Real Estate Tips

[27 Speaks Podcast] Jonathan Miller Provides A 2024 Hamptons Outlook

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 22 Feb 2024 11:07:34 -0500

I joined the folks at 27East again for a discussion on the housing market outlook for 2024 in the Hamptons. They always foster a great conversation and I enjoyed this one as I always do.

27east.com · Real Estate Analyst Gives 2024 Hamptons Outlook

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Central Bank Central Video Podcast: Miller Samuels’ Chief Sees Stubbornly High Mortgage Rates, Low Inventories

Jonathan Miller — Tue, 23 Jan 2024 15:08:42 -0500

A long time friend and journalist Kathleen Hays invited me to speak with her about the impact of the recent Fed pivot on the U.S. housing market. She has extensive experience interviewing experts about the economy from time at Bloomberg Television.

She’s started up a very cool Substack: Central Bank Central that features conversations around Fed policy. I very much enjoyed the conversation and I hope you do too!

Kathleen Hays Presents: Central Bank Central: Miller Samuels’ Chief Sees Stubbornly High Mortgage Rates, Low Inventories

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Bloomberg’s At The Money Podcast (ATM): The Best Way To Sell A House

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 27 Dec 2023 11:11:42 -0500

I joined my friend Barry Ritholtz for the second time on his new podcast, At The Money (or cleverly, ATM). Masters in Business is still going strong, but he had a new idea – create a really good personal finance-focused show. ATM is still in the MIB feed but will have its own podcast feed in the new year.

Talking Head's Burning Down The House‘ as the intro music!

My previous visit on ATM:
At the Money Podcast: The Best Way to Buy a House

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Bloomberg’s At The Money Podcast (ATM): The Best Way To Buy A House

Jonathan Miller — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 21:30:27 -0500

I joined my friend Barry Ritholtz on his new podcast, At The Money (or cleverly, ATM). Masters in Business is still going strong, but he had a new idea – create a really good personal finance-focused show. We recorded this on Tuesday – it’s currently located in the Master in Business podcast feed but will be available in its own feed everywhere on January 1.

Crosby Stills Nash & Young’s ‘Our House‘ as the intro music!

At the Money Podcast: The Best Way to Buy a House

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Bloomberg TV – Yes. We Are In A Housing Crisis

Jonathan Miller — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 21:17:51 -0500

I got to join the gang at Bloomberg Surveillance on Tuesday morning. Always fun and smart. The focus seems to be figuring out what the exit of this era of tight housing inventory looks like and when rents will come down since inflation is tangibly falling.

My journey to the city for the Bloomberg interview: catching the 5:49 am train – waiting in the green room – and working my way up the guest list to go on.

Lisa Abramowicz pens a recap of her show’s morning guests covering inflation (which guides fed policy), which is really worth a read: Surveillance: Wall Street Exults ‘We’re Going to Win This Thing’

Wait for my complaint/joke at the end with Tom. Fun.

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Urban Digs Webinar: Valuing Outdoor Space

Jonathan Miller — Tue, 03 Oct 2023 17:53:06 -0400

This webinar was held during the previous week with several hundred people in attendance - I didn't get the recording soon enough to post last Friday.

Noah and John at Urban Digs invited me to talk about my approach to valuing outdoor space in NYC. I documented my approach to its valuation back on May 5, 2010 on my Matrix blog, after years of getting calls from real estate agents asking how to value them, this post was born: [Terra Logic] Understanding The Value of Manhattan Apartment Outdoor Space. For other "How to" valuation discussions, please go here: "How to Value" and Other Favorite Posts

The outdoor space amenity goes for quite a premium, and its relationship has changed over the years, but my methodology remains sound. Urban Digs approaches it differently, but it comes out the same in the wash. I love these guys.

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Bloomberg’s Masters in Business: Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates

Jonathan Miller — Tue, 05 Sep 2023 10:05:36 -0400

I joined my friend Barry Ritholtz of RWM and of The Big Picture on his Bloomberg Radio MIB podcast for the sixth time since 2014. Here’s the transcript, my book recommendations, as well as the full podcast version below:

Here are the previous interviews from 2014, 2016, 2020, 2021 and 2022. They are always fun, and Barry keeps the conversation interesting. My wife Cheryl was in the producer’s booth, keeping me honest (and taking pictures).

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Bloomberg Surveillance 8-1-23: The Pandemic Wiped Out Housing Inventory: Miller

Jonathan Miller — Tue, 01 Aug 2023 16:34:04 -0400

I always have great conversations with Lisa Abramowicz, an anchor on Bloomberg Television's Bloomberg Surveillance.

The TV clip captures about half the conversation. For the my full interview, check out the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel President & CEO, says housing prices have leveled off.

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[Business of Home Podcast] A Real Estate Check-In With Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller — Tue, 18 Jul 2023 17:02:28 -0400

I joined Dennis Scully again on The Business of Home podcast: The Thursday Show: A real estate check-in with Jonathan Miller, why Gen Z loves dupes and more. A lot has happened since our previous conversation back in July 2022. Other than having quality issues with my microphone, I really enjoyed the conversation. It starts at the 25:22 mark.

[click on the image to play]

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WCBS Radio – State Of Commercial Office, City v. Suburbs

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 28 Jun 2023 16:17:42 -0400

I had a nice conversation with Joe Connolly and Neil A. Carousso on WCBS Newsradio 880 on the state of the NYC commercial office market. It was a macro-level conversation that I thought you might find helpful.

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Three Hours On C-SPAN Yields One Granddaughter

Jonathan Miller — Sun, 21 May 2023 10:09:08 -0400

On Friday morning, I was one of five expert witnesses (and the only as an appraiser) to testify on the topic of appraisal bias in front of the Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC). The witnesses waited together in the green room, plus additional TAF staff. We had a delightful conversation - everyone was very friendly and a pleasure to be with, given the adversarial nature of our looming testimony.

I've spoken many hundreds of times on national television but never on C-SPAN, so participating in this event was a bucket list check-off for me. The FHFA auditorium and facilities were impressive - the organization of the event was first class and ran very smoothly (way to go, Julie!).

During the first hour of testimony, our fourth grandchild was born. My wife was in the audience and stepped out of the hearing (the nerve!) to take the call from my oldest son on the news of our new granddaughter.

The Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC) held a second hearing on challenges facing the appraisal industry, including barriers to entering the profession and racial bias in home appraisals. The panel’s first hearing on such topics occurred in January. The ASC is an interagency committee under the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council and oversees real estate appraisal regulations. The Federal Housing Finance Agency hosted the event at its headquarters in Washington, DC.

It's a three-hour hearing, but if you are connected to the appraisal industry in any way, I encourage you to listen. You can hear my opening statement at about the 26-minute mark. The text on the C-SPAN website was generated from unedited closed captions. Here was my formal statement, but since the timing was strictly limited to 5 minutes, I read this abbreviated version, which in hindsight, was better and more to the point.

Federal Housing Finance Agency (@FHFA) hearing on Appraisal Industry Issues – LIVE at 10am ET on C-SPAN https://t.co/uyAqNgs1tk
— CSPAN (@cspan) May 19, 2023

Afterwards...

Three regulators from the ASC came to me from the stage immediately afterward and said I was the best dressed in the room, and they loved my tie. I wasn't expecting that. Ha. All were very nice. My wife and I immediately shared pictures of our new granddaughter.

Thoughts...

Morgan Williams, General Counsel, National Fair Housing Alliance - He was an effective witness - he drove home that he wanted access to anonymized loan-level data to determine the potential valuation bias.

Angela G. Jemmott, Bureau Chief, California Bureau of Real Estate Appraisers, Member of the Association of Appraiser Regulatory Officials. She was a powerhouse of testimony, advocating practicum solutions in addition to PAREA.

Michelle Czekalski Bradley, Certified General Appraiser, Chair of the Appraisal Standards Board (ASB) of TAF, was earnest and towed the Dave Bunton narrative. When the CFPB head went after her for the conflict of interest of her position, she named me by name (an unforced error) and said there was no conflict. She may believe that with all her heart, but most of her peers in the industry think otherwise. Her husband is a senior official at McKissock, the largest provider of online appraisal courses and they have a financial arrangement with TAF on USPAP courses - and Michelle heads the board that makes changes to USPAP. This is another example of the stunning lack of oversight for this not-for-profit (TAF) that modifies USPAP that becomes embedded into laws in the 50 states and five territories. I'm sure she means well and, in her mind, is giving back to the industry, but she is remarkably oblivious to the optics of her position. I believe Dave Bunton hand-selected her for her ability to follow orders. TAF is a monarchy, nothing less.

Brad Swinney, Chief Appraiser, Farm Credit Bank of Texas, Chair of the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB), had a hard time presenting and defending PAREA. He, like Michelle, was hand selected by Dave Bunton after the prior AQB chair was removed immediately because he wanted to explore the stunning lack of diversity in the appraisal profession. (We're 98% white and dead last (400 of 400) as tracked by the BLS). So it follows that if the prior chair was removed immediately after trying to dig into the appraisal industry's lack of diversity, then it's just a hop, skip, and jump to assume that Brad was brought in to follow Dave Bunton's position of staying away from the topic. Brad mentioned several times that "someone" (me) was saying 1,500 hours of experience were required, yet he stated only 1,000 hours were required for residential certification experience. As the AQB chair, he was uninformed. I was referring to the New York State requirement for 1,500 hours as a New York City appraiser, as noted on the New York State website.

I'm glad we've cleared that up.

TAF's representatives (Michelle & Brad) were under siege by the ASC board and did not do well under fire. They found themselves wiggling to defend the indefensible even though they were hand-picked by Dave Bunton for their ability to toe the party line. Both tried hard to frame themselves in a silo - Michelle when it came to how board members were selected and Brad - how they had no responsibility for how much PAREA would cost appraisers. To be clear, TAF had always pushed back hard on PAREA until Dave realized that it could be used to divert attention from, and possibly have a positive influence, on our industry's stunning lack of diversity.

When I was highly critical of the two-year cycle in my testimony and how TAF goes back and forth on rules that confuse everyone, Michelle brought up the current four-year run of USPAP without changes and how on January 1st, there will not be an exploration date. The problem with framing it that way was that TAF claimed USPAP was frozen for four years because of COVID. Dave saw the pressure coming for change and used COVID as an excuse, yet the reality was that Zoom became ubiquitous, and there was no reason to stop the cycle other than to use COVID to save face. Dave recently realized that because states required USPAP 7-hour update courses every two years, they were still going to benefit from a revenue flow from the classes and could still avoid grant money from the ASC so they wouldn't have any "strings" attached to their actions. Dave can still fly all over the world on boondoggles to valuation conferences, dining on steak and fine wine without scrutiny. I brought up in my testimony that only about 15 minutes of each 7-hour update class contained new information.

