investigate each report about ceasefire violations, and draw joint conclusions.”

On January 9, Pashinyan posted on his Facebook page a lengthy statement comprised of 17 points, complying with Aliyev’s demands for concessions.

He described “Western Azerbaijan” as consisting of several towns located in the Western part of Azerbaijan, including parts of Artsakh. He falsely named cities in the Republic of Armenia as being “Western Armenia,” adding facetiously, “there is no Western Armenia beyond this and cannot be.”

He then detailed the components of “establishing lasting stability and peace in the region”:

— “Mutually abandon escalatory narratives.”

— “Continue the delimitation process.”

— “Sign a peace treaty which is 90% ready.”

— “Implement the ‘Crossroads of Peace’ project.”

— “Introduce a joint mechanism for investigating ceasefire violations.”

— “Fully resolve the issue of detained persons.”

— “Work in full intensity to locate and resolve the issue of determining the fate of those considered missing.”

— “Withdraw the claims against each other, including, but not limited to, claims in international courts.”

— “Work on the complete and effective implementation of the provisions of the peace treaty.”

— “Form a mechanism for negotiating around mutual arms control, quota allocation, and implementing restrictions on the use of armaments.”

— “Discuss in full the issues pertaining to refugees from the two countries by forming a joint professional, expert commission after the establishment of peace.”

— “Dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group.”

Some of these points are a rehash of Pashinyan’s previous proposals which Aliyev has not accepted. However, several are against Armenia’s interests, particularly: the withdrawal of mutual lawsuits in international courts and dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group. Both of these demands were dictated by Aliyev.

Israeli Leaders Blamed by Independent Inquiry for Oct. 7 Failures

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 07:06:26 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

Jared Kushner advises from afar as Ivanka Trump opts out of role in father's second term

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 06:43:31 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

Summary
Kushner running private equity firm with Mideast investments
Ivanka Trump says she is focused on family
Kushner still advising behind the scenes, briefing new Middle East envoy, source says
Jan 15 (Reuters) - Donald Trump's daughter, Ivanka Trump, and her husband Jared Kushner enjoyed largely unfettered access to Trump in his first term and were influential on a vast portfolio including Middle Eastern peace negotiations and COVID-19 vaccine development.
In the second Trump administration starting on Jan. 20, however, they say they will not take official roles, and will instead be some 1,000 miles (1,600 km) away from Washington D.C. in their Miami home.
Kushner, originally a real estate scion, now runs a private equity firm fueled by investments from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Ivanka Trump, meanwhile, has eschewed politics and has said she wants to focus on her three children.
However, Kushner remains involved behind the scenes, advising on Trump's Middle Eastern strategy, helping select appointees and guiding certain cabinet members through the transition, according to one source familiar with his work.
Kushner is "very, very close" to Trump's incoming chief-of-staff, Susie Wiles, and speaks to her regularly, the source said. Kushner is also involved with some hiring - for example working with incoming Attorney General Pam Bondi to help find a new Federal Bureau of Prisons director, the source added.
And Kushner, who helped broker a series of normalization agreements between Israel and Arab nations, has been advising Steve Witkoff, a longtime Trump friend and donor, on his new job as special envoy to the Middle East.
"He's been focusing on getting Steve up to speed on the file and helping Steve with strategy," the source added.
A representative for Witkoff did not respond to a request for comment.
With the Trump administration expected to pursue the goal of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia under an expansion of the 2020 Abraham Accords, Kushner is likely to play an important role behind the scenes on the Middle East.
"As a former ambassador, I can tell you that if I were doing anything in the Middle East, the first person I would go to would be Jared," said Ed McMullen, a prominent Trump fundraiser and his former ambassador to Switzerland.
Ethics experts, Democrats and even some Republicans have expressed concern that the Middle Eastern investments - which include $2 billion from Saudi Arabia - in Kushner's firm present conflicts of interest since he worked on regional issues in the White House, a view Kushner says is wrong and politically motivated.
Reuters reported in October that Kushner had discussed U.S.-Saudi diplomatic negotiations involving Israel with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman multiple times since leaving the Trump White House.
Following the Reuters story, Democratic lawmakers asked the U.S. attorney general to appoint a special counsel to investigate whether Kushner was functioning as an unregistered foreign agent for Saudi Arabia.
Kushner, who says there is no conflict of interest with his investments, dismissed the letter as "silly political stunts."
Thanks in part to his firm Affinity Partners, Forbes estimates Kushner is close to becoming a billionaire.
Spokespeople for Kushner and Ivanka Trump, as well as the Trump transition team, did not respond to requests for comment.
LESS FAMILY, MORE TRUSTED AIDES
Trump does not appear to need his family for advice as much as in the past because of trusted aides like Wiles, who helped to run the most disciplined of his election campaigns to date.
"Trump has a much more professional operation around him," said David Kochel, a Republican strategist.
Kushner and Ivanka Trump were involved in a large remit of issues during Trump's 2017-2021 administration, with Kushner's portfolio including brokering a new North American trade agreement with tougher rules on labor and automotive content, and helping North America land the 2026 soccer World Cup. Ivanka also successfully advocated for an expansion of the child tax credit and paid parental leave for federal workers.
Kushner is due to remain focused on business, with Affinity Partners recently raising an additional $1.5 billion from the Qatar Investment Authority and Abu Dhabi investor Lunate, he said in late December.
"I made very clear to them," Kushner added, "that in the event that Trump was elected, that they should not expect anything from me for that," Kushner said on the Invest Like the Best podcast.
On a recent episode of The Skinny Confidential Him & Her Podcast, Ivanka Trump said she had eschewed another White House stint to prioritize time with her three children. She said she was looking forward to supporting Trump as a daughter rather than an adviser this time around.
Ivanka Trump's Instagram features photos of luxury vacations, glamorous nights out in Miami, and her playing polo and surfing.
Trump's sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump are also not expected to join him in official White House roles. Don Jr., his eldest son, has joined conservative venture capital fund 1789 Capital, while Eric Trump runs the Trump Organization, Donald Trump's family business.
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Reporting by Alexandra Ulmer, editing by Ross Colvin and Deepa Babington
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Russian missile attack forces Ukraine to shut down power grid

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 06:42:00 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia on Wednesday launched a major ballistic and cruise missile attack on regions across Ukraine, targeting energy production and compelling authorities to shut down the power grid in some areas despite freezing winter weather, officials said.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that it launched a strike on “critically important facilities of gas and energy infrastructure that ensure the functioning of Ukraine’s military industrial complex.” It didn’t give the target locations or other details.
The barrage came a day after the Russian Defense Ministry vowed a response to what it said was an attack on Russian soil using multiple Western-supplied missiles.
Kyiv hasn’t confirmed that attack, though it said Tuesday that it hit an oil refinery and a fuel storage depot, a chemical plant producing ammunition and two anti-aircraft missile systems, in a missile and drone attack that reached around 1,100 kilometers (almost 700 miles) into Russia.

Long-range attacks have been a feature of the nearly three-year war, where on the front line snaking about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) from northeast to southern Ukraine, the armies have been engaged in a war of attrition. Russia has been advancing on the battlefield over the past year, though its progress has been slow and costly.

Russia attacked Ukraine with 43 missiles and 74 drones overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force said. A total of 30 missiles and 47 drones were shot down, and 27 drones failed to reach their target, it said.

