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Top 20 Outfielders for 2021 Fantasy Baseball

Grey — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 08:00:31 +0000

In an incredible turn of events, I’ve done all the infield 2021 fantasy baseball rankings. Less incredible, you’ve read them. It’s like that time your favorite team won because they played better than that other team but you convinced yourself they won because you cheered louder. When I win the Fantasy Baseball Blogger of the Millennial in 2099, and my frozen head is accepting the award, I’m going to thank you, the readers, but I’m secretly going to be thanking myself. Without me, none of this would be possible. You’re a close second though! Okay, enough ranking of you and me, let’s rank some outfielders! Here’s Steamer’s 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2021 fantasy baseball:

Blue Jays To Sign Marcus Semien

TC Zencka — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 05:00:20 +0000

The Toronto Blue Jays continued their push to join the top tier of contenders in the American League today. The Jays reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18MM deal. In Semien, GM Ross Atkins lands a high-ceiling bat for 2021 and takes another significant piece off the board.

Semien became a star during his six seasons in Oakland, and yet, it wasn’t a clean, linear process. He began his career with the White Sox, but found himself headed to Oakland as part of a December 2014 deal that sent Jeff Samardzija to the White Sox. For the next three seasons, Semien produced as a solid regular with an average of 1.98 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. In 2018, the San Francisco native enjoyed a mini-breakout by cutting his strikeout rate from 22.0 percent to 18.6 percent and bumping his fWAR total to 3.9fWAR. Much of that value, however, came on the defensive end.

His bat caught up in a major way the following season as Semien slashed .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs, 13.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.6 percent walk rate, and 138 wRC+. While Semien’s 7.6 fWAR season earned him a third-place finish in AL MVP voting, it’s fair to question whether the hulk-out was an outlier. He’s never been an All-Star (for what that’s worth), and outside of his galvanizing 2019 campaign, Semien hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100. Even considering a down 2020, however, he has consistently been between 92 and 98 wRC+. Take that with the potential value he brings on defense, and even if Semien doesn’t re-emerge as an MVP candidate, Toronto has acquired a player with a high floor with potential for more.

Defensively, his glovework has received mixed reviews: subpar numbers by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, but generally more positive numbers in recent years by DRS and UZR. Regardless, moving to second base should secure his glove as a plus asset. Frankly, Semien’s willingness to play second base is a boon for the Blue Jays, who can continue to flex star Bo Bichette at shortstop while moving Cavan Biggio across the diamond to third, as notes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has notably been preparing himself for reps at third base, though he’s more likely start most games at first. That foursome has the potential to form one of the most fearsome infield groups in the game – especially if their homegrown trio continues to grow into their vast potential.

Toronto’s impactful offseason now includes the additions of Semien and George Springer to the lineup, while they have bolstered the bullpen with Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood. They also struck early in the offseason to keep Robbie Ray in their rotation. Even after the additions of Springer and Semien (plus Hyun Jin Ryu last winter), their luxury tax payroll is still projected to be around $146MM. While that’s miles from the luxury tax line, it does represent an increase from their 2020 payroll, both in terms of the luxury tax count and in real dollars, where their year-over-year payrool has jumped from approximately $118MM to $132MM.

In terms of value, the Jays have to be thrilled to get a talent like Semien on a one-year deal. MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14MM contract for Semien, so he did slightly better in terms of that dollar amount that we projected for him. He should bolster their lineup on both sides of the ball while maintaining long-term flexibility. Toronto has infield prospects Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin who could be ready to join the lineup before long, should the Jays not want to commit long-term money to Semien after 2021. That kind of flexibility has, in some ways, surpassed even raw talent in terms of the value it holds for owners. Not to mention, with Freddy Galvis signing in Baltimore, the pool of free agent shortstops is rapidly shrinking. Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorius are now the top options still available in free agency

For Semien, he comes just a touch shy of what he would have made had the A’s extended a qualifying offer. Had Oakland extended the $18.9MM qualifying offer, they would have received a draft pick when Semien signed elsewhere, but they were wary of issuing a contract of that size, even on a one-year term. Semien now gets to re-enter free agency next year as part of the stacked class of free agent shortstops that may include Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, and Javier Baez.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) first broke news of the deal, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan added the terms of the deal (via Twitter), and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chimed in with Toronto’s defensive plans for Semien. Many have also noted that former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga broke this news earlier today on instagram. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Infield Notes: Phillies, Simmons, Wong, Tigers, Paredes

TC Zencka — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 04:49:15 +0000

The Phillies had narrowed their focus on Andrelton Simmons before he signed with the Twins this afternoon, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Didi Gregorius remains in play to return, but he may not be so keen on returning on another one-year deal. Regardless, the Phillies prefer not to move Jean Segura back to short, notes Lauber. Even with Gregorius more-or-less the only remaining starting shortstop on the market, Segura’s presence, as well as Scott Kingery, means they don’t have to panic on an overpay. Should they ultimatley strike out on Gregorius, the Phils could turn to the trade market and make a play for either Trevor Story of the Rockies or Javier Baez of the Cubs. Neither clubs has seemed particularly likely to move their star shortstop, but Phillies’ president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski might be the guy to convince them. Let’s check in on some other infield news…

With middle infielders flying off the shelves, Kolten Wong is seeing an uptick in interest, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The ace defensive second baseman has seen at least preliminary interest from the Tigers, Mariners, Rays, Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals, with whom he’s spent his entire career. Wong’s power disappeared in 2020, slashing .265/.350/.326, but he won a second consecutive Gold Glove Award and continue to be an on-base presence for the Cardinals. Wong has quietly posted 3.3 bWAR per 600 plate appearances throughout his career, and as he enters his age-30 season, he could prove one of the more impactful free agents remaining on the market.
The Tigers plan on experimenting with Isaac Paredes at second base, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Paredes is penciled in as the Tigers’ everyday third baseman, but manager A.J. Hinch said basically that there is expanding the 21-year-olds skill set. He’s been on fire playing winter ball, and with Jeimer Candelario having a big season in 2020 and Spencer Torkleson on his way to claim one of the infield corners, it’s certainly worth testing the limits of Paredes’ defensive abilities.

Tigers Finalizing Deal With Wilson Ramos

TC Zencka — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 02:36:25 +0000

The Tigers are close to signing free agent catcher Wilson Ramos to a one-year, $2MM deal, per José F. Fivera of Wow Deportes (via Twitter).

More to come…

Tigers To Sign Wilson Ramos

TC Zencka — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 02:36:25 +0000

The Tigers are close to signing free agent catcher Wilson Ramos to a one-year, $2MM deal, per José F. Fivera of Wow Deportes (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of MLB Network confirms the deal (via Twitter).

Ramos returns to the American League Central for the first time since beginning his career with the Minnesota Twins. Since his debut in 2010, Ramos has accrued 3,623 plate appearances across 946 games for the Nationals, Rays, Phillies, and Mets. “Buffalo” was a popular player in the District, but an injury while he was in the final stages of arbitration prompted the Nats to let him walk in free agency.

More to come…

Twins, Andrelton Simmons Reach Agreement On One-Year Deal

TC Zencka — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 01:24:06 +0000

The Twins have reached an agreement with free agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons on a one-year, $10.5MM contract, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Simmons would be the third shortstop and fourth infielder to come off the board in the past few hours.

More to come…

Twins To Sign Andrelton Simmons

TC Zencka — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 01:24:06 +0000

The Twins have reached an agreement with free agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons on a one-year, $10.5MM contract, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Per the Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman (via Twitter), the deal is done, pending a physical. The ISE Baseball client is the third shortstop and fourth infielder to come off the board in the past few hours. Didi Gregorius is now the last remaining of the notable free agent shortstops, with at least the Phillies and Reds still looking to fill the position.

The Twins step in from somewhat out of the blue to sign Simmons – but not entirely. Twins GM Thad Levine flagged the potential for a move like this recently in saying that the defensive versatility of their current roster gave them options in free agency. Jorge Polanco will slide over to second base, while Luis Arraez will move around the diamond as needed, notes Passan. Levine spoke of being impressed by the Dodgers’ malleability in the World Series, noting that his own roster could flex similarly, especially with manager Rocco Baldelli as a capable tactician at the wheel. If nothing else, with Simmons at short, Josh Donaldson at third, and Byron Buxton in center, the Twins boast a defense with upside enough to make a difference. Moving Polanco off short and installing Simmons in his place – on its own – has the makings of an impactful upgrade.

The four-time Gold Glove Award winner has long been considered the tastemaker with the glove at short, though ankle injuries have limited his contributions the past two seasons. His glovework was worth -1 outs above average over a 30-game sample in 2020, but in just 103 games the year prior, he was second among all shortstops with 12 OAA. It’s not at all a reach to suggest that Simmons is a generational talent on the defensive end.

There are more questions on the offensive side of the game. For his career, Simmons owns a slash line of .269/.317/.379 with a career 90 wRC+. The 31-year-old won’t be asked to carry the weight of the offense on a Twins’ club that has been known for its power output in recent years. Of course, two major contributors to the Bomba Squad – Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz – are currently free agents.

Last season, Simmons slashed .297/.346/.356 across 127 plate appearances with a 12.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate. Simmons is one of the toughest players in the game to strikeout, though that’s in part because he’s a free swinger who doesn’t take many walks. His batter ball numbers weren’t good in 2020 – for example, zero barrels – but in such a small sample it’s tough to glean much actual insight.

The question Twins fans will ask if whether this signing precludes Minnesota from a reunion with designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Signing Simmons at this price point for one year could certainly be seen as away they might look to save money. In terms of maximizing flexibility, replacing Cruz with Simmons certainly accomplishes the task. That said, there’s an argument to be made that adding Simmons to the defense make Cruz an even better fit on the offensive end. Last we heard, however, there hasn’t been much movement on talks between the Twins and Cruz. That figures to change, or way or another, with Simmons now in the fold. The Twins might not be done, however. Per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter), someone with the clubs says they have “two more moves ahead before the offseason is out.”

In terms of his value relative to the market, Minnesota nets Simmons for slightly less than we projected for Simmons at the outset of free agency – MLBTR thought he would make $12MM. He lands pretty firmly between the one-year deals signed by his peers today. Marcus Semien signed for $18MM, while Freddy Galvis signed for $1.5MM. All three will not re-enter free agency next season when Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez are also set to hit the open market.