To be clear, only one person of color has been on a technical board (ASB + AQB) in the 3+ decade history of The Appraisal Foundation, which has been led by the same person the entire time. And that one person, despite being highly qualified, was only accepted on the board because of significant outside press from myself and a handful of others. Proof of this is that no more persons of color will be invited to any of their boards in the ensuing three years.

For many TAF board members, this is just a resume builder. They won't do anything to forward progress in the industry because Dave Bunton and his sycophants will work hard to prevent it like they just did on the AQB.

This TAF byzantine and weird corporate bureaucracy is an unfair burden to everyday working appraisers and is destroying the public trust. I hope Friday's testimony helped confirm a few reasons why there is no diversity in the industry, and it will enable the ASC to push for accountability and change at TAF.

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Wall Street Bonuses Fall To Pre-Pandemic Levels

Jonathan Miller — Sat, 01 Apr 2023 12:26:50 -0400

The Office of the New York State Comptroller released its analysis of Wall Street Bonuses for 2022 last week.

The real estate industry used to go gaga over this report before the housing bubble. But now, with so many bonuses received as deferred compensation or in a non-cash format, the Manhattan housing market no longer sees an immediate surge in demand when bonuses are announced. However, securities industry jobs seemed relatively unphased by the pandemic and the economic surge in the aftermath of the lockdown.

Wall Street’s 2022 average bonus paid to securities employees dropped to $176,700, a 26% decline from the previous year’s $240,400, according to New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli’s annual estimate. Rising interest rates and fear of a recession led to fewer profits on Wall Street after a record haul in 2021.

I update my yearly chart series that breaks out the annual bonus results. Most notable here is the slightly diminished reliance on the securities sector, as noted by the declining salary multiplier to the private sector since the peak in 2007 and the smaller share of securities industry employment to total employment. It's not in the chart, but the slightly lower contribution of the securities industry with its much higher-paying jobs has been partially offset by the influx of the tech sector, which pays higher wages than the overall private sector.

These chart colors are obnoxious, but their story is still easy to read.

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Elliman Magazine Column “Market Update” – New Inventory Is Falling

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 08 Dec 2022 14:12:59 -0500

I write a column for Elliman Magazine called “Market Update” that presents a chart and context around it. Its kind of like my nine-year column “Three Cents Worth” at the old Curbed but more grown-up and without the snark.

The post Elliman Magazine Column “Market Update” – New Inventory Is Falling first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

My Interview on Crosstown with Pat Kiernan – What can we do about NYC’s housing crisis?

Jonathan Miller — Sun, 13 Nov 2022 20:53:56 -0500

I’m a big fan of Pat Kiernan, the star anchor for Spectrum News NY1. I especially like his “in the papers” spots and I’ve been on his morning show a few times. He interviewed me virtually to set the stage to describe NYC’s housing challenge.

Check it out!

The post My Interview on Crosstown with Pat Kiernan – What can we do about NYC’s housing crisis? first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

Maintain value-added scenarios to grow your business mission

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 10:46:45 -0400

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Streamline exceptional process & unleash your collaboration

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 10:44:48 -0400

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transform high standards

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productivate next-generation

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Supported business with intelligence
Private funds granted with help of Govt.
Increase efficiency and achieve better sales

Driving success to your business

impactful relations

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The post Streamline exceptional process & unleash your collaboration first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

Monetize proactive your e-business & access to accurate experiences

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 10:42:14 -0400

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Private funds granted with help of Govt.
Increase efficiency and achieve better sales

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[Podcast] Slate Money: Felix Learns What A Condo Is – Jonathan Miller joins to talk all things real estate.

Jonathan Miller — Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:55:39 -0400

I’m a regular listener to the Slate Money podcast so I was thrilled to be invited to participate.

This week, Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers are joined by housing market analyst and real estate appraiser Jonathan Miller to answer all their burning real estate questions including what’s going on with mortgage rates, how do new luxury buildings affect prices, and why is rent so damn high?

The post [Podcast] Slate Money: Felix Learns What A Condo Is – Jonathan Miller joins to talk all things real estate. first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

How to have a fantastic career opportunity with minimal spending

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 22 Sep 2022 15:48:05 -0400

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Understanding the value & background of all public relation trends

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 22 Sep 2022 15:46:42 -0400

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Things you should know before getting into the business industry

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 22 Sep 2022 15:45:27 -0400

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Atlanta Housing Market Update 2022

Mandich Property Group — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 13:26:15 -0400

Atlanta Housing Market At A Glance

It’s no secret that the Atlanta housing market has been on fire for the last two years. The cause? Historically low mortgage rates and the coronavirus. People tried to flee largely populated areas to get to the less dense suburbs. Current homeowners didn’t want to sell their current property, and new construction was down due to a lack of labor, all leading to a shortage of homes, new and existing. So what does the rest of 2022 have in store for the housing market?

Home Sales Are Slowing

Two significant factors are slowing home sales right now: rising interest rates and more homes are coming to market. It looks like the seller’s market is turning more to a buyer’s, or at least becoming a more stable, normal real estate market.

Kam Williams recently stated this in Atlanta Magazine:

The days of having a listing come on at 5 o’clock, and having to see it by 5:05, and having 40 offers on one property—we’re not having that anymore,” she says. “Now buyers are a bit relieved. If they see something, they don’t have to run out in the next two seconds

Read The Full Article Here

This leads us to our next question that has a lot of people concerned –

Are We Headed For A Crash?

Many people are worried about another crash like that of ’08. In fact, Google trends show that more people are searching the term “housing crash” and similar terms more than at any time since ’07.
If you listen to the news, it’s all gloom and doom, but the market data doesn’t support it. Some experts predict a housing market correction.

The housing crash of ’08 was due to banks’ loose lending standards and an overabundance of homes. Banks aren’t giving out the risky loans they did years ago, and foreclosures still remain low. Housing inventory still remains critically low overall. However, metro Atlanta’s housing inventory rose to its highest level since September 2020. This gives more proof things are turning in favor of buyers.

Again, what we are seeing is a return to a normal market.

What’s Making The Market Turn?

Rising interest rates are a real problem for some would-be buyers. Prices of homes are still extremely high. The median price for a home in Atlanta is over $400,000, the price alone is driving out a lot of young and first-time homebuyers, and rising interest rates only exasperate the problem. For instance, a 2% rate increase from a fixed rate of 3.5% to 5.5% on a $300,000 home would mean an increase in monthly payments of over $350.00. So, in theory, this will affect buyers on the lower end, having less inventory and competing with other buyers wanting the same property.

What’s Ahead For The Rest Of 2022?

We wish we had a crystal ball, but we don’t, so all we can do is follow the market data.

Housing inventory remains extremely low. Many would-be sellers don’t want to sell because of rising interest rates and lose the low 3.5% rate they have now. However, people will become used to the higher interest rates and continue to buy. If you need to move because of a job transfer, it’s out of necessity, not luxury.

Rising interest rates will definitely slow new home construction. The data is already showing fewer permits being pulled for new home construction.

Our take:

We think things will continue to slow, especially if interest rates continue to rise. Rising interest rates are the only hedge the Fed has against inflation. Inventory remains extremely low, which will keep prices high, but we will see a small correction in prices as we are already seeing sellers having to lower their asking prices in some areas.

As a reminder, if you have a home that you have inherited, are a tired landlord, have a house that is ugly or pretty – we would love the opportunity to make you an offer on it, just get in touch with us!

Elliman Magazine Column – A Symptom of Chronic Inventory Lows: Bidding Wars Are Everywhere

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 14 Apr 2022 16:35:23 -0400

For each issue of Elliman Magazine produced by Douglas Elliman, the same company that publishes most of our U.S. market research, I write a brief column and create a graphic to illustrate an important issue facing the luxury housing market. Of course, the graphic I create is then supercharged by their very talented graphics staff.

Listing inventory has essentially collapsed in most U.S. housing markets as unusually low rates against the backdrop of robust economic conditions have burned off supply to record lows. Evidence of this is seen in the proliferation of U.S. housings markets with a significant share of bidding wars. Since these are broad markets, various submarkets can see the market share at must higher levels. The proxy for market share is the share of transactions that close above the asking price at time of sale against total period sales.

In the current issue of Elliman Magazine: Spring/Summer 2022, my column “A Symptom of Chronic Inventory Lows: Bidding Wars Are Everywhere”

[click to expand]

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Listing Inventory Trends In The Time Of COVID

Jonathan Miller — Thu, 02 Dec 2021 14:49:18 -0500

The Winter 2022 issue of Elliman Magazine was published this week and it is quite a beautiful publication. I created a chart for the publication which compares month listing inventory trends across a number of the markets we cover for Douglas Elliman.

[click to expand image]

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Zillow Offers As A Proxy For ‘Big Data’ Shows The Lack Of Qualitative Analysis

Jonathan Miller — Sun, 07 Nov 2021 20:24:02 -0500

Yes, big data usually infers ‘quantitative’ analysis, as in “relying on numbers.” The Zestimate legacy of profound inaccuracy finally reached a devastating conclusion with the collapse of Zillow Offers this week and the loss of hundreds of millions in shareholder equity. Zillow never figured out the qualitative part that enables the actual precision in the pricing of a home sale.

There is a lot of talk right now about how other iBuyers are continuing to buy and sell properties so the space is still viable – business as usual. But step back for a moment and think about this:

– The iBuyer market is currently overcrowded, even with the loss of Zillow Offers.
– The iBuyer bold-faced name is OpenDoor who was the unicorn of Softbank who famously backed WeWork without any apparent due diligence.
– The iBuyer segment is characterized by its razor-thin margins and billions of investment required.
– It was created and run in a rising market, most of it a boom, and was recently turned off during the recent downturn.
– It is wholly dependent on housing markets with homogenous housing stock and will always need high volume just to survive.

I feel pretty confident there will be further fallout over time, but the iBuyer space will settle into a small segment of the overall transaction universe. It has been wildly overhyped (at real estate brokers and real estate appraiser’s expense) as investors, burdened with high volumes of capital, desperate for upside in housing in this fintech boom.

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This Just In: The ‘A’ in ‘Zillow’ Stands for ‘Accuracy’

Jonathan Miller — Sun, 07 Nov 2021 20:21:04 -0500

The news came quickly and brutally (especially if you were a ZG investor):

@mortgage_yack #zillow #PINKHolidayRemix #realestate #utahrealestate ♬ original sound – Jack

I jumped on the bandwagon with this:

This just in: The “A” in “Zillow” stands for “Accuracy.” https://t.co/j5ukW1zzA9

— Jonathan Miller (@jonathanmiller) November 3, 2021

And this was a perfect post:

so zillow let a robot buy up thousands of properties, outbidding real buyers and artificially inflating the market, and now will be laying off a full quarter of its workforce and selling off the properties to rental corps like BlackRock at vastly discounted prices. that right?