The Russian missiles sought out targets from the Lviv region in western Ukraine near Poland to Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine bordering Russia. The state energy company Ukrenergo reported emergency power outages in six regions. It often shuts down production during attacks as a precaution.
“The enemy continues to terrorize Ukrainians,” Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko wrote on Facebook.

Electricity supplies resumed to households in some areas by the middle of the day, but Ukrenergo urged customers to avoid using power-hungry electrical appliances.
Russia has repeatedly tried to cripple Ukraine’s power grid, denying the country heat, electricity and running water in an effort to break the Ukrainian spirit. The attacks have also sought to disrupt Ukraine’s defense manufacturing industry.
Last September, the U.N. refugee agency reported that Ukraine had lost more than an estimated 60% of its energy generation capacity.
Ukrainian authorities try to rebuild their power generation after the attack, though the barrages have eroded production. Western partners have been helping Ukraine rebuild.
“It is the middle of the winter, and Russia’s goal remains unchanged: our energy infrastructure,” Zelenskyy said on Telegram.
He urged Western partners to accelerate the delivery to Ukraine of promised air defense weapons, emphasizing that “promises have been made but not yet fully realized.”
___
Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

BREAKING: Armenia and U.S. Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 15:46:55 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Asbarez.com.

The United States signed a strategic partnership agreement with Armenia on Tuesday, marking a milestone in relations between the two countries.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan signed the agreement during a ceremony in Washington.

In remarks after the signing of the document, Blinken explained that the strategic partnership agreement will aim to broaden economic, security, defense and democracy development cooperation with Armenia in international relations.

“We are establishing a US-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission. This Commission gives us framework to expand our bilateral cooperation in a number of key areas economic matters, security and defense, democracy, justice..” Blinken said.

The Secretary of State also said that the U.S. is working with Armenia to strengthen its sovereignty and defense of territorial integrity.

Blinken announced that next week a special team of border security agents will travel to Armenia in order to coordinate the defense of Armenia’s borders.

“Next week, a special border security team will go to Armenia to carry out joint border security works. We will strengthen the relevant security works,” Blinken explained.

“We have done tremendous work in a short period of time under the auspices of an excellent partnership. Thus, we can record an important cornerstone achievement in Armenia-US relations: we are establishing a Strategic Partnership Commission,” he added.

Speaking about Armenian-American economic and energy cooperation, Blinken said, “We are currently moving toward negotiations on peaceful nuclear security and nuclear energy.”

Mirzoyan expressed gratitude for Washington’s efforts in supporting the territorial integrity of Armenia and the independence of the Republic of Armenia. He said Yerevan remains committed to the peace agenda and to working closely with the U.S.

“The Armenia-U.S. Strategic Partnership Charter provides a solid foundation and makes our cooperation more ambitious. It covers various areas, including strengthening economic and energy ties, improving communications, deepening defense and security cooperation, enhancing democratic institutions, promoting justice and the rule of law, developing innovations and high technologies, and expanding people-to-people contacts,” said Mirzoyan.

Mirzoyan emphasized that relations between Armenia and the United States, grounded in shared values and mutual interests, have significantly developed in recent years.”They have reached a level where the establishment of a strategic partnership not only reflects current realities but is also crucial in the context of operating in complex geopolitical conditions,” he added. The Armenian Foreign Minister thanked U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his team for their efforts in advancing cooperation between the two countries to a new level.

“We deeply appreciate the United States’ steadfast support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia,” Mirzoyan said, adding that official Yerevan is ready to work with the incoming U.S. administration.

Armenian and American officials, led by Mirzoyan and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien, held a U.S.-Armenia meeting in Yerevan last year, after which they announced the advancement of the status of the strategic dialogue to a strategic partnership.

The Downing of the Azeri Plane—A Lesson for Relations in the Post-Soviet Space | INSS

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 10:46:35 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

INSS Insight No. 1932, January 14, 2025
The circumstances of the downing of a plane belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines and the official responses by Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan highlight the complex and dynamic nature of Russia’s relations with its neighboring countries in the post-Soviet era. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and other countries in Central Asia would like to reduce their dependence on Russia, Moscow’s current economic weakness—a result of the international sanctions imposed on it—has made it increasingly reliant on these countries. This dynamic has allowed them to demand that Russia treat them with more respect while they also benefit from Russia’s economic dependence on them. The Azeri plane incident also underscores the gradual decline of Russian influence in the post-Soviet space, as other players take its place.

A passenger jet of Azerbaijan’s national airline en route from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny, the capital city of Chechnya, crashed near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan on December 25, 2024, after being hit by a missile from the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system. According to Russia’s assertions (of dubious credibility), the Russian air defense systems were being used against Ukrainian drones at the time that the Azeri plane was attempting to land in Grozny. The Russian aviation authorities, however, failed to warn the Azeri plane’s crew to avoid the area, causing the plane to be hit. In addition, Russian aviation authorities rejected requests by the plane’s crew to land at nearby airports and instead referred the plane to Aktau, on the other side of the Caspian Sea, where the plane crash-landed. The circumstances of the downing of the plane and the series of official responses to the incident, especially by Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, have brought to light the complex and dynamic nature of the relations between Russia and its neighboring countries in the post-Soviet space.

As expected, the Russian authorities’ initial response was total silence. In contrast, Russia’s official media began spreading false reports that the plane had collided with birds, leading to the crash. This pattern of immediate denial and spreading false reports is typical of Russian policy in situations of this type, as happened following the downing of the Malaysian plane in 2014 by Russian forces in the airspace over Donbas. This time, however, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev made three public demands of Russia: apologizing for the incident, taking responsibility for it and bringing those guilty to trial, as well as compensating the Azeri airline and its passengers. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who usually demonstrates arrogance and contempt in such situations, apologized for “the tragic incident that occurred in Russian airspace during attacks by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.” Furthermore, after Aliyev made it clear that this apology was inadequate, Putin initiated a second conversation with the Azeri president in an effort to ease the tension between the two countries.

Behind the Azeri president’s boldness are weighty factors and circumstances involving the balance of the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. Bilateral relations between the two countries have reached a new level of closeness in recent years, prompted by Russia’s international isolation and dire economic straits. At the same time, the Kremlin has become increasingly uneasy with the dysfunctional Armenian government headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. In effect, Russia has abandoned Armenia, having recalculated the benefits gained from relations with Azerbaijan—something that Armenia regards as tantamount to treason—thus allowing Azerbaijan to achieve victory in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. Azerbaijan’s triumph has created a new situation in the Caucasus, in which Russia recognizes Baku’s more independent stance, while Turkey is increasing its influence in the region alongside Russia. In 2024, the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan met frequently to discuss economic cooperation, particularly in the field of energy. It seems that in Azerbaijan, there is a sense that Russia’s reliance on their economic cooperation has increased, effectively bolstering President Aliyev’s confidence.

In addition to its growing military and political power, Azerbaijan is taking advantage of its oil and natural gas resources to develop substantial cooperation in the energy sector with the European Union, despite the political tensions with France. The war between Russia and Ukraine has reduced the supply of Russian gas to Europe and enhanced the importance of the Azeri gas pipeline—the Southern Gas Corridor—which passes through Turkey to Europe. Given the failure to renew the agreement for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine (the agreement expired on December 31, 2024), the European Union has been considering a number of alternatives to increase Azeri gas exports to Europe. Among the options considered is the possible indirect inclusion of Russia in the new export format, which would enable Russia to expand its gas exports to Turkey instead of Europe. Azerbaijan would play a key role in realizing this option. The plan includes classifying the Russian gas that reaches Europe as Azeri gas and designating Azeri gas that reaches Turkey as Russian gas. It should be noted that in 2023, Russian gas corporation Gazprom posted its first loss since 1999. This dealt a harsh blow to the Russian state budget and bolstered Putin’s motivation to appease Aliyev in order to obtain his consent to include Russia in the emerging export plan.