Giants Nearing Agreement With Tommy La Stella

TC Zencka — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 01:17:37 +0000

The Giants are close to signing free agent Tommy La Stella, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (via Twitter).

More to come…

Updating Our MLB Agency Database

Tim Dierkes — Wed, 27 Jan 2021 00:23:10 +0000

One of my goals for MLBTR for 2021 is to update our agency database and improve its functionality. Once the database is revamped, it will feature anyone who played in the Majors in the last three seasons as well as Baseball America’s most recent top 100 prospects, and we’ll work hard to keep it up-to-date. As it stands, our database has a fair number of inaccuracies as well as missing agencies for certain players. I’ve created a Google spreadsheet here with our current info. If you work for an agency and have corrections or additions, please drop me a line at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com. I also welcome corrections if they come from a recent credible article, which you can link to in the comments of this post. We appreciate the help.

Orioles Sign Freddy Galvis

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 23:29:02 +0000

The Baltimore Orioles have signed shortstop Freddy Galvis to a one-year contract, the team announced. The Rep 1 Baseball client will receive $1.5MM with a $250K trade bonus, per Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter). There is not an option for a second year.

Another shortstop comes off the board. Galvis takes over at short for the recently-traded Jose Iglesias, another veteran whom the Orioles signed in free agency.

More to come…

No Players Elected To Hall Of Fame

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 23:26:17 +0000

There were no players who received the 75 percent vote threshold necessary for election into the Hall of Fame. Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds, and Roger Clemens came closest to achieving the necessary vote total, but they ultimately fell short. Schilling came the closest with 71.1% of the vote, while Scott Rolen saw the biggest year-over-year jump. There were 14 blank ballots.

Controversy surrounded this year’s ballot in particular because it was considered a weaker overall class of first-time nominees. That meant that the holdovers took center stage, a group largely comprised of players with character issues at the heart of their Hall of Fame cases, namely Schilling, Bonds, Clemens, and Omar Vizquel.

The induction ceremony will still take place on July 25, 2021. Last year’s induction ceremony was postponed because of the pandemic, so last year’s class of Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons and the late Marvin Miller will hopefully be inducted in during that July ceremony, though much still hangs in the balance as far as the pandemic is concerned.

More to come…

Latest On The Issue Of A Delayed Spring Training

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 22:41:43 +0000

Members of the Cactus League penned a letter to MLB and commissioner Rob Manfred yesterday requesting the delay of Spring Training due to a rising number of coronavirus cases in Maricopa County. The MLBPA responded swiftly, reinforcing their position that they have no plans to delay the season. MLB cannot delay the start of spring training without approval from the MLBPA.

After news of the letter broke yesterday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote, “Both MLB and the players association put out bland statements. The key behind the scenes is to know the union sees the Cactus League officials as tools of MLB.”

Today, Alex Coffey of the Athletic reports that a representative from MLB “encouraged members of the Cactus League to write a letter to to commissioner Rob Manfred voicing a desire to delay the start of spring training…” Truthfully, this revelation doesn’t likely change much, as those involved clearly already had a sense for the politics at play here, and the MLBPA seemed wholly unmoved by the letter.

Meanwhile, Cactus League executive director Bridget Binsbacher denies that there was any pressure from the league to write the letter. Coffey provides a quote from a source that seems to put this public squabble in perspective: “I do think two things can be true. City leaders feel like they are doing right on health policy. The owners and league staff are using that to their advantage, perhaps without the cities having any sense about it.”

Certainly, though it’s easy to demonize MLB for politicizing the pandemic and using public opinion to coerce the MLBPA into a weaker negotiating position so that they might achieve their financial goals, the MLBPA can be cast in an equally harsh light if we assume a delay really is the safest course of action. Negotiating through the public square usually creates particularly antagonistic optics, but the reality here is that the two sides are going to keep negotiating on these points until they find an acceptable common ground.

In the meantime, the beat goes on. The Arizona Diamondbacks released a statement detailing the progress that continues to be made in preparation for the season. From the release: “The U.S. Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) joined the Cactus League, its teams and spring training facilities, and state and local partners Tuesday for a virtual tabletop exercise to review pre-incident preparedness measures and response plans at stadiums during spring training. While several of the teams and stadiums regularly review plans and conduct drills, for the second year in a row, a leaguewide exercise was held to allow everyone to share best practices and discuss coordination should an incident affect more than one venue. The exercise scenario included an information and intelligence sharing piece among public and private sectors, and an active threat at a ballpark. Tuesday’s exercise was held virtually due to COVID-19 restrictions and was not in a response to any specific threat.”

Twins GM Thad Levine Discusses Offseason

Mark Polishuk — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 22:33:03 +0000

Twins general manager Thad Levine provided some general updates on his team’s winter plans during a podcast interview with SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (audio link). With J.A. Happ signed to the rotation earlier this week, more additions could still be in the offing, since Levine feels “we’re starting to see things really de-congest” in the free agent market.

“We’re not done. We still have some flexibility, we’re still having ongoing conversations, we still see many ways we can improve this team both from a qualitative standpoint and from a depth standpoint,” Levine said.

As you might expect, Levine declined to get into detail about many names, but did note that the Twins are “staying in touch” with reliever Tyler Clippard and “are in constant conversation” with Nelson Cruz’s representatives. Interestingly, Wolfson opened the pre-interview portion of the podcast by noting that talks have been “pretty dead” between Cruz and the Twins, and it has been some time since the club presented Cruz with an offer. As Wolfson puts it, however, “all it takes is one new call” to reignite talks, as both sides are pretty familiar with each other’s positions. As has been the case all offseason, Cruz’s situation might not be resolved until there is firmer clarity on whether or not the National League will use the DH in 2021.

In terms of specific needs, the Twins are always interested in more arms (“If in doubt, add more pitching,” Levine said), particularly as pitchers re-adjust to throwing more innings in the wake of the abbreviated 2020 season. Beyond pitchers, Levine is open to all possibilities on the position-player front, due to Minnesota’s versatile roster.

“When we look at the free agent market, we do not feel limited in terms of bats that we can go recruit….We do have such amazing flexibility within our team [that] you could almost recruit a player at about any position on the field and still make it work,” the GM said.

The Twins are also exploring options on the trade market, and Levine said that technically, there aren’t any so-called untouchable players on the roster — as a general principle, the organization has to be open to anything should an opportunity arise, but obviously the Twins are “less inclined” to shop or discuss certain top-tier players and prospects. Levine also added that the Twins had received trade interest in “over 30 distinct players” within the organization over the last year, which the general manager considered a positive endorsement of Minnesota’s talent depth at both the Major League and minor league levels.

Brewers Among Teams Showing Interest In Justin Turner

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 21:51:55 +0000

Yesterday we learned that free agent Justin Turner had a final four teams he was considering for 2021. The Dodgers and Blue Jays have long been known as interested parties, but now we can add the Brewers as the third team looking to woo Turner, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Turner wants a four-year deal, but that seems unlikely for the 36-year-old. The Dodgers hope to bring him back for two, but if another team is willing to go to three years for the GEM Agency client, that could be enough to pry Turner from LA. Whether the Blue Jays, Brewers, or the final mystery team are willing to make that kind of commitment to Turner is TBD.

The Brewers are an interesting entrant into the Turner sweepstakes. They have about $25MM before hitting their luxury tax payroll from 2020, so there’s room for a splashy addition if the Brewers are going to maintain their payroll. That’s a big “if,” however. The Brewers have been largely inactive thus far, however, with their only Major League contract going to infielder Daniel Robertson, who figures to play a reserve role for Milwaukee.

The Brewers have a host of young, promising, but unproven infield contributors who could move around the diamond to accommodate Turner. Keston Hiura demands a lineup spot, and he’ll probably play the keystone, while Luis Urias and Orlando Arcia are their other likely starters. Arcia has had more than enough time to establish himself, and outside of some postseason and big-game heroics, he hasn’t done enough to guarantee his starting spot. A career slash line of .244/.295/.366, with a roughly-average 20.1 percent strikeout rate, and below-average 6.6 percent walk rate definitely leaves room for improvement. Turner’s 130 wRC+, for instance, would give the Brewers’ lineup quite the boost from Arcia’s 71 wRC+ career mark.

Tigers To Sign Derek Holland

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 21:14:05 +0000

JAN 26: If Holland makes the Major League team, he will make $925K with the potential for another $150K in incentives, per Petzold (via Twitter). He will also have opportunities to opt out of the contract should he not make the Major League team, though the exact conditions of those opt-outs are unclear.

JAN 23: Derek Holland is a Detroit Tiger, he announced via his Twitter bio. The veteran lefty will join the Tigers on a minor league deal, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). The Tigers will invite Holland to Major League camp with the intention of utilizing him out of the bullpen, notes Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter). The deal has not been announced by the club.

The well-traveled southpaw spent 2020 with the Pirates after previous stops on the Cubs, Giants, White Sox and Rangers. He’s best known for his eight-year stay with the Rangers from 2009 to 2016. He spent much of that time in the Rangers’ rotation, including one start in the 2011 World Series. Holland went 8 1/3 innings giving up just two hits and two walks while striking out seven to beat the Cardinals 4-0. Though that series didn’t end as planned for the Rangers, Holland’s performance in that game four win certainly marked a highlight for the then-25-year-old. Holland was a bit of a breakout star on that 2011 pennant-winning team, throwing 198 innings with a 3.95 ERA/3.94 FIP and 3.1 fWAR.

His best overall season would come two years later. During that 4.5 fWAR 2013 campaign, Holland logged 213 innings with a 3.42 ERA/3.44 FIP, 40.8 percent groundball rate, 21.1 percent strikeout rate, and 7.2 percent walk rate. Unfortunately, Holland’s career took a turn the following season when left knee surgery cut his season to just 37 innings. Shoulder problems limited his 2016 season to 10 starts and 58 2/3 innings as his run prevention numbers rose to a 4.91 ERA/5.30 FIP.

Holland has since settled in as a swingman, primarily working out of the bullpen the past two seasons. He made five starts and seven bullpen appearances for the Pirates in 2020, finishing with a 6.86 ERA/6.14 FIP. Though those numbers don’t offer much promise, and batted ball metrics show he’s been hit hard the past two years, he did log a solid 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 8.4 percent walk rate.