— Insert Clever Name (@BethLynch2020) November 2, 2021

Now let’s digest this in the context of price accuracy:

While Zillow’s CEO Rich Barton essentially said early on that he didn’t want their iBuying efforts (Zillow Offers) to be seen as gaming the Zestimate like that dumb viral Tik Tok video inferred a month ago.

@seangotcher

#housing

♬ San Tropez – Illect Recordings

Yet it would seem unlikely that Zillow Offers used something completely separate and conceptually very different from their ‘Zestimate’ because it would be quite expensive and extremely difficult to keep a radical new valuation concept a complete secret. All we know at this point is whatever valuation methodology they used was a complete fail. And to go a step further their Zestimate valuation methodology has long been a complete failure in the accuracy department. But it hasn’t been a complete failure in the consumer credibility department at all. In fact, it’s been quite successful – after all, Zillow weened control of the U.S. consumer away from the real estate brokerage industry who had enjoyed 100 years of gatekeeper status.

This is why the real estate brokerage industry pays Zillow substantial fees to be featured on a search page in their “Pro” offering, using the source data provided to Zillow by them. Its quite diabolical.

So if we consider the Zestimate to be a proxy for the Zillow Offers valuation tool that failed, it gets worse….

The national median accuracy rate of the Zestimate is 2%.

Because they are using “median” and that term is largely ignored by consumers in the phrase “median accuracy rate” that 2% sounds pretty darn accurate. Yet there is no fine print here. The phrase literally means that 50% of the time the Zestimate is within 2% of actual value and 50% of the time it’s not.

And it gets worse…

The median accuracy rate is only within about 2% if the property being Zestimated is currently listed for sale. But if the property is not currently listed for sale, the median accuracy weakens to 7%.

For the Zestimate to move from 7% to 2%, they are reliant on the broker expertise involved to price the property and get it on the market.

Said another way, in order to get the median accuracy rate from 7% to 2%, they need the brokerage community to price the property to get that touted accuracy rate.

To summarize this point:

The brokerage industry gives all their data to Zillow because Zillow marketed to and won the consumer.

The brokerage industry pays Zillow to market them on the Zillow platform because they gave Zillow all their data.

Zillow became a brokerage firm and therefore a direct competitor to the brokerage industry, something they promised early on would never happen.

Zillow uses the brokerage industry to inaccurately price properties, placing them in an adversarial position with the consumer who wants to sell their home.

Yeah, I get it.

The post This Just In: The ‘A’ in ‘Zillow’ Stands for ‘Accuracy’ first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

NYC Metro Conditions Much More Robust Than Two Years Ago

Jonathan Miller — Fri, 20 Aug 2021 12:56:56 -0400

One of the problems with my normally preferred year-over-year comparisons with metrics to diffuse seasonal impact is that the year-ago period happened to be the pandemic lockdown.

I went through the region using our market report series for Douglas Elliman, comparing the same period two years ago to capture the pre-COV ID market and prices. and sales are up with the exception of Manhattan and North Fork. Listing inventory is up slightly within the city boroughs and plunged in the suburbs.

The post NYC Metro Conditions Much More Robust Than Two Years Ago first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

MORE AMORIN INFLUENCE (MAI): The AI National Nominating Committee Design Is Being Attacked By FOJs

Jonathan Miller — Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:12:21 -0400

To all members of the Appraisal Institute:

Before I start, I wanted to share what the Appraisal Institute's MAI designation is referred to by many of its members. I learned these two from an MAI instructor years ago (pre-merger) who told our class (as if to motivate us?) that MAI stands for:

MORE ANNUAL INCOME
MADE AS INSTRUCTED

And now...

MORE AMORIN INFLUENCE

Over the last five years, I have frequently been writing about the corruption and self-dealing of the largest appraisal trade group in the U.S., whose membership has fallen by a third over the past decade. Since 1997, the leadership has been largely comprised of the same people moving in and out of leadership positions, enjoying lucrative teaching contracts, enjoying compensation as much as double the market rate, expense reimbursements not consistent with corporate and competing organizations, lots of first-class plane flights to Europe, Asia, and other locations with their spouses, all paid for by the hard-working membership who is not clear about what is happening in Chicago headquarters because they are not told.

There is currently another sham petition process underway to prevent Steven Stiloski, the thoroughly vetted choice of the NNC (the second year in a row this sham petition process was utilized), from becoming Vice President. Steven is representing the choice of the membership. Sandra Adomatis, who by entering the election, no matter what her intentions were, can not be blind to the political poison of this sham petition process and becomes an FOJ by default, no matter how qualified she or her backers say she is.

Remember that the sham petition process places the thoroughly vetted NNC candidate on EQUAL FOOTING with someone Jim Amorin puts into the sham petition process or even someone that self-nominates. Incredible.

Smartly, CEO Jim Amorin chose to limit the exposure to the membership by placing it at the end of the membership newsletter in June (I wrote about this several weeks ago in an earlier version of Appraiserville). And I've been told it also appeared in a membership email from the president on June 25th.

So I thought I'd explain one of the things that FOJs (Friends of Jim Amorin) are trying to dismantle because of their eagerness to serve at the pleasure of the current CEO, Jim Amorin.

Let me define what an FOJ (Friends of Jim Amorin) on the Board of Directors is in case the membership is not familiar with this term I coined:

FOJs are resume builders only, actively running the once-proud organization into the ground for their own personal enrichment.
The current FOJs on BOD have not filed a single motion - in other words, they do nothing but the bidding of the CEO Jim Amorin.
They don't represent diversity, especially the actions of all the women who signed the sham petition process to push for Sandy because it will result in less diversity - remember that the CEO scuttled the diversity committee run by Bob Stevens in 2015 because it was a threat to his hold on power.
FOJs don't bring any new ideas to the board or to leadership - they are only on the board to vote "no," so they will get their committees and puff up their resumes.

Remember that Jim Amorin makes over $500k, and using comps of CEOs at reasonably similar organizations, his salary is nearly double the market rate - and membership is forced to pay that. And consider his FOJ enablers like past president Jeff Sherman, who whined in a board meeting against suggestions that the organization begins to stop paying travel expenses of spouses (which is NOT done by corporate America, incidentally). Finally, remember that FOJs need the CEO to remain in power to get their perks and, basically, to hell with the membership.

Jody (Super-Duper) Bishop gets to select the incoming open positions (about 50) and invite the membership to look at those he selects. Because if Jim Amorin wins this sham petition process and Jody selects all FOJs, then the Appraisal Institute will have zero diversity in the future, and both Bishop's and Schley's legacies will be tarnished for the remainder of their professional careers.

Significant diversity initiatives are coming from the new presidential administration, and social mores are shifting too. Current president Rodman Schley has been driving the AI's presence in the discussion, which keeps AI relevant. All that is for nothing if the sham petition process succeeds in keeping the NNC vetted selection from being duly placed in leadership.

The NNC (National Nominating Committee) is comprised of one member from each of the ten regions. The chairman of the NNC is the immediate past president but has a non-voting role. If there is a tie, the executive committee gets to be the tiebreaker with three votes (Super-Duper Bishop, Craig Steinley, and selection after the sham election process is decided).

The NNC is one of the good governance things that happens in Chicago. This committee is Kryptonite to CEO Jim Amorin, and he has worked hard to weaken it but has failed so far. In the past, he has made the following attempts to weaken the NNC:

Narrow the number of leaders
Narrow the number of regions
Propose focus on other sources of future leaders

The beauty of the NNC structure is that members of the Board of Directors have to wait six years after they roll off the board before they can serve on the NNC. This has been problematic for Jim Amorin because he can't get his FOJs onto the NNC easily (it takes too much time) to do what they do now on BOD and live a dishonest professional life of quid pro quo. Of course, in turn, for doing Jim's bidding, they get lots of perks.

The practice of Jim doling out choice positions in return for an FOJ's ethical soul - they're not much different than a sociopath in my book - because FOJs have no moral compass and think that outsiders can't see what they are doing. By definition, FOJs do not care about membership or the direction of the institution. It's all about getting what they want because they are aligned with the person who does things to keep themselves in power at the membership's expense. The CEO is very skilled at that.

And to the handful of FOJs that have reached out privately and given me crap about calling out this malpractice of the organization, don't worry, I will always honor my agreement to keep your name out of this conversation as promised. I am a man of my word. But remember, every one of you is only doing it to preserve the benefits you get from keeping Jim Amorin in power. You have no moral ground beneath you in this debacle. FOJs have placed their self-interest above the membership and the future of the organization. And with that, many FOJs don't seem to understand how the sausage is made, so they are even more vulnerable to manipulation by the CEO.

And this toxic hypocrisy has seeped into RNC (regional nominating committee) process too. Take Region V, for example. There was a bitterly close election on July 9th. The region selected an FOJ back in April to be in line to be considered for the NNC eventually. And then Jean Gannon, a non-FOJ, threw her hat in to compete with the FOJ candidate, much like the sham petition process I talked about. But this time, the shoe is on the opposite foot for FOJs. Because the Non-FOJ candidate was a threat to the FOJ candidate, two of the "Hateful 8" FOJs, Region V Chair Claire M. Aufrance, and Region V Vice Chair Heather Placer Mull, fought against the regional petition process because they said they believed in (paraphrased) "the sanctity of regional integrity." LOL.

In other words, the leaders of Region V believed in the "integrity" of the regional nominating process but could care less about the national nominating process. Why? Because it was convenient (and essential) to their role as FOJs. Their hypocrisy should not be lost on you as it is clearly lost on them. They readily can push aside a non-FOJ candidate but then sign the sham petition process at the national level. These are two of the FOJs who play the game well - they do as they are told by the CEO and appear to be there purely as FOJs and not as leaders to move the organization forward.

The hypocrisy that Aufrance and Mull have shown begs the question: Is this the type of people that should be anywhere near a Board of Directors position or regional leadership?

Oh, and it gets worse.

Board of Directors member Trevor Hubbard has been working the room to get the Appraisal Institute to get rid of its residential members. No one I know has any idea why. I find his efforts consistent with the disrespect and lack of attention that residential membership has experienced since the Jim Amorin era began in 2007. After all, we're still waiting for any feedback from the sham residential appraiser committee that Jim Amorin formed to help diffuse the anger of their 2016 money-grab to take all chapter funds.