As a result of the crash-landing of the Azeri plane in the city of Aktau, another country in the post-Soviet space—Kazakhstan—has been forced to deal with the sensitive incident involving its two important neighbors. The Kazakh aviation authorities have been reluctant to ascertain the circumstances surrounding the plane crash, opting to leave the decision to the Brazilian aerospace manufacturer to avoid a potential dispute with Russia and Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan’s caution in this matter can be attributed to its dependence on both countries. Russia is one of Kazakhstan’s most important trading partners, with about 80% of Kazakh oil exports passing through Russia. This economic dependence is compounded by fear of Russia’s military power—despite having been somewhat weakened by its military failures in Ukraine—which remains a salient concern, especially given the repeated statements by Russian nationalists threatening to occupy the northern part of Kazakhstan.

Concurrently, the Kazakh authorities are undertaking measures to diversify their trading partners and explore alternative oil export routes, with the Azeri Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline playing a critical role in these efforts. In contrast to Azerbaijan, which has formed a strategic alliance with Turkey and has sought to distance itself from Russia, Kazakhstan’s substantial dependence on Russia necessitates a more circumspect policy. Nevertheless, even cautious Kazakhstan joined Azerbaijan and other countries, including Israel and the United Arab Emirates, in suspending flights to Russia by their national airlines following the crash of the Azeri plane. Furthermore, the presidents of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, two countries that also have complex relations with Russia, personally extended their condolences to the president of Azerbaijan. In this context, it should be noted that beyond their shared challenges concerning Russia, there are signs of increasing solidarity among the Turkish peoples in Central Asia and Azerbaijan, with Turkey positioned as one of the primary beneficiaries of these processes.

The plane incident highlights the dynamic relations between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, the latter being seen as a defeat for Russia and a victory for Turkey. Russia’s diminished influence has emboldened Azerbaijan, enabling it to display considerable self-confidence and engage in dialogue with Russia on more equal terms. Taking a more cautious stance, Kazakhstan has refrained from automatically aligning with Russia and has not given Russia preference over Azerbaijan. These developments are further eroding Russia’s role as the dominant power in the region.

At the same time, while Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries are working to reduce their reliance on Russia, they are not seeking to completely disengage from it. Rather, they are demanding, as Tajikistan’s President Rahmon stated in 2022, that Russia treat them “with respect.” Russia’s current weakness, exacerbated by international sanctions, has given these countries leverage to assert their demands while concurrently capitalizing on Russia’s growing economic dependence on them. Azerbaijan has gone further by positioning itself as a potential partner in Syria’s reconstruction. Under Turkish sponsorship, it is upgrading its relations with the new regime in Syria, taking advantage of Russia’s loss of influence in the region and is reopening its embassy in Damascus after 12 years.

The downing of the Azeri plane also provides a unique glimpse into the complex relationship between Russia’s President Putin and the Chechen Republic, led by Ramzan Kadyrov. The Azeri airliner was struck by fire from the Pantsir-S1 air defense system, which was stationed in Chechnya following a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on military facilities there. The Pantsir-S1, an advanced short-range air defense system, has also been stationed in Moscow, in Valdai and Sochi to protect Putin’s palaces, as well as in eastern Ukraine. Its deployment now in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, highlights the priority that Putin is giving to his relations with Chechnya’s leader, Kadyrov.

Despite the involvement of Chechen aviation authorities—under Kadyrov’s control—in shooting down the Azeri airliner, Putin has refrained from holding Kadyrov or his allies accountable. This attitude reflects the close relationship between Putin and Kadyrov over the past two decades, during which the Russian federal government has given Kadyrov enormous budgets and has allowed him to establish Chechen military units under his exclusive authority. Kadyrov’s mercenaries have clashed with Russian federal law enforcement multiple times, and Kadyrov himself has publicly excoriated their leaders, without repercussions, thanks to the Kremlin’s support. Furthermore, Putin has continued to give special attention to Chechnya and has supported Kadyrov’s policies, including the Islamization of the republic; during a recent visit to Grozny, Putin publicly kissed the Qur’an. Putin appears to value Kadyrov’s blind personal loyalty to him as invaluable, making it unlikely that he would risk alienating Kadyrov by holding him or his men accountable, even to placate Azerbaijan’s president.

Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has further exposed the incompetence of the Russian army, which remains unable to defeat Ukraine after three years of conflict. Concentrating all of Russia’s forces on the Ukrainian front has now enabled slow progress, but it has also undermined its military presence in Syria, a factor that contributed to the overthrow of the Assad regime. The Azeri airliner incident also underscores Russia’s waning influence in the post-Soviet space, with other powers, notably Turkey, taking its place. Domestically, the special status of Kadyrov in Chechnya and his private army are both indicative of Putin’s inclination to strengthen his own “Praetorian Guard,” amid his government’s failures.

In January 2024, as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, he is likely to encounter a different Putin from the one he knew during his first term in office: a president who is not a winner, but rather marked by successive defeats, who has been backed into a corner and threatens to adopt desperate measures. Israel should also consider these developments as it revises its policy toward Russia.

The opinions expressed in INSS publications are the authors’ alone.

Trump Shares Video Of Academic Arguing ‘Dark Son Of A B*tch’ Netanyahu Urged US Into ‘Phony Wars’ In Iraq And Syria

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 08:55:21 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Trump Shares Clip Of Academic Slamming Israeli PM Netanyahu.

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

President-elect Donald Trump shared a blistering critique of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by economics professor Jeffrey Sachs that blasts the leader for having dragged the United States into “phony wars” in Iraq and Syria.

Trump posted the clip to Truth Social just hours after his whirlwind press conference on Tuesday during which he repeated his desire to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland as well as warning of “hell” to pay if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages taken during the October 7 attack by the time he returns to the White House.

In the clip, which splices together portions of the academic’s remarks to the soundtrack of sci-fi film Interstellar, Sachs can be heard calling out previous Washington administrations for using “lies and deceit” to manufacture citizen backing for overseas conflicts before rounding on Netanyahu’s influence on U.S. foreign policy.

The 70-year-old academic, who has made guest appearances in recent months on MAGA podcasts, including Tucker Carlson’s show, held nothing back in the footage. He highlighted U.S. actions in Syria, alleging covert efforts to overthrow Bashar al-Assad before Russian involvement while slamming mainstream media outlets, like the New York Times, for failing to properly report on it.

The war in Syria, and you may actually hear from grown-up reporters who are lying through their teeth or ignorant beyond imagining, ‘That, oh, the war in Syria, yes, Russia intervened in Syria.’ Well, do you know that [former President Barack] Obama tasks the CIA to overthrow the Syrian government starting four years before Russia intervened?

What kind of nonsense is that, and how many times did the New York Times report on Operation Timber Sycamore? Which was the presidential order to the CIA to overthrow Bashar al-Assad? Three times in 10 years.

Turning to the 2003 Iraq invasion, Sachs accused Washington of manufacturing public consent through “focus groups” before pivoting to blame Netanyahu:

They actually did focus groups in the fall of 2002 to find out what would sell that war to the American people… It was a phony war. Where did that war come from? You know what it’s quite surprising; that war came from Netanyahu, actually.