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 886 – Starting Pitchers 11-20

Paul Sporer — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 21:04:37 +0000

1/26/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

Chas McCormick gut feeling (3:36)
Adam Ottavino to BOS (10:07)
Cesar Hernandez back to CLE (15:02)

NEXT 10 SPs

Jack Flaherty OVR ADP – 29 (21:17)
Brandon Woodruff 29 (24:24)
Clayton Kershaw 31 (28:02)
Zac Gallen 38 (31:30)
Blake Snell 44 (34:20)
Kenta Maeda 45 (39:20)
Tyler Glasnow 46 (43:43)
Lance Lynn 55 (47:37)
Zach Plesac 57 (51:22)
Corbin Burnes 58 (1:01:15)

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 68 minutes of joyous analysis.

Phillies Sign Ivan Nova To Minors Contract

Mark Polishuk — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 20:57:58 +0000

The Phillies have signed right-hander Ivan Nova to a minor league deal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). Nova will earn $1.5MM if he cracks Philadelphia’s active roster.

More analysis to come…

Braves Sign Ehire Adrianza To Minors Contract

Mark Polishuk — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 20:48:41 +0000

The Braves have signed infielder Ehire Adrianza to a minor league deal, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

More analysis to come….

MLBTR Live Chat

Steve Adams — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 20:02:04 +0000

Click here to join Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 20:02:04 +0000

Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

Phillies To Sign J.T. Realmuto

Mark Polishuk — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 19:54:03 +0000

The Phillies and J.T. Realmuto are reuniting, as the two sides have agreed to a five-year deal worth $115.5MM, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid (Twitter link). The contract will become official when Realmuto passes a physical. Realmuto is represented by CAA Sports.

More analysis to come…

Twins, Brewers Have Talked With Marcus Semien

Mark Polishuk — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 19:42:15 +0000

Two new teams can be added to the list of potential Marcus Semien suitors, as SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link) that the Twins and Brewers have each spoken with representatives for the free agent shortstop. While Semien might not necessarily join one of those two clubs, Wolfson writes that there is some sense that Semien is “moving closer to a decision.”

Minnesota has been speculatively linked to Semien for months, considering that the Twins have been known to be monitoring the middle infield market as part of their rather broad range of free agent considerations. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote back in September that acquiring a new everyday shortstop or second baseman would allow Minnesota to shift either Jorge Polanco or Luis Arraez into super-utility duty, thus effectively filling Marwin Gonzalez’s old role as a Swiss Army knife off the bench.

Or, it isn’t out of the question that Semien could find himself playing elsewhere than shortstop, if the Twins were one of the teams considering him at other infield positions. It’s probably safe to assume that Semien would get the bulk of the action at shortstop in Minnesota, but if he was open to playing some second base (or even third base, to occasionally spell Josh Donaldson), it would further increase manager Rocco Baldelli’s flexibility in regards to lineup construction and in-game maneuvering.

J.A. Happ and Hansel Robles have been added on the pitching side, but the Twins have yet to make a significant position player move this winter. There isn’t yet any news on the Nelson Cruz front, and Minnesota already said goodbye to a notable power bat when Eddie Rosario was non-tendered (though the team hopes that top prospect Alex Kirilloff can immediately step in to fill Rosario’s shoes). Before salaries were reduced last season, the Twins had a non-prorated $132MM payroll projected for 2020 and currently have a little over $100MM committed for the 2021 roster, so there is theoretically room to add at least one more big salary while still not approaching their 2020 spending.

Signing Semien would perhaps be an even more interesting move from the Brewers’ perspective, and it would mark the first big-ticket addition of the offseason within an NL Central that has collectively seemed more focused on cutting payroll than planning to contend. It could be that the division’s general inactivity has given Milwaukee some inspiration in making a move that could separate the team in the playoff race, even if it means stretching the budget to some extent. Granted, there was considerable debate over what Semien’s next contract would look like even in the early days of the offseason, and as we approach February, it’s possible Semien’s asking price has dipped into the Brewers’ range. Milwaukee had a pre-proration payroll of just under $97.5MM in 2020 and are just shy of $85MM in projected payroll for 2021 thanks to some notable contracts (including Ryan Braun) coming off the books.

Semien would immediately solidify a rather uncertain left side of the Milwaukee infield, as Orlando Arcia and Luis Urias are respectively slated as the starting shortstop and third baseman. Daniel Robertson and Jace Peterson have also been added this winter as backup infield options. Similar to the aforementioned scenario with Semien and the Twins, Semien would likely mostly play shortstop in Milwaukee but perhaps also get some work at other infield spots to stay in the lineup every day while the Brew Crew juggles their other players in and out of the lineup.

Indians, Cesar Hernandez Agree To New Deal

Steve Adams — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 19:21:44 +0000

1:21pm: Hernandez will earn $5MM, Heyman tweets.

9:12am: The two sides are in agreement on a deal, pending the completion of a physical, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

9:02am: The Indians are nearing a deal to re-sign free agent second baseman Cesar Hernandez, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. If completed, it’d be a one-year deal with a club option for a second season in 2022. Hernandez, an Octagon client, has left his winter league team in Venezuela in order to finalize the new contract, according to Alvarez.

The 30-year-old Hernandez spent the 2020 season as Cleveland’s primary second baseman after signing a one-year, $6.25MM deal last winter. That contract paid off nicely for the club, as Hernandez turned in a characteristically solid .283/.355/.408 batting line with three homers and an AL-best 20 doubles while playing in 58 of the 60 games during last year’s shortened slate. He also went 3-for-8 with another double in his tiny sample of postseason work.

Beyond his strong showing at the plate, Hernandez enjoyed an excellent year in the field. The eight-year big league veteran took home his first Gold Glove in 2020 after posting strong marks in Defensive Runs Saved (6), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.8) and Outs Above Average (4).

The Hernandez reunion will be the first move made by Cleveland this winter that actually adds to the payroll. The Indians have been largely focused on shedding as much salary as possible, having declined a $10MM option on Brad Hand — he recently agreed to a $10.5MM deal with the Nats — and traded both Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets. Prior to the new agreement with Hernandez, the Indians were projected to carry a payroll of less than $40MM, which was far and away the lowest projected payroll in the game.

That said, an affordable deal for Hernandez could provide some indirect cost savings down the line. Cleveland picked up middle infielders Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez from the Mets in that Lindor/Carrasco blockbuster, and if Gimenez spends even a few weeks in the minor leagues this year, his path to free agency would be pushed back from the 2025-26 offseason to the 2026-27 offseason. That surely isn’t the sole reason Cleveland brought Hernandez back — he’s a solid player at a reasonable price who can now be retained through 2022 — but starting the year with Rosario at short and Hernandez at second undeniably has some added appeal for that reason.

Final judgment on the Indians’ chances in 2021 will be reserved until we see what further additions (and/or subtractions) the team makes between now and Opening Day. But it’s clear that after trading away not only Lindor and Carrasco but also Mike Clevinger, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and buying out Hand’s option that the team is aiming for a radically lower payroll that will render it difficult to compete with an aggressive White Sox club and a Twins roster that has won consecutive division titles.

Deep Thoughts: The Wil To Change

Coolwhip — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 19:15:05 +0000

This is a piece I have been saving to write all winter long. The kind of short season that Wil Myers had, that the Padres had, was the stuff of legend. And equally so, that they fell short of the finish line getting knocked out by the Dodgers after the top of their rotation was unavailable like a plot right out of a Brad Pitt movie. We all saw the storyline of Slam Diego unfold, and Myers was at the center of it. The story of Slam Diego is not simply about a team getting hot and going on an incredible run (only to be cut down in the playoffs). It's about a change in team philosophy and identity. And none perhaps in that lineup more evident than Myers.

AL Central Notes: Indians, Rosario, Bradley, Brebbia, Tigers

Mark Polishuk — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 18:57:14 +0000

The Indians made a notable move in agreeing to re-sign Cesar Hernandez earlier today, and more signings could be in the offing, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Cleveland has “more irons in the free agent fire.” That interest doesn’t seem to extend to Eddie Rosario, however, as Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Rosario is “not on the team’s radar.” Jackie Bradley Jr. may also not be an option, as while the Tribe likes the former Gold Glove winner, Pluto believes Bradley will be too expensive for Cleveland’s liking.

Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Top Catchers For 2021 Fantasy Baseball

Ralph Lifshitz — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 18:30:14 +0000

*KICKS DOWN DOOR* (Loud non-descript 80s metal plays; a man steps to the mic). Are you ready? *Crowd Cheers* Are you ready for... *Crowds cheers more loudly* Are you ready for 2021 catcher ranks? Everyone stops cheering, looking at each other with bewilderment, turns away sadly and leaves. Except one man, the hero America needs. Position scarcity man, stands there unshaken by the thought of ranking catchers, for he remembers the hey day of position scarcity, he owned Mike Piazza and he's never letting go. We're ranking catchers this week. Enjoy!

Nationals Sign Brad Hand

Anthony Franco — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 18:05:59 +0000

12:05PM: Hand will receive $4MM of his salary in 2021, according to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link). The other $6.5MM will be deferred, and paid to Hand over the three-year span of 2022-24.

10:39AM: The Nationals have continued an increasingly busy offseason, announcing on Tuesday that they’ve signed lefty Brad Hand to a one-year contract. The Jet Sports client will reportedly receive a $10.5MM salary for the upcoming season and will again be a free agent next winter.

Hand, 30, has been one of the league’s best relievers over the past five seasons. He broke out with the Padres in 2016 immediately after being claimed off waivers from the Marlins. San Diego traded him to the Indians midway through the 2018 season, where he continued to shine. In two-plus seasons in Cleveland, Hand pitched to a 2.78 ERA over 107 relief innings with a stellar combination of strikeouts (34.8%) and walks (7.9%).

Despite that consistent run of success, the Indians made the decision to decline a $10MM option on Hand’s services for 2021 after last season. Before paying Hand a $1MM buyout, Cleveland placed him on outright waivers in the hope another club would claim him and exercise the option (thus saving them the cost of the buyout). All thirty teams passed on the opportunity to bring in Hand at that $10MM price point.