Ironically, I'm told Trevor pushed Sandy, a residential appraiser candidate (even if she self-nominated) to offset the NNC vetted commercial appraiser candidate because her credentials checked the boxes that might not get the same pushback as a male commercial appraiser candidate. The hypocrisy here is that this Uber FOJ was so desperate to prevent the NNC vetted selection from being finalized that he had to use a residential appraiser to do it, despite his disdain for them - to get rid of them from the organization. This is Hubbard's second time on the sham petition process rodeo. His actions show his extreme desperation to remain relevant in the Appraisal Institute. He was willing to be a hypocrite in the sham petition process to keep himself relevant and get rid of residential appraisers.

Trevor's public anti-residential appraiser stance showed that he would happily do the bidding of Jim Amorin even if it meant using a residential appraiser to do it. There is a lot at stake here. Losing this sham petition process to Steve would jeopardize the position of all FOJs, including Trevor, whatever his beliefs about the residential versus the commercial future of the Appraisal Institute happen to be.

You can see why Trevor's idea could have legs given the big fall-off in residential membership during the Amorin era and how much SRAs have been ignored and looked down on as second-class citizens. As of now, there are only about 3,000 SRAs out of the roughly 17,000 total members. Pathetic.

Bottom Line: The FOJ gravy train stops if Sandra (FOJ backed candidate) loses and Steve (NNC vetted choice) is confirmed - to FOJs, their actions indicate they care nothing about the dues-paying hard-working membership. The CEO gravy train is all FOJs care about.

Membership has to stop the FOJ gravy train by loudly speaking out against this sham petition process right now - loud and proud. Remember that Jim Amorin scrubbed the regional contact page of all phone numbers and emails for this very reason. He knows the scrubbing was done because he and the board reads every one of my posts about The Appraisal Institute. The AI tech people report to him directly and he has chosen not to return the contact information to the website, thus demonstrating the ethics of the operations leadership of AI is basically zero.

Remember that the complacency of AI membership in the past allowed FOJs to remain in power and get quite financially comfortable. Strong action by the membership today gets FOJs out of power and the organization on the road to recovery and back to relevancy.

The Appraisal Institute is in the hands of membership now - they need to choose the right path for the future of this once great organization. Please make this moment count - it's your last chance to make yourself heard.

And here's a quick shoutout to FOJ Jeff Harris who says my writing is garbage. What can I say? I'm an outsider. If you have an issue (I'm not stopping my efforts), feel free to let me know what I got wrong - happy to keep it in confidence if you wish. AI was once an important industry player and I'd love to see it return. The transgressions in recent years have been a distraction from the mission and it impacts appraisers outside the tent too. That's what I take issue with.

The post MORE AMORIN INFLUENCE (MAI): The AI National Nominating Committee Design Is Being Attacked By FOJs first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

Don’t Miss the Unveiling of the 2021-22 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate® 6-23

Jonathan Miller — Fri, 18 Jun 2021 18:14:16 -0400

[click image for free registration]

I’m a Counselor of Real Estate (CRE) and wanted to share this….

Join The Counselors of Real Estate on June 23 for the unveiling of the 2021-22 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate®. Now in its 10th year, this signature thought leadership initiative identifies the current and emerging issues expected to have the most significant impact on all sectors of real estate. The Top Ten is developed through broad discussion, polling, and debate among 1,000 Counselors of Real Estate® and is an invaluable resource to clients of Counselors worldwide and to the real estate industry at large.

Don’t miss the countdown on June 23. Register for free here.

The post Don’t Miss the Unveiling of the 2021-22 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate® 6-23 first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

TV: Newsday Live: Hot Tips For a Hot Market: For Sellers

Jonathan Miller — Fri, 18 Jun 2021 18:09:56 -0400

I had a fun conversation with Faith Jessie, journalist and anchor at Newsday, Maura McDermott, the real estate writer at Newsday, and Monica Balsan at Daniel Gale Sotheby's International Realty. My housing data came from our Elliman Report: Long Island Sales series I author for Douglas Elliman.

The interview was placed on Newsday's home page, which was pretty cool.

Newsday Live: Hot Tips For a Hot Market: For Sellers

Newsday is the largest news publication for Long Island, New York.

The post TV: Newsday Live: Hot Tips For a Hot Market: For Sellers first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

No Diversity: 96.5% Of U.S. Appraisers Are White

Jonathan Miller — Tue, 18 May 2021 16:59:23 -0400

Over the past year, beginning with this NY Times piece: Black Homeowners Face Discrimination in Appraisals that initiated a rising progression of news stories covering discrimination in the appraisal of houses. And most recently, this CNN piece: When a Black homeowner concealed her race, her home's appraisal value doubled.

So I looked at U.S. labor force data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [BLS], which ranked the top 400 occupations by sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity. I've been an appraiser for 35 years and it's been very clear that there is nominal diversity in my profession. For users of the industry's services who have constantly complained about "appraisal shortages" (translated: a shortage of appraisers willing to work for 50% to 75% below the market rate) - here is your opportunity for action to expand our ranks.

The appraisal industry is aging out because it is hard to bring in youth. It is one of the only professions that require new entrants to have a mentor for their first two years and often without making a living, financially. One of the key reasons for this is because most financial institutions won't accept a "trainee" until they are licensed or certified with two years of experience. A "trainee" is a derogatory term applied to an appraiser that is not licensed yet. While the GSEs like Fannie and Freddie are fine with "trainees" signing reports prior to their two-year experience threshold, most banks are not. Existing appraisers are all for the difficult entry because supply and demand are in their favor. Few other professions have this two-year mentorship period before an entrant can make a living.

Accountants don't require a two year mentorship program before they can make a living. Free market conditions should let those with more experience make more money, but not zero.

As a result, entry into the appraiser profession via a mentor system essentially requires appraisers to have relatives that will hire and train them. Given the beginnings of the housing industry as explained next, you can see the problem with this approach.

The housing industry we know today was built on a foundation of racism by the federal government

...and racial covenants. No wonder why there is essentially no diversity in the appraisal profession.

[CNN: click on image]

These BLS numbers for 400 occupations show an incredible lack of diversity within the appraisal profession. In fact, U.S. appraisers were ranked dead last for diversity in the list of 400 occupations tracked by BLS with white appraisers comprising 96.5% of the industry. Here are some appraiser ratios from BLS.

And here are the 20 least diverse occupations. The appraisal industry is even less diverse than farmers & ranchers.

While The Appraisal Foundation [TAF] was created and enabled by Congress to maintain appraisal standards (ASB) and minimum qualifications (AQB) for entry into the appraisal profession, it was also created to protect the public trust. The Appraisal Foundation's attempt to address diversity has largely been in the form of "checking a box" to be able to say they are working on it. Yet the only actions they have taken were the result of recent public pressure by people like myself and others to call them out. The most glaring tone-deaf situations at TAF demonstrate how inappropriate it would be to allow TAF to lead any diversity efforts in the profession:

An African-American had never held a board seat on the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB) until 2021. In other words, for more than thirty years, the organization has existed in a racial bubble.
There have only been three women who have served on the AQB in the past 30 years.
The head of the just-formed "diversity commission" is white and male.

Since TAF has not been able to see the problem for more than three decades until outsiders pointed it out and they have continued to make decisions that demonstrate their disconnect, TAF leadership is essentially the starting point to resolve the lack of industry diversity problem. Top-down is how this gets fixed if the stakeholders in the industry actually want it fixed. We have no leadership on this issue within the industry and solving this problem has to be top-down or it won't ever be resolved.

And the news is getting worse for the appraisal industry as more and more stories like this are published yet TAF remains rudderless on diversity.

It's time for Congress to step in.

The post No Diversity: 96.5% Of U.S. Appraisers Are White first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

[WNBC] The State of New York Real Estate

Jonathan Miller — Tue, 18 May 2021 09:55:04 -0400

Adam Kuperstein at WNBC reached out to do a story on the state of the Manhattan housing market for Douglas Elliman. He got all the nuances right and featured the results of our market research. It was my first tv interview back in my Manhattan office and afterwards I realized I need to warm up my background after using my home office for the past 14 months!

The post [WNBC] The State of New York Real Estate first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

[Podcast] Masters In Business: Jonathan Miller on the Real Estate Industry

Jonathan Miller — Sat, 01 May 2021 13:09:10 -0400

This is my fourth appearance with my friend Barry Ritholtz, a prolific columnist/blogger, radio show host/podcaster, and wealth management firm head on his Masters In Business show for Bloomberg Radio. He previously interviewed me in 2014, 2016 and 2020.

Barry also posted the interview on his essential Big Picture blog: MiB: Jonathan Miller, Appraiser Extraordinaire in addition to the Bloomberg Masters In Business landing page.

To say we talk a lot about housing and valuation in a crazy market wouldn't do this fun conversation any justice. I am always thrilled to be in the company of his never-ending incredible lineup of guests.

To listen to the entire one hour and 49 minute show (sorry about that), you can go here:

The post [Podcast] Masters In Business: Jonathan Miller on the Real Estate Industry first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

Winter energy saving tip infographic

Shar Rundio — Mon, 19 Apr 2021 13:26:25 -0400

This #AskTPREG question came from someone who obviously is not from around here. The question was, what are the winter electric bills over there in your home in Phoenix.

While we really worry about our electric bills more in the summer than the winter, there are still some things you can do to help lower your energy costs through the help of electrician Bentleigh East.

Looking for a reliable and qualified service near you can be hard. There are a lot of consideration like the price and quality of work you are getting. Well if you are in Brisbane Australia you can always find a trusted electrical contractor through yellow pages or hi pages but you can’t go wrong with JTC Electric which specializes in the type of service.

Now, I am assuming you don’t want to buy a new build. New build homes today have much better energy saving features than older houses, but we put together this infographic to provide you some ways to look at winter energy savings. Switch Electrical is the best electrician Worthing has to offer.

Now remember many of these tips will help save money with your summer bill also

Turn the heat down and put on another layer. Or in the summer, turn the AC down and dress cooler.
Low-flow water heads can help when taking a shower and saving on hot water costs and use a rcc7ak water filter reviews say its the best in the market.
Clean the coils – Pull out that fridge and give the back a good dusting.
Clean your filters – Be it the furnace filter or the AC filter, make sure you replace it often. If your AC needs some repairs, you can definitely rely on your top rated ac service in Las Vegas.
Caulk the cracks – Look closely at your windows, there is all types of air getting in and out.
Pull the plug – Do you know an appliance not being used, but plugged in is still pulling electricity? If you are having problems with your circuit breakers, you can contact a licensed electrician to check it for you. Also, a simple tune up can help you save lots of energy, read the post about it at the link.
Change your bulbs – You are using CFL or LED lights, right?
Check your doors – At night, go outside with the door closed and a flashlight, have someone on the inside, also in the dark check for light as you shine a light around the doors. Often a sweep will help here.