He added that Netanyahu devised a strategy to topple governments backing Hamas and Hezbollah—namely Iraq, Syria, and Iran:

He’s a deep dark son of a bitch, sorry to tell you… So what is this democracy versus dictatorship? Come on, these are not even sensible terms.

Trump’s decision to share the video comes only months after he hosted Netanyahu and his wife at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, where both leaders appeared cordial, and weeks before he is set to return to the world stage as president.

Зеленский призвал союзников выполнять договоренности по поставкам оружия

Sun, 12 Jan 2025 12:07:47 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from ГОЛОС АМЕРИКИ.

Президент Украины отметил, что решения, принятые на саммите НАТО в Вашингтоне, а также на встречах в Рамштайне относительно поставок систем ПВО для Украины, до сих пор не реализованы в полной мере

Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский в воскресенье призвал союзников выполнить все данные ими обещания по поставкам оружия, в том числе для противодействия российским воздушным ударам.
Зеленский заявил, что за последнюю неделю российские войска нанесли сотни ударов по Украине, было использовано около 700 авиабомб и более 600 ударных беспилотников.
Украинские ПВО сбили 60 из 94 беспилотников, запущенных Россией за ночь, сообщили в воскресенье в ВВС Украины. В сообщении говорится, что 34 беспилотника были «потеряны», что означает использование Украиной средств радиоэлектронной борьбы для перенаправления российских беспилотников.
«Каждую неделю российская война продолжается только потому, что российская армия сохраняет способность терроризировать Украину и использовать свое превосходство в небе», – написал Зеленский в своем телеграм-канале.
Он призвал союзников Украины выполнять уже достигнутые договоренности.
«Решения, принятые на саммите НАТО в Вашингтоне, а также на встречах в Рамштайне относительно ПВО для Украины, до сих пор не реализованы в полной мере», – сказал Зеленский.
На этой неделе лидер Украины заявил, что обсудил с партнерами и Соединенными Штатами возможность предоставления Украине лицензий на производство систем ПВО и ракет.

Top Azerbaijani diplomat: Armenia holds the key to lasting peace with Azerbaijan – Aze.Media

Sat, 11 Jan 2025 11:33:54 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Aze.Media.

The peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have progressed much since Baku took back control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. All progress was made possible through bilateral context and negotiations; instead of continuing on this path, Armenia insists on inviting more parties to the negotiation table. It remains unclear when Yerevan will cut the knot on changing its constitution with a territorial claim on Nagorno-Karabakh. “Armenia holds the key to lasting peace with us”, a top diplomat from Azerbaijan said.

“15 of 17 articles of the peace agreement between our two countries have been agreed upon, and negotiations are continuing about two outstanding articles”, the diplomat continued on the condition of anonymity to The Liberum. “Our primary concern is not the peace agreement itself but the continuous presence in the Armenian constitution and the territorial claim of Azerbaijani land.

He added: “Bilateral talks proved to be much more result-oriented and successful than any other format that existed for decades before but brought zero results. “Despite all the progress made, Armenia insists on holding on to institutions like the Minsk Group.”

The comments were made on the sidelines of the annual meeting organised by The European Network for Azerbaijani Studies (ENAS) and the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), an international affairs think tank. A tradition launched three years ago in which senior international diplomats, scholars and other experts are invited to discuss significant developments in Azerbaijan and the South Caucuses.

The Liberum was honoured to be invited to this year’s edition.

The senior diplomat, who was present in the past four years at all the significant rounds at the negotiation table, emphasised that it was ‘unfortunate’ that his Armenian counterparts still do not have a clear vision or picture of what they will do with the constitution: “Nikol Pashinyan said that the Armenian government is planning to deal with the issue of the Armenian constitution because they plan to make changes to the constitution, which is part of a broader agenda.

He added: “Pashinyan referred to 2027. In our part of the world, when you say that I am going to the Taiwan issue in three years, it means that I’m not interested enough to deal with this. If this is not fixed, any agreement we sign will be void, no matter the arrangement made from the signing.”

The diplomat raises a fair point by elaborating on this challenge. No international commitment and no international allegations can contradict your constitution, or any other act adopted by a referendum.

Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been crippled for over 30 years by the long-standing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The enclave became a focal point of conflict during the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s when Armenia seized control of the enclave and surrounding territories, resulting in more than thirty thousand casualties and displacing hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis.

After three decades of diplomatic efforts failed to yield a political settlement, Azerbaijan decided to revert to using force. In 2020, in a six-week war, it regained complete control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Initially, Moscow brokered a ceasefire, but when negotiations failed again to resolve the status of the enclave, Azerbaijan reclaimed the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh three years later in a military strike carried out Sept. 19–20, 2023, displacing more than 100,000 Armenians who fled as they refused to accept Baku’s jurisdiction.

Minsk Group & border

The Minsk Group has tried unsuccessfully to resolve this protracted conflict since 1992; Azerbaijan considers the group ‘totally dead’ since no funding or activity has been seen in the past four years. The “Minsk Group” of the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) in Europe acted as a mediator in the conflict involving the former Soviet region, to no avail.
The status of the Minsk Group remains quite tenuous. Armenia continues to insist on its relevance and insists on maintaining the group’s involvement. Baku, given that the situation has been resolved in a draft peace agreement that respects each country’s territorial integrity, sees it as an institute that slows the peace negotiations.

In addition, co-chairs of the Minsk Group (Russia, France, and the United States) are currently unable to collaborate effectively, complicating any potential role they might play in future negotiations.

The diplomat emphasised many positive developments regarding the demarcation and state border. The commissions, led by the deputy prime ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, made huge progress this April. For the first time in history, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to limit and demarcate a piece of state border (13 km).

“This is the first time a positive outcome was achieved based on the negotiation. And this part was, by the way, very sensitive because in this part, in this specific kilometre, Armenia actually occupied some part of Azerbaijani territory for villages, and this situation was resolved peacefully”, he said.

For those interested, it’s advisable to research the history of the conflict to understand better what happened last year. Studying the 1993 UN Security Council Resolutions (822, 853, 874 and 884) is essential in that perspective. Faced with the prospect of rule by Azerbaijan, tens of thousands of Armenians, most of whom were illegally occupying Azerbaijani land, fled back to Armenia.

Negotiations will resume in early 2025.

By Arthur Blok

Azerbaijan’s Aliyev sees potential alignment with Trump, criticises Biden administration

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 07:06:11 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has accused outgoing US President Joe Biden of favouring Armenia, and expressed hope for a renewed strategic dialogue after US president-elect Donald Trump returns to office.

Political observers note that Aliyev’s comments signal frustration over perceived double standards from the current US leadership, a theme frequently voiced by the Azerbaijani president. Speaking to local TV channels on January 7, he also criticised EU members, in particular France, for “interference”. The message was similar to that conveyed by Aliyev in an interview with Russia’s Rossiya Segodnya agency in December, in which he signalled his alignment with Trump and other rightwing, illiberal leaders.

Commenting on Washington’s role in the region, Aliyev argued that the Biden administration has “undermined ties” by favouring Armenia, contrasting this stance with “positive cooperation” under former presidents Bill Clinton, George Bush and Trump.

“They [the current US administration] champion Ukraine’s territorial integrity but criticise us for restoring our own,” he said.

Aliyev insisted that equitable engagement would enhance stability in the South Caucasus, calling for consistency in the application of international law. He highlighted past collaboration with US security and intelligence agencies as a model for future partnerships.

He concluded by saying an improved Azerbaijan-US relationship could bring concrete benefits to both sides if mutual respect prevails.