In the long run, though, Hand makes out a bit better than he would have had Cleveland (or any other team) simply exercised the option. In addition to picking up the aforementioned buyout money, Hand winds up guaranteed an extra $500K in 2021 salary. Of course, teams have a better understanding of their payroll outlooks now than they did last October. The free agent market, while extremely slow, has also been a bit more favorable than many expected on the heels of a 2020 season without gate revenue.

While Hand’s results haven’t tailed off at all, his velocity has fallen rather precipitously over the past couple seasons. Hand averaged a solid 93.8 MPH on his fastball as recently as 2018. That mark fell to 92.7 MPH the following season and was down to 91.4 MPH last year. His swinging strike rate, too, was down notably in 2020. From 2016-19, Hand reliably got whiffs on around 13% of his pitches each season. Last year, that rate was down to a slightly below-average 10.5%.

Despite Hand’s dip in velocity, it’s easy to see the appeal for Washington. The Nationals’ bullpen has been a persistent problem for years. Last season was no exception, as Washington relievers ranked 23rd in the league in ERA (4.68) and 22nd in SIERA (4.46). Longtime closer Sean Doolittle is now a free agent, leaving very little in the way of proven left-handed relievers on the roster. It remains to be seen whether Hand will take over the ninth inning, as he generally had in Cleveland, or if manager Dave Martinez plans to use Hand in high-leverage spots in the middle innings and let Daniel Hudson close.

After signing Hand, Washington’s projected payroll is up to $199MM, per Roster Resource. That’s a $12MM increase over last season’s figure (prior to prorating), so it’s not clear whether or to what extent ownership will greenlight further spending. The Nationals’ luxury tax ledger sits just below $196MM, Roster Resource estimates, $14MM shy of the first tax threshold.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network fist reported that the two sides were close to a deal (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the agreement was in place (Twitter link).

Sink or Spin: What Makes Sinkers Effective?

Natan Cristol-Deman — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 18:00:29 +0000

Seam-Shifted Wake is cool, but does it actually make pitches better?

The post Sink or Spin: What Makes Sinkers Effective? appeared first on Pitcher List.

2021 or Bust: Andrew Benintendi

Travis Sherer — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 17:00:55 +0000

We are so far away from win, dance, repeat.

The post 2021 or Bust: Andrew Benintendi appeared first on Pitcher List.

Late-Round Evaluations: Patiño, Martinez, Wainwright, & Others

Jeff Zimmerman — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 16:25:21 +0000

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of six more starters. You can find the other editions here:

#454: Adrian Houser

Houser was a popular sleeper pick coming into the 2020 season and he disappointed his owners. Houser struggled to repeat his 2019 strikeout rate (9.5 K/9) and more of his batted balls went for hits.

Starting with the strikeout rate, I’m a little surprised it was that high in 2019 (25.3% K%) with just a 10% SwStr%. Usually, the K% is twice the SwStr%. In 2020, he still had the 10% SwStr% but his K% dropped to 18%. I don’t see his strikeout rate improving since his fastballs are his best pitches.

Adrian Houser’s Pitch Mix

Pitch	SwStr%	GB%	Usage
Sinker	10%	69%	44%
Four-seamer	13%	36%	20%
Curve	8%	75%	12%
Slider	8%	50%	12%
Change	8%	53%	12%

Besides generating some groundballs, his three non-fastballs are essentially useless. He could take a major step forward if just one non-fastball was league average.

The other issue is that more of Houser’s groundballs went for hits. After digging around with his profile, two causes stick out. First, the Brewers as a whole were below average in the field with a .296 BABIP (10th highest) and -6.4 UZR (8th lowest). The second cause was bad luck. He’s seen high BABIP’s before and bounced back.

His BABIP was high last season but nothing out of the norm.

He’s just not an exciting pitcher without the high strikeout rate. He’s still useful and reminds me of Brad Keller who is being drafted 150 picks earlier. Acceptable.

#445: Luis Patiño

By the upcoming mid-season, Patiño’s fantasy valuation could be different than the following evaluation. There are just so many unknowns surrounding him. Fantasy managers need to make sure they don’t anchor him to a single profile.

First the good. He can strikeout batters with a 96-mph fastball. To pair with it, he has two average or better non-fastballs. The first is his change that the prospect evaluators love but last year it was just league average. His slider performed better than than the change (16% SwStr% vs 13% StStr%) but got worse scouting grades. In 17 innings, he was able to post 10.9 K/9 against major league hitters.

As for the bad, he couldn’t throw strikes and posted a 7.3 BB/9. While his minor league walk rates never reach into the sevens, he did struggle with walks (4.7 BB/9 in AA).

Another unknown is how will the Rays handle the 20-year-old. Will they develop him as a starter or reliever? Will he spend most of the season in the minors trying to reign in his command? Will he get the walks under control?

He has a profile that I’m not going to take a chance in any redraft league format. He’s someone I’m to monitor from afar and hope his future clears up.

#434: Logan Gilbert

Gilbert is a prospect in the Mariners system and all my takes would be rehashing other writers’ scouting reports. It’s not that the reports are wrong, rookie pitchers are just a group of players I’m lower on than most other drafters. Between injuries and talent changes, few meet expectations.

Sure there is a point I’d consider Gilbert in a 15-team, 50-round draft-and-hold but it would be about pick 600. I’m fine with missing out on the gamble. I can’t draft everyone and I’d rather have Adrian Houser if given the option.

#429: Daniel Ponce de Leon

Ponce de Leon’s 2020 season followed that of Austin Gomber, who struggled to find a grove while the Cardinals were missing games and playing tons of doubleheaders. By season’s end, they got in a groove. Over Ponce de Leon’s last three starts, he posted a 12.7 K/9, 0.76 WHIP, and 2.65 ERA. Before those games, his ERA was 7.47 with a 1.91 WHIP (8.6 BB/9).

His repertoire is unique. His 93-mph fastball is a one-of-kind with a career 15% SwStr% and just a 27% GB%. The ball misses bats high in the zone, but because of the pitch’s flyball nature, it gives up a ton of homers. He’s not someone to start in a small park (e.g. Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark) for sure.

Additionally, he throws a curve that doesn’t miss bats (4% SwStr%) but generates a decent number of groundballs (57% GB%). Also, his cutter took a major step forward last season with a 15% SwStr%.

Finally, he gives up his fair share of free passes with a career 4.6 K/9. Those walks, when paired with his home run nature, can lead to some blowups.

He’s a streaming option for me who may or may not be on my roster depending on the league’s depth. The chance does exist for a step forward if he quits walking so many batters.

#428: Adam Wainwright

The 40-year-old Wainwright will continue to be himself by throwing a ton of innings with a below-average strikeout rate but an excellent walk rate. He’ll have an ERA around 4.50 and 1.40 WHIP. While the expected stats aren’t impressive after his 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP from last season, they are more in-line with his five-year average (4.43 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). Expect more of the same.

The only remaining question is if he will sign or hang up his cleats

#427: Carlos Martinez

His talent level is a mess to nail down with all his injuries, talent adjustments, and changing roles. After successfully navigating the turmoil over the years, he imploded last season.

He started the season on the COVID IL and ended it with another IL trip for his back and oblique. Between those two IL stints and turbulent schedule, he saw his fastball velocity drop 3 mph from the previous season. The velocity drop led to a 7.7 K/9 and made his pitches more hittable (2.7 HR/9, .366 BABIP). To compound the problems, he posted a 4.5 BB/9. Too many walks and home runs and his 9.90 ERA should not be a surprise.

His velocity drop is the factor that matters most to me. If it’s back up, it shows that he’s healthy and back to his previous talent level. Otherwise, something is obviously wrong. Tracking his Spring Training velocity will be paramount. If he’s falling this far into a draft, what is the downside of adding him, especially if he can be sent to the waiver wire and replaced?

Mets Have Made Offer To Trevor Bauer

Steve Adams — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 16:17:07 +0000

The Mets’ interest in Trevor Bauer has reached the point that they’ve made a formal offer to the right-hander, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). However, despite a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicating that the Mets have put forth a record-setting annual value in their offer, each of Martino, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand report that the Mets do not have an offer that strong on the table. Nightengale has since walked back the AAV portion of his report but further tweeted that a Mets source “confirmed” they’ve made a formal offer to Bauer (obviously, at a non-record-setting rate).

The current AAV record is held by Gerrit Cole, whose nine-year contract with the Yankees pays him an average of $36MM per year. There’s been plenty of speculation on the possibility of Bauer eclipsing that mark but on a shorter-term arrangement. MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes took a look at whether Bauer and agent Rachel Luba would have a legitimate case for seeking such a deal earlier this winter, concluding that a record AAV offer would likely need to come in at four or fewer years in total length. That topic has proven quite polarizing, with many onlookers pointing to Cole’s superior track record and consistency. However, as Tim explored, teams are typically willing to pay substantial premiums in terms of AAV if it limits the overall length of a contract.

Bauer hasn’t closed the door on any contract structure since his free agency began. As recently as 2019, the right-hander insisted he’d only sign one-year contracts upon reaching the market, playing out his career in mercenary-esque, year-to-year fashion. He’s softened that stance this winter, as both he and Luba have voiced an openness to longer-term deals. The potential for opt-out provisions to be baked into any multi-year agreement could certainly impact negotiations as well.

Ultimately, there’s no way of knowing whether a short-term deal with a record annual rate would prove enticing enough for Bauer — if any team is even willing to make such an offer in the first place — or whether he’d prefer the security of a longer-term pact at a lower price point. The answer there is quite likely dependent on the team making the offer. Bauer has stressed on his YouTube channel that he’s seeking a “partnership” with a win-now team that will support his desire to grow his brand on social media and have an “honest” conversation about him pitching every fourth day. The Mets, Angels and Blue Jays have all been linked to Bauer in recent weeks, and other pitching-needy teams are surely at least keeping tabs on his market.

Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

Jeff Zimmerman — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 16:00:21 +0000

The 10 Most-Chased Pitches of 2020

Ben Palmer — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 16:00:16 +0000

10 pitches that constantly fooled hitters in 2020

The post The 10 Most-Chased Pitches of 2020 appeared first on Pitcher List.

Indians Nearing Deal To Re-Sign Cesar Hernandez

Steve Adams — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 15:03:44 +0000

The Indians are nearing a deal to re-sign free agent second baseman Cesar Hernandez, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. If completed, it’d be a one-year deal with a club option for a second season in 2022. Hernandez, an Octagon client, spent the 2020 season as Cleveland’s primary second baseman after signing a one-year, $6.25MM deal last winter.

More to come.

Phillies, Bryan Mitchell Agree To Minor League Deal

Steve Adams — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 14:13:47 +0000

The Phillies have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent righty Bryan Mitchell, reports Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll presumably be invited to big league Spring Training.

Mitchell, 29, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since a disappointing stint with the Padres in 2018. The Friars effectively purchased Mitchell from the Yankees, agreeing to take on the remainder of Chase Headley’s four-year contract in order to land four years of control over Mitchell. The hope was that Mitchell could function as a viable fourth starter in San Diego, but he was hammered for a 5.42 ERA and an even uglier 5.89 SIERA with more walks (43) than strikeouts (38) in 73 innings of work. Headley, meanwhile, was released in mid-May after 60 plate appearances.

In 2019, Mitchell was dropped from the Padres’ 40-man roster prior to Opening Day. He didn’t fare well in Triple-A that year either, allowing more than a run per inning over 44 frames. Prior to that implosion in 2018-19, however, Mitchell had showed some promise. He carried a 3.18 ERA in just shy of 200 innings at the Triple-A level and had some decent big league outings, albeit without consistency (4.94 ERA through his first 98 1/3 MLB frames).

Mitchell latched on with the White Sox for the 2020 season but didn’t earn a promotion from their alternate site prior to being released in late August. Overall, he carries a 5.15 ERA and a nearly identical 5.20 SIERA in 171 1/3 big league innings. Mitchell doesn’t miss bats (13 percent strikeout rate) but does carry a 50 percent ground-ball rate. Philadelphia skipper Joe Girardi surely knows Mitchell well after managing him for parts of four seasons with the Yankees, which surely played a part in this match.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has spoken recently of bringing in some veteran rotation depth on non-roster deals, and Mitchell gives them one such player. It’s certainly possible that further additions along these lines will be made in the weeks to come as more experienced starters ultimately settle for lesser deals with Spring Training looming.

Fantasy Breakdown: San Diego Padres for 2021

Samuel In — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 14:00:28 +0000

A preview of San Diego Padres' lineup, rotation, and bullpen for 2021.

The post Fantasy Breakdown: San Diego Padres for 2021 appeared first on Pitcher List.

Cincinnati Reds’ 2021 Preseason Top 50 Prospects

Vincent Ginardi — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 13:30:14 +0000

Vincent ranks the Top 50 prospects for the Cincinnati Reds.

The post Cincinnati Reds’ 2021 Preseason Top 50 Prospects appeared first on Pitcher List.

2020 Pod vs Steamer — HR Downside, A Review

Mike Podhorzer — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 13:15:19 +0000

Yesterday, I reviewed my home run upside list, where I compared my Pod Projections to Steamer using AB/HR rate. Today, let’s now review my home run downside list.

HR Downside

Player	Pod AB/HR	Steamer AB/HR	Pod HR – 600 AB	Steamer HR – 600 AB	Diff	Actual AB/HR	Actual HR – 600 AB	Winner
Giancarlo Stanton	14.1	10.9	43	55	-12	19.0	32	Pod
Jedd Gyorko	25.4	18.6	24	32	-9	13.0	46	Steamer
Joc Pederson	17.2	14.0	35	43	-8	17.3	35	Pod
Andrew McCutchen	24.1	18.6	25	32	-7	21.7	28	Pod
Bryce Harper	15.5	13.3	39	45	-7	14.6	41	Pod
Travis Demeritte	37.6	27.3	16	22	-6	0.0	0.0	Pod
Chris Davis	22.9	18.9	26	32	-6	0.0	0.0	Pod
David Peralta	31.9	24.7	19	24	-5	40.6	15	Pod
Roberto Perez	27.6	22.3	22	27	-5	97.0	6	Pod
Miguel Cabrera	34.8	26.8	17	22	-5	20.4	29	Steamer
Khris Davis	16.3	14.3	37	42	-5	42.5	14	Pod
Manny Machado	18.3	16.0	33	38	-5	14.0	43	Steamer
Gleyber Torres	18.0	15.8	33	38	-5	45.3	13	Pod
Yasiel Puig	22.8	19.4	26	31	-5	—	—	—
Austin Hedges	26.8	22.2	22	27	-5	23.0	26	Steamer
Eloy Jimenez	18.8	16.4	32	37	-5	15.2	39	Steamer
Daniel Murphy	30.9	25.1	19	24	-5	41.0	15	Pod
J.D. Martinez	16.4	14.6	37	41	-5	30.1	20	Pod

Wow, if yesterday’s 6-9 loss to Steamer was no fun, then I made up for it with a convincing 12-5 record on the downsiders. Like on the upside list, the sample sizes here are pathetic, with six hitters accruing less than 100 at-bats, and one failing to play at all, which obviously was excluded from my W/L record.

Even with a 30.8% HR/FB rate, the third highest of his career, Giancarlo Stanton still came up far short of both of our forecasts. And holy guacamole, check out that Steamer 600 AB HR forecast…55?!!? Stanton also cut his strikeout rate, so it’s shocking he was only on a 32 home run pace. There’s a clear reason though — his FB% slipped below 30% for the first time ever, tumbling all the way to just 26.5% from his previous low in 2019 of 33.3%. Obviously, fewer fly balls is going to result in fewer homers, all else being equal. Stanton’s health remains a complete crapshoot, so whether he’s a reasonable buy or not will depend entirely on his price.

I think Steamer is consistently higher on Bryce Harper than I am as well (Stanton too), but Harper actually finished right in between our two forecasts, slightly closer to mine. It was a pretty interesting season for him though as he cut his strikeout rate to a career low, while boosting his fly ball rate to a career high. Normally, that would lead to a career best AB/HR mark, but his HR/FB rate fell below 20% for the first time since 2016. If he can maintain the strikeout rate and FB% improvements while enjoying a HR/FB rate rebound toward his 2017-2019 marks, he could have himself his first 40-homer season if health cooperates.

Seriously, what happened to Chris Davis?

I’ve been beeting on David Peralta’s 2018 HR/FB rate being the fluke and he’s done nothing since to convince me otherwise. Projection systems are still weighting that year, resulting in too-high home run forecasts.

Miguel Cabrera made Steamer’s optimism look justified! Was it a last hurrah over a small sample? His HR/FB rate surged to its highest mark since 2016, so perhaps he’s just been healthier than he has in recent years. Who knows what we’ll get this year, but I’m not too excited to bet on a 38-year-old.

So much for buying Khris Davis on a rebound off his disappointing 2019! Davis’ FB% did rebound back over 40%, which was one of the keys, but not only did his HR/FB rate not bounce back into the 20% range, it went into freefall, dropping into the high single digits. Of course, this all happened in just 85 at-bats, but it’s costing him significant playing time. Roster Resource still shows him as the starting DH for the Athletics, but that’s not going to continue unless Davis’ power rebounds.

Steamer nailed the progression for Manny Machado, as they were forecasting a career best ISO, and he actually delivered. He bumped up his HR/FB rate to 20%+ for the first time, after remaining amazingly consistent since 2014. He also combined that with a rebound in strikeout rate to set a new career best. At age 28, this could very well a new level for him, and it’s not such an outrageous level to think it can’t be sustained.

I felt Gleyber Torres was massively overvalued in fantasy drafts, so I wasn’t surprised to find his name on my home run downside list. I certainly didn’t expect this, but at least my pessimism was enough to steer readers away from him at his cost. Despite the disappointing year, there were lots of positives, including career best walk and strikeout rates. He should now come at a more reasonable price, meaning it’s now possible he ends up joining one of my teams.

I tend to remain conservative on young future stars, especially when their baseline is already so high. So it’s no surprise I missed on Eloy Jimenez as it’s tough not to expect regression off a 27.2% HR/FB rate during his rookie season. The scary thing is he’s doing all this with a low FB% and his mark was sub-30% in 2020. It’s still hard to believe he can maintain this high of a HR/FB rate, but anything he loses could possibly be made up from an increased fly ball rate.

I factored in J.D. Martinez’s back issues as a reason why he wouldn’t fully rebound from his 2019 performance that was down from his 2017-2018 peak. I definitely didn’t expect it to get this bad, but perhaps he had more of an excuse than some others during the COVID season due to lack of video. I’m curious what he’ll be valued at versus my dollar value projection, as he might be a good risk if his cost drops enough.

Outfield ADP Market Report: 1/25/2021

Justin Mason — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 12:15:36 +0000

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Kyle Tucker (+5.39)- It is not surprising to see Tucker moving up the ADP. He is a former top prospect that finally got playing time in Houston. With George Springer and Josh Reddick gone., there isn’t anyone for the Astros to block him. He has huge power and speed upside, so the gamble at the high ADP is worth it.

Top 100 Players Falling

Aaron Judge (-9.94)- The drop in ADP for Judge isn’t surprising or unwarranted. The upside is massive, but he has not been able to stay on the field. That being said, he finished the season healthy. So,

Top 200 Players Rising

Byron Buxton (+11.88)- Talent has never been in question on Buxton and in 2020, he delivered fantasy goodness when he was on the field. He popped 13 homers and swiped two bags, but only managed to play in 39 games for the Twins. Projections have him playing around 130 games and being a 25/20 kind of player and if he played that many games he could be a stud. However, he has only one season in which he played 100+ games and that was in 2017. His great StatCast data is tantalizing, but it comes with a 17.4% swinging strike rate and a 51.2% O-Swing. Buxton is the definition of a boom or bust player, but that is a big risk as a top 125 pick.

Tommy Edman (+18.69)- See the article on shortstops in this series.

Daulton Varsho (+33.16)- See the article on catchers in this series.

Nick Solak (+15.84)- See the article on second basemen in this series.

Victor Reyes (+20.75)- Reyes is emerging as a trendy sleeper due to his speed upside and the fact he seems likely to lead off for the Tigers. He also isn’t completely devoid of power. He could be a 10/15 or 10/20 plater that racks up a bunch of runs and posts an above average batting average. If the price rises too far, it will limit the value.

Leody Taveras (+48.45)- Another trendy sleeper that is rising is Taveras. Like Reyes, he is expected to lead off and has a ton of speed upside. He has more pop in the bat than Reyes, but the average likely won’t be nearly as good. Hopefully he won’t continue to rise too far. He isn’t as safe as Reyes, but the upside is greater.

Top 200 Players Falling

Dominic Smith (-21.36)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Eddie Rosario (-12.13)- Rosario is continuing to slip in large part to him not having signed a deal yet. He should get a starting spot somewhere, so I would expect him to rise after that. As long as he does have an everyday role, he is a pretty safe bet for 25+ homers and some chip-in stolen bases.

Mike Yastrzemski (-12.37)- Yaz had a huge start to the season, posting the third best WAR in the league behind Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts. He didn’t really disappoint in the final month, but it didn’t translate into much more than an empty average profile. He walks a lot and does have a nice hard hit percentage, but it is hard to see a major step forward in the power department or for him to keep the batting average high with an inflated .370 BABIP. I would expect the price to fall some more and it would need to in order for him to be worth drafting.

Clint Frazier (-16.8)- I am a bit surprised that Frazier is dropping in the ADP. It is likely due to concerns about his playing time, but with Giancarlo Stanton no longer playing the outfield and Brett Gardner gone, there is no reason to think that he won’t play everyday and if he gets traded, then he would be guaranteed the plate appearances. He has 30/10 upside and I will take that in most drafts, especially if he continues to drop.

Max Kepler (-14.74)- Kepler’s drop is a bit of a correction in the ADP after his disappointing 2020. He hit nine homers and stole three bases and hit .228/.321/.439 in 48 games. His StatCast data is a bit concerning. His barrel percentage, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage all dropped. However, he did increase his walk rate, kept his strikeout rate at a respectable level and had a fantastic 93.7% Z-contact percentage and his expected BA was .258 which is more in line with what we saw in 2019. I like Kepler to bounce back and if his price keeps dropping, he has a lot of profit potential.

Top 300 Players Rising

Austin Hays (+15.92)- Hays is becoming an extremely trendy sleeper. He definitely has some pop and speed and doesn’t strike out. However, there are concerns. First concern is his StatCast numbers are not good at all. He was in the 20th percentile for exit velocity and his barrel and hard hit percentages are even worse. He also doesn’t have guaranteed playing time right now. There appears to be a battle between DJ Stewart, Ryan Mount castle, Cedric Mullins, and Hays for two spots, so he could find himself in a short sided platoon. On the plus side, I don’t necessarily believe that the Orioles are planning on playing Chris Davis and moving Mountcastle to the outfield. Hays also makes a ton of contact inside in the zone, I just wish he didn’t put the ball on the ground so much. I am not a Hays believer, so I will be fading this rise up the ADP.

Raimel Tapia (+46.01)- Tapia is rising up the ADP in large part because he offers three categories that are the hardest to come by in runs, stolen bases and average. He is expected to lead off for the Rockies and with guys like Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Charlie Blackmon hitting behind him, he should rack up the runs. He is a former top prospect and now that he is a bit older, maybe the Rockies won’t play games with his playing time. His price is still pretty good and he is worth it.

Bryan Reynolds (+29.75)- Reynolds was an absolute disaster in 2020 for the Pirates after breaking out in 2019. He got unlucky in the BABIP department, but that wasn’t the only reason for his poor average as his xBA was .228. The problem is he doesn’t have a ton of power and he doesn’t run much. I understand the rise in ADP as he is projected to play every day, but I am not that interested in a guy that probably doesn’t hit 20 home runs and isn’t going to steal much.

Alex Kirilloff (+44.40)- Kirolloff is rising up the ADP in large part because many people believe he will be up to start the season. I don’t know if I buy that. The Twins are an organization that cares a ton about money and service time. I think he will be a good player once he is up, but I don’t know if his power is game ready yet either. I think the prospect pedigree is pushing him up too much. I am out on him if the price continues to rise.

Scott Kingery (+55.45)- See the article on second basemen in this series.

Mauricio Dubon (+28.47)- See the article on second basemen in this series.

Top 300 Players Falling

Jarred Kelenic (-20.57)- Kelenic is my #1 prospect for dynasty leagues and so I was surprised to see him drop. I think the question is, when will he be up? The Mariners aren’t competing this year and that could mean that Kelenic isn’t up until mid season. However, I think he could be a monster once he is up. In leagues where stashing is a viable strategy, I think he should be going higher, but I understand people not wanting to wait on his arrival.

Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/1/2020-1/25/2021

12/1/2020-1/25/2021

Player

Team

Position(s)

10/1/2020-10/31/2020

11/1/2020-11/30/2020

Change

1.48

Ronald Acuna Jr.

ATL

1.75

1.52

0.04

3.33

Mookie Betts

LAD

2.89

-0.44

4.42

Juan Soto

WAS

4.25

4.63

0.21

6.96

Mike Trout

LAA

5.5

5.41

-1.55

12.21

Christian Yelich

MLW

11.33

-0.88

15.54

Cody Bellinger

LAD

1B, OF

14.52

-1.02

21.06

Bryce Harper

PHI

19.75

20.52

-0.54

27.35

Kyle Tucker

HOU

32.74

5.39

32.58

Luis Robert

CWS

36.25

34.26

1.68

38.73

Whit Merrifield

2B, OF

47.5

42.26

3.53

38.88

Eloy Jimenez

CWS

44.5

40.04

1.16

47.17

Starling Marte

MIA

54.5

50.74

3.57

49.63

Marcell Ozuna

ATL

42.25

-4.63

54.27

Trent Grisham

56.25

58.85

4.58

56.56

George Springer

HOU

60.15

3.59

57.04

Cavan Biggio

TOR

2B, 3B, OF

55.41

-1.63

58.5

Randy Arozarena

56.19

-2.31

63.83

Aaron Judge

NYY

51.25

53.89

-9.94

72.5

Brandon Lowe

2B, OF

70.78

-1.72

74.58

Teoscar Hernandez

TOR

71.75

66.63

-7.95

79.98

Michael Conforto

NYM

79.52

-0.46

81.46

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

TOR

100.5

92.26

10.8

89.02

Nick Castellanos

CIN

79.75

83.44

-5.58

94.44

Jeff McNeil

NYM

2B, 3B, OF

109.25

97.7

3.26

94.79

Austin Meadows

89.25

88.93

-5.86

101.29

Charlie Blackmon

COL

91.75

93.67

-7.62

108.79

Byron Buxton

MIN

132.25

120.67

11.88

109.17

Dominic Smith

NYM

1B, OF

87.81

-21.36

110.1

Dylan Moore

SEA

2B, OF

136

113.11

3.01

117.29

Tommy Pham

109.75

117.04

-0.25

124.35

Alex Verdugo

BOS

129.25

125.96

1.61

124.94

Eddie Rosario

MIN

122.25

112.81

-12.13

126.35

Tommy Edman

STL

2B, 3B, SS, OF

133.75

145.04

18.69

132.17

Dylan Carlson

STL

143.75

141.56

9.39

133.67

Kyle Lewis

SEA

108.75

106.26

-27.41

135

2021 Oakland As Top 15 Prospects first appeared on .

Top 20 3rd Basemen for 2021 Fantasy Baseball

Grey — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 08:00:39 +0000

The top 20 3rd basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball burn hot and flame out super fast, then find themselves a little flicker to help them read while wearing their stocking cap, then that extinguishes with a cold wind blowing through that smells of garbage. This will hopefully make some sense after you read the next 4,000 words. I should put Easter eggs in these rankings posts to see who is actually reading the whole thing. There will be a quiz at the end, and a sample question is, "Who uses a Lady Bic razor?" Don't you dare do a "Find." Here’s Steamer’s 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2021 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball:

Masahiro Tanaka In Negotiations To Return To Rakuten Eagles

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 04:57:08 +0000

Masahiro Tanaka and the Rakuten Eagles are in the “late stages of negotiations,” writes Pete Caldera of NorthJersey.com. An offer does not appear to be made yet, but a report from Sankei Sports suggests Tanaka is close to returning to the Nippon Professional League. Tanaka does not appear to have closed off the possibility of returning to MLB entirely, but opportunities to woo the right-hander may be dwindling. Tanaka played for the Eagles from 2007 to 2013. Caldera notes that Tanaka’s camp could receive the official offer from the Eagles sometime this week.

Tanaka’s stay in New York was an unmitigated success. Over seven years, he posted a 3.74 ERA/3.91 ERA with a 47.5 percent groundball rate, 23.1 percent strikeout rate, and 4.8 percent walk rate over 1,054 1/3 innings. He made two All-Stars teams and had been nails in the postseason before two rough playoff starts in 2020. Many assumed that he would just return to the Yankees this winter, but New York has thus far moved in a different direction with the additions of Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon. Meanwhile, there has been very little buzz regarding a return to pinstripes for Tanaka.

That said, if Tanaka desires to stay in the States, he should have no trouble finding a home. The 32-year-old’s track record makes him one of the top starters left on the market. Our free agent predictions had Tanaka as the No. 10 free agent on the market – the top starting option remaining after NL Cy Young Trevor Bauer. Teams have been slow to dole out money this winter, however, which could certainly play a role in Tanaka looking elsewhere for a place to pitch in 2021.

Quick Hits: Dodgers, Blue Jays, Turner, Nationals, MASN, Mets, Minaya

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 04:02:55 +0000

Justin Turner has four options on the table that would place him on a contender, with the Dodgers and Blue Jays two of the four, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Still, Heyman notes, the Dodgers are confident they will be able to bring Turner back to Chavez Ravine. The hold-up continues to be the length of the deal, as Los Angeles would like him on a two-year pact, while the 36-year-old continues to seek four years. Speculatively speaking, looking for other potential landing spots leads naturally to the NL East, where any of the Braves, Nationals, Mets, or Marlins could theoretically find room for Turner. Elsewhere…

The Nationals responded today with a statement to recent cuts made by the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. The Nats’ years-long headache over MASN – the local sports network co-owned by the Nationals and Orioles, but controlled by the Orioles – took another turn this week as on-air personalities Dan Kolko, Bo Porter, and Alex Chappell were let go without prior notice being given to the Nationals, per Ben Strauss and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. In the Nationals’ statement, provided by the Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli (via Twitter), they wrote, “…To say that we are incredibly disappointed and upset by MASN’s decisions would be a gross understatement. To be clear – these decisions were made by MASN and against our wishes…” Porter, of course, was a coach with the Nationals from 2011 to 2012 and later managed the Astros for the 2013 and 2014 seasons.
Omar Minaya will accept an ambassadorship with the Mets with plans to be a public presence for the organization, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). Minaya’s relationship with the Mets dates back to childhood, but his professional career began to draw notice during his time as an assistant general manager from 1998 to 2001. He became the Mets’ general manager from 2004 until 2010, when he was succeeded by Sandy Alderson. After four years with the Padres and some time working for MLBPA, Minaya returned to serve as one of Alderson’s lieutenants in 2017. He stayed on with the team through the Brodie Van Wagenen era, but he was let go as part of the housecleaning under the new ownership of Steve Cohen. Minaya now returns for his fourth stint with the team. It does not sound as if Minaya will have any impact on baseball operations.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/25/21

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 02:37:19 +0000

Let’s check in on the latest minor moves from around the game …

The Astros signed Houston native C.J. Hinojosa to a minor league deal, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). Hinojosa was actually drafted by the Astros in the 26th round of the 2012 draft, but instead chose to attend the University of Texas at Austin where he starred as a sophomore in the College World Series. After a disappointing junior season, he was then made an 11th round draft choice by the Giants in 2015. A versatile defender who can play all over the infield, he was ranked among the Giants’ top-30 prospects by Baseball America in both 2017 and 2018. Prior to the 2018 season, BA wrote, “He’s best when he’s spraying the ball around the field, and is especially pesky at poking line drives down the right-field line, but he has a lot of fringe-average to average tools and no real plus tool on his scouting report. He plays shortstop plausibly enough defensively to fill-in, but he lacks the range to play there everyday. Hinojosa missed the start of the 2017 season with a quad strain, but when he returned he went right back to looking like a future big league utility infielder.” He tore his Achilles during the 2017 season, but eventually returned to Double-A during the 2018 season where he slashed .261/.327/.360 across 283 plate appearances. The 26-year-old played independent ball in 2020.

Shortstop Notes: Simmons, Story, Polanco

TC Zencka — Tue, 26 Jan 2021 01:04:59 +0000

The Phillies, Reds, and Jays (among others) are those taking a look at Andrelton Simmons, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Phillies and Reds are natural fits for the former Angel, given their openings at shortstop. The Blue Jays have notably explored many avenues for improvement. In the case of Simmons, it would mean raising their defensive efficiency in the infield, presumably by installing Simmons at short and letting Bo Bichette slide to third, where he would no doubt be a plus defender. At present, it would be surprising if the Phillies and Reds aren’t able to nab a shortstop apiece from the group of Simmons, Marcus Semien, and Didi Gregorius, given their clear need compared to other teams around the league. Considering the group of shortstops that could become free agents next year, teams could be trying to limit their long-term commitments at the position, though that’s not as likely as negotiations simply hanging up because of total dollars as teams hunt value deals.

Speaking of free agents to be, the Rockies’ Trevor Story may be the one of the bunch most likely to hit free agency next summer. At present, Colorado remains unmoved in their position to neither trade nor extend their star shortstop, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). At times this winter, they have been open to the idea of moving Story, but the most likely outcome still appears to be Story playing out the 2021 season in Coors Field and then hitting the open market.
The Twins may be one of the mystery teams taking a look at Simmons. When asked by Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (video link) if Jorge Polanco would be their opening day shortstop, Twins GM Thad Levin said, “I think we look at our team and say Byron Buxton’s our opening day centerfielder, and Josh Donaldson’s our opening day third baseman – almost everyone else on our team has defensive flexibility. We view that as a huge boon to our team.” Wolfson notes that the Twins know the asking prices for free agent shortstops Simmons and Marcus Semien are keeping an eye on it.
To be clear, Levine in no way implied that Polanco would not be a big part of their team in 2021, only that they consider the defensive malleability of the current roster as one of their advantages – both in the market and on the ball field. By DRS, OAA, and UZR, Polanco has measured as a subpar defender at shortstop throughout his career, and the Twins may see value in moving him to second in order to upgrade the infield defense on the whole. More broadly, the Twins appear keen on making the “best” free agent deal they can find, regardless of position. If flexibility really is central to the Twins’ philosophy, that could help explain any reticence they might have about locking Nelson Cruz into the designated hitter spot . That said, it’s hard to imagine finding any player better at their position than Cruz was as their DH the last two seasons (163 wRC+).

Astros Re-Sign Michael Brantley

Connor Byrne — Mon, 25 Jan 2021 23:35:55 +0000

JAN 25: The Astros have announced the deal, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter).

JAN 21: The Astros have reached a two-year, $32MM agreement with free-agent outfielder Michael Brantley, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports. Brantley is a client of Excel Sports Management. It’s a done deal, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

That Brantley is returning to Houston is stunning, as just hours ago it appeared he would join friend and former Astros outfielder George Springer in Toronto. However, in the wake of reports suggesting Brantley would head north, a Toronto official shot down the notion that the club had a deal with him. The Blue Jays did indeed have interest in the 33-year-old Brantley, but they couldn’t close the deal for reasons that aren’t yet known. As a result, it appears Brantley will spend a third consecutive season with the Astros.

This is the second straight two-year, $32MM contract Brantley, formerly with Cleveland, has inked with Houston. The previous deal worked out for both sides, as Brantley earned his fourth All-Star nod in 2019 and has combined for a stellar .309/.370/.497 line with 27 home runs over 824 plate appearances during his run with the Astros. Thanks to his continued success, MLBTR ranked Brantley as the game’s 13th-best free agent at the beginning of the offseason and predicted he would land a two-year, $28MM pact.

With Brantley staying in Houston, the team has addressed a key need in its outfield, where it opened the offseason with major questions. The Astros were at risk of losing all of Brantley, Springer and Josh Reddick on the open market (Reddick is still a free agent). Now, though, they have two corner spots spoken for with Brantley and Kyle Tucker. It’s not yet clear who will replace Springer in center, and it’s certainly worth noting that Brantley may not be an optimal solution as an everyday outfielder anymore. Brantley has dealt with serious injuries in the past, and he missed time last year with a quad issue. When healthy, Brantley appeared in left field in just 19 of 46 games, spending the rest of his season at designated hitter. That spot won’t be available to Brantley on a regular basis in 2021 if offensive standout Yordan Alvarez returns to health after undergoing surgeries on both knees last August.

Losing out on Brantley may be a significant disappointment for the Blue Jays, but they’re not devoid of talent in the outfield and at DH. Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk give the team a strong outfield quartet on paper, though adding Brantley obviously would have made the Jays even more formidable after they earned a playoff berth in 2020.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Patreon Podcast: Perfect and Unique

B_Don — Mon, 25 Jan 2021 23:00:52 +0000

Razzball Patreon members receive our weekly podcast where Grey cackles about the funniest news stories we’ve found over the past week, plus you get that warm fuzzy feeling of supporting your favorite fantasy sports site in all the land. Grey Albright and Billy Hurley are back for another podcast episode! B_Don is still filling in for Donkey Teeth as the guys go through the best of the not, not news. The trio could have spent the whole hour on the first story about a dinosaur's butthole that was found and opens up new insights into dinosaur anatomy. Next up, a British couple recently had one of Gweneth Paltrow's vagina candles erupt in their house. On to the next story, a British man was found 100 miles from his home while violating COVID quarantine rules and his excuse was that he was trying to get to a McDonald's, but there was no McDonald's in that town. While that story was about violating COVID, Tom Cruise has paid for 2 COVID patrolling robots to monitor the social distancing and mask wearing on set of the 69th Mission Impossible movie. Robot voice Grey and Billy do not disappoint. I wonder if Tom Cruise is a smooshy face cat? His lack of range would make sense given the next story about how these 'smooshy' faced cats are having trouble showing their emotions. We wrap up with a story about Ben & Jerry's branching off to make ice cream treats for the doggos out there.

Red Sox Notes: Ottavino, Luxury Tax, Bradley Jr.

TC Zencka — Mon, 25 Jan 2021 22:51:18 +0000

Red Sox’ Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom addressed a number of questions about the offseason moves they have (and haven’t) made so far this winter, per the reporters present, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, and the Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. The call was prompted by the club’s recent (and rare) transaction with their chief rival. Bloom noted that they looked “under the hood” at Adam Ottavino’s 2020 numbers and believe the assumption of his poor performance in 2020 may be misguided. In particular, he notes one particularly poor outing against the Blue Jays in which he surrendered six earned runs without recording an out. Take out that September 7th appearance, and Ottavino’s ERA drops from 5.89 to 2.95. Of course, that outing did happen. Even so, there’s a positive read in Ottavino’s 2020 stat line: 3.52 FIP, 3.62 SIERA, 29.4 percent strikeout rate, and 10.6 percent walk rate suggest the right-hander was close to the same guy he ’d been in 2019, when he formed an important part of the Yankees’ bullpen. Ottavino figures to play a heavy role in the back-end of Boston’s bullpen, though the dispersal of responsibilities between Ottavino and incumbent closer Matt Barnes is TBD. More from Bloom…

The Yankees moved Ottavino to trim enough salary to duck the $210MM luxury tax line, but according to Bloom, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the Red Sox will do the same. With Ottavino in the fold, the Red Sox luxury tax payroll appears to be around $206MM, which certainly doesn’t leave very much room to spare. While the plan is to avoid the tax, that’s not a firm mandate, Bloom notes.
Even taking Bloom at his word, it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox going over the luxury tax when so many teams these days work so diligently to avoid it – especially in a season where the Red Sox are largely projected to be an afterthought to the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays in the AL East. The Red Sox aren’t probably quite as quick to write off their 2021 season, of course. Still, it’s fair to wonder if they have the funds remaining to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. The team remains in contact with Bradley, however, and plans to do so “until his free agency resolves.” Though your read may differ, Bloom’s passive word choice doesn’t project the picture of an aggressive forthcoming attempt to woo Bradley back to Fenway, despite his point here being that a reunion remains possible.

Quality Start Leagues

Michael Simione — Mon, 25 Jan 2021 22:14:31 +0000

With the recognition now of how wins is a terrible statistic for starting pitchers a lot of leagues have moved to quality starts. Wins for a pitcher has very little to do with their ability. Sure they can put themselves in a position for a win but they are then reliant on both their offense and bullpen to achieve that win. Just take a look at Jacob deGrom (you can probably hear me sigh from wherever you are reading this). Quality starts is something that is more so based on a pitcher’s performance alone. It’s simple, pitch at least six innings with no more than three earned runs and you earn a quality start. Let’s glance at the quality start leaders from last season.

Quality Start Leaders

Rank	Player	QS	ERA
1	Lance Lynn	10	3.32
2	Yu Darvish	10	2.01
3	Shane Bieber	10	1.63
4	Carlos Carrasco	9	2.91
5	Trevor Bauer	9	1.73
6	Kyle Hendricks	9	2.88
7	Kyle Freeland	9	4.33
8	German Marquez	9	3.75
9	Zac Gallen	9	2.75
10	Gerrit Cole	8	2.84
11	Lucas Giolito	8	3.48
12	Jacob deGrom	8	2.38
13	Kenta Maeda	8	2.70
14	Adam Wainwright	7	3.15
15	Zack Wheeler	7	2.92
16	Hyun-Jin Ryu	7	2.69
17	Aaron Nola	7	3.28
18	Luis Castillo	7	3.21
19	Aaron Civale	7	4.74
20	Clayton Kershaw	6	2.16

Of course, some of the best pitchers will have the most quality starts like Yu Darvish, Shane Bieber, and Trevor Bauer. What you might notice are some outliers like German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Aaron Civale. While performance level matters so do team philosophies. Pitchers have a better chance at acquiring a quality start if their respective teams let them pitch deep into games. Whereas if it’s the opposite like the Tampa Bay Rays, it won’t matter how good a pitcher is they likely won’t let them see the sixth inning. Let’s check out team’s quality start percentage (QS%) and their starting pitching ERA.

Team QS%

Rank	Team	Team SP ERA	QS%
1	CLE	3.17	62%
2	CHC	3.77	50%
3	COL	4.83	47%
4	CIN	3.50	43%
5	HOU	4.26	42%
6	SEA	4.41	42%
7	SDP	3.46	37%
8	PHI	4.08	33%
9	CHW	3.85	32%
10	OAK	4.49	32%
11	STL	3.86	31%
12	LAD	3.29	30%
13	NYY	4.24	30%
14	NYM	5.37	29%
15	TEX	5.32	28%
16	MIA	4.31	27%
17	MIN	3.54	27%
18	WSN	5.38	27%
19	LAA	5.52	25%
20	MIL	4.18	25%
21	ARI	5.04	22%
22	ATL	5.51	22%
23	KCR	4.70	18%
24	SFG	4.99	18%
25	TOR	4.55	18%
26	BAL	5.09	17%
27	DET	6.37	16%
28	BOS	5.34	15%
29	PIT	4.74	15%
30	TBR	3.77	12%

The Indians are way above everyone else and while that can be because of their stellar pitching staff they still let pitchers go deep into games no matter what. Aaron Civale popped up on the first list with a 4.74 ERA seeming like an outlier but that’s because the Indians love for their starters to accumulate innings. You can see a few outliers from the chart above, one is the Colorado Rockies.

Last season they actually let their starters pitch deep into games and while you have to battle the home/away splits they technically could be more valuable in this format. Another outlier is the Seattle Mariners. Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justus Sheffield all were top 45 in pitches per game. Unfortunately, the Mariners roll with a six-man rotation but you shouldn’t still discount them because it’s for that reason they are able to let their starters pitch deeper in their starts. Moving on to the major outlier which doesn’t surprise anyone is the Tampa Bay Rays. With one of the better ERA’s in the league they only produced a quality start in 12% of their games.

To quickly recap, in quality start leagues you should move up starting pitchers who pitch for the Indians, Rockies, Cubs, Astros, and Mariners (slightly). Move down any starter who plays for the Rays.

As for individual performance here were your 2020 innings pitched per game leaders.

Innings Pitched Per Game Leaders

Rank	Name	Age	Team	IP/Game
1	Zach Plesac	25	CLE	6.9
2	Kyle Hendricks	30	CHC	6.8
3	Trevor Bauer	29	CIN	6.6
4	Adam Wainwright	38	STL	6.6
5	Lance Lynn	33	TEX	6.5
6	Zack Wheeler	30	PHI	6.5
7	Shane Bieber	25	CLE	6.4
8	Framber Valdez	26	HOU	6.4
9	Yu Darvish	33	CHC	6.3
10	Marco Gonzales	28	SEA	6.3
11	German Marquez	25	COL	6.3
12	Aaron Civale	25	CLE	6.2
13	Gerrit Cole	29	NYY	6.1
14	Brad Keller	24	KCR	6.1
15	Kenta Maeda	32	MIN	6.1
16	Antonio Senzatela	25	COL	6.1
17	Sandy Alcantara	24	MIA	6
18	Dylan Bundy	27	LAA	6
19	Patrick Corbin	30	WSN	6
20	Zac Gallen	24	ARI	6
21	Lucas Giolito	25	CHW	6
22	Aaron Nola	27	PHI	5.9
23	Luis Castillo	27	CIN	5.8
24	Zach Davies	27	SDP	5.8
25	Clayton Kershaw	32	LAD	5.8
26	Dallas Keuchel	32	CHW	5.8
27	Dinelson Lamet	27	SDP	5.8
28	Chris Bassitt	31	OAK	5.7
29	Carlos Carrasco	33	CLE	5.7
30	Jacob deGrom	32	NYM	5.7
31	Alec Mills	28	CHC	5.7
32	Brandon Woodruff	27	MIL	5.7
33	Zach Eflin	26	PHI	5.6
34	Kyle Gibson	32	TEX	5.6
35	Zack Greinke	36	HOU	5.6
36	Andrew Heaney	29	LAA	5.6
37	Hyun Jin Ryu	33	TOR	5.6
38	Sixto Sanchez	21	MIA	5.6
39	Max Scherzer	35	WSN	5.6
40	Kevin Gausman	29	SFG	5.5
41	J.A. Happ	37	NYY	5.5
42	Jesus Luzardo	22	OAK	5.5
43	Justus Sheffield	24	SEA	5.5
44	Nathan Eovaldi	30	BOS	5.4
45	Mike Fiers	35	OAK	5.4
46	Kyle Freeland	27	COL	5.4
47	Kwang Hyun Kim	31	STL	5.4
48	Brady Singer	23	KCR	5.4
49	Jose Berrios	26	MIN	5.3
50	Johnny Cueto	34	SFG	5.3

So here we are, and thus proving our previous short recap, you see four Indians pitchers in the top 30. Out of all of the Indians pitchers, one who sticks out is Zach Plesac. He lead the league in innings pitched per game while also being 11th overall in pitches per game. He actually didn’t have a single start where he didn’t reach six innings. I quickly want to note Aaron Civale as well because even though he didn’t have a solid ERA he still was 12th on this list and was actually 7th in pitches per game last season. He is not only being extremely undervalued in quality start formats but all formats as well.

We also see the Rockies starters on this list with German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, and Kyle Freeland. Both Senzatela and Marquez are top 25 in pitches per game and seem like decent values for this format. Keep in mind skill of course matters as well but finding people like Senzatela late in drafts makes sense because you are chasing upside anyway.

Some interesting late round shots you might want to take would be with the Royals pitching staff. They let their pitchers throw as well but the quality starts haven’t come due to the skill set. Their pitchers are young and growth could easily come. Brad Keller was 14th in innings pitched per game and 17th in pitches per start. Kris Bubic was 25th in pitches per start. Brady Singer was 48th in innings per start and 40th in pitches per game.

Yes, a top-end skill set matters most for quality starts leagues, but team tendencies can help you find success. Pitchers like Aaron Civale, German Marquez, and Brad Keller could be overlooked due to their lack of either ERA, ballpark, or strikeout upside. When in fact they bring more value to quality start leagues than we think.

Cactus League Informs MLB Of Desire To Delay Start Of Spring Training

Steve Adams — Mon, 25 Jan 2021 21:55:26 +0000

Less than a month before players are set to report to Spring Training, Arizona’s Cactus League has submitted a formal request to commissioner Rob Manfred asking that the start of Spring Training be delayed due to the Covid-19 infection rate in Maricopa County (Twitter link via Brahm Resnick of 12 News in Arizona). The Cactus League itself does not have the authority to delay the start of Spring Training, but its formal request figures to elicit a response from the commissioner’s office.

“Amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the Cactus League has formed a task force to ensure that our 10 spring training facilities are prepared to host the 2021 spring training season in a manner that is safe for all involved,” executive director Bridget Binsbacher wrote in a letter co-signed by nine other key members of the Cactus League. “We stand ready to work with you on the final preparation and outcome to begin the season. … But in the view of the current state of the pandemic in Maricopa County — with one of the nation’s highest infection rates — we believe it wise to delay the start of spring training to allow for the Covid-19 situation to improve here.”

The county’s appeal, however, doesn’t figure to have an effect on policy unless the players change their position – and on this issue they have been clear. In response to the letter from the Cactus League, the MLBPA released its own statement, reiterating their desire (and insistence) to start on time. “Although we have not received any communication directly, the MLBPA is aware of a letter that has been distributed today by the Cactus League Association,” the letter begins. It goes on to say, “The letter correctly notes that MLB does not have the ability to unilaterally make this decision.”

In negotiating the rules and conditions for the 2021 season, the MLBPA has been staunch in their desire to play a full season, which logistically necessitates a regularly-scheduled spring session under most if not all scenarios under consideration. For there to be any movement on the players’ part, owners and the league would have to account for the money that players would lose by delaying and truncating the season. This may be the players’ greatest point of leverage, and it’s not one they appear willing to compromise without considerable concessions on the league’s part. For what it’s worth, the NHL is currently active in Glendale with fans in the stands, notes Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Glendale was one of the cities to sign the letter sent to the league.

There are basically two scenarios that could result in a delayed Spring Training. The first would be the local health crisis growing dire enough such that health officials mandate restrictions that conflict with the league’s ability to open camps. Considering the already-dire nature of the crisis at present, this isn’t considered a particularly likely outcome. The other possibility is the MLB and the MLBPA deciding together that a delay of camp is the proper course of action.