Originally posted on Phoenix Real Estate Guy. If you are reading this anywhere but inside your RSS feed reader or your email client, the site you are on is guilty of stealing content.

Roof Installed Thanks to Atlanta solar

Shar Rundio — Wed, 14 Apr 2021 23:27:06 -0400

I recently read an article about one of the first Tesla Solar Roof installations that we have seen. It really got me thinking about the home of the future and the many changes we’ll see with so many new technologies hitting the market.

According to some of the tweets by the owner of the cool new solar roof tiles, everything turned out beautifully. As expected, the cost is higher than a more traditional roof, but a more traditional roof isn’t going to generate any power for your family to use… A traditional roof might not be as durable and typically won’t come with a lifetime warranty, either. Here’s a quote from the Tesla solar roofing web page, “Glass solar tiles are so durable they are warrantied for the lifetime of your house, or infinity, whichever comes first.”

You can also call Blue Ladder Roofing Company of Noblesville if you think your roof may have suffered hail damage!

The only reference I saw to the pricing of their new Tesla roof was this tweet saying:

After federal kickback, total price is mid 50k. We get lots and lots of sun in San Jose, and expect to produce more than we need by partnering with Alanta Solar, www.bettertomorrowsolar.com. via @toblerhaus

As expected, the new Tesla roof tiles look great. Here are a few photos shared by the proud new owner. As an update to her comment in the tweet below, it looks like they are up and running and have been given “permission to operate” from their power company.

https://twitter.com/Toblerhaus/status/977353009595269120

Who knows how long until we see a Tesla solar roof installed here in the Phoenix area, but it will be kind of cool to see the progress of these tiles, now that their actual production is more than a pipe dream.

Tesla Solar Roof Tiles -Price vs Value

To some, the Tesla solar roof tiles will not make $ense. To others, it will clearly be an easy decision as “price is only an issue in the absense of value.”

Let’s say that our friends with the fancy new roof in CA find significant value in creating their own power, in blazing trails, in knowing they have a solid roof with a lifetme warranty over their heads thanks to Pro Choice Roofing DeLand. If so, they got a heck of a deal. However, most will likely wait to purchase their cool new roof in a few years (or so) when the production ramps up, the competition takes over and the prices begin to come down.

Smart homes are coming and there’s some really cool new technologies in that space. From home automation, video surveillance, high efficiency and smarter appliances, to green technologies and construction materials, the home of the future will look, act and feel much different than it does today.

This is a crazy-cool technological world we are living in. Hang on, it’s gonna be a wild ride…

Originally posted on Phoenix Real Estate Guy. If you are reading this anywhere but inside your RSS feed reader or your email client, the site you are on is guilty of stealing content.

I Discuss The Florida-New York Housing SMACKDOWN On Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance March 12, 2021

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 17 Mar 2021 13:08:50 -0400

Last Friday I had a fun discussion with Lisa Abramowicz on Bloomberg Surveillance. It’s been bedlam in Appraiserville so I’ve been slow to post it. The New York to Florida housing migration story has been a bit one sided with optics that suggest 9 people will be left in Manhattan by the summer time despite that Manhattan contract activity beginning to surge. On the other hand Florida sales activity continues to be frenzied.

I don’t have the short clip so you have to go to the end of the full show at the 2:10:50 minute mark to pick up my interview with Lisa (but I think its worth it):

The post I Discuss The Florida-New York Housing SMACKDOWN On Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance March 12, 2021 first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

Epic Fail: The Appraisal Institute IRS 990s Show They Need To Do A 180

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 24 Feb 2021 16:38:57 -0500

As I've chronicled in the Appraiserville section of my Housing Notes newsletter since 2016, the scale of Appraisal Institute bureaucratic self-dealing of the executive committee and some members of the AI Board of Directors is breathtaking. Over the past decade or more, AI National has been able to keep a lid on the membership backlash by threatening to remove a member's credentials for speaking out. Membership has been reluctant to risk losing something they worked hard for in both time and money that they have remained quiet - until the past few years. With the significant devaluation of the SRA designation and growing signs of the MAI designation's devaluation, more are coming forward.

The FOJs (Friends of Jim Amorin) have been using that freedom from oversight to act with impunity. They are more openly corrupt now than ever because that's the only institutional memory they possess. However, we are seeing some signs that more AI Board of Directors aren't interested in rubber stamping FOJ efforts, as illustrated in the previous board meeting results.

The next board meeting is coming up tomorrow and Friday, and it is a seminal moment for the Appraisal Institute. It is where the BOD gets to vote on Jim Amorin's new contract that the entire board has not seen. As a reminder to board members: your job is to represent your membership, not the executive committee. You can't vote in favor in good conscience, if you haven't seen it or been exposed to the key terms. Your role as a member of the AI Board of Directors is critical to the Appraisal Institute's future and your responsibility is real.

The Appraisal Institute has an IRS nonprofit tax code designation: 501(c)(6) "Defined as Business leagues, chambers of commerce, real estate boards, etc., created for the improvement of business conditions."

At this point, it is hard to see this organization as "created for the improvement of business conditions." Given the long-time failure of organizational leadership as measured by the empirical data extracted from the 990s tax filings in public record shared below, this organization needs a complete makeover immediately. It starts with the current CEO.

I hope some in AI membership will use the information shared below to bring an inquiry to the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Northern District of Illinois.

Over the past few days, a detailed analysis of the Appraisal Institute's performance from 2006-2019 has gone viral within the industry. The anonymous author(s) analyzed AI National's 990 tax filings in a series of charts and tables by "Concerned Members," and you can download it here: The Appraisal Institute as Told by the 990s [click on each to expand].

The results should send an alarm to membership and the AI Board of Directors on the organization's future. The FOJs have poisoned the leadership culture, which has damaged the value of the designation brands and the organization's credibility to the business world. None of this would have been possible if designated members weren't vulnerable to the threat of losing their designations if they chose to speak out. But with the perceived value of membership declining, the fear of the threats by the organization has been diminished.

Here is my favorite chart of the 990s presentation. Current CEO Jim Amorin was made president (for the second time) in 2017. Now, look at the chart.

The following pages are the same found in the full pdf document.

Here are what the numbers tell me, as an outsider to the organization:

To offset the steady long-term membership decline (-29.2% from 2008-2019), membership dues as a percentage of total revenue rose steadily over the same period. This action kept revenue coming in. With all that newfound revenue, the FOJ AI executives and AI Board of Directors viewed this as an opportunity to lavish high salaries on all.
The data table on page 10 shows that expenses are remarkably flat, yet membership has fallen sharply over the same period. If membership falls another 7,500 over the decade, will expenses continue to remain the same?
Jim Amorin has made $1,725,003 from 2007 to 2019, yet membership has fallen 22.7% over that period. Why would his compensation increase, and why is he paid about 50% more than his peers in other organizations? I've presented these numbers in past Housing Notes. So many questions.
Revenue emphasis is shifting to rely more on dues while education programs, once a promising and prestigious revenue stream (and a cash cow for a handful of instructors that were FOJs), are losing their importance because of virtual continuing education programs. Who has been in charge during this erosion in education revenue, once a key branding strength of the Appraisal Institute?
In 2016, I got quite upset with the proposed "taking" of chapter funds, and I became an activist, yet I'm not even a member of AI. Jim Amorin made it happen in 2017 when he became president. Now given all the big salaries and excessive travel, etc., where did all that money come from? I keep thinking about all the chapters who had saved money over decades to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars, even more. We should be asking AI National: Since the 2017 "taking," how many times did AI National dip into chapter funds to plug the deficit? What is the current status of their reserves compared to before the taking? The AI Board of Directors must have the answers to these questions. Membership should demand it.

There has not been a publicly shared strategy to stem the decline in membership. Announcements of committees (like residential appraisers) were faked to quell the discord among residential members, and FOJs had no intention of taking action.

Marketing and branding have been the same old, same old, every year blah, blah, blah, which means that the organizational leadership has filtered out nearly everyone that is not a like-minded FOJ. Look at the last election debacle where the sham petition process was overtly used again by Jim Amorin to get his FOJ "Tank" installed instead of the duly nominated candidate Craig Steinley. Yet, membership pressure on the board stopped it. There is great danger to membership who are here for their designations within an organization with everyone in power being subservient to one person - a monarchy. Any new and creative thinking is not just discouraged; it is impossible.

I hope that ALL on the AI Board of Directors remember that their responsibility is to the membership and to sustain the organization's future, not the FOJs. I can only assume there may be future legal action on this overt institutional taking, and each current and past board member is exposed. If you want the Appraisal Institute to pivot in the right direction and stop the executive committee's self-dealing, please do the right thing and DO NOT extend Jim Amorin's contract. It's time to hire a CEO to lead the organization in the right direction, responsibly, ethically, and properly. If you do nothing as a board member, this will be your professional legacy as viewed your peers.

Here is a snapshot to memorialize the 2021 Appraisal Institute Board of Directors:

These are the individual pages of the full pdf document.

Rich Barton, Zillow CEO, at an Inman/Curbed party held during an Inman conference in Manhattan a long time ago, the evening before Zillow’s launch. I asked Rich, a very nice and fascinating person, what he did for a living, not realizing he was the co-founder of Expedia. Ugh. He also said they were launching their latest effort the following morning – a web site called “Zillow,” and he added “as in rhymes with pillow” to the description. Little did I know real estate would never be the same after that.

So this weekend's SNL skit on Zillow was particularly delicious with all the "pillow talk." Even Rich got a kick out of it.

Wait. Have we been marketing @zillow wrong all these years??? #SNL https://t.co/sPpx4S5ohq
— Rich Barton (@Rich_Barton) February 7, 2021

Your LOL UPDATE for February 10, 2021

Ted Alexandro Said SNL Stole His Joke, So He Asked for a Million Dollars [VICE]

Dear @SNL, since you stole my Zillow joke last night please Venmo me the sum of 1 million dollars. My full special Cut/Up is on youtube if you need more ideas. pic.twitter.com/lC3yBpcs1h
— Ted Alexandro (@tedalexandro) February 7, 2021

The post Zillow Gets Pillowed first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

Appraisal Institute Board of Directors Tried To Sneak Sham Bylaw Changes Past Membership

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 06 Jan 2021 00:26:22 -0500

Back on December 4, 2020, I wrote about the sham bylaw change being floated by the Appraisal Institute to avoid the embarrassment of the recent sham election process: The Sham 45-Day Bylaw Modification Process To Keep Jim Amorin’s Sham Petition Process Explained

To rush this through, the Appraisal Institute Board of Directors meeting is being held Wednesday, January 6th with sketchy notice.