Despite energy partnerships with the EU, Aliyev criticised Brussels for providing arms funding to Armenia through what he termed a “so-called peace facility”. He also faulted French President Emmanuel Macron for “constant interference” and attempts to boycott COP29.

“We are ready for dialogue but only based on mutual respect,” he said, suggesting that unilateral policies undermine the EU’s credibility in the region.

Analysts point out that Azerbaijan is currently a key gas supplier to multiple EU member states, making stable relations a mutual interest. Aliyev said that trust is essential: while Azerbaijan remains open to cooperation on trade and energy, it will not tolerate initiatives that weaken its security. Observers believe the stark differences on the Armenia issue could hamper deeper EU-Azerbaijan integration if not addressed. Still, Aliyev reiterated that constructive engagement, especially in the energy sector, could yield tangible rewards if executed fairly.

Embassy attack

On Iran, Aliyev condemned an attack on Azerbaijan’s Tehran embassy as “organised terror” and demanded accountability for an Iranian cleric’s vitriolic remarks.

Emphasising that “no one should interfere in our affairs,” he presented Azerbaijan as an emerging regional power ready to strengthen its defence if neighbours opt for rearmament.

The president said Tehran’s failure to rein in provocative acts could spur further tensions, although he reiterated Azerbaijan’s interest in preserving good-neighbourly ties.

Defence analysts suggest Baku’s commitment to ramping up security is a direct response to perceived threats from multiple directions, not just Iran. Aliyev implied that any repeat of terror incidents would prompt a far stronger diplomatic and security response. The president said that maintaining sovereignty is Azerbaijan’s top priority, and hostile rhetoric or actions would be met firmly.

Karabakh reconstruction

Aliyev cited the liberation of Karabakh, which was under Armenian control until it was retaken by Azerbaijani forces, as a turning point that allows Azerbaijan to chart its own course without undue external pressure. He reiterated that assertive nationhood, bolstered by military victories, is helping Azerbaijan stand confidently on the global stage.

“Our victory in 2020 changed everything,” Aliyev said, calling it both a source of national pride and a driver of policy independence.

Officials within his administration highlight ongoing reconstruction efforts in former conflict zones, with roughly 10,000 people already resettled in newly rebuilt towns and villages.

The president urged foreign investors to seize new opportunities in infrastructure, green energy and technology within Karabakh.

Azerbaijan’s 2024 economic growth exceeded 4%, with the non-oil sector expanding by over 6%. Aliyev reported a rise in foreign exchange reserves to $72bn, while external debt stands at 7.2% of GDP—factors he said boost the country’s fiscal resilience.

Aliyev stressed that a stable macroeconomic environment would attract more foreign investment, particularly in industrial and high-tech sectors. He attributed these gains to ongoing structural reforms aimed at curbing corruption and fostering transparency.

The president urged Azerbaijani companies to take advantage of global trends, citing digital transformation as a major opportunity. Independent analysts say Azerbaijan’s diversified economic model has significantly reduced reliance on oil and gas exports, creating a more balanced outlook. Aliyev wrapped up his remarks on the economy by pledging continued support for private enterprise and job creation across the country.

Will Azerbaijan join the games of the West against Russia and Iran?: EADaily

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 14:09:40 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from EADaily:все новости.

Russia inherited damaged relations with Azerbaijan from 2024 to 2025. The formal reason for this was the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane on December 25 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. This plane was heading from Baku in Terrible.

Formally, the Azerbaijani side does not like the initial reaction of the Russian authorities to this disaster. Baku blames the incident on Russia. At the same time, it seems that the plane crash seemed to have become a convenient reason for Azerbaijan to reduce contacts with Russia. And first of all it concerns air traffic. Again, the formal reason is security. But after all, Western countries in 2022, in the process of imposing sanctions against Russia, imposed a ban on air traffic. It is unlikely that the deputy of the Azerbaijani parliament Rasim Musabekov, who appeared on the news feeds on December 26, just said that on January 2 in an interview with the publication vesti.az:

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"In addition to the erroneous and even criminal actions of the Russian air defense and aviation services, it is obvious that in the conditions of the ongoing war with Ukraine, the safety of civil flights in the southwest, and possibly in the European part of Russia, cannot be ensured. It is no coincidence that Azerbaijan has canceled regular flights to 10 Russian cities. Similar decisions were made by the airlines of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Israel. Regardless of the outcome of the investigation into the incident with the Azerbaijani airliner, the situation with flight safety in Russia remains relevant."

Here's an example of an Overton window. Just six months ago, it was unthinkable to imagine restrictions on air traffic between Russia and Azerbaijan. And now it has become a reality because of the plane crash that occurred. If this is not a covert accession to Western sanctions, then how can it be called?

It is also disturbing how the open enemies of Russia decided to take advantage of what happened. So, on December 28, the usurper Vladimir Zelensky called the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. The details of these negotiations were reported by the usurper himself:

"I had a conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and expressed condolences to him and the Azerbaijani people in connection with the horrific crash of Azerbaijani Airlines flight J2−8243. We noted the heroism of the pilots and the entire crew of the aircraft. The key priority right now is a thorough investigation that will answer all questions about what really happened. Russia should provide clear explanations and stop spreading disinformation. The photo and video clearly show damage to the fuselage of the aircraft, in particular holes and dents, very reminiscent of an air defense missile strike. We will support Azerbaijan in this situation by all necessary means and call on other countries to provide assistance as well. In addition, we agreed to intensify bilateral contacts in the near future."

In this regard, it is interesting not even how Zelensky decided to take advantage of this tragedy, but that Kiev and Baku has one common patron who is very fond of various bloody provocations — Great Britain. Moreover, we can observe how the Western and Azerbaijani media in the whole story of the plane crash near Aktau simply hushed up one of the factors that definitely does not contribute to safe air traffic — the strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including using UAVs, on the territory of Russia. And this is also understandable, because the plane crash that took place is being actively used to ensure that, despite the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan does not take it into its head to get closer to Russia.

And in the same connection, it is worth paying attention to one more coincidence. Deputy Musabekov, who commented on the plane crash in 2023, was saddened by the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive (see In Azerbaijan, saddened by the military failures of Ukraine). And on November 2, 2024 Musabekov in an interview vesti.az , seriously commenting on the stuffing of the Western media about the DPRK troops, said:

"Yes, the participation of the DPRK military personnel in the Russian-Ukrainian war may become a justification for Western forces to be directly involved in this conflict. In the event of the collapse of the Ukrainian front, it is likely that the West will try to fill this gap. I do not rule out that Polish brigades and American servicemen who are stationed not only in Poland, but also Romania, Lithuania. Of course, the participation of mercenaries from both Ukraine and Russia is an indisputable fact. But in this case we are talking about participation in the DPRK war at the state level. Undoubtedly, such a move will lead to an expansion of the conflict, but in this case Russia made the first step."

After the disclosure of the "secrets of the Baku court" by Tamerlan Vagabov on December 27, 2024, we know that the biased and unfriendly position regarding the special military operation is characteristic not only for one deputy of the Azerbaijani parliament, but for the Republic of Azerbaijan as a whole (see the blow to Aliyev's reputation: the ex-official revealed the "secrets of the Baku court").

But the matter was not limited to Ukraine alone. On December 30, the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, called Aliyev, who did not fail to criticize Russia and said:

"Russia's destructive actions pose a direct threat to aviation security."

