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Injury Notes: Cronenworth, Cruz, Baz, Odorizzi

Mark Polishuk — Fri, 17 Sep 2021 03:45:30 +0000

After suffering a small fracture in his left ring finger after being hit by a Julio Urias pitch on September 10, Jake Cronenworth’s status was in question, though the Padres were holding off putting Cronenworth on the injured list. It now looks like the utilityman will return this week for the Padres’ critical series with the Cardinals, San Diego manager Jayce Tingler told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters. The versatile Cronenworth has mostly played second base and shortstop this season, and Tingler said that Cronenworth could see action at both positions as well as some first base time.

Between an All-Star appearance this season and a second-place finish in the 2020 NL Rookie Of The Year vote, Cronenworth has emerged as a big force in San Diego’s lineup. Beyond just his multi-positional ability, the 27-year-old has also batted .274/.350/.369 with 24 homers in his first 773 plate appearances at the MLB level, and this season took another step forward by hitting left-handed pitching almost as well as he has performed against right-handers. Though Cronenworth (like pretty many of the Padres) had been in a hitting slump over the last few weeks, he had collected two hits in each of the three games prior to his injury.

More injury updates from around baseball….

Nelson Cruz left tonight’s game due to a right forearm contusion after being hit by a Tyler Alexander pitch. X-rays were negative on Cruz, and Rays manager Kevin Cash told The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin (Twitter link) and other reporters that the slugger should be “fully available” for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers. That said, Cruz might not play just for precautionary reasons and because Cash said Cruz might have been due for an off-day even before the minor injury. After being acquired in a July trade with the Twins, Cruz got off to a slow start in Tampa, but has started to heat up again over the last couple of weeks.
After Shane Baz was scratched from a Triple-A start today, there was speculation that the Rays might give the star pitching prospect his big league debut during this series against Detroit. However, reporter Patrick Kinas tweets that Baz was actually scratched due to back spasms, though the issue might only sideline Baz for a few days. Baz has only continued to impress since making his Triple-A debut earlier this season, as the right-hander has a 1.76 ERA and a very impressive strikeout (36%) and walk (6.2%) rates over 46 innings with the Durham Bulls. MLB Pipeline ranks Baz as the 20th-best prospect in the game, and he stands out as a very intriguing x-factor of a weapon for the Rays heading into the playoffs.
The Astros placed Jake Odorizzi on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a foot injury, and Odorizzi more directly described the issue to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) as “a mid-foot sprain.” The injury was caused by a “flukey” bad step that forced Odorizzi out of Monday’s game in the second inning. Fortunately, Odorizzi didn’t think the problem was serious, and the right-hander believes he’ll be able to return from the IL when first eligible on September 24.

Phillies Notes: Harper, Gregorius, Neris

Mark Polishuk — Fri, 17 Sep 2021 02:16:55 +0000

Trailing 7-0 after three innings against the Cubs today, the Phillies ended up rolling to a 17-8 blowout win. Several players contributed to the offensive explosion, though Bryce Harper again had a big game, walking twice and going 3-for-4 with two doubles and a three-run homer. Harper is now batting .314/.428/.627 with 33 home runs over 532 plate appearances, and he already entered today’s action with the highest fWAR (5.9) of any National League player. While Fernando Tatis Jr. and Trea Turner may have something to say about the NL MVP race over the last few weeks of the season, Harper is making a strong case for the second MVP Award of his career.

Of course, Harper’s case will be helped if he can sneak the Phillies into the playoffs. Today’s win brought Philadelphia three games behind the Braves in the NL East, and 2.5 games behind the Cardinals in the very crowded race for the second NL wild card spot.

The latest from Philly….

“It’s been frustrating basically the whole year with what’s going on,” Didi Gregorius told Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer, as the shortstop said a misdiagnosed elbow injury and then lingering elbow soreness have led to his underwhelming performance. Gregorius spent over six weeks of the season on the injured list due to a form of arthritis in his right elbow known as pseudogout, though he was initially listed as having only an elbow impingement, and the pseudogout diagnosis wasn’t known until Gregorius had already missed around three weeks. Even after returning from the IL on July 2, the Phillies shortstop said he continues to feel lingering soreness in his elbow. Gregorius said his personal doctor felt that a COVID-19 vaccine could be responsible for the elbow issues, as Gregorius said the soreness developed shortly after he was vaccinated in late April. However, Gregorius also noted that his doctor “didn’t give me like 100%” certainty that the vaccine was the cause, and Breen quotes two other medical experts who state that there was little to no evidence that vaccination would lead to gout or pseudogout, and certainly not a case that continues to linger for months. (Breen writes that the Phillies “declined to comment on Gregorius’ claim about the vaccine.”) Gregorius’ own doctors have recommended an arthroscopic procedure to fix his elbow once and for all, though somewhat curiously, Gregorius hasn’t yet discussed offseason treatment plans with the Phillies or their medical staff. Gregorius came into today’s action hitting only .217/.276/.377 over 351 plate appearances.
In another COVID-related item, the Phillies announced that 85% of players and staff at the big league and Triple-A levels have been fully vaccinated. This meets the league threshold for relaxed coronavirus protocols, such as less social distancing within the clubhouse and less travel restrictions. The exact number of MLB teams to meet the 85% threshold isn’t officially known, though the Phils are known to be one of the last teams to reach that number.
Hector Neris is a free agent this winter but “I have been available all the time” for a potential reunion with the Phillies, the reliever tells The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. The struggling Phils bullpen figures to undergo a major overhaul, so re-signing Neris could be a possibility just because he has pitched well on the whole this year, if not well enough to keep his job as closer back in June. Neris has posted a very strong 31.4% strikeout rate but a below-average 9.5% walk rate while posting a 3.39 ERA over 63 2/3 innings. Neris is open about pitching in any bullpen role with his next team, saying “You have to try to help the team where you are….If you are flexible, if you are a guy a team can use everywhere, you are more valuable.”

Phillies Notes: Realmuto, Gregorius, Neris

Mark Polishuk — Fri, 17 Sep 2021 02:16:55 +0000

Trailing 7-0 after three innings against the Cubs today, the Phillies ended up rolling to a 17-8 blowout win. It wasn’t a perfect day for the Phillies, however, as J.T. Realmuto is “sore” after being hit by a pitch in his left elbow/triceps area, manager Joe Girardi told NBC Sports’ Jim Salisbury and other reporters. X-rays were negative on Realmuto though he might be held out of the lineup tomorrow as a precaution.

Realmuto already had to hit out Tuesday’s game after receiving an injection in his bothersome right shoulder, and needless to say, the Phillies can hardly afford to lose one of their best hitters while in the thick of the playoff race. Realmuto was 1-for-4 with two RBI in today’s victory, bumping his slash line up to .267/.353/.443 over 479 plate appearances this season.

The latest from Philly….

“It’s been frustrating basically the whole year with what’s going on,” Didi Gregorius told Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer, as the shortstop said a misdiagnosed elbow injury and then lingering elbow soreness have led to his underwhelming performance. Gregorius spent over six weeks of the season on the injured list due to a form of arthritis in his right elbow known as pseudogout, though he was initially listed as having only an elbow impingement, and the pseudogout diagnosis wasn’t known until Gregorius had already missed around three weeks. Even after returning from the IL on July 2, the Phillies shortstop said he continues to feel lingering soreness in his elbow. Gregorius said his personal doctor felt that a COVID-19 vaccine could be responsible for the elbow issues, as Gregorius said the soreness developed shortly after he was vaccinated in late April. However, Gregorius also noted that his doctor “didn’t give me like 100%” certainty that the vaccine was the cause, and Breen quotes two other medical experts who state that there was little to no evidence that vaccination would lead to gout or pseudogout, and certainly not a case that continues to linger for months. (Breen writes that the Phillies “declined to comment on Gregorius’ claim about the vaccine.”) Gregorius’ own doctors have recommended an arthroscopic procedure to fix his elbow once and for all, though somewhat curiously, Gregorius hasn’t yet discussed offseason treatment plans with the Phillies or their medical staff. Gregorius came into today’s action hitting only .217/.276/.377 over 351 plate appearances.
In another COVID-related item, the Phillies announced that 85% of players and staff at the big league and Triple-A levels have been fully vaccinated. This meets the league threshold for relaxed coronavirus protocols, such as less social distancing within the clubhouse and less travel restrictions. The exact number of MLB teams to meet the 85% threshold isn’t officially known, though the Phils are known to be one of the last teams to reach that number.
Hector Neris is a free agent this winter but “I have been available all the time” for a potential reunion with the Phillies, the reliever tells The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. The struggling Phils bullpen figures to undergo a major overhaul, so re-signing Neris could be a possibility just because he has pitched well on the whole this year, if not well enough to keep his job as closer back in June. Neris has posted a very strong 31.4% strikeout rate but a below-average 9.5% walk rate while posting a 3.39 ERA over 63 2/3 innings. Neris is open about pitching in any bullpen role with his next team, saying “You have to try to help the team where you are….If you are flexible, if you are a guy a team can use everywhere, you are more valuable.”

Starting Pitcher Chart – September 17th, 2021

Paul Sporer — Fri, 17 Sep 2021 01:50:00 +0000

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

September 17th Starter Chart

PITCHER	TM	OPP	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Walker Buehler	LAD	at CIN	x	x	x	3.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.306 – 21st	6 ER dud at SF is his only start over 4 ER this yr
Zack Wheeler	PHI	at NYM	x	x	x	4.32 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.337 – 3rd	Not worried about elevated ERA in L5
Logan Webb	SFG	ATL	x	x	x	2.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.312 – 16th	Putting finishing touches on a brilliant season
Luis Castillo	CIN	LAD	x	x	x	3.06 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.294 – 24th	Not the best matchup, but I can’t see sitting him
Chris Sale	BOS	BAL	x	x	x	2.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.314 – 14th	Ugly WHIP isn’t a deterrent
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진	TOR	MIN	x	x	x	6.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.276 – 29th	Struggling w/2 7 ER stinkers in L5, but I’m still starting
Chris Flexen 플렉센	SEA	at KCR	x	x	x	3.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.308 – 20th	Quietly enjoying a very solid season
Dylan Cease	CWS	at TEX	x	x	x	5.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.322 – 11th	Last start really pushing the ERA, 3.00 in other 4
Adrian Houser	MIL	CHC	x	x	x	1.82 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.320 – 13th	Only 6 ER in his last 7 outings (37 IP)
Cole Irvin	OAK	at LAA		x	x	7.04 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 4% K-BB	.293 – 26th	Still worth throwing in favorable matchups like this
Taylor Hearn	TEX	CWS		x	x	3.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.352 – 8th	Tough matchup, but streamers are inherently risky
Taijuan Walker	NYM	PHI		x	x	5.59 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.329 – 5th	Has gone 6+ IP in 5 of last 6
Zach Plesac	CLE	at NYY		x	x	3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.324 – 8th	Underwhelmed this yr, but usable streamer
Brady Singer	KCR	SEA		x	x	3.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.293 – 25th	L7 ER shows volatility: 7, 5, 2, 1, 1, 0, 6
Luis Patiño	TBR	DET		x	x	4.57 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.310 – 17th	Inconsistent IP totals make him a complete wildcard
Elieser Hernandez	MIA	PIT		x	x	4.74 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.290 – 27th	AVG’ing <5 IP in L5 w/a 2.2 HR9; matchup is the only positive
Ian Anderson	ATL	at SFG			x	4.71 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 1% K-BB	.330 – 4th	Don’t be afraid to play it safe here & pass
Miles Mikolas	STL	SDP			x	6.04 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.269 – 30th	Matchup & desperation would be the only reasons to stream
Michael Pineda	MIN	at TOR				3.92 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.355 – 1st	Never TOR is a standing rule in streaming for me
Josiah Gray	WAS	COL				7.88 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.315 – 15th	Just too many HR to trust this late in the season
Wil Crowe	PIT	at MIA				8.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.273 – 29th	Matchup not enough to lure me in here
Casey Mize	DET	at TBR				3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.308 – 19th	Back on the managed IP plan probably rest of the way
Corey Kluber	NYY	CLE				7.98 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.297 – 23rd	Not nearly enough upside to risk this
Madison Bumgarner	ARI	at HOU				5.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.372 – 4th	5 ER in each of the last 3 outings
Keegan Akin	BAL	at BOS				4.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.298 – 22nd	Your ratios will likely be Akin if you take this gamble
Vince Velasquez	SDP	at STL				12.23 ERA, 2.27 WHIP, 2% K-BB	.309 – 18th	He’s a Padre now?!?! Still unusable
Zach Davies	CHC	at MIL				7.71 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.320 – 14th	No
Kyle Freeland	COL	at WAS				5.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.383 – 1st	No Ks, brutal matchup, hard pass

*road vR for COL

Shohei Ohtani Battling Arm Soreness, Might Not Pitch For Rest Of The Season

Mark Polishuk — Fri, 17 Sep 2021 00:41:59 +0000

Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch during the Angels’ three-game series with the Athletics, though the two-way star had been tentatively slated to start tomorrow’s series opener. Angels manager Joe Maddon told MLB.com’s Ryan Herrera and other reporters that Ohtani came away with a sore arm after a game of catch on Wednesday, so the team will keep him from pitching so his condition can be further monitored. Ohtani will continue to regularly serve as the Angels’ DH, though it is possible Ohtani may have pitched his last game of 2021.

While the situation “hasn’t gotten there yet” in terms of shutting Ohtani down as a pitcher, Maddon said “we just have to wait and see” if Ohtani could take the hill for the 22nd time this season.

“He’ll continue to do his thing and be playing catch, and then we’ll determine if he feels good enough to [pitch] again,” Maddon said. “So I don’t know. I think he can, but we’ve been caught in these circumstances a lot this year.”

There isn’t much left for the Angels to play for this season, so it wouldn’t make much sense for the team to take a risk with Ohtani during what has already been an injury-riddled campaign for the Halos. Losing Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon for the majority of the season spelled doom for a club that needed all the offensive help it could get considering the Angels’ pitching and defensive struggles.

The one big bright spot has been Ohtani’s season for the ages. Combining excellent pitching with elite offense, Ohtani has a 3.36 ERA and 28.8% strikeout rate over 115 1/3 innings on the mound this year, and a .254/.336/.599 slash line and 44 home runs over 564 plate appearances. This incredible performance has evoked comparisons to Babe Ruth, turned Ohtani into a household name, and made him the presumptive frontrunner for the AL MVP Award.

Quite a bit of Ohtani’s production, however, came in the first half of the season. Ohtani has hit only .191/.331/.376 with seven home runs over his last 172 PA, and his most recent pitching outing (on September 10) saw him allow six runs over 3 1/3 innings of work against the Astros. Some decline was probably inevitable given Ohtani’s meteoric start, and his unique workload in staying prepared to both pitch and regularly hit against Major League competition.

Ohtani also pitched only 1 2/3 innings total in 2019-20 due to injuries, including a recovery from Tommy John surgery. That said, whatever wear and tear Ohtani might be feeling has seemingly impacted his bat more than his arm. Apart from that one mediocre start against the Astros, Ohtani has otherwise posted a 2.20 ERA over 45 innings since the All-Star break.

Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

Mark Polishuk — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 23:00:33 +0000

The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game. While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres. St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season. The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation. Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction. For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy. However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason. It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries. It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August. Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals). With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry. The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins. While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions. The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way. Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division. (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.) Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September. The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/16/21

Mark Polishuk — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 21:18:57 +0000

The latest minor moves from around baseball….

The Athletics announced that Burch Smith has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A, after clearing waivers. Smith was designated for assignment two days ago, and while he could have elected free agency (as a player who has been previously outrighted in his career), the 31-year-old will remain in the Oakland organization. Smith has a 5.40 ERA over 43 1/3 relief innings this season, as while Smith has cut down on the home runs and walks that plagued him earlier in his career, he is missing far fewer bats than usual in 2021. Smith has only a 14.9% strikeout rate this season, after posting a 23.1% strikeout rate over his first 147 2/3 innings in the majors.
The Nationals announced that infielder Adrian Sanchez cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A. Like Smith, Sanchez also could have declined the assignment since he was previously outrighted, as the Nats cut him from their 40-man last October. Sanchez was DFA’ed earlier his week after hitting .257/.316/.314 over 38 plate appearances for Washington, all since being added to the active roster following the trade deadline. Though he just turned 31 last month, Sanchez is already in his 14th season in the Nationals organization, appearing in 106 Major League games since the start of the 2017 season.

Rangers Designate Hyeon-jong Yang For Assignment

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 20:39:56 +0000

TODAY: Yang has been outrighted to Triple-A Round Rock, the Rangers announced.

SEPTEMBER 15: The Rangers announced they’ve designated southpaw Hyeon-jong Yang for assignment. The move creates space on the 40-man roster for corner outfielder/designated hitter Willie Calhoun, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

Yang has been on and off the big league roster a few times this season. The 33-year-old signed a minor league deal with Texas over the offseason after a generally strong 14-year career with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization. The Rangers selected Yang to the majors a few weeks into the season but he was designated for assignment around six weeks later. He’s since been back for a pair of brief stints on the MLB roster.

Working in a swing role, Yang has tossed 35 1/3 frames of 5.60 ERA ball. He’s posted worse than average strikeout and walk numbers (15.6% and 10%, respectively) while struggling to miss bats at the big league level. Yang has an identical 5.60 ERA in 45 Triple-A innings, although he’s posted better strikeout, walk and swinging strike numbers in the minors.

Calhoun returns after missing nearly three months upon fracturing his left hand on a hit-by-pitch. Injuries have mostly derailed his past couple seasons, as the 26-year-old hasn’t managed to build upon the offensive progress he showed back in 2019. The final few weeks of this year will be big for Calhoun, who is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. Manager Chris Woodward recently suggested Calhoun’s lack of playing time lately could make determining whether to tender him a contract a difficult decision, so he’ll look to make that an easier call for the front office with a strong finish to the season.

Seattle To Host All-Star Game In 2023

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 20:23:28 +0000

TODAY: The league officially announced that the 2023 game will be in Seattle.

SEPTEMBER 14: Major League Baseball is finalizing plans to host 2023 All-Star festivities at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. MLB has yet to make an official announcement on the news.

Seattle has twice before hosted the All-Star Game — at the Kingdome in 1979 and at T-Mobile Park (then called Safeco Field) in 2001. The National League won the 1979 contest by a score of 7-6, while the American League took the 2001 game by a 4-1 margin.

Next year’s event will be hosted in Los Angeles. The Dodgers were initially announced as hosts for the 2020 festivities, but those were canceled during last year’s shortened season and will instead be made up in 2022. As Passan notes, the only other future All-Star host site known at this time is Philadelphia, which will get the event in 2026 as part of the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

Ray Caldwell’s Electric No-Hitter

Mat Kovach — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 20:00:54 +0000

When getting hit by lightning not the top of your season highlights.

The post Ray Caldwell’s Electric No-Hitter appeared first on Pitcher List.

Injury Notes: Winker, Brantley, Archer, Brogdon

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 19:44:14 +0000

Reds All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday. He’s played there each of the past two nights and will start for the Bats again this evening but could return to the big league club as soon as tomorrow, manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic). Cincinnati begins a difficult three-game set with the Dodgers this weekend.

Winker has been one of the game’s best hitters this season, following up on a fantastic shortened 2020 campaign with the best numbers of his career. Across 481 plate appearances, Winker owns a .307/.395/.560 line with 24 home runs. Even after accounting for Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home ballpark, that offensive output checks in 52 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+, a mark that trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Juan Soto among players with more than 400 trips to the plate. Reinstalling that kind of impact bat into the order would be huge for a Reds’ team that enters play today one and a half games back of the division-rival Cardinals for the National League’s final playoff spot (with the Padres also half a game up on them in the standings).

Some other injury situations for contending clubs around the league:

The Astros placed Michael Brantley on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, last night because of right knee soreness. The club didn’t provide any sort of timetable for his return, but there’s no indication it’s anything more than a precautionary absence. Houston holds a commanding seven game lead in the AL West thanks to recent scuffles by the A’s and Mariners, so there’s no reason to push one of their top performers before the start of the postseason. The ever-consistent Brantley is having another very good year, hitting .315/.367/.441 in 493 plate appearances.
Rays right-hander Chris Archer may not make it back to the field in 2021, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The 32-year-old, who returned to Tampa Bay on a one-year deal worth $6.5MM this offseason, has been slowed by hip troubles in recent weeks and is seeking outside opinions on the matter before determining a course of treatment. Once the Rays’ top starter, Archer came back to Tropicana Field in hopes of revitalizing his career following a 2020 thoracic outlet surgery. He’s been limited to just 19 2/3 innings, however, due to a forearm injury early in the season and the recent hip troubles that have surfaced.
The Phillies placed reliever Connor Brogdon on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain yesterday. He “probably” won’t return this season, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Brogdon has been one of the more reliable arms in a shaky Philly bullpen, tossing 55 frames of 3.60 ERA ball. The right-hander hasn’t missed bats at the huge level he flashed in a small sample last season, but he’s thrown strikes and induced grounders at a slightly above-average rate. Brogdon has worked mostly in medium-leverage situations this season, but his loss further thins a relief corps that leads baseball with 32 blown saves. Those bullpen woes are perhaps the biggest reason the Phils enter play today three and a half games behind the Braves in the NL East and three games back in the Wild Card hunt.

Orioles Claim Brooks Kriske From Yankees

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 18:27:25 +0000

The Orioles announced they’ve claimed reliever Brooks Kriske off waivers from the Yankees. Righty Jorge López was transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list to open space on the 40-man roster.

More to come.

Néstor Cortes Jr. Is Old School – Pitcher Video Breakdown

Nick Pollack — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 18:20:07 +0000

Nick analyzes Néstor Cortes Jr. for his daily Pitcher Video Breakdown

The post Néstor Cortes Jr. Is Old School – Pitcher Video Breakdown appeared first on Pitcher List.

SAGNOF: No Rest For the Wick-ed

Paul Mammino — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 18:00:32 +0000

The last several weeks have actually shown us some rare late season clarity with respect to bullpens. Due to a combination of injuries and some pitchers taking control we have a bunch of newly minted full-time closers. In fact, some of the saves leaders in the last 14 days have come from teams well out of contention. This shows the importance of remaining active on the wire to find closer gems. Don’t let up as one save could be the difference between fantasy glory and a losing season.

Angels Designate Jake Petricka For Assignment

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 17:43:54 +0000

The Angels announced they’ve designated reliever Jake Petricka for assignment. The move creates active roster space for Alex Cobb, who has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list to start this afternoon’s game against the White Sox. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register notes, the move opens a spot on the 40-man roster for reliever José Marte, who is expected to be activated from the COVID-19 injured list tomorrow.

Los Angeles selected Petricka in late August, setting the right-hander up for his first MLB action in two years. Petricka earned that promotion by tossing 31 2/3 frames of 3.69 ERA ball with quality peripherals in Triple-A. He’s been bombed in his seven big league appearances, though, allowing ten runs on six hits and seven walks in six innings. The Angels will place Petricka on waivers in the coming days, and the veteran would have the right to elect free agency if he passes through unclaimed.

Cobb has missed nearly six weeks with wrist inflammation. That was his second IL stint of the year, as the 33-year-old also missed a little more than the minimum ten days in May because of a blister. Acquired from the Orioles over the winter, Cobb has been limited to fifteen starts and 77 2/3 innings.

To his credit, Cobb has been effective when healthy enough to take the ball. After struggling through a few below-average seasons in Baltimore, he’s turned things around to post a 3.82 ERA with Los Angeles. Cobb has significantly improved his strikeout and swinging strike rates in the process, vaulting from one of the league’s lowest whiff rates to above-average marks.

Cobb hasn’t seen a huge change in his raw stuff, with his pitch velocities and movements right in line with prior seasons. Instead, he’s been more adept this season at locating pitches just off the edges and avoiding the heart of the strike zone. He’s also been more willing than he was last year to lean on his splitter after falling behind batters, preventing opponents from zeroing in and teeing off on his sinker in hitters’ counts.

The Angels have long since fallen out of contention, but the next few starts will be meaningful for Cobb personally. He’s in the final season of the four-year deal he signed with the O’s over the 2017-18 offseason and will hit free agency this winter. Coming off a six-week absence due to an arm injury, demonstrating that he’s back at his early-season form could be crucial in setting his market value for potential suitors.

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 978 – Hold or Fold with High-End Players

Paul Sporer — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 17:00:46 +0000

9/13/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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Approximately 35 minutes of joyous analysis.

Getting Ahead in Head to Head, Week 3: Tsut Tsut Tsutsugo

NateMarcum — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 17:00:31 +0000

The Fantasy Baseball Head to Head season is coming to an end. We can all hope that it goes the way of some other amazing finishes, like MASH, Breaking Bad, and Parks and Rec. I feel it is my sole responsibility to deliver the goods this week so that your Head to Head finish isn't reminiscent of the final episode of Game of Thrones or Quantum Leap. So Sam Beckett could have always lept back home, and he ultimately never did? Huh? That is the equivalent of Vlad Jr being forced to jump into the body of Matt Carpenter to get his batting average over the Mendoza mark, and never choose to return to his glorious MVP self. Oh well. Contrary to other weeks, depending on your league format and assuming it isn't a keeper-based league, you can now just drop any player that can't help you, or won't hurt you by your opponent adding them. If you have a starter pitching on Wednesday or later, you can drop him after their start and move on to the next guy. This weeks' schedule is filled with tricks and treats that should help you gain an edge over your competitor if you can strike while the iron is hot. And I am not using that reference as an homage to that garbage fest of a finale in Game of Thrones. Don't get me wrong, the show had to end, but it was as if the MLB condensed the entire playoffs into a game of Strat-O-Matic. So what can we look for in this final week? 9-Game Week: Cleveland (2-Double Headers) 8-Game Week: St. Louis & Chicago White Sox 5-Game Week: New York Mets & Boston Interleague Matchups MIA @ TB. (MIA gains DH) BAL @ PHI (BAL loses DH) - Monitor Anthony Santander NYM @ BOS (NYM gains DH) MINN @ CHC (MINN loses DH) - Monitor Josh Donaldson

Brett the Hit Man

Josh Kurzer — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 16:41:41 +0000

Josh Kurzer breaks down last night's best hitting performances

The post Brett the Hit Man appeared first on Pitcher List.

FanDuel: Get Schwindy

Butters — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 16:30:43 +0000

We're coming up on the end but as teams fight for playoff position there is still plenty of opportunities to win some of that sweet DFS cash. He may not be on a playoff team but Frank Schwindel (C/1B: $3,500) just keeps hitting and is putting up a near top-shelf performance for not a top-shelf price. His salary has started to creep up, but he's still below the top tier price-wise. So get schwifty and enjoy his top-tier numbers. New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

Bets of the Day – September 16th

Kyle Stanzel — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 14:55:08 +0000

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

The post Bets of the Day – September 16th appeared first on Pitcher List.

SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 9/16 & 9/17

Nick Pollack — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 14:47:37 +0000

Nick Pollack ranks the starting pitcher streamers for today & tomorrow.

The post SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 9/16 & 9/17 appeared first on Pitcher List.

Latest On Mets’ Front Office

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 14:40:08 +0000

For months, there’s been an expectation of an impending shakeup in the Mets’ front office. Last offseason’s GM hire Jared Porter was fired five weeks into his tenure after his past sexual harassment of a reporter was brought to light. Assistant GM Zack Scott was bumped up to acting general manager in Porter’s place, but Scott’s future with the organization is in question too after he was arrested and charged with DWI a few weeks back. Scott was placed on administrative leave, and team president Sandy Alderson — originally brought in to handle a broader, more supervisory role — had to assume control over day-to-day baseball operations.

Much about the forthcoming hiring process remains undetermined, but Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports that the team intends to bring in a president of baseball operations this winter. Alderson will remain with the organization and move back into the broader team president role for which he initially signed up, tweets Tim Healey of Newsday. That’s not especially surprising, since Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported last week that Alderson was under contract through the end of next year but had no intention of running baseball operations on a daily basis.

There have been some calls for owner Steve Cohen to move on from Alderson due to questions about his vetting of previous hires. In addition to Porter and Scott, Alderson hired Mickey Callaway as manager during his previous stint as Mets’ GM. Multiple women have since accused Callaway of sexual misconduct — some of which ostensibly occurred during his time in New York. An MLB investigation determined he acted inappropriately, and Callaway was placed on the league’s ineligible list through 2022.

Despite that history, the Mets are set to give Alderson another opportunity to shape the front office. Cohen and Alderson will jointly run the hiring process for the incoming president of baseball ops, according to Joel Sherman and Greg Joyce of the New York Post. That prospective hire would then be empowered to hire their own lieutenants to assist in daily operations.

Theo Epstein has already been speculated upon as a potential candidate, and Sherman and Joyce report that Cohen would be “open to considering” the former Cubs’ president. Epstein, though, is said to want a minority ownership share in an organization if he’s to return to baseball operations. It’s unclear if the Mets would entertain that kind of scenario.

In addition to the front office revamp, there are questions about Luis Rojas’ future as manager. The 40-year-old signed a two-year contract during his hiring over the 2019-20 offseason; barring any sort of unannounced extension, he’s in the final few weeks of the guaranteed portion of that deal, although the contract does reportedly contain multiple club options. Three games under .500, the Mets look likely to miss the playoffs for the second year of Rojas’ tenure despite entering the season with reasonably high expectations.

It’s impossible to pin the blame for that entirely on Rojas. The team dealt with a series of key injuries early in the season and some of the roster’s most notable players have underperformed. But the on-field results simply haven’t been good enough to silence speculation about Rojas’ long-term future, particularly since he was first hired by the previous Wilson family ownership group and former GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Mike Puma of the New York Post reported last night that Alderson has expressed a desire to retain Rojas as manager next season. Puma adds, however, that Cohen and the incoming president of baseball ops are expected to have significant input in that decision. According to Puma, Cohen — at the time a minority owner — “really liked” the Mets’ decision to hire Carlos Beltrán as skipper in November 2019. Beltrán was fired just a few months later after his role in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal came to light (leading to Rojas subsequently getting the position), and he hasn’t been seriously mentioned as a potential managerial candidate in the nearly two years since.

That’s not to say the Mets are seriously considering replacing Rojas with Beltrán. For one, Cohen himself rather bizarrely pushed back on Puma’s reporting this morning (on Twitter). And Puma’s report didn’t suggest the Mets were actively considering Beltrán at this point. Cohen obviously wouldn’t have been the only member of the organization enamored with Beltrán’s qualifications at the time he was hired. The intervening revelations of his role in the sign-stealing scandal could have changed that opinion. Of course, then-Astros manager A.J. Hinch and bench coach Alex Cora — both of whom were suspended and fired from their respective positions elsewhere for their roles in the scandal — quickly landed managerial jobs once their suspensions concluded at the end of last season, so it’s not as if the industry at large has proven unforgiving.

There’s a lot about the Mets’ direction yet to be determined. The team will presumably look into executives currently in high positions with other teams. Three top personnel — Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto, Tampa Bay’s Erik Neander and Kansas City’s Dayton Moore — were recently promoted to president of baseball operations by their current clubs, presumably at least in part to guard against potential poaching this offseason by teams seeking a president of baseball ops themselves. It wouldn’t be surprising to see more instances of that kind of gamesmanship before the offseason hiring processes really kick off.

Bullpen Depth Charts: Relievers To Stream – 9/16

Alexander Chase — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 14:37:51 +0000

Which relievers might be in line to vulture a save or win today?

The post Bullpen Depth Charts: Relievers To Stream – 9/16 appeared first on Pitcher List.

DFS Plays of the Day – September 16

Ryan Amore — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 13:30:30 +0000

Ryan Amore previews Thursday's DFS slate.

The post DFS Plays of the Day – September 16 appeared first on Pitcher List.

The 10 Nastiest Pitches From Wednesday

Ben Brown — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 13:15:07 +0000

We're finally over the hump and the weekend is almost here!

The post The 10 Nastiest Pitches From Wednesday appeared first on Pitcher List.

Chris Taylor And The Ben Zobrist Contract

Darragh McDonald — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 12:41:21 +0000

Much ink has already been spilled, or pixels illuminated, about the upcoming offseason and the superclass of shortstops. Even though the Mets extended Francisco Lindor and took one of the most intriguing names out of the pool, it’s still going to feature such marquee names as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien. But there’s one name that’s also on the list that is sometimes overlooked. If you’ve read the headline to this piece, then you already know I’m talking about Chris Taylor.

Perhaps the reason Taylor doesn’t quite fit in with the rest of that group is that he’s not exactly an everyday shortstop like the rest of them. (Semien has been playing mostly second base this year, but only because of the presence of Bo Bichette next to him. He could very easily return to shortstop duty with a new club next season.) Taylor is more of a utility guy who is capable of playing some shortstop, if needed. He’s appeared at the position in each of the past eight seasons, but never more than 81 games. Also, he reached that number back in 2018. In 2019, that number dropped to 39. In the shortened 2020 season, it was 20 games, exactly one third of the 60-game reduced schedule. This year, it’s only been 22 games so far. The fact that he’s not considered an everyday option is at least somewhat borne out by statistics. To give one example, of the 46 players to log at least 1000 innings at shortstop over the past five years, Taylor’s UZR/150 of -7.5 ranks 43rd, in the vicinity of guys who don’t play at short much anymore, such as Aledmys Diaz and Manny Machado.

Still, even though he’s not an everyday option, he has versatility, which is something teams love. Taylor has also played second base, third base and all three outfield positions this year, meaning that he could conceivably be plugged into the lineup of any team in the league and move around to their area of greatest need. That could potentially give him tremendous leverage in free agency this winter, just as it did for Ben Zobrist six years ago. Zobrist was able to use that vast market to net himself a four-year, $56MM contract with the Cubs in December of 2015. Could Chris Taylor get something like that? Well, let’s compare.

For starters, Taylor will have a distinct advantage over Zobrist in one category: age. Zobrist was set to turn 35 in May of 2016, shortly after making his Cubs debut. Taylor just turned 31 two weeks ago. Taylor will be 3 1/2 years younger while on the market this winter than Zobrist was back in 2015, meaning a team could potentially be willing to put an even longer contract in front of Taylor.

Secondly, in terms of defense, although Zobrist had shortstop experience, he didn’t play there in 2015. Then he only logged 15 innings at shortstop over the course of his time with the Cubs. Clearly, the club wasn’t expecting him to provide significant time there. Nor was he an option in center field. His last action there was seven games for the Rays in 2014. Taylor, on the other hand, has played 56 games in center this season and 181 over the past five years. Although much was made of Zobrist’s versatility, he was primarily a second baseman and corner outfielder by the time he signed with the Cubs. Due to Taylor’s ability to play almost everywhere, including premium positions like shortstop and center field, he brings more versatility to the table than Zobrist did at that time.

That’s age and defense, but what about the bat? Since becoming an everyday player in 2017, Taylor has played in 610 games and logged 2,349 plate appearances over those five seasons. His line in that time is .266/.344/.464, which amounts to a wRC+ of 118. In the five years leading up to Zobrist’s contract, he played 742 games and logged 3,229 plate appearances, with a line of .272/.359/.437, wRC+ of 124. Zobrist has the higher batting average but Taylor has more power and ends up with fairly similar production overall.

That’s being a bit unfair to Zobrist because it leaves out his monster 2009 season wherein he hit .297/.405/.543 for a wRC+ of 152 and produced 8.7 fWAR. However, that was a distant memory by the time the Cubs signed Zobrist heading into the 2016 season. You don’t sign a player who’s about to turn 35 based on what he did when he was 28. However, by the same token, one could argue that we shouldn’t be including Taylor’s excellent 2017 season because he was 26 then but is 31 now. If we shrink the sample down to the three years before free agency, Zobrist’s line is .274/.356/413, wRC+ of 117, whereas Taylor’s line is .262/.345/.459, wRC+ of 117.

Okay, so, Taylor is like a younger and more versatile version of 2015-2016 Zobrist, and very similar with the bat. One major unknown at the moment, though, is what kind of momentum he will bring into the offseason. One thing I’ve failed to mention thus far is that Zobrist entered free agency on the heels of an excellent playoff performance, having just helped the Royals win the 2015 World Series. In that postseason, Zobrist played in 16 games, garnering 75 plate appearances, producing a line of .303/.365/.515, wRC+ of 133.

Taylor is in the opposite position right now, slumping terribly over the past month. Since August 13th, he’s hitting .136/.217/.272, wRC+ of 34. It seems this slide could at least be somewhat chalked up to a neck injury that has kept Taylor out of action for almost a week now. But the Dodgers haven’t placed him on the injured list, which suggests they don’t think it’s terribly serious. Teams are surely able to overlook a small, injury-caused slump amidst a solid five-year run of success. Though it would certainly help Taylor’s earning power if he could prove that’s all it is by getting back to being healthy and productive. The window for him to do that is getting narrow, however, since there’s just over two weeks remaining in the regular season. The Dodgers have already clinched a playoff berth of some kind, but they’re 1 1/2 games behind the Giants in the race for the NL West crown, meaning they’re guaranteed only one postseason game.

Another wrinkle is the qualifying offer. Zobrist was traded mid-season in 2015, making him ineligible for it. Taylor, on the other hand, will most likely receive one, assuming his long-term health outlook is okay. That means that any team signing him would have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick, or third-highest, if they are a revenue-sharing recipient. That would certainly dampen his market somewhat.

Taking all of that into account, where does that leave us? Zobrist got four years, $56MM, which is an average annual value of $14MM. Taylor will be more versatile and almost as good at the plate. Bake in a few years of inflation and Taylor could aim for a few extra million per year. Because of his age, and assuming no lingering questions about his health, maybe he gets five years instead of four. So, does some team go to five years, $80MM? That certainly feels high, especially given that DJ LeMahieu just got $90MM from the Yankees before this season. (LeMahieu is also older and less versatile than Taylor but was coming off a tremendous two-year stretch at the plate.)

Perhaps the qualifying offer knocks that down some and Taylor actually can’t quite get to Zobrist levels. Maybe this is a bit too optimistic in Taylor’s favor. Still, despite his recent slump, Taylor’s wRC+ is currently sitting at 118 for the season. Baez is at 121. Trevor Story is at 99. Taylor might not be as much of a household name as those two, but his earning power might be closer to them than you think.

Playing For Next Year — More Bench Bats to Consider

Mike Podhorzer — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 12:15:38 +0000

Yesterday, I discussed five bench bats to consider adding in your keeper league if you’re playing for next year. Why not fill your entire roster with cheap flyers who could make for great keepers next year if they win a starting job? Let’s continue those names with another four.

Mickey Moniak | PHI OF

Heading into the season, Moniak was ranked as the team’s 19th best prospect. His scouting grades suggest no standout skill, but perhaps a respectable batting average and some stolen bases. His minor league track record almost matches those grades. Through 2019, his HR/FB rate never reached double digits. He was still knocking extra-base hits that resulted in a decent .187 ISO though, so one could hope some of those doubles and triples eventually become home runs.

That’s exactly what happened this year, as his HR/FB rate jumped to 12.6% at Triple-A, while his ISO barely increased. That’s still not an exciting level of power, but at least it gets him closer to league average. His FB% has increased every season so perhaps he’s attempting to tap more into his power. Unfortunately, the solid Hit grade he received hasn’t actually translated into a good batting average and more fly balls isn’t going to turn that around.

Moniak has stolen as many as 15 bases in the minors, but he attempted a steal a bit less frequently at Triple-A this season. His Sprint Speed is slightly higher than the league average, so it’ll entirely depend on his willingness to steal at the MLB level. I don’t see a whole lot to be excited by here, so he’s a consideration strictly if you’re collecting potential keepers, but he should remain near the bottom of your list of candidates.

Jose Barrero | CIN SS

Sooo, Barrera was ranked as the Reds best prospect and 27th overall, meaning he’s very likely already rostered in your keeper league, depending on its depth. Just goes to show you how much I keep up with prospects since I never heard of him. Being in an AL-Only keeper league also means my knowledge of NL prospects is even more limited! Barrero was recalled on Sep 10 and has made two starts since, so he’s clearly not going to impact fantasy leagues this year.

By his scouting grades, the 23-year-old has both power and speed, which is the combination we salivate over. Just as important is his 60 Field grade means he’ll have a longer leash if he hits a slump as he’ll still be contributing defensively. He also won’t need to switch positions, keeping him at a premium middle infield spot.

Through 2020, the power we were promised never appeared. His HR/FB rate peaked at just 6.7% with a .156 ISO. But then 2021 came around and he was a whole new hitter — his HR/FB rate rocketed to 15% at Double-A and then even higher to 21.7% at Triple-A, with .181 and .288 ISO marks at each of those levels as well. For a young prospect who was supposed to possess such power, I take this breakout seriously. Even more impressive is that he was able to increase his walk rate and essentially maintain his strikeout rate along with that power spike.

Barrero also swiped 16 bases in the minors this year and stole low-to-mid teen totals in 2018 and 2019 as well. That makes him a potential all-around contributor and a great target when searching for keepers.

Colton Welker | COL 1B/3B

Any time a Rockies prospect is recalled, I take notice. Welker, the team’s eighth ranked prospect, isn’t playing enough to warrant a roster spot in shallower leagues, so if you’re in a shallow keeper league, he might be available for the taking.

Welker’s scouting grades don’t suggest a ton of power or any speed, but that power could be optimized by his new home park. Similarly, that 55 Hit grade looks even better with Coors Field at his back.

Welker hasn’t shown a whole lot of power in the minors. His HR/FB rate has remained in the high-single digit to low-double digit range, while his ISO marks have ranged from .150 to .190. Normally, I wouldn’t pay much attention to a prospect with no speed and mediocre power, but I will if he’s on the Rockies.

Welker does make pretty good contact, keeping his SwStk% below 10% during every minor league stint except in 2018 at High-A. That’s an important skill given how productive a ball in play is at Coors Field. Perhaps the upside here is some Justin Turner-like years.

Kyle Isbel | KC OF

It was a surprise when Isbel won the starting right field job in Kansas City to open the season. But after five hits in his first two games, he recorded just four more before ultimately being demoted back to the minors toward the end of April. He’s back now, but the Royals have a multitude of alternatives, so his playing time is no guarantee.

He entered the season as the team’s fourth ranked prospect with scouting grades not exceeding 50 anywhere except his Field grade. His minor league track record is decent enough and one that looks a little more exciting from a fantasy perspective than a real baseball one, although the latter will depend on how his defense actually rates.

He has shown averageish power with a below average fly ball rate, but he has kept his SwStk% below 10% during his last two minor league stops, while his strikeout rate has hovered just over 20%. So he’ll put the ball in play, which could boost his home run total.

The more interesting part of his profile is his speed. He stole 22 bases at Triple-A this year and 24 back in 2018. Perhaps combined with his power, it adds up to a potential 15 homer and 20 steal guy. That’s valuable and doesn’t come with a whole lot of hype.

Nestor’s 11 Ks Don’t Burn Quite As Much As He Brought The Cortes Zone

Grey — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 07:00:20 +0000

We hear, "Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels..." as the Think Different commercial plays. The middle of a black onyx stage opens, and slowly someone rises. First, we see their Yankees cap, then the glorious sheen, black-as-night mustache, which blinds us, it's so beautiful. Finally, we see it's Nestor Cortes Jr. in a black turtleneck and dad jeans. Nestor clicks on the microphone that is around his ear. "Thank you, Ashton Kutcher, for that lovely intro. Now, as many of you are wondering, how am I on the Yankees, and their no facial policy, with this gorgeous mustache. That answer is quite simple, actually. It's due to my incredibly fast-growing facial hair. I shave every morning. I want to direct you now to my 500-slide Powerpoint explaining how my mustache grows in so fast." Not only does Nestor Cortes Jr. have a fast-growing mustache like he's out of the 1970s, he also has a 1970s vibe to his pitching. His release point changes with just about every pitch. Is his father, Nestor Orlando El Duque Hernandez Cortes Sr.? Last night, Cortes went 6 1/3, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 11 Ks, ERA at 2.60 in just under 80 IP, which is nothing to sneeze out, unless you're allergic to quality fantasy starters. The worry with Cortes, much like it was with El Duque, he throws about 89 MPH. It's a precarious game trying to keep MLB hitters off balance all the time. So far, Cortes has done it, and I'd try him for the rest of this year. For 2022 fantasy, Nestor Cortes Jr. feels like a guy who could be exposed as a gimmick. Now, excuse me, I want to get back to watching his mustache PowerPoint. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Spice

Nick Pollack — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 05:23:44 +0000

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Wednesday.

The post Josh Spice appeared first on Pitcher List.

Padres Sign Vince Velasquez, Place Blake Snell On Injured List

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 03:59:31 +0000

The Padres announced they’ve signed Vince Velasquez to a minor league contract. He’ll be selected to the big league roster to start a game against the Cardinals this weekend, per the team. They’ll need to make active and 40-man roster moves before his start. In related news, San Diego placed lefty Blake Snell on the 10-day injured list due to a left adductor groin strain.

Velasquez becomes the second recently-released pitcher added by San Diego in as many days. The Friars signed reliever Ross Detwiler to a major league deal yesterday, just a few days after he was cut loose by the Marlins. Those moves come a month after San Diego picked up Jake Arrieta once he was released by the Cubs. It has been an “all hands on deck” approach to a pitching staff that has been beaten up badly by injuries throughout the year.

It hasn’t been an especially productive season for Velasquez, who has only managed 81 2/3 innings over 21 appearances (including 17 starts). He’s pitched to a career-worst 5.95 ERA in that time despite a 23.5% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike percentage that each check in right around the league average.

That’s mostly a reflection of Velasquez’s walk and home run troubles, issues that plagued him throughout his six years in Philadelphia. He’s doled out free passes to a lofty 12.5% of opponents, the highest single-season mark of his career. And Velasquez’s always low ground-ball rate has dipped to 33.3% this year, nearly ten percentage points below the league average. That’s contributed to his serving up seventeen homers (1.87 HR/9), although the San Diego front office is surely hopeful a move to a less homer-friendly ballpark could alleviate that somewhat.

Velasquez’s recent struggles led to his release from Philadelphia yesterday. At this stage of the season, competent big league starting pitching is almost impossible to acquire, so the Friars moved quickly to add the 29-year-old once he passed through waivers. Velasquez had been on the injured list due to blister troubles at the time of his release, but he’d already made a pair of minor league rehab appearances. The team’s announcement that he’ll start this weekend suggests he’s healthy and ready to step back into MLB action.

Logging some innings will be critical for a San Diego team that has lost a pair of starters to the IL in recent days. Chris Paddack landed on the shelf earlier this week, and Snell joins him after leaving his start on Sunday night after just eleven pitches. The Friars were down to Arrieta, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove in the rotation, so Velasquez steps in to add some length and hopefully make a few productive starts down the stretch. The Phillies will be on the hook for the balance of his $4MM salary, with the Padres’ paying him just the prorated portion of the league minimum.

As with yesterday’s Detwiler signing, picking up Velasquez is solely about improving the Padres’ odds of grabbing a Wild Card spot this year. Both players joined the organization after August 31 and would be ineligible for postseason play. They each have enough service time to qualify for free agency again this winter. So they’re both being brought in for the next three weeks only, with San Diego trying to outplay the Cardinals, Reds, Phillies and Mets for the National League’s final postseason spot. St. Louis is in pole position, holding a half-game advantage over Cincinnati and a one-game lead on the Padres.

Luis Rengifo Reportedly Facing Charges In Venezuela For Allegedly Falsifying Documents

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 03:20:44 +0000

An arrest warrant was recently issued against Angels infielder Luis Rengifo in his home country of Venezuela, according to reports from local news outlets (h/t to Sam Blum of the Athletic). Authorities allege that Rengifo and certain members of his family falsified divorce papers in order to sell property that jointly belonged to Rengifo and his estranged wife to Rengifo’s sister without his wife’s consent in 2019. Rengifo’s father, sister and an attorney allegedly involved in the process — all of whom remain in Venezuela — have already been arrested, according to reports.

It is presently unknown if/how the allegations will affect Rengifo’s playing status. Blum notes that local reports were also unclear whether the Venezuelan government plans to submit a request to have Rengifo extradited to face charges.

The Angels have declined comment. Rengifo released a statement through a spokesperson, stating “I am aware of the allegations in Venezuela and have hired a new attorney to defend me and my family. Due to the pending legal proceedings and investigation phase in Venezuela, I am not permitted to comment any further on this matter” (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Rengifo remains on the active roster and got the start at shortstop tonight against the White Sox.

Diamondbacks Activate Merrill Kelly

Anthony Franco — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 01:23:43 +0000

The Diamondbacks have reinstated Merrill Kelly from the COVID-19 injured list. He’ll get the start this evening against the Dodgers, his first action in a month after he tested positive for the coronavirus. Tyler Gilbert was placed on the 10-day injured list with elbow fatigue in a corresponding move.

Kelly has been one of the D-Backs’ most reliable starters this year. While his promising 2020 campaign was cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome, the 32-year-old has bounced back and remained durable until his positive COVID diagnosis. Kelly has tossed 142 1/3 frames over 24 starts, working to a 4.30 ERA. He’s not missed many bats, but Kelly’s a great strike-thrower and has induced grounders at a roughly league average rate en route to solid production.

The final few weeks will offer Kelly an opportunity to make a handful of starts and hopefully demonstrate he’s returned to prior form after a month away. His contract contains an eminently affordable $5.25MM club option, which looks like a lock to be exercised. At that point, Kelly would become one of the offseason’s more notable trade candidates, with the Diamondbacks unlikely to compete next season. Plenty of more immediate contenders could use the affordable, mid-rotation stability Kelly brings and seem likely to be in contact with the Arizona front office over the winter.

To open space on the 40-man roster, the D-Backs recalled minor league reliever Kevin Ginkel and placed him on the major league 60-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation. The move officially ends his season, but Ginkel will pick up MLB service time and pay for the final few weeks. The 27-year-old has been up-and-down over the past three years, combining for a 4.72 ERA over 68 2/3 big league frames.

Starting Pitcher Chart – September 16th, 2021

Paul Sporer — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 00:22:29 +0000

September 16th Starter Chart

PITCHER	TM	OPP	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Kevin Gausman	SFG	SDP	x	x	x	3.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25% K-BB	.266 – 29th	Dominant v. SDP in 3 GS this yr (1.42 ERA, .90 WHIP)
Tyler Mahle	CIN	at PIT	x	x	x	4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.318 – 14th	He’s been a set it & forget it guy all year
Framber Valdez	HOU	at TEX	x	x	x	3.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.289 – 25th	2 poor Sept. starts won’t deter me here
Ian Anderson	ATL	COL	x	x	x	4.71 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 1% K-BB	.324 – 11th*	Little bumpy since return, but an easy start here
Jordan Montgomery	NYY	at BAL	x	x	x	3.80 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.320 – 13th	Solid SP v. BAL is an easy start down the stretch
Reynaldo López	CWS	LAA		x	x	2.63 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.285 – 27th	Hit 90 pitches last start so IP concern is lessened
Germán Márquez	COL	at ATL		x	x	4.78 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.321 – 12th	Worse ratios on road, but still a usable streamer
Daniel Lynch	KCR	OAK			x	4.62 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.302 – 19th	Mostly solid since recall, but BB running high
Dietrich Enns	TBR	DET			x	3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.294 – 23rd	1st start after several extended RP appearances
Tyler Alexander	DET	at TBR			x	2.79 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.383 – 2nd	Matchup & low IP/start make him a tough start
Chris Ellis	BAL	NYY			x	2.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.318 – 14th	Skills says be careful buying that sharp ERA
Glenn Otto	TEX	HOU			x	6.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25% K-BB	.328 – 8th	5 IP/0 ER v. HOU in MLB debut, but still a risky play
Paul Blackburn	OAK	at KCR				5.24 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.312 – 19th	No major upside even w/a decent matchup
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	at PHI				6.43 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.326 – 9th	Poor season fueled by HR surge & drop in already small K%

*road vR for COL

Padres Sign Vince Velasquez

Anthony Franco — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 23:47:31 +0000

The Padres announced they’ve signed Vince Velasquez to a minor league contract. He’ll be selected to the big league roster to start a game against the Cardinals this weekend, per the team.

More to come.

Royals Select Gabe Speier

Anthony Franco — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 23:41:18 +0000

The Royals announced they’ve selected reliever Gabe Speier to the big league roster. Wade Davis has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, due to right shoulder inflammation. To clear space for Speier on the 40-man roster, Kansas City transferred lefty Richard Lovelady from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

Speier is up for the first time this season. The southpaw logged some big league time in 2019-20, combining to throw thirteen innings of eleven-run ball before being outrighted off the 40-man roster last offseason. Speier has spent all of this year with Triple-A Omaha and been dominant. Across 45 1/3 innings, the 26-year-old has posted a 2.98 ERA in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a strong 29.8% of batters faced while only walking 4.7% of opponents. Speier still has a couple minor league option years remaining, so he could be a long-term depth option for the Kansas City bullpen if he manages to stick on the 40-man roster.

Davis returned to Kansas City on a minor league deal last winter. He was arguably the best reliever in baseball for a stretch of his first stint in Royal blue, but he’d struggled mightily over the past couple seasons in Colorado and hasn’t righted the ship in return to K.C. Over 42 2/3 frames, Davis has managed just a 6.75 ERA with below-average strikeout and ground-ball rates. He’ll be a free agent again at the end of the season.

Lovelady’s season is officially over, although that’s not much of a surprise. The southpaw landed on the IL with a UCL sprain in late August and always seemed unlikely to return this year. He posted a 3.48 ERA over 20 2/3 innings this season, the largest workload he’s shouldered over his three years at the game’s highest level.

Maddon: Mike Trout, Jo Adell Unlikely To Return This Season

Anthony Franco — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 22:56:54 +0000

Mike Trout hasn’t played since May 18 on account of a right calf strain, as his recovery has been frustratingly slow. With just over three weeks remaining in the regular season — and with the team set to miss the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year — it looks increasingly unlikely we’ll see Trout again in 2021.

Manager Joe Maddon acknowledged that Trout likely won’t make it back, telling reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and Jack Harris of the L.A. Times) he’d be “very surprised” if the three-time MVP returned this year. However, the Anaheim skipper added that the team hasn’t made any official decision about shutting Trout down as of yet, as the 30-year-old continues to work out with the team in hopes of getting back onto the field.

There’s little reason for the Angels to push Trout unless he’s fully healthy. The team has had another lost season despite his best efforts and an MVP-caliber year from Shohei Ohtani. Over 146 plate appearances, Trout was hitting .333/.466/.624 with eight home runs. That’s not only the best offensive production of any player in the league with 100+ trips to the dish, it was on pace to be the best season of Trout’s illustrious career. His 191 wRC+ suggests he was ninety-one percentage points better than the league average hitter on a rate basis. Had he carried that over a full season, that’d have narrowly edged out his 2018 output (.312/.460/.628) for his best ever offensive work.

When healthy, Trout is arguably still the game’s best overall player. The Angels plan to make another run at contending in 2022, and having him at full strength next Opening Day will be the top priority. The nine-time All-Star would love to make it back for at least a couple games in order to kick off a normal offseason, but the team surely won’t take any chances with an injury that has already proven extremely troublesome.

Jo Adell will likely be penciled in alongside Trout in next year’s season-opening outfield. The Angels placed the former top prospect on the 10-day injured list due to a left abdominal strain, though, and Maddon suggested he’s probably not going to return this year (via Fletcher). The 22-year-old mashed at a .289/.342/.592 clip in Triple-A this season, although his big league output (.246/.295/.408 over 140 plate appearances) has been a bit below average.

Adell hasn’t yet produced much in the majors, but he’s taken steps to put his disastrous rookie season behind him. Adell made his MLB debut last year but hit only .161/.212/.266 while striking out in 41.7% of his first 132 plate appearances. His bottom line numbers in 2021 represent a significant improvement, and that’s come with some encouraging process developments. Adell has cut his strikeout rate from that untenable 2020 mark to a 22.9% figure that’s right in line with the league average. He’s improved his contact rate by nearly thirteen percentage points in the process.

There’s still more to iron out, to be certain. Adell continues to be highly aggressive at the dish, chasing pitches outside the strike zone at an alarming rate. That has contributed to a very low 5.7% walk percentage that’ll need to be improved upon if he’s to reach his full potential. But Adell has made demonstrable strides this season, and he’s not much older than many of the top college prospects from this summer’s draft class. (First overall pick Henry Davis, for instance, was born in September 1999, while Adell was born in April of the same year).

Fellow top prospect Brandon Marsh should continue to get everyday reps over this season’s final couple weeks in hopes of locking down a big league job in 2022. Juan Lagares, Taylor Ward and utility men Phil Gosselin, Jose Rojas and Kean Wong are among the other options to see time on the grass through the end of the year.

Astros Designate Robel Garcia For Assignment

Anthony Franco — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 20:54:44 +0000

The Astros are designating infielder Robel García for assignment, relays Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Reliever Rafael Montero was also transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list. The move creates a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster needed to reinstate Taylor Jones and Andre Scrubb from the injured list (Jones from the COVID-19 IL, Scrubb from the 60-day version). Both Jones and Scrubb were optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.

More to come.

Royals Place Mike Minor On Injured List

Steve Adams — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 19:53:42 +0000

The Royals have placed left-hander Mike Minor on the 10-day injured list due to left shoulder impingement syndrome and recalled righty Scott Blewett from Triple-A Omaha, per a club announcement. Righty Carlos Hernandez is moving up in the rotation and starting tonight in Minor’s place. Left-hander Daniel Lynch will get the nod tomorrow.

Given the timing of the injury, it’s at least possible this will mark the end of Minor’s season. Minor’s placement on the IL is retroactive to Monday, so he could be back in about a week’s time, but there’d only be 12 days left in the season, at most, once Minor is eligible to return.

Minor, 33, revitalized his career as a reliever with the Royals back in 2017 — his first stint with the club. He signed a two-year, $18M contract with Kansas City this past offseason in hopes of doing so a second time, but he hasn’t been able to improve much upon last year’s 5.56 ERA.

To his credit, Minor has been a stabilizing presence in the Kansas City rotation and has been quite effective of late. He’s taken the ball 28 times this year and soaked up 158 2/3 frames, keeping the Royals from leaning too heavily on a collection of young arms whose workloads they’d hoped to closely monitor this season. And while Minor was struggling for much of the season’s first four months, he’d given the Royals a solid 3.78 ERA with a 21.2 percent strikeout rate and a brilliant 3.7 percent walk rate in 52 2/3 innings across his past nine outings. That type of output was likely just what the Royals hoped for in signing Minor, but because of his ugly start to the season, that recent streak has only dropped his ERA to 5.05.

Minor has become increasingly homer-prone in recent years, and his strikeout rate is also down from the past two seasons, although he’s counteracted that to an extent with one of his stingiest walk rates. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA all peg Minor in the 4.28 to 4.44 range, suggesting there’s some hope that he can continue to the solid run he put together late in the 2021 season next year — health permitting, of course. The Royals owe Minor $10MM in 2022 , and his contract also contains a $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout.

Prospect News: Everson Pereira Punching Up, Victor Robles Rebounding

The Itch — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 19:15:11 +0000

Washington OF Victor Robles is a priority target for me this off-season because I still think he’ll someday become the .280, 20 HR, 30 SB type he appeared to be before totally forgetting how to hit. The price is definitely Bob right now. I won’t go bidding into the wind of that dreamscape on the trade market if he’s rostered by a devout Robles believer, but chances are, the Robles-heavy investor is more than ready to diversify the portfolio. So why should we buy? Just hope and hype of winters past?

AL West Notes: Calhoun, Yordan, Murphy

Steve Adams — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 18:58:47 +0000

Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun missed nearly three months of the 2021 season after suffering a broken arm upon being hit by a pitch, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this week, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The club has 18 games left to get a look at Calhoun before determining whether to tender him a contract in arbitration this winter, and manager Chris Woodward offered no certainties when discussing Calhoun’s future. “Unfortunately, he hasn’t played enough for us to really evaluate him,” Woodward said (via Grant). “So, we may have to make a really tough decision one way or the other. We’re going to have to kind of go out on a limb.”

Calhoun, 27 this offseason, was the headlining prospect the Rangers received from the Dodgers in 2017’s Yu Darvish trade. He’s yet to establish himself as a consistently productive hitter, however, and was batting a rather pedestrian .254/.323/.385 in 226 plate appearances before heading to the injured list. Calhoun’s lack of playing time and career .248/.304/.418 batting line to date will limit his arbitration price. That, coupled with the fact that he has a minor league option remaining in 2022, could be a saving grace. So long as the Rangers don’t mind carrying him on the 40-man roster, there’s little downside in tendering him a contract, but Woodward’s mention of a “tough decision” appears to indicate that there’s at least some debate on how to proceed.

Some more notes from the division…

Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is getting increased defensive reps in at first base and could begin seeing time there in games, manager Dusty Baker told reporters this week (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Alvarez, 24, played some first base in the minors but hasn’t appeared there in the Majors yet. He’s only played 317 innings of defense since debuting in 2019 — all of which have come in left field. The ’Stros have Yuli Gurriel as their everyday option at first base, and his $8MM club option for the 2022 season is a no-brainer to be exercised after a terrific 2021 season. Still, getting Alvarez some work at first would provide a safety net should Gurriel need to miss time and would also give the Astros an option on days where they hope to rest Gurriel, who’ll turn 38 next June. Looking beyond the ’22 campaign, at which point Gurriel will be a free agent, it’d obviously be a bonus if the ’Stros felt comfortable playing Alvarez at first base on at least a part-time basis. Given the knee troubles he’s already had in his career, Alvarez might not be a full-time option either in left field or at first base for Houston, but the more ways they have to keep him and his outstanding career .293/.375/.584 batting line (906 plate appearances) in the lineup, the better.
Mariners catcher Tom Murphy chatted with Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times about his rebound from an awful start to the year — a stretch he called “the lowest point in my baseball career.” Murphy’s roster spot looked to be in jeopardy at one point, but he’s rebounded since mid-May, hitting .236/.346/.408 with eight homers in his past 208 trips to the plate. His season line still rests at an ugly .205/.304/.373, but that’s weighed down by those first six weeks. Murphy didn’t play in 2020 after fouling a ball into his foot and suffering a fracture during Mariners “Summer Camp,” so the slow start after such a long layoff is somewhat understandable. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for a second time this winter, giving the Mariners three potential options behind the dish alongside Luis Torrens and prospect Cal Raleigh. Had Murphy’s struggles continued, he’d have been a clear non-tender candidate. That possibility can’t be expressly ruled out even with the rebound, but the forthcoming raise on his modest $875K salary figures to be relatively minimal. Murphy hit .273/.324/.535 in 281 plate appearances with the Mariners back in 2019.

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 15th, 2021

Paul Sporer — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 17:56:37 +0000

Weekly chat time!

Best Bets of the Day – 9/15

James Schiano — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 17:00:49 +0000

What rhymes with 'shmover'?

The post Best Bets of the Day – 9/15 appeared first on Pitcher List.

Bear or Bull: Stay in your Lane?

Son — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 17:00:16 +0000

I always had issues with the expression, "Stay in your lane." What if someone is driving in the fast lane and going super slow? Should they stay in their lane? NO! As bizarro Beyonce would sing, "To the right, to the right." That said, the expression has tons of merit. If driving slow, stay in the right lanes and let others pass on the left. If you see three of four lanes littered with trucks, staying in the one without them would be most prudent. Which brings me to Lane Thomas of the Washington Nationals. He's been added in 11.4% of ESPN leagues over the past week and, since joining the Nationals, has a .293/.383/.515 slash with a .222 ISO in 115 plate appearances. Should we continue to stay in this Lane?

Freddy Peralta Is Breaking Out – Pitcher Video Breakdown

Nick Pollack — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 16:50:43 +0000

Nick analyzes Freddy Peralta for his daily Pitcher Video Breakdown

The post Freddy Peralta Is Breaking Out – Pitcher Video Breakdown appeared first on Pitcher List.

Mets Expected To Make Qualifying Offer To Michael Conforto

Steve Adams — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 16:43:22 +0000

It’s been a poorly timed down year at the plate for Mets outfielder Michael Conforto, who’ll reach free agency for the first time this winter. He’s begun to turn things around at the plate over the past five weeks or so, however, and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes that the team is “primed” to make a qualifying offer to Conforto — an offer he’s quite likely to reject, per DiComo.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote a month ago when previewing the qualifying offer market that Conforto was a likely recipient, even prior to his recent hot streak, so the notion of Conforto being tagged with that one-year offer in the $19MM range isn’t necessarily a surprise in and of itself. Given Conforto’s age — he’ll turn 29 next March — and down season, some might have wondered whether there was a chance he’d accept the qualifying offer. Doing so would’ve come with the possibility of reentering the market in advance of his age-30 season, in 2023, without draft compensation attached to his name and on the heels of a hopeful rebound effort.

As Anthony noted in that previously referenced qualifying offer preview, Conforto still seemed like a decent bet to land a long-term deal based solely on his age and track record. He’s been on a tear over the past month-plus, however, which only figures to increase the chances he’ll both receive and reject the offer.

Granted, Conforto’s .227/.344/.375 batting line isn’t much to look at (104 wRC+), but he’s walking at a strong 12.5 percent clip with similar exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rates to those he’s logged in recent, more-productive seasons. His 41.2 percent hard-hit rate is the second-best of his career, and Conforto has posted his best marks of the past five years in swinging-strike rate and contact rate this season. Last year’s mammoth .322/.412/.515 line in 54 games was a clear outlier (.412 BABIP), but Conforto’s batted-ball and K-BB profiles look quite similar to the hitter who posted a .257/.363/.492 line from 2017-19.

Beyond that, Conforto’s age shouldn’t be understated when looking at his qualifying offer candidacy. Few free agents reach the market prior to their age-30 seasons, and Conforto is particularly young when compared to the rest of the offseason outfield class. Kyle Schwarber is the only other everyday option who’ll play next season at 29. Nick Castellanos, who’s likely to opt out of the remaining two years on his contract with the Reds, will play next year at 30 years of age, but the bulk of the outfield class is a good bit older. Potential everyday options like Starling Marte (33 in 2021), Mark Canha (33) and Tommy Pham (34) are all four or more years older than Conforto.

Conforto is one of two possible qualifying offer candidates for the Mets this winter, with Noah Syndergaard standing as the only other plausible candidate. (Marcus Stroman cannot be issued a second qualifying offer, and Javier Baez is ineligible due to his midseason trade.) Syndergaard’s case isn’t as straightforward, as he hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2019 due primarily to last year’s Tommy John surgery. There’s still a case to be made, based on his track record and upside (plus the Mets’ payroll capacity), that it’s a worthwhile gamble for the team to take, however.

FanDuel: Savage & Average

Barrelman — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 16:30:32 +0000

As we start to wind down the season, it will important to recognize teams and players who are still pushing for the playoffs or single season awards. Teams with nothing to play for will start to rest guys and remove them late in games. We don't want to be sacrificing precious ABs because of oversight. There should be plenty of offense to go around tonight. There is an abundance of mediocre pitching tonight and many of them find themselves in hitters parks. New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 9/15 & 9/16

Nick Pollack — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 14:41:55 +0000

Nick Pollack ranks the starting pitcher streamers for today & tomorrow.

The post SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 9/15 & 9/16 appeared first on Pitcher List.

Jesus Aguilar Unlikely To Return In 2021

Steve Adams — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 14:31:26 +0000

Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar has been on the injured list for the past week with inflammation in his left knee, and he’s “highly unlikely” to return to the active roster in 2021, per Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. He’s received multiple opinions on the knee as the team looks to determine how to treat the injury.

It’s been a productive 2021 campaign at the plate for the 31-year-old Aguilar — his second straight season of quality output after being claimed off waivers from the Brewers organization in Dec. 2019. Between last year’s truncated schedule and this year’s injury-marred finish, Aguilar has appeared in a bit more than a full season’s worth of games as a Marlin, batting a combined .265/.336/.458 with 30 home runs and 33 doubles in 726 plate appearances.

Given last year’s modest $2.575MM salary and this year’s $4.35MM mark, he’s been a bargain for the Fish. As is always the case with Marlins players entering their final arbitration season, there’s at least some degree of uncertainty regarding Aguilar’s future with the club. His 22 homers and 93 runs batted in this season will help to fuel another boost on that $4.35MM salary in arbitration, and while his forthcoming raise wouldn’t be exorbitant, it could push into the $6-7MM range. For some loose context, Nick Castellanos hit 23 home runs and plated 89 runs heading into his final arbitration raise and got bumped from $6.05MM to $9.95MM — a 64.4 percent raise. A raise of similar magnitude would push Aguilar just north of $7MM, but it’s worth pointing out that Castellanos had better rate stats, more games and more plate appearances in his platform season.

Prospect Lewin Diaz has been getting a look in Aguilar’s absence, and his performance could also inform Miami’s eventual decision. While Diaz had a dreadful run earlier this season with the Marlins, he swatted two homers last night and has batted .280/.280/.680 in a tiny sample of 25 plate appearances since being plugged into the everyday lineup. The 24-year-old Diaz isn’t necessarily an elite prospect, but he’s posted a .248/.327/.518 batting line with 20 homers in 74 games and 314 plate appearances with Triple-A Jacksonville this season.

The advent of the universal designated hitter, if it indeed comes to fruition as many expect this winter, could make it easier for the Marlins to retain Aguilar. That’d allow both first basemen to receive regular looks in the lineup, giving Diaz a potentially extended runway to prove himself as a big leaguer without sacrificing the production provided by the steady veteran Aguilar.

The Marlins have all but said they’ll exercise their $5.5MM option on shortstop Miguel Rojas at season’s end, and the only other commitments on their 2022 books are the $3MM they owe to the Yankees as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade and Anthony Bass’ $3MM salary. They’ll have some other raises to consider, most notably Brian Anderson (arb-eligible for a raise on his $3.8MM salary) and first-time arb players like Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez.

Mish reported near the trade deadline that the Marlins had interest in signing Aguilar to an extension, but only through the 2023 season (Twitter link). Perhaps that’d intrigue Aguilar more now, given the recent injury and the broader manner in which the market has come to devalue defensively limited first basemen on the wrong side of 30. On the other hand, Aguilar is only a year from the open market and could theoretically benefit from the potential addition of a DH in the National League, so delaying free agency for just one guaranteed year (at what would presumably be a club-friendly rate) may not hold much appeal. Of course, the eventual diagnosis and prescribed treatment will be critical for both the player and the team as pertains to Agular’s future in Miami.

Inside Lewin Díaz

Jim Chatterton — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 14:10:31 +0000

Breaking down the best hitting performances from yesterday’s games.

The post Inside Lewin Díaz appeared first on Pitcher List.

Buy & Sell 9/15 – Identifying Who to Add and Who to Drop

Ben Pernick — Wed, 15 Sep 2021 14:00:48 +0000

Ben Pernick breaks down the most notable hot and cold hitters this week

The post Buy & Sell 9/15 – Identifying Who to Add and Who to Drop appeared first on Pitcher List.