Don Boucher, SRA and Jennifer Marshall, SRA, AI-RRS came through for membership and forwarded notice of the meeting. - send Joan an email requesting the login as presented below

_________________________________________

Dear AI Professional,

We hope that 2021 will be a happy, healthy and prosperous year for you!

Sorry about the late notice but we wanted to make sure that you know about and request an invitation to the Special Board Meeting on January 6th at 3 EST. At the Meeting, the Board will be discussing and voting on changing the Bylaws based on the recommendations in 45-Day Notice on VP Election Process and memberships comments. To request the link to attend the meeting please contact the Board Secretary, Joan Barngrover, at jbarngrover@appraisalinstitute.org.

Thanks for continuing to be proactive and staying involved.

Regards,

Don Boucher, SRA and
Jennifer Marshall, SRA, AI-RRS
_________________________________________

Everyone who reads this post and who is a member of the Appraisal Institute should attend the virtual board meeting. As members, you have the right to log in to the meeting. Here's how:

_________________________________________

Thank you for expressing your interest in attending the Special Board Call, January 6, 2:00 pm CT.

Following is the GoToMeeting connection information to observe this meeting. Please mute your phone when entering the event and please do not share your webcam. You will want to log on at least five minutes early as the meeting will begin right at 2:00 pm CT.

Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone.
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/876886637

You can also dial in using your phone.
United States: +1 (571) 317-3122
Access Code: 876-886-637

New to GoToMeeting? Get the app now and be ready when your first meeting starts:
https://global.gotomeeting.com/install/876886637.

_________________________________________

These changes being floated are so blatantly corrupt that it is beyond unethical. The purpose of these proposed bylaw edits to the existing bylaws will enable FOJs (Friends of Jim Amorin) to keep their own exclusive club paid for by the membership with salaries at 2x the market rate, first-class travel all over the world including wives and friends, and cornering control of lucrative teaching stipends as they have for the past 10+ years.

As a further sign of the lack of transparency, notification of the board meeting to vote on these sham maneuvers wasn't adequate. Some members only received notice today (Tuesday) for a board meeting on Wednesday. The cynical me believes that this meeting was timed to occur at the moment there will be a massive global media circus in Washington, D.C. (Wednesday) to decide whether to confirm the state results in the federal election. In addition, it is three days into the New Year and they were clearly counting on rushing this under the radar before people wake up from their holiday grogginess. This is a strategic move pure and simple - to continue to wrestle control of the organization from membership and it marks the beginning of the end of the Appraisal Institute.

All eyes will be on the new AI President-Elect Rodman Schley, MAI, SRA at the Board of Directors meeting - who has created a favorable reputation with the membership as someone who believes in transparency and has showed signs of pushing back against the FOJ pillaging of this once-proud organization.

This is Rodman's moment - if he allows for these sham changes without a fight and hides behind the use of "executive sessions," he will be just another annual decorative rotation in the Presidential position - Jim Amorin's posse gets to keep running AI National into the ground until it takes its last breath (in about 5 years).

Incidentally, I've been told a member has reached out to the Illinois State Attorney General for their interpretation of "executive sessions" as a tactic used by the Board of Directors to hide their actions - apparently it is not permissible because Illinois is an open session state.

At the end of the year, in the middle of the holidays, 76 Appraisal Institute members signed and sent a letter to their Board of Directors outlying what was wrong with the suggested bylaw changes in the 45-day notice letter. To wrangle 76 members in the middle of the holiday season in late December represents how upset these members were. All the signers are heroes as far as I'm concerned who care more about the future of the Appraisal Institute than its executives do.

Here it is:

Here are my thoughts on yet another sham election maneuver to ensure the continued corruption of The Appraisal Institute:

Any member of the Board of Directors who votes for these changes is corrupt and should be removed from their position immediately. They are in favor of self-dealing and not membership. The BOD should not be afraid to hide their votes.
The proposed changes are being made to enable CEO Jim Amorin to override the NNC after they thoroughly vet a candidate proposed from membership like they tried to do to Craig Steinley and failed because of the membership uproar. These bylaw edits are being made to tidy up the loopholes to make it happen next year.
The 6 year period to lockout executives after NNC membership should not be reduced to 4 years because it makes it easier for FOJ's to self-deal.
To raise the 20% board member vote requirement to 30% is a pure sham. I believe most organizations require a supermajority to override. My goodness, the absolutely embarrassing procedure to insert FOJ Tankersly instead of the NNC's Steinley thoroughly vetted nomination because Jim asked him to is unconscionable. Unconscionable that it was proposed and that Tankersly gladly accepted.
This bylaw edit more easily enables the Board of Directors and the executive team to publically smear and shame a vetted candidate who won. Guess what happens? Quality candidates won't apply anymore. Only FOJs.
This bylaw edit is clearly an act of misconduct by the board. It is a blatant abuse of power and board members who vote for these edits could very well have legal exposure in the future.
"Executive sessions" or voting in secret is unethical - if you have to hide how you voted, then something is wrong with your motivations - you see yourself as answering to Jim Amorin and not the membership - you can't have it both ways.
The proposal to ban any input on a candidate is bizarre and reflects the AI's drift towards irrelevance through self-isolation. Elected officials, competing trade groups, regulators, etc. should all be relevant to weigh in on the quality of a candidate. This proposed edit essentially dictates that a candidate has to get recommendations from FOJs for an application. Incredible.
Finally, this bylaw edit is not being done for the membership - it is being done for FOJs exclusively. Imagine Jim Amorin explaining his edits in a public meeting - membership would be booing and throwing beer cans at him for the basic audacity of it.

Over the last decade, the Appraisal Institute went from 27K members to 17K members. That's a 37% drop, trailing basic U.S. credential trends over the same period. What's AI National going to look like in another decade with only 7K members?

The membership needs to apply the heat to the Board of Directors NOW. I'm also waiting for a board member to step up and get state and federal law enforcement to look at the sham election maneuvers as evidence of corruption.

My goodness Board of Directors, are you there only to pad your resume, or are you there to uphold the responsibility of the position? If you do nothing but go along then you're just as corrupt as the FOJs.

The post Appraisal Institute Board of Directors Tried To Sneak Sham Bylaw Changes Past Membership first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

Peak Suburb Has Passed

Jonathan Miller — Mon, 28 Dec 2020 14:22:07 -0500

The New York Times got the market nuances right in their epic end of year The Real Estate Collapse of 2020.

And including epic charts makes it even better.

I noticed that the Streeteasy median rent chart used in the piece shows the same pattern as my recent chart in Bloomberg. That drop in rent is gigantic.

[Source: Bloomberg - click image to open article]

The post Peak Suburb Has Passed first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

TRD Quick Question: Jonathan Miller “What’s Happening in the NYC Real Estate Market?”

Jonathan Miller — Mon, 28 Dec 2020 13:51:12 -0500

I recently completed a quick interview with Stuart Elliott, Editor In Chief & CEO at The Real Deal who asked me questions with a uniquely mellow intensity. The Real Deal is required reading for anyone in the real estate profession or interested in real estate. Fun.

The post TRD Quick Question: Jonathan Miller “What’s Happening in the NYC Real Estate Market?” first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

NYT Real Estate: Signs of a Manhattan Rental Market Recovery

Jonathan Miller — Sat, 21 Nov 2020 12:49:18 -0500

This weekend's New York Times Real Estate Calculator column provides a visualization of the recent rental market results in The Elliman Report: October 2020 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

The Manhattan changes were the most interesting to me - record highs set for the vacancy rate, concession market share, concession amount, yoy% change in median net effective rent overall, studio, 1-bed, & 2-beds. Yet we saw for the first time in fourteen months, a jump in YOY% new lease signings and the highest October new lease signing total on record.

The significantly weaker rental market final hit a point that caused demand to begin to flood back into the market.

[click to open article]

The post NYT Real Estate: Signs of a Manhattan Rental Market Recovery first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

What About Solar Power For Your Home

Nick Bastian — Mon, 05 Oct 2020 19:36:36 -0400

Have you ever thought about using solar power for your home? Here’s a guide for air source heat pumps disadvantages and advantages

There seems to be people that love 369 Solar companies in AZ employing over 92– people.

Arizona installed the 5th most solar in 2014.

Per Elevation Solar – Homes with solar sell 20% faster and for 17% more money than homes without solar.

Their systems are owned, not leased.

If you get solar by December of 2016, there is a

Solar can save 20-50% off of normal electricity costs.

They look at solar as an equity based payment instead of a never ending interest only payment.

Go green.

Own

immediate savings
25 year warranty
Asset for your home
fixed payment
After paid for, free power
Fed and State tax credits are yours
easy to xfer at closing

Lease

long term savings
panels – 20 year warranty
system doesn’t increase in value
20 year term increases by 2.9%
leasing company keeps fed and state credits
potential issues when the home is sold

Tax credits
Federal – 30% of system cost as a federal tax credit. You can take the credit in year one or spread out for up to 3 years.
state credit flat $1000 tax credit.

You might want to choose an appraiser that is famiiar with solar power

myappraisalinstitute.org/findappraiser/green_sustainability ( bad link, see if I can find it )

Looking at information about how much owning a solar system on your home can add? Check out PV Value.

You can easily get a free quote on the cost of solar and on the potential savings.

It is important to check with your utility provider to see what they charge for power as APS and SRP have different ways they charge for power consumption. Here’s some information from SRP about solar pricing.

Here’s a video where SRP tries to justify their “fair” model for the prices they charge people who would like to save energy by utilizing solar power i their homes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAPO6-YEkUI

Originally posted on Phoenix Real Estate Guy. If you are reading this anywhere but inside your RSS feed reader or your email client, the site you are on is guilty of stealing content.

With All That PPP And Without All That Travel, The Appraisal Foundation Doesn’t Need A Grant From ASC This Year

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 19 Aug 2020 13:36:02 -0400

This post previously appeared in the August 14, 2020 edition of Housing Notes. I’ve been writing these weekly summaries on housing topics for more than five years. To subscribe for free, you can sign up here. Then you can look forward to each issue every Friday at 2pm New York Time.

The TAF decline in credibility keeps on coming…

After the recent letter debacle where the Appraisal Foundation (TAF) opined falsely that Title XI did not permit the Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC) to provide oversight on TAF, we now have a letter from TAF essentially saying they are making so much money that they don’t need a grant this year from ASC. Who is writing all these letters? It can’t be Dave.