At the same time, and Aliyev discussed the situation in Transcaucasia, and on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the President of Lithuania promised that the Baltic state would develop relations with the Transcaucasian country through culture and university cooperation. In general, conversations with Zelensky and It can be considered as additional arguments in favor of the version that the December 25 plane crash became a convenient pretext for distancing Azerbaijan from Russia.

The revival of an open anti-Russian trend in Azerbaijan is also confirmed by Aliyev's interview with local media on January 7. So, in this interview it sounded:

"... Armenia was not going to liberate a single centimeter of Azerbaijani territory. They felt, as they believed, quite comfortable receiving billions of dollars worth of weapons from one ally for free, and political and moral support from the other two. And thus, all three Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group during the period for which I am responsible were unequivocally on the side of the occupier... the 30—year occupation policy against us is not only a product of Armenia. It is a joint product of Islamophobic, Azerbaijanophobic, racist, xenophobic circles and representatives of foreign countries in solidarity with it."

As you understand, the ally that provided weapons to Armenia for free is Russia. It should also be noted that, criticizing George Soros and the Joe Biden administration, Aliyev spoke very flatteringly in an interview about Donald Trump, who won the US presidential election, who was initially the preferred candidate for Baku (see Azerbaijan hopes for Donald Trump's victory). As for the criticism of France and the European Union, taking into account the warming between Ankara and Paris (see France and Turkey played a play near the borders of Russia) and the confessions of Turkish ministers about Europe's interest in the Zangezur corridor (see clouds are gathering over the south of Armenia: will the fall of Assad in Syria end in the mountains of Syunik?) We would not take Aliyev's criticism of them at face value. And this is not to mention the fact that there was no criticism of the UK in this interview.

But in this interview, Iran got from Aliyev. Thus, he accused Iran of disrespect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.:

"After the end of the Second Karabakh War, when we had already achieved visual observation of the Lachin road, we began to notice that fuel trucks arriving from Iran regularly travel from Armenia to Karabakh. I gave instructions to my assistant, and he contacted the then Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan by phone and said that this should be stopped. We don't want to make it public, we just ask you to stop it. This is not good, we see it, this is our territory. You are doing illegal things here. Unfortunately, these actions have not stopped, but have become even more active. After that, as a second step, we invited the Iranian Ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where he was handed a note of protest, and we made it public. Following this, both funny and depressing events occurred. They attached fake Armenian license plates to Iranian fuel trucks, allegedly these are Armenian cars. But they also had inscriptions in Persian. This surprised us very much. We started investigating, found out that the same number is attached to several cars, that is, the number is the same, but the cars are different. Even this forgery they committed so carelessly that, by God, you can't find the words. After that, we already stopped several cars, the drivers were detained, and we saw that in their travel documents it was written: Stepanakert, Armenia. That is, it was a clear disrespect for our territorial integrity and sovereignty."

Then he remembered the military exercises, the attack on the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran and the insulting statements of the Ayatollah and representative of the Supreme Leader of Iran Seyyed Hassan Ameli in Ardabil on December 29, 2024. And judging by Aliyev's words, official Baku decided to use this case to cool relations with Iran.:

"This mullah of the city of Ardabil has repeatedly used offensive language against Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani people, including me. The question is, how does the person who appointed him to this position feel about this. He didn't take this position voluntarily. We know very well who appoints him. What is his reaction, whether he supports it or not, who will apologize to Azerbaijan? Will he apologize or not? The feeling of regret expressed in the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran is not enough. There was a clear insult here: both the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and our peoples, and at an official live event. And just regret? This, of course, is unacceptable. Therefore, we believe that this provincial mullah should be punished. At the very least, he should be removed from his post and he should apologize to Azerbaijan. That's the question."

The plane crash and the insulting statements of the Iranian Ayatollah are two different events. However, in a striking way, Azerbaijan acts in both cases as if it wants to slow down, if not curtail cooperation with Russia and Iran. It may be objected to us that on January 8, during Aliyev's talks with the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the international North-South transport corridor and trilateral cooperation in the Russia—Iran—Azerbaijan format were discussed.

But after all, despite the persuasions and persuasions from the United Kingdom and Israel, Azerbaijan cannot just abandon the North-South corridor and cooperation with Russia and Iran. He needs time for this. And if you also take into account the fact that Relations between Baku and Washington have always developed better under the Republicans, that is, there is a strong suspicion that Azerbaijan has already begun to prepare to withdraw from cooperation with Russia and Iran in order to join the ranks of the United States, Israel and the United Kingdom.

Armenia responds to Azerbaijan’s fascism accusation: They want to provoke tensions

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 10:06:35 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from POLITICO.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has urged Azerbaijan to cool tensions and to stick to dialogue instead of resorting to accusations and threats.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said on Tuesday that independent Armenia is a threat to the region and “a fascist state in its nature” in an interview with local media, reacting to the reform of Armenia’s army and its arms deals with France.

Responding, Pashinyan said: “Perhaps [Azeri capital] Baku is trying to “legitimize” the escalation in the region. They make aggressive statements in the hope of an aggressive response from [Armenian capital] Yerevan, which [in turn] allows Baku to make its [own] statements more aggressive.

“[When] combined with the spread of false information about the violation of the ceasefire by the Armenian army, [this will] form a “justification” for a new escalation in the region,” Pashinyan told Armenpress on Wednesday.

Aliyev and his government have been accused of stirring up ethnic hatred against Armenians. Azerbaijan has fought a series of wars against its neighbor since 2020. In September 2023, Azerbaijani forces conquered the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, sparking an exodus of its entire 100,000-strong ethnic Armenian population — drawing allegations of ethnic cleansing from Western NGOs and watchdogs.

Aliyev’s fascism claim came after the Azeri defense ministry accused the Armenian army of shooting at Azeri army positions on the southeastern border between the two states on Jan. 5. The Armenian Defense Ministry dismissed the accusations as disinformation in a statement on Sunday.

“[The] armament of Armenia will lead to new tensions. We don’t want that. We want peace … But independent Armenia is a fascist state at its core. Fascism must be destroyed by [the] Armenian leadership or we will do it ourselves,” Aliyev told local TV channels on Tuesday.

The two countries have been in a decades-long conflict since the fall of the Soviet Union. In recent years the U.S. and the EU have been pushing for a diplomatic solution amid hopes that a lasting peace deal can be signed.

“We will not use the language of aggression, but the language of dialogue. We will continue to focus on demarcation, on agreeing on the text of the peace treaty, [and on an] agreement on humanitarian issues, including the problems of discovering the fate of the missing,” Pashinyan said.

Gabriel Gavin contributed reporting to this story.

‘Georgian Nightmare Non-Recognition Act’ introduced in US Congress as Zourabichvili prepares for Trump’s inauguration

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 08:14:11 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from [Untitled].

US media reported that the ‘Georgian Nightmare Non-Recognition Act’ is going to Congress as Salome Zourabichvili has accepted an invitation to attend president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Fox News reported that the ‘Georgian Nightmare Non-Recognition Act’, which prohibits recognition of the Georgian Dream government, was to be introduced in the US Congress on 8 January.
However, as of 9 January, the proposed legislation has not appeared on the congressional website.
The act is the latest in a series of decisions and statements that highlight the deterioration of relations between the US and the Georgian Dream government.
According to Fox News, which has obtained a copy of the proposed bill, the legislation would prohibit the recognition or normalisation of relations ‘with any Government of Georgia that is led by Bidzina Ivanishvili or any proxies due to the Ivanishvili regime’s ongoing crimes against the Georgian people’.
‘Ivanishvili regime must remain isolated’
The bill states that ‘no federal official or employee may take any action, and no Federal funds may be made available, to recognize or otherwise imply, in any manner, United States recognition of Bidzina Ivanishvili or any government in Georgia’.
The bill has two sponsors: Republican Representative Joe Wilson and Democratic Representative Steve Cohen. Both are outspoken critics of Georgian Dream.
‘Sanctioned oligarch Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream party has now become a tool of Putin’, Cohen, who coined the name of the bill, told Fox News.
‘They falsified the October election and illegally picked a pliable president’, he said, adding that ‘Until it agrees to free and fair elections, the Ivanishvili regime must remain fully isolated by all democratic governments’.
Another author of the bill, Joe Wilson, is also the author of the ‘Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act’, which was passed in February 2024. This act prohibited recognition or normalization of relations with the now-toppled Bashar al-Assad government in Syria. The bill was signed into law by President Joe Biden last month.
‘We will pursue the same policy with the Ivanishvili regime’, Rep. Wilson told Fox News while comparing the ‘Georgian Nightmare Non-Recognition Act’ to the anti-Assad Act.
Georgian Dream still has yet to comment on the introduction of the new will, but in its lengthy statement published yesterday, the ruling party fiercely attacked its international critics, referring to Wilson as a ‘degraded politician with zero political culture’.
As Fox News noted, while it is the US president’s prerogative to recognise a government or leader, US lawmakers point to past precedents when Congress refused to recognise regimes it considered to be illegitimate. This includes cases like Russia's occupation of Ukrainian and Georgian territories, as well as the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states in 1940.
‘Georgian Nightmare Non-Recognition Act’ is not the only bill introduced to the new US Congress. Another document, The Mobilising and Enhancing Georgia’s Options for Building Accountability, Resilience, and Independence (MEGOBARI, or ‘friend’ in Georgian) Act was reintroduced in the Congress last week. Its sponsor is also Wilson.
The MEGOBARI Act was first introduced in May in response to Georgia’s foreign agent law. It mandates further sanctions against Georgian officials as well as funding for Georgian media and civil society.
Zourabichvili to attend Trump’s inauguration
Besides critical legislative initiatives and harsh social media posts, Wilson has also invited self-declared interim President Salome Zourabichvili to president-elect Donald Trump's inauguration scheduled for 20 January.
During the press conference held on Thursday, Zourabichvili confirmed her attendance at the event, stating that she’s going to have ‘high-level meetings’ there.
According to Fox News, Zourabichvili is mentioned in the ‘Georgian Nightmare Non-Recognition Act’ as well. The proposed bill states that the US shall recognise her as ‘the incumbent President of Georgia prior to the fraudulent elections on October 26, 2024’, and as the only legitimate leader of the country.
Zourabichvili managed to speak personally with Trump in recent weeks ahead of his inauguration. Last month, during the ceremony for the reopening of the Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris, she met Trump alongside French President Emmanuel Macron. As she later stated, she ‘exposed the stolen election and extremely alarming repression against the people of Georgia’.
The US-Georgian relations have noticeably deteriorated amid the adoption of Russian-style laws, manipulated elections, the suspension of EU membership aspirations, and violence against anti-government demonstrators by Georgian authorities.
At the end of November, Washington suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia, and in December, sanctions were imposed on the Georgian Dream’s honorary head Bidzina Ivanishvili and other senior officials of the party, as well as on Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri.
Prior to this, Washington had already sanctioned several influential Georgian judges, often referred to by critics as part of the ‘judicial clan’ close to the government. Sanctions were also imposed on Zviad Kharazishvili, the head of the Interior Ministry’s Special Tasks Department, who played a key role in the brutal crackdown on participants of the ongoing protests.
Georgian Dream's rhetoric has become increasingly harsh towards those countries that criticise its governance and have imposed sanctions due to the backsliding of democracy.
In a lengthy statement published on 8 January, the ruling party attacked the states, institutions, and politicians that impose those sanctions, and referred to foreign critics as members of the ‘deep state network’.
At the same time, Georgian Dream officials have said publicly that they are looking forward to Trump’s inauguration in Washington. They have often referenced the president-elect's statements claiming that he will fight the ‘deep state’ and end Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, in which, according to Georgian Dream’s conspiracy theory, external forces from the ‘Global War Party’ have been attempting to drag Georgia into from the very beginning.
However, with Trump’s inauguration approaching, Georgian Dream has been trying to balance its stated expectations. In December, one of the party's leaders, Mamuka Mdinaradze, said, ‘We should neither be hopeless nor place excessive hopes on the period after 20 January’.

The Blogs: Azerbaijan-Israel strategic partnership proves its worth

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 07:51:22 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Rufat Ahmadzada, at The Blogs.

Court of Appeal rejects complaints of those arrested in 'Toplum TV' case

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 07:02:08 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

The Baku Court of Appeal on Thursday rejected the appeal against the extension of the detention of journalist Mushfig Jabbar, who was arrested in the 'Toplum TV' case.

As his lawyer Nazim Musayev told Turan, there are no material or procedural grounds for Jabbar's detention. Jabbar has nothing to do with the charges of "foreign currency smuggling" brought against him, because the journalist had not left the country for 7 years before his arrest.

The lawyer said that no primary evidence of Jabbar's guilt has been presented, and each time the investigation motivates the extension of the arrest by conducting an "expert examination" that is not be carried out.

Today, the Court of Appeal also rejected a complaint against the extension of the arrest of another person involved in the case, Ramin Babayev, an employee of the Institute of Democratic Initiatives. A day earlier, the complaints of Akif Gurbanov, speaker of the 'Platform III of the Republic', and Ilkin Amrakhov, an employee of the Institute of Democratic Initiatives, were not satisfied either.

The complaint of the founder of 'Toplum TV', Alesker Mammadli, was also not satisfied, despite serious health problems.

In the coming days, the appeals of two more defendants in this case will be considered - Ruslan Izzatli, a member of the 'Platform III of the Republic', and Ali Zeynalov, a 'Toplum TV' journalist.

*On March 6-8, 9 journalists and activists of 'Toplum TV' and its partner organization, the Institute for Democratic Initiatives, were detained. They were accused of smuggling foreign currency. Seven people were arrested, and two were placed under police supervision. The defendants in the case deny the charges. Human rights activists recognized those arrested as political prisoners. On December 27, the court extended their arrest until April 6.

Court sentences activist Rail Abbasov to 6.5 years of imprisonment.

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 06:24:30 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story .

On January 9, the Baku Court of Serious Crimes completed the trial of activist Rail Abbasov, accused of fraud.

In his last statement, Abbasov said that he was arrested on far-fetched and trumped-up charges for defending his friend, human rights defender Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, who was also unreasonably arrested. Abbasov cited numerous inconsistencies in his case as evidence of falsification of his case and asked the court to make a fair decision.

However, the court sentenced Abbasov to 6.5 years of imprisonment.

Earlier, the prosecutor requested that Abbasov be sentenced to 8 years of imprisonment.

*On September 20, 2023, the Nasimi Court of Baku arrested Abbasov for 4 months on charges under Article 178.3.2 (large-scale fraud) of the Criminal Code. Abbasov denies the accusation, considering his active participation in protecting the rights of activist Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, who was arrested back in December 2022, to be the true reason. Human rights activists recognized both as political prisoners.

Armenia's government backs bill on launching EU accession process

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 05:34:30 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from The Kyiv Independent.