[click for full pdf]

In other words, because TAF saved so much money from not being able to fly around the country during the pandemic, they don’t need ASC Grant money this year. From this point, it’s only a hop skip and a jump to saying they don’t need the grant money so therefore they don’t need oversight. And grant money comes with “strings attached” – that the money used from a grant had to be accounted for to the ASC. And if TAF doesn’t need oversight this year, what is to stop them from raising USPAP related fees and stop collecting grant money forever? The conspiracy theorist in me is starting to worry about that aspect of this new more forceful tone out of TAF these days against any oversight.

No Grants = TAF + PPP

Why would the TAF turn down the annual grant process but still have the need to request PPP? What is the hardship they are declaring when they are saving hundreds of thousands in travel costs that are already questionable in their scale?

My appraisal firm in Manhattan applied for PPP because our business collapsed more than 90% almost immediately for two months. It enabled us to survive. I would think it would be obvious to TAF that their $626,000 annual travel expense would collapse. What other revenues would be sharply curtailed in the new online world?

That’s why Jeremy Bagott, MAI, AI-GRS, the Cosmic Cobra guy, issued this press release on July 6th:

_____________________________________________________

* * * FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE * * *

WITH MILLIONS IN CASH AND STOCKS, APPRAISAL FOUNDATION HAULS IN CARES ACT RELIEF

(LOS ANGELES, July 6, 2020) – Over the years, the tiny, publicly funded Appraisal Foundation has built up a large reserve in cash and publicly traded equities. Its war chest grew from $3.6 million in 2010 to $6.5 million in 2018, the most recent year its IRS Form 990 is available. Its Cause IQ peer nonprofits had nothing like it in their reserves. Despite this burgeoning pot, it has continued to receive public grant money each year from state-licensed appraisers via the mandatory National Registry Fee. In early July 2020, it was learned that, despite wielding this hefty reserve and its guarantee of annual public grant money, the nonprofit also applied for and received CARES Act relief through the Small Business Administration of between $150,000 and $350,000. This is money that could otherwise have gone to struggling mom-and-pop appraisers hurt by the pandemic.

From 2010 to 2018, the nation’s licensed appraisers paid the 14-employee organization more than $6 million through the mandatory National Registry Fee. The group then parlayed that subsidy into more than $27.6 million in publishing revenue extracted from the same captive appraisers during that time. It has copyrighted the publicly subsidized materials and granted exclusive online course rights.

In 2017, the foundation paid its top officer more than $760,000 in an internal retirement-plus-salary deal that effectively doubled his pay from the previous year. For 2018, trustees paid him $414,000 – less than the previous year’s haul but still more than twice the salary of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, who oversees 20,000 employees and the nation’s central bank.

These issues would be no one’s business were this organization not receiving guaranteed annual public grants, tax-exempt status and allowed to wield a government-authorized publishing franchise and contracts with the U.S. Department of the Interior and Department of Justice – and it is now receiving PPP money. A congressionally authorized federal contractor with guaranteed public grants is not what lawmakers had in mind when they passed the CARES Act, which includes the PPP program.

During this pandemic, expect to see licensed appraisers further weakened with fewer options and higher license upkeep costs. Expect the nonprofit to further leverage its copyrights – the development of which appraisers pay for. It is now receiving CARES Act relief. It has never let a good crisis go to waste.

If you’re frustrated, here’s something you can do right away:

Email Mark Abbott, Grants Director at the Appraisal Subcommittee, at Mark@asc.gov and James Park, its Executive Director, at Jim@asc.gov and tell them you want the Appraisal Foundation’s next grant to be reduced by whatever public funding the foundation has received from the CARES Act during the pandemic and its reserves of cash and publicly traded securities, which totaled $6.5 million as of its most recent IRS Form 990. The $40 National Registry Fee paid by appraisers each year ($80 at biennial license renewal) needs to be rolled back by a commensurate amount to provide relief to appraisers. The waste and abuse going on at this tiny nonprofit is being underwritten by the public and it needs to stop. Please cc Arthur Lindo at the Federal Reserve at arthur.lindo@frb.gov.

* * *

About “Dispatches from the Cosmic Cobra Breeding Farm”: The culmination of two years of research, a new book illuminates over-the-top spending and questionable dealings at the familiar Beltway nonprofit. Published just before the pandemic, it chronicles international jet-setting by officers and trustees, conflicts of interest, lobbyist tie-ins, outsized cash reserves and swollen pay at the tiny nonprofit. The book is available at Amazon in paperback and Kindle versions. You can read more about it on the book’s Amazon page.

The Appraisal Foundation’s IRS Form 990 may be viewed online at Propublica’s Nonprofit Explorer. To find it, Google “Propublica Nonprofit Explorer” and type “Appraisal Foundation” into the search box and follow the links.

# # #

____________________________________________________________________

Here is another email from appraiser Jeremy Bagott (The Cosmic Cobra guy). Bold my emphasis.

___________________________________

Dear Colleague,

Thanks to the Small Business Administration’s data release on July 6, a few news outlets are working doggedly to expose organizations that, with dubious need, have applied for and received federal PPP relief. Ryan Tracy of the Wall Street Journal recently wrote about double-dipping by state highway contractors in Florida who applied for and received PPP relief despite holding government contracts unaffected by Covid. You can read the story here (but you’ll have to get past the Journal’s paywall).

A rogues’ gallery of organizations that have applied for PPP relief include Harvard University (with its $39 billion endowment), the Los Angeles Lakers of the National Basketball Association (with its reported $3.7 billion valuation) and, yes, the congressionally authorized Appraisal Foundation. The former two were shamed into giving the money back once the matter was made public.

Unlike Harvard and the L.A. Lakers, survival of the Appraisal Foundation and its paid panels is literally guaranteed in a federal statute. The statute mandates its guaranteed annual government grants. The making of the grants is part of the Appraisal Subcommittee’s charter. According to its IRS Form 990 for 2018, the most recent available, the Appraisal Foundation spent $626,000 on travel that year. (If past years are any measure, some of it was on international junkets for top officers and favored trustees.) It no longer has that travel expenditure due to the pandemic. The foundation also had $6.5 million in cash and publicly traded equities, according to its 2018 tax form. Why did it apply for between $150,000 and $350,000 in PPP relief?

If you now google “Appraisal Foundation” and “PPP,” the top hit is a CNN Politics site that identifies the Appraisal Foundation as a nonprofit that has applied for and received PPP funding. You can see it here. The Wall Street Journal and CNN are doing God’s work in this respect.

If you’re frustrated, here’s something you can do right away:

Email Mark Abbott, Grants Director at the Appraisal Subcommittee, at Mark@asc.gov and James Park, its Executive Director, at Jim@asc.gov and tell them you want the Appraisal Foundation’s next grant to be reduced by whatever public funding the foundation has received from the CARES Act during the pandemic and its reserves of cash and publicly traded securities. The $40 National Registry Fee paid by appraisers each year ($80 at biennial license renewal) needs to be rolled back by a commensurate amount to provide relief to appraisers during the pandemic. The waste and abuse going on at this nonprofit is being underwritten by appraisers (who are also voters and taxpayers). It needs to stop. Please cc Arthur Lindo at the Federal Reserve at arthur.lindo@frb.gov.

Best regards,

Jeremy Bagott, MAI, AI-GRS
jbagott@gmail.com

The post With All That PPP And Without All That Travel, The Appraisal Foundation Doesn’t Need A Grant From ASC This Year first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

The ‘Urban To Suburban’ Narrative Is Really ‘Manhattan To Suburban’

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 19 Aug 2020 13:26:59 -0400

This post previously appeared in the August 14, 2020 edition of Housing Notes. I've been writing these weekly summaries on housing topics for more than five years. To subscribe for free, you can sign up here. Then you can look forward to each issue every Friday at 2pm New York Time.

The New York Times created a terrific graphic on our Elliman New Signed Contract Report by illustrating the performance of Manhattan and Brooklyn versus Westchester County. Brooklyn's sales market performance is closer to Westchester than it is to its city counterpart.

The post The ‘Urban To Suburban’ Narrative Is Really ‘Manhattan To Suburban’ first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

Quid Pro Quo: The Right Candidate Got Elected And Corrupt Leadership Got To Keep Their Sham Election Maneuver

Jonathan Miller — Sat, 08 Aug 2020 18:19:10 -0400

Yesterday's AI Public Airing Of The Sham Election Process was a dark day for the institution but a bright day for the good guys. The actual selection of Craig Steinley after he won the national nominating committees' endorsement took literally thousands of members to apply pressure to the BoD. Thankfully it worked.

However, in order to enable the Board of Directors to do the right thing, they got to keep the sham petition process in place. Membership will have to go through this all over again next year and every year that Jim Amorin stays as CEO. Look for Tankersley to shame himself again next year.

The feedback I received from membership who watched this carnival was patently negative. The Board of Directors meeting came across as disorganized, tech-averse, and embarrassing. At the moment, they have shown they are clearly not our industry's leader.

The presentations by Tankersley and Steinley couldn't have been more different.

Tankersley

First, Tankersley's bloviating about how tight he is with the board was really awful. I still can't get over that someone with his credentials doesn't appear to have any shame for agreeing to be a player in the sham petition process. It's only purpose is to overrule the vetting by the NNC so that Amorin can get his lackey's in. At no time in the five weeks, I've been chronicling this debacle has AI Leadership provided a specific reason for the need for this sham petition process.

Here were a few nuggets from this Amorin lackey.

“Times like this bring out the best in people or the worst in people” LOL

"Open your eyes to what the possibilities are for this organization" LOL

How embarrassing.

Tankersley emphasized he is a team builder which is obviously false for the fact he is a candidate in this sham election process. He wants to expand the education delivery yet that ship has sailed. He wants to examine the financial structure to which I ask, why? The whole purpose of this sham election is to keep the yes-men like him in the pipeline so they can travel first class with wives, friends, and family around the world. The lack of ethics here is absolutely unconscionable.

It should be noted that Tankersley criticized Steinley directly which revealed that he is not a teambuilder. The feedback has been that the Execs/BOD gave him pure softball questions so he could answer them and even with that, he was cringe-worthy.

Steinley

Why bother going into details? The man was relaxed and the consummate professional. His performance was clearly proof as to why he was selected by NNC over Tankersley. He is what the Appraisal Institute needs to finally get AI National moving in the right direction.

Steinley was announced as the winner by the Appraisal Institute yesterday:

The post Quid Pro Quo: The Right Candidate Got Elected And Corrupt Leadership Got To Keep Their Sham Election Maneuver first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

THE CON Episode 1 Debuted This Week And It Was Compelling Because Good Appraisers Lived That Hell Too

Jonathan Miller — Sat, 08 Aug 2020 18:15:40 -0400

Although I've shared the following CNBC clip before, it's worth showing again given my 15-year ago hairstyle. In 2005, I was interviewed by CNBC in the midst of the Housing Bubble and said that 75% of the appraisals being done then weren't worth the paper they were written on (hey it was 2005 and they were done on paper, not pdf). They found me because I had just started my Matrix Blog because no one seemed to be listening to appraisers. Incidentally as of this week, Matrix is 15 years old!!!

And the October Research stats presented indicating that 55% of appraisers felt pressure to hit the value rose to 90% in the next year! The outlook was dire.

When I was interviewed, I was trying to keep it together because I assumed my business and my livelihood would be gone by 2008 if things continued. Thoughts about supporting my family of 4 sons and making my mortgage payments loomed large, but I couldn't be morally flexible unlike many of my local peers who thrived as a result. Most lenders and mortgage brokers didn't care about valuation quality, just hitting the numbers to make the deal. The appraisal profession became seen as one of "deal enablers" instead of neutral valuation benchmark setters. My big competitors at the time (who were part of the 75%), told me essentially: "Aw Miller, You Don't Get It." No, I didn't. All my "75% competitors" during that era lost their licenses and/or went out of business after Lehman collapsed in 2008.

This is why this new documentary "THE CON" means so much to me. It tells the story that "good appraisers" like me and my firm have never been able to tell. Instead, good appraisers have been lumped in with the bad appraisers who are long gone.

Watch for my appearance along with several of my colleagues around the country in this week's episode 2!

Think too much risk was the reason for the 2008 financial crisis? Nope. Unmitigated greed and systematic fraud are the real issues — and no one’s discussing them…. Until now. @theconseries is now available on virtual cinema: thecon.tv/watch #TheCon

Beginning now, you can watch entire THE CON series, episodes 1-5 through a network of independent cinema outlets.

Watch Last week's Episode 1

The post THE CON Episode 1 Debuted This Week And It Was Compelling Because Good Appraisers Lived That Hell Too first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

The Previous Victim Of The Appraisal Institute Sham Election Maneuver Shares What Happened

Jonathan Miller — Sat, 25 Jul 2020 17:25:08 -0400

This post previously appeared in the July 24, 2020 edition of Housing Notes. I've been writing these weekly summaries on housing topics for more than five years. To subscribe for free, you can sign up here. Then you can look forward to each issue every Friday at 2pm New York Time.

Here's a shoutout to Jim Amorin and Leslie Sellers as you are reading this right now - - here's a refresher on Appraisal Institute history...

Like Craig Steinley, the 2007 victim of the unethical petition process I've covered over the previous two weeks, Anne L. Johnson was selected by the nominating committee to be Vice President after being vetted against a number of candidates. This sham petition process was implemented to get Leslie Sellers (he voted for himself after not making the cut with the nominating committee) on track to later become President and then led AI to exit TAF without a legitimate explanation - it caused me to quit and accelerated the deterioration of the once-great organization, essentially screwing its own membership by fostering its growing irrelevance.

To be clear, I want the Appraisal Institute to either thrive or get out of the way of the appraisal industry. This corrupt behavior is going to continue and the operations executives will keep overruling the voice of the membership, so that leadership can keep enjoying high pay and expensive perks, inappropriate to an organization that has lost a third of its membership over the decade, a steeper decline than credentialed U.S. appraisers. There is one thing they are doing now that should be good for appraisers - more on that next week. But any good continues to be overshadowed by current behavior that is corrosive to organizational credibility.

Unless this petition process is removed from the bylaws, the deterioration in credibility will continue.

To current Board Members, please pick one:

Are you:

A. simply sheep that sit on the board to pad your resume and remain afraid to make any move that gets the operational executives mad? or
B. an industry leader who knows right from wrong and can see the corruption right in front of you and are willing to do something about it to rebuild long-term organization integrity?

But I digress again...

Anne L. Johnson lays the situation out in her July 21, 2020 note that was sent in support of Craig Steinley, the current (only legitimate) nominating committee choice. I'm sure all board members are aware of this dark moment in Appraisal Institute history more than a decade ago and now is the time to start asking questions and demonstrate integrity. Fingers crossed.

So I've made my case. Now here is how members of the Appraisal Institute can take action NOW.

A plan of action has been laid out professionally by the North Texas Chapter and is not being critical of the Board of Directors.

Clicking on the image will take you to the CALL TO ACTION web site.

[click on image to go to the CALL TO ACTION link]

The post The Previous Victim Of The Appraisal Institute Sham Election Maneuver Shares What Happened first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

The Appraisal Institute Has Missed The Opportunity To Come Clean With Its Members

Jonathan Miller — Mon, 13 Jul 2020 09:35:17 -0400

This post previously appeared in the July 10, 2020 edition of Housing Notes. I've been writing these weekly summaries on housing topics for more than five years. To subscribe for free, you can sign up here. Then you can look forward to each issue every Friday at 2pm New York Time.

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UPDATE JULY 13, 2020

The Appraisal Institute felt it was necessary to write a letter to respond to my original July 3rd post: The Appraisal Institute Ignores Its Membership For Third Time In Sham Election Maneuver. Their response letter was surprisingly amateur and showed how little they respect their membership. Read on.

UPDATE JULY 16, 2020

I have just been told that Michael Tankersley did NOT serve on this year’s Nominating Committee. He was a candidate for the Vice President position. The note below has been updated to reflect that.

Although Steinley was the - SOLE - duly vetted and selected candidate of the nominating committee, somehow the board had to go through a secret, 6-out-of-24 “process” to place Tankersley back onto the ballot after not being the selection of the nominating committee. Why?

The Appraisal Institute at a crossroads. To all those who have nothing to hide, hide nothing. The sham petition process was hidden from the Appraisal Institute's membership. In response to my initial call out of this sham election process last week, the Appraisal Institute attempted slip this by membership using a highly disrespectful "fogging" letter from the current president. It insultingly omits all the critical issues that have roiled membership while rambling on and on about process and assuming the membership isn't very smart. No matter how much they try, AI leadership behavior in this sham election process is unethical and does not serve the membership whatsoever.

Here’s a reminder to the Board of Directors: you serve the membership, no matter who you pledged your allegiance to when you signed up for this gig. Please honor your commitment to them and your commitment to honor and integrity as leaders of the industry. For at least the last decade, this once-proud organization is a shadow of its past because of self-dealing from the same people we are witnessing now. It is up to you to do the right thing and act like the leaders you can be.

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Original Post

Today, all (I assume) members of the Appraisal Insitute received a letter from current AI president Jeff Sherman, with whom I've met and spoken with on several occasions during his tenure and liked him and what he represented. MAI members from around the country have forwarded it to me and expressed their profound disappointment in this organization that they used to love.

Here is the consensus feedback by members who received this letter.

It just makes me sad that this is the way it is. I think many of us are a bit dumbstruck by this.

I found the letter mind-boggling and a simply attempt to fog the issue at hand. I have to assume that this was written by AI counsel because it reads like a lawyer's writing with a little softening from other parties. I will also assume this response was directed by the current CEO in an attempt to stop the viral membership backlash of the sham election process that has rattled the organization so he can continue to control who future presidents are. So I am very confused as to why Jeff signed off on this letter since its contents contradict what I have been told by past presidents, past board members, and current members. It hurt to read it.

For now, I am going to chalk this up to "fogging" so that the actual logic gets buried in the debris. This is how lawyers do this. By the way, has anyone ever considering sending the details of this action and the past ten years of self-dealing to federal prosecutors in the Northern District of Illinois? If this is how their executives run the organization, and all the perks I keep hearing about, it makes me wonder about the state of their finances. The handling of the FMC debacle comes to mind.

But I digress.

Here is my running commentary on the letter that is presented below:

This sham election maneuver has not been in place since 1991 - Ask the former president who made this happen (I have the name) under oath to get Sellers on the ladder in the first place and ruin the career of a star female nominee.
An 11 member nominating committee gets to vet candidates recommended by the membership to review and they are charged with picking the best one and then announce it. They vetted 3 this year and picked one. It's literally that simple.
The winning candidate's name was announced by the nominating committee.

And then magically...

The sham maneuver was made to get the CEO's pick inserted which should never happen.
Tell the membership right now why there is a second candidate.
I've been told repeatedly that a board member can vote for themselves in the petition process and as of today, some current board members are fighting like hell to keep any such votes hidden from membership, presumably so potential self-dealing will not be exposed.
To repeat, one person was selected by the nominating committee and two weren't. There is no disagreement on this. Why does the CEO get to pick a candidate that was not selected to run against the person who was selected?

Why are there suddenly two nominees without any transparency? This letter does not address this point at all yet it is the entire point. The rest of the letter is faux transparency. Give the membership the actual reason there are suddenly two candidates, one picked by the nominating committee and one picked by the CEO (and that CEO-blessed candidate should be ashamed of themselves).

As many as 3,000 members will get to watch the 10-minute presentations of two candidates - one vetted by the nominating committee and one hand-picked by Jim Amorin. The act of showing this on video isn't transparency at all. It's a charade. The most deceitful part of the petition process has already occurred before the camera was turned on. There is no explanation of how the second candidate was selected.

The fogging part that is most distasteful in this letter is that it is laden with process gobblygook but contains zero transparency, something the membership is demanding right now.

Here is the closing paragraph of the letter.

I now offer to you, and to each Board member, this is not about style or personality; it must be about the best interests of the Appraisal Institute. I have supreme confidence that the trust you have placed in your elected representatives will be confirmed, regardless of the person chosen.

The problem with this closing statement is this sham election process is not being done in the best interests of the membership, but rather it is being done in the best interests of the operational executives running the show.

This is truly a sad day for the Appraisal Institute. If the board does not fight for the rights of the membership and respect the selection process, then the organization as we know it is just a monarchy, largely like when it began to be a decade ago with the same cast of characters.

The post The Appraisal Institute Has Missed The Opportunity To Come Clean With Its Members first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

[Spectrum TV/NY1] Stuy Town Vacancies Surge 7/6/20

Jonathan Miller — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 08:34:46 -0400

Michael Herzenberg of NY1 did a great story on the exodus from Stuy Town after the landlord provided terms for people to break their leases. The story was inspired by a press release from CHIP (I haven't seen) which talked about the pandemic exodus as the reason for the rising vacancies. I thought that was a bit of hyperbole since the other key factor has been the inability of the real estate brokerage industry to do in-house showings by state mandate until June 22nd. The lack of mobility has also been a key factor in driving vacancy higher.

The post [Spectrum TV/NY1] Stuy Town Vacancies Surge 7/6/20 first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.