The Armenian government on Jan. 9 supported a draft law on initiating the country's accession process with the European Union, Armenia News reported.
The government "expressed a positive stance" on the bill, which was submitted as a citizens' initiative. It has been submitted to Armenia's parliament for consideration, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said.
Yerevan has made an effort to build a closer relationship with the EU amid deteriorating ties with Russia, though the South Caucasus country is yet to submit a membership application.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stressed that even if the bill is passed, the accession process can start only if the Armenian people support it in a referendum.
"But if the law is adopted, we must have some idea about our next steps" and "discuss with the EU the road map that they imagine and that we imagine," Pashinyan said at a government meeting.
The prime minister noted that the bill should be approached without "undue enthusiasm" and that the country should currently focus on developing more practical steps, such as visa liberalization.
Speaking in the European Parliament in October 2023, Pashinyan said that his country is ready to align more closely with the bloc, though he later expressed doubts about whether Armenia is ready for full membership.
Pashinyan spoke in the EU's legislature shortly after Russia, Armenia's traditional ally, failed to prevent an Azerbaijani lighting offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a rapid deterioration of ties between Yerevan and Moscow.
Last March, the European Parliament adopted a resolution urging the EU's executive bodies to strengthen relations with Armenia. The parliament also said Armenia meets the Maastricht Treaty requirements to apply for membership.

Why does Aliyev bring up unimportant issues against Iran?

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 14:32:35 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from Mehr News Agency - Opinion > Op-Ed.

In a lengthy interview with Azeri local media on Tuesday, President Aliyev reviewed the political and economic situation of his country and the developments in the region in 2024. In part of interview about the future of relations between Tehran and Baku, he brought up unimportant issues and stated that "relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan were deteriorated under the previous Iranian government, and we still do not have very serious relations under the new government; there have been contacts between the two countries, but they were mostly related to economic and transportation issues."

"The deterioration of ties were not our fault," the Azeri president later said, blaming the previous Iranian government for the the current state of relations. Aliyev claimed that the reason for the deteriorated relations between the two countries is Tehran, but even in an official interview yesterday, he once again, without providing any reason, highlighted the incident of the attack on the country's embassy in Tehran two years ago and the recent marginal issues in Ardabil, saying that he and the Turkish president were insulted and that "the Iranian Foreign Ministry's expression of regret was not enough and Tehran must officially apologize."

On December 29, 2023, during the recent ceremony commemorating the "martyrs of the Chaldaran War and the martyrs of the Resistance Front" in Ardabil, one of the participants of the ceremony, who was not holding any official position, made statements against the leaders of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which soon forced Ayatollah Seyyed Hassan Ameli, Friday prayer imam and representative of the Leader of the Islamic Republic in Ardabil province, to announce that "The inappropriate language that was used in one of the gatherings this week by an ordinary and unofficial person cannot be considered our official, religious, and belief language and the official position of the Islamic Republic, and such a relationship in the world of diplomacy is completely unconventional and controversial."

Recalling that "the enemies of the Iranian nation are seeking to destroy and undermine Iran's relations with its neighbors," he emphasized, "Everyone knows that the personal statements of individuals are by no means the official stance of any government in the world."

Furthermore, as Aliyev himself said, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has also officially expressed regret over the incident; however, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian chargé d'affaires in Baku on January 1 and announced its protest.

Azerbaijan was expected not to allow such remarks from an irresponsible and ordinary person, who is a completely unimportant issue to be brought up to an official level. However, surprisingly, in his official interview yesterday as the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev enhanced this marginal issue to the highest official levels and claimed that Iran should officially "apologize" for the statements of an ordinary person.

To make this false statement believable, Aliyev placed this unimportant issue alongside the attack on the Iranian embassy in Tehran two years ago, in order to kind of prove, that Baku is completely "innocent" in creating the current situation.

In February 2022, following an armed attack on the Azerbaijani embassy, the Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the act and emphasized that an armed individual's attack on the embassy was carried out of personal motives, announcing that Tehran would seriously follow up on the matter and prosecute the perpetrator of the incident; however, Aliyev, recalling this event once again, describes the attack on the Baku embassy as "terrorist" in order to create tensions between the two countries for unknown and suspicious reasons; This is while, according to international norms, such issues can be resolved at lower levels and do not need to be enhanced to an official and high level.

Aliyev blamed Tehran for the current state of the bilateral relations as if these marginal issues were a bolt from the blue. He brings up unimportant issues as if Republic of Azerbaijan, as a Muslim country and neighbor, has observed good neighborliness, and it is Iran that is seeking to worsen relations between the two countries by touching on those issues.

Since in order to understand any phenomenon, one must also consider its previous record and take into account the processes that led to the occurrence of an incident or event. The current state of relations between Tehran and Baku is no exception. It is necessary to ask what other factors are involved in the current situation that Ilham Aliyev deliberately ignores and points the blame at Tehran.

Everybody knows that one of the main bases of the Zionist regime around Iran is the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that many anti-Iranian mischiefs and sabotage attacks can be traced back to the Zionist bases and its headquarters in the Republic of Azerbaijan. However, the Baku officials not only have not taken any action in this regard, but also boast about their relationship with Tel Aviv.

Furthermore, over the past years, the media and television networks of the Republic of Azerbaijan have repeatedly acted against the territorial integrity of Iran and aired special programs for the Azeri-speaking target audience in Iran with their malicious goals. However, Iran has never brought up such meddling activities at an official level and has always emphasized good neighborliness and good relations with neighbors, calling for the peaceful resolution of those problems. It has also advised the Republic of Azerbaijan that the Zionist regime is seeking to disrupt the good relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan; an issue that the Baku authorities always ignore. It is an irony, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan thinks that he is in a position to blame Iran for the current situation!

MNA/6341418

Azerbaijan's President Aliyev calls Armenia 'fascist state, threat to region'

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 14:28:53 -0500

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from The Kyiv Independent.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Jan. 7 called Armenia effectively a "fascist state," claiming that Baku might have no other choice but to "destroy" its neighbor's so-called "fascist ideology."
Azerbaijan and Armenia are bitter rivals, having clashed in multiple territorial and ethnic conflicts since they gained independence three decades ago.
Speaking in an interview with local television channels, Aliyev accused Armenian authorities of being bearers of a "fascist ideology" for 30 years, shaping the country in their image. He also called Armenia a "threat to the region."
The Azerbaijani strongman issued thinly veiled threats against Armenia, saying that "fascism must be destroyed. It will be destroyed either by the Armenian leadership or by us. We have no other choice."
In September 2023, Baku's forces captured the Nagorno-Karabakh region, de jure Azerbaijani territory that, at the time, was de facto ruled by ethnic Armenian authorities and had been a key point of contest between the two countries.
Almost the entire 100,000-strong Armenian population fled the region following Azerbaijan's lightning offensive.
As Yerevan and Baku lead bilateral talks on normalizing relations and settling outstanding border disputes, Armenian authorities have accused Azerbaijan, currently the stronger player in the region, of planning further hostilities.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said last December that the Azerbaijani side received proposals on two unresolved issues in the negotiations but has yet to respond.
"If Azerbaijan also doesn’t have intentions to attack Armenia, then the likelihood of escalation in the region is zero," Pashinyan said in an interview last month.
Aliyev also called on France and other countries to stop providing arms to Armenia and take back the weapons already provided. Yerevan has deepened security cooperation with the West after its traditional ally, Russia, did not step in to prevent Azerbaijan's attack in 2023 despite having peacekeepers deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh.