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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/29/21

Anthony Franco — Tue, 30 Nov 2021 02:50:53 +0000

With the non-tender deadline on the horizon, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2022 season over the next 24 hours, avoiding arbitration in advance. In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections. Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market. Speculatively, such deals could increase this offseason due to a desire among players to avoid the potential uncertainty of a lockout and accompanying transactions freeze after the current collective bargaining agreement expires Wednesday evening.

View projected salaries by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

Today’s Agreements

The Athletics have agreed to deals with utilitymen Chad Pinder and Tony Kemp, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). Pinder will make $2.725MM, while Kemp lands a $2.25MM salary. Pinder, a career-long member of the organization, is headed into his final season of arbitration control. Kemp remains controllable through 2023. Pinder hit .243/.300/.411 in 2021; Kemp’s coming off a very productive .279/.382/.418 showing.
The Pirates announced they’ve agreed to terms with outfielder Ben Gamel. The 29-year-old will receive a $1.8MM guarantee, with the opportunity to earn an additional $200K in incentives based on plate appearance thresholds, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). Gamel is entering his final year of club control, coming off a .247/.347/.388 showing over 400 plate appearances between Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
The Nationals announced agreement with outfielder Andrew Stevenson. He’ll receive an $850K salary, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (on Twitter). The 27-year-old qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player and will remain under club control through 2025 so long as he sticks on the 40-man roster. He hit .229/.294/.339 with five homers over 213 plate appearances this past season.

Marlins Attempting To Trade Jorge Alfaro

Anthony Franco — Tue, 30 Nov 2021 02:01:32 +0000

The Marlins are hoping to find a trade partner for catcher Jorge Alfaro before tomorrow evening’s non-tender deadline, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (on Twitter). The Padres are among the teams expressing interest in the 28-year-old backstop, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter).

That Alfaro is on the trade block is hardly a shock. He’s long been mentioned as a potential non-tender candidate, and Miami landed Jacob Stallings from the Pirates this afternoon to supplant him behind the dish. It’d register as a surprise if Alfaro were still on the Marlins’ roster 24 hours from now, as he seems likely to be non-tendered if not traded.

With Alfaro likely to otherwise be cut loose for nothing, it makes sense for general manager Kim Ng and her staff to see if they can bring back anything of value. The right-handed hitting backstop is a former top prospect who has flashed an intriguing blend of power and arm strength at times, but his combination of huge strikeout totals and well below-average walk rates have yet kept him from settling in as an above-average regular.

As Morosi notes, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a key figure in the Rangers’ scouting department when Texas signed Alfaro as an amateur out of Colombia back in 2010. Preller has shown an affinity for bringing in former Rangers, but Alfaro would be a bit of a curious fit on paper. San Diego already has a capable #1 catcher in Austin Nola, and Víctor Caratini is on hand as a serviceable back-up. Top prospect Luis Campusano, meanwhile, has already appeared in the majors and is coming off a strong season with Triple-A El Paso.

Were the Padres or anyone else to swing a trade for Alfaro, they’d be able to control him through the end of 2023 via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to bring in a 2022 salary in the $2.7MM range if tendered a contract.

Brewers To Sign Brett Sullivan To Major League Deal

Anthony Franco — Tue, 30 Nov 2021 01:44:45 +0000

The Brewers are signing catcher/corner outfielder Brett Sullivan to a major league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). Sullivan, who has yet to appear in the major leagues, became a minor league free agent earlier this month after seven seasons in the Rays’ farm system. The Brewers’ 40-man roster now sits at 38.

Sullivan was selected by Tampa Bay in the 17th-round of the 2015 draft coming out of the University of the Pacific. He’s never appeared on an organizational prospects ranking at either FanGraphs or Baseball America, but the left-handed hitter has typically performed well in the minor leagues. Sullivan posted above-average offensive numbers up through Double-A, very rarely striking out. He’s not drawn many walks or hit for a ton of power, but Sullivan’s ability to put the ball in play allowed him to consistently run high batting averages before 2021.

This past season was a bit of a struggle, as Sullivan sputtered to a .223/.302/.375 line with nine home runs over 345 plate appearances with the Rays’ top affiliate in Durham. Those numbers were depressed by a career-low .244 batting average on balls in play, though. Sullivan only punched out in 15.7% of his Triple-A plate appearances. That mark, while the highest rate of his career, is around seven percentage points lower than the big league average.

Sullivan becomes the third catcher on the 40-man roster, joining starter Omar Narváez and prospect Mario Feliciano. Longtime Brewer Manny Piña departed to join the Braves a few weeks ago. It’s possible Milwaukee continues to hunt for a more experienced backup, but Sullivan has an opportunity to factor into that mix. (It stands to reason the Crew would prefer to get Feliciano everyday reps at Triple-A Nashville as opposed to having him play sporadically in the majors behind Narváez). Sullivan has all three minor league option years remaining, so the Brewers can shuttle him on and off the active roster for the extended future so long as he holds onto a 40-man spot.

Giants Finalizing Agreement With Alex Cobb

Anthony Franco — Tue, 30 Nov 2021 01:22:04 +0000

The Giants are finalizing agreement with free agent starter Alex Cobb, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the club was making a strong run at the right-hander last week. Cobb is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Cobb spent the 2021 campaign in Orange County, after the Angels acquired him from the Orioles last winter. It was an eyebrow-raising move at the time, since Cobb had struggled with both injuries and underperformance over his three seasons in Baltimore. The ten-year big league veteran rewarded the organization’s faith, though, tossing 93 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA/3.83 SIERA ball across 18 starts.

Along the way, Cobb generated more whiffs than he ever had before. His 11.2% swinging strike rate and 24.9% strikeout percentage were both career-best marks, each checking in a touch above the respective league averages for starting pitchers. Cobb paired that uptick in whiffs with his typically robust ground-ball tendencies (53.3%) and solid control (8.4% walk rate) en route to a nice season.

Cobb’s run prevention numbers were partially propped up by one of the league’s lowest home run rates (0.48 per nine innings). It’s unlikely he’ll continue to be quite that successful keeping the ball in the yard moving forward. But Cobb’s blend of average or better whiffs, control and grounders should allow him to be a solid back-of-the-rotation option even if his homer rate regresses. The bigger concern might lie in his health, as he had separate injured list stints this past season due to blisters and right wrist inflammation. Cobb didn’t seem any worse for wear after returning from his time on the IL, though, with the velocity on all of his offerings remaining intact during his final few outings of the year.

The Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. Only Logan Webb remained under club control from the team’s primary five this past season. They’ve already re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and reportedly were nearing agreement to bring Alex Wood back. Kevin Gausman’s departure to the Blue Jays leaves one prominent vacancy, though, and teams often have to rely on seven or eight starters to navigate the injury attrition of a full season.

There’d be room for further additions to the rotation even if Cobb’s deal does get across the finish line, and there should be plenty of spending capacity with which to do so. Terms of Cobb’s potential agreement aren’t yet known, but MLBTR forecasted him for a two-year, $16MM deal entering the offseason. The Giants only have a little more than $105MM in estimated 2022 commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. For a franchise that has logged player payrolls in the $200MM range in the past, a fairly modest Cobb signing shouldn’t be especially prohibitive to the club’s future goals.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Nearing Agreement With Daniel Hudson

Anthony Franco — Tue, 30 Nov 2021 00:50:13 +0000

The Dodgers are nearing agreement on a one-year contract with free agent reliever Daniel Hudson, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). It’s expected to be worth around $7MM once finalized, per Passan. Hudson is a client of Jet Sports Management.

Were the deal to be finalized, it’d be Hudson’s second stint in Dodger blue. The right-hander also spent the 2018 season with Los Angeles, tossing 46 innings of 4.11 ERA ball out of the bullpen. He’s been far better in two of the past three years, though, again attracting the attention of the Dodgers’ front office.

Hudson split the 2019 campaign between the Blue Jays and Nationals, combining for 73 frames with a 2.47 ERA. That didn’t come with nearly as impressive peripherals, but the Nats saw enough to re-sign the Virginia native to a two-year deal. Hudson didn’t pitch well during the shortened 2020 campaign, struggling with both walks and home runs en route to a 6.10 ERA.

The veteran hurler turned things around in 2021, getting off to a sterling start. Hudson made 32 appearances with Washington over the season’s first few months, pitching to a minuscule 2.20 ERA with an elite 37.8% strikeout rate and a tiny 5.5% walk percentage. That made him a desirable trade chip, and the Padres landed him a few days before the deadline.

Hudson didn’t sustain that level of success with San Diego down the stretch. He allowed 13 runs (11 earned) in 19 innings with the Friars, nearly doubling his first-half walk rate. The 34-year-old continued to miss plenty of bats, though, and it seems the Dodgers are betting that kind of swing-and-miss stuff will allow him to find more success keeping runs off the board than he did with San Diego.

Altogether, Hudson tossed 51 2/3 innings with a 3.31 ERA in 2021. His 35.7% strikeout rate and 15.7% swinging strike rate were each career-best marks, while his 97 MPH average fastball velocity tied a personal-high. There’s a chance Hudson’s high-octane arsenal allows him to thrive as a late-game option for manager Dave Roberts, although it’s critical that he continue to miss plenty of bats. Hudson’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who gives up quite a bit of hard contact when batters do the ball in play. That’s led to him surrendering 1.7 homers per nine innings pitched over the past two years, a mark that’s a fair bit worse than that of the league average bullpen arm.

Braves Sign Kirby Yates

Anthony Franco — Tue, 30 Nov 2021 00:31:00 +0000

The defending champion Braves have made an addition in the bullpen, announcing a two-year, $8.25MM guarantee for free agent reliever Kirby Yates. The team announced that’ll take the form of a $1MM salary in 2022, a $6MM salary in 2023 and at least a $1.25MM buyout on a 2024 club option valued at $5.75MM. (The Braves are among the teams that publicly disclose contract terms). Yates is a client of Beverley Hills Sports Council.

Yates is coming off a lost season. After signing with the Blue Jays last offseason, he suffered a flexor strain in Spring Training that required Tommy John surgery. That procedure is expected to keep him out until midseason 2022, which explains the contract’s backloaded structure. That came on the heels of a 2020 campaign also wrecked by injury, as he was limited to just 4 1/3 frames with the Padres that season.

Because it’s been a few years since we’ve seen Yates over an extended period, it might be easy to forget how great he was at his best. A late bloomer who bounced around the league on waivers through the first few years of his MLB career, he took his game to a new level upon landing with the Padres in 2017. Over the next three seasons, the right-hander pitched to a combined 2.31 ERA across 179 1/3 innings of relief, striking out a brilliant 38.7% of batters faced while walking just 6.8%. Yates led all of baseball with 41 saves in 2019, a season that also saw him earn an All-Star nod and finish seventh in National League Cy Young award voting.

Yates turns 35 years old next March, so there’d be some risk for Atlanta even independent of his spotty recent health history. But he was utterly dominant the last time he was at full strength, and that ceiling prompted the front office to take a shot on a rebound.

We’ve seen similar deals of this ilk in the past. Tommy Kahnle and Ken Giles signed two-year contracts with the Dodgers and Mariners, respectively, last winter despite both being expected to miss the entirety of the 2021 campaign recovering from TJS. Yates offers the potential to contribute to a playoff push down the stretch next year before logging a hopefully healthy 2023 campaign. The Braves also pick up some additional upside in the form of the 2024 club option, which would look like an abolsute bargain if Yates does manage to return to anything resembling his 2017-19 form.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Braves and Yates were in agreement on a two-year, $8.25MM guarantee with a $5.75MM club option for 2024.

Braves To Sign Kirby Yates

Anthony Franco — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 23:59:00 +0000

Free agent reliever Kirby Yates is signing with the Braves on a two-year, $8.25MM guarantee, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The deal also contains a $5.75MM club option for 2024, per Passan.

More to come.

Marlins Acquire Jacob Stallings From Pirates

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 23:45:17 +0000

The Marlins have announced the acquisition of Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. In exchange, Pittsburgh acquires righty Zach Thompson in addition to right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Nicolas and outfield prospect Connor Scott. Miami was connected to Stallings earlier this morning.

The 31-year-old Stallings (32 next month) will come to the Marlins with three years of club control remaining and give the Fish a standout defensive catcher to pair with their burgeoning young pitching staff. While his offensive numbers don’t stand out — Stallings has batted .251/.331/.374 with 17 homers, 32 doubles and a triple in 780 plate appearances dating back to 2019 — the 2021 Gold Glover is one of the best defensive players in the sport, regardless of position.

Over the past three seasons, Stallings has racked up 42 Defensive Runs Saved, including 21 DRS this past season. He notched an imposing 36.2% caught-stealing rate from 2019-20 and has a career 27% mark, though it’s worth noting that he slipped to 21% in that department this past season. Each of Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and Statcast peg Stallings as an above-average pitch framer, and Prospectus credits his ability to block pitches in the dirt as plus as well.

Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $2.6MM salary in 2022, Stallings is highly affordable in terms of salary — and he can be controlled via arbitration through the 2024 season. For a low-payroll club that is building around what it hopes will emerge as a dominant young pitching staff, Stallings is a highly sensible addition. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Elieser Hernandez, Max Meyer and others will all likely benefit from his framing and game-calling prowess.

Looking to the Pittsburgh’s return, they’ll add an immediate rotation piece (Thompson) in addition to a pair of promising young arms. The 28-year-old Thompson proved to be an outstanding pickup on a minor league deal last winter after the White Sox allowed him to become a free agent.

Thompson, a former fifth-rounder, gave the Marlins 75 innings of 3.24 ERA/3.69 FIP ball over the life of 26 appearances, including 14 starts. His 21% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate aren’t exactly dominant numbers, but Thompson thrived in terms of generating weak contact; his 87.6 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 76th percentile of MLB hurlers, while his 33.9% hard-hit rate checked into the 82nd percentile. The spin rate on his four-seamer is also in the 92nd percentile.

While Thompson won’t be mistaken for a top-of-the-rotation arm, he’ll give the Bucs six years of club control and won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least the 2023-24 offseason. (At 121 days of service in his debut season, he’ll be on the bubble of Super Two status, barring fundamental changes to the arbitration system in collective bargaining negotiations.) As it stands right now, Pittsburgh controls Thompson all the way through the 2027 season.

Nicolas, 22, was Miami’s second-round pick in the 2020 draft and ranked 23rd among their prospects on Baseball America’s midseason Top 30 list. He landed 16th at MLB.com and 18th among Miami farmhands on Eric Longenhagen’s rankings at FanGraphs. The Ball State product pitched to a combined 4.18 ERA through 99 innings of Class-A Advanced and Double-A ball this season, pitching more effectively at the more advanced of those two levels. Nicolas punched out 32% off his opponents this year, albeit with a somewhat bloated 11.5% walk rate. Miami has developed him as a starter to this point, but with a heater that reaches the upper 90s and a plus slider, it’s possible he’ll ultimately move to the bullpen.

Scott, meanwhile, was Miami’s first-round pick back in 2018. While he still landed in the middle tiers of the Miami system at both FanGraphs and MLB.com, Scott’s stock has dipped a bit since that lofty selection. (The lack of a minor league season in 2020 surely didn’t help his development.) Scott spent the 2021 season in Class-A Advanced, where he posted a solid .276/.333/.446 batting line with 10 homers and 14 steals, and reports on him suggest that he’s capable of playing a quality center field and hitting near the top of the lineup if things pan out. Scott only recently turned 22, and with a pretty good showing at Class-A Advanced under his belt, he could be ticketed for Double-A Altoona in 2022.

Pittsburgh doesn’t have an immediate heir-apparent to take the reins if Stallings, but the lack of an immediate successor in Pittsburgh served as little deterrent from jumping at what they surely view as a strong offer. The Pirates aren’t contending in 2022 anyhow, and the free-agent market has a number of veteran options who could be plugged in as a stopgap while the team waits on 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis to develop in the minors.

It’s a different story in Miami, where they’ve been on the hunt for a catcher for the better part of the past year. Miami has designs on stepping out of the NL East cellar and into playoff contention, and a move to both sharpen the team’s overall defense and help maximize the pitching staff is a strong step in that regard. Stallings won’t do much to bolster a lineup that was already lacking in power, but he’ll draw plenty of walks and provide the type of sage catcher that clubs often seek when building around young rotations.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were nearing agreement on a deal to acquire Stallings. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the Pirates were acquiring Thompson, Nicolas and Scott in return.

Photos courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Pirates Designate Colin Moran For Assignment

Anthony Franco — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 23:29:34 +0000

The Pirates announced this evening they’ve designated first baseman Colin Moran for assignment. The move clears space on the 40-man roster for Yoshi Tsutsugo, whose previously-reported one-year deal has been made official.

More to come.

Rangers To Sign Corey Seager

Anthony Franco — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 23:24:21 +0000

The Rangers’ huge offseason continues, as Texas has reportedly agreed to terms with free agent shortstop Corey Seager on a massive ten-year, $325MM guarantee. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly receive a $5MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, but the deal does not contain any opt-out clauses. It’s the Rangers’ second big-ticket free agent infield pickup in as many days, as they also agreed to terms with Marcus Semien on a seven-year, $175MM deal yesterday.

Huge as the Rangers’ investment in Semien is, the Seager deal is on a whole other level. The $325MM guarantee will tie Giancarlo Stanton’s November 2014 extension for the sixth-highest sum in MLB history (and Stanton’s was distributed over a thirteen-year term). The $32.5MM average annual value checks in eleventh all-time.

It’s an incredible investment, although that’s a testament to Seager’s blend of productivity and youth. He’ll turn 28 years old next April, making him one of the younger options available in free agency. More importantly, Seager’s one of the game’s best players — a middle-of-the-order lineup presence capable of playing shortstop. A former first-round pick and top prospect, he’s more than lived up to lofty expectations.

Seager has been an above-average bat in every season of his career, and he’s been far better than most at the plate for the bulk of that time. By measure of wRC+, he’s been at least 27 percentage points above the league average in four of his five seasons with 200+ plate appearances. Seager has been especially productive over the past two years, combining for a .306/.381/.545 line over 641 regular season trips to the plate since the start of 2020. That’s the eighth-best offensive production leaguewide (minimum 500 plate appearances) and that’s before considering Seager’s huge showing in the 2020 postseason. He was perhaps the single greatest driver of the Dodgers’ World Series run that year, winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors after popping seven homers over 57 combined plate appearances between the two rounds.

Those great bottom line results are supported by Seager’s underlying metrics. He has never struck out at a higher-than-average rate in a season, and he rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. Seager’s 11.7% walk rate in 2021 was the highest of his career, around three percentage points better than the league mark. The left-handed hitter pairs that plate discipline with high-end raw power, consistently rating well above-average in terms of average exit velocity, hard contact rate and barrel rate (essentially how often a hitter makes hard contact at the optimal angles for power).

Any player with Seager’s offensive acumen would be in high demand, but that kind of production is particularly impressive from a shortstop. Aside from a brief stint at third base in his 2015 rookie season, Seager has exclusively played the infield’s most demanding position. Advanced defensive metrics have been mixed on his work. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him just a touch below-average in each of the past few seasons; Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated Seager fairly well in 2019 and 2020 but pegged him as a fair bit below par in 2021.

Those metrics seem to align with the general understanding of Seager’s defense. He’s a competent if unexceptional shortstop, unlikely to either win a Gold Glove nor immediately have to move off the position. His 6’4″, 215-pound frame has led to some speculation he might kick over to third base at some point down the line, but it’s likely the Rangers envision him as a franchise shortstop for at least the next few seasons. Even if Seager eventually has to assume a less demanding defensive role, he should be more than capable of living up to the higher offensive demands of positions further down the defensive spectrum.

While there’s not much to nitpick about Seager as a player, he has dealt with a couple of significant injuries over the past few seasons. He missed the bulk of the 2018 campaign recovering from a UCL sprain that required Tommy John surgery. This past season, he suffered a right hand fracture on a hit-by-pitch that cost him two months. Seager absolutely mashed at a .335/.417/.592 clip upon returning from that most recent issue, though, likely assuaging any fears on the part of teams about his current level of health.

Seager now becomes the centerpiece of an incredible offseason for the Rangers and their fanbase. Texas brass has hinted at the potential for an active winter for months, but it wasn’t until a few weeks ago it became clear ownership might sign off on an historic spending spree. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier this month that the Rangers could add $100MM to their 2022 books alone, and between the recent deals for Seager, Semien, starter Jon Gray (four years, $56MM) and corner outfielder Kole Calhoun (one year, $5.2MM), they’ve added around $76.7MM to next year’s payroll within the past 36 hours alone.

That’s in part due to the wide open payroll outlook the Rangers carried into the winter. José Leclerc ($5.25MM) is the only other player with guaranteed money on the books for 2022; Seager, Semien and Gray are the club’s only long-term commitments. Active as they’ve been, it’s certainly possible the Rangers aren’t done yet. Texas currently has around $125MM in 2022 player expenditures, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. (That assumes the Seager, Semien and Gray deals are paid out relatively evenly; specific contract terms on each have yet to be reported). For a franchise that spent around $160-165MM on players in both 2016 and 2017, there could still be more funds in reserve.

Regardless of what’s to come, the past two days have marked an incredible turnaround for a franchise coming off three last-place finishes in the past four years. That’s not to say the Rangers are certain to contend in 2022. The roster still has plenty of holes, particularly in the starting rotation. Still, installing Seager and Semien into the middle infield and Gray near the top of the rotation locks in some certainty at key areas of the roster.

At the very least, the 2022 Rangers should be far better than the 60-102 team they trotted out in 2021. And Semien, Seager and Gray will all be key pieces of a club that could legitimately contend in 2023 — particularly if top third base prospect Josh Jung hits the ground running as an above-average player alongside their star middle infield.

Until Jung’s arrival, Isiah Kiner-Falefa looks likely to kick back over to third base. The 26-year-old broke in as a third baseman but acclimated well upon a move up the defensive spectrum to shortstop this past season. While the Rangers likely didn’t see displacing Kiner-Falefa as a must, the opportunity to add two members of this offseason’s stacked shortstop class ultimately proved too tempting to pass up. Semien, meanwhile, looks likely to stay at second base, where he spent the 2021 season with the Blue Jays after a lengthy run as the A’s shortstop.

The Rangers already forfeited their second-highest 2022 draft choice and gave up $500K in international bonus pool space to sign Semien, who rejected a qualifying offer from Toronto. They’ll lose another pick to sign Seager, who declined a QO from the Dodgers. Signing multiple qualified free agents in the same offseason actually makes some amount of sense, though.

Under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, teams that sign multiple qualified free agents pay a diminishing penalty. A team that already forfeited its second-highest pick on one qualified player (like the Rangers) lose their third-highest pick to sign another qualified free agent. That’s less costly than the second-highest pick other clubs in the Rangers’ revenue bucket would have had to forfeit to land Seager, a small benefit for teams concentrating their big free agent investments in the same offseason.

The primary appeal, though, is in simply adding a pair of star players to the 2022 roster. That’s the position in which the Rangers find themselves, while Seager’s former team finds itself in the opposite situation. The Dodgers have seen both Seager and Max Scherzer (who landed a record-setting three-year deal with the Mets) land elsewhere within the past few hours. Los Angeles’ acquisition of Trea Turner from the Nationals at this past summer’s trade deadline gives them another All-Star caliber shortstop capable of stepping into Seager’s place. That could leave second base to former top prospect Gavin Lux, particularly if the Dodgers also lose utilityman Chris Taylor in free agency.

Of course, the Dodgers aren’t likely to sit idly by for the rest of the offseason. Particularly as they battle with the Giants (and potentially Padres) in a loaded NL West, it’s likely Los Angeles will continue to explore ways to bolster a still-stacked roster. In the meantime, they’ll receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2022 draft for Seager’s departure as a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021.

Seager’s signing is the latest in a transactions flurry getting in before the looming expiration of the current CBA on Wednesday night. Seager’s and Scherzer’s departures from L.A. could have a massive impact on the NL West race, while the Rangers’ run of big-ticket acquisitions and the Mariners’ agreement on a nine-figure deal with Robbie Ray will have reverberations in the AL West for years to come.

Finally, Seager’s deal becomes a key data point for the rest of the free agent shortstops remaining, particularly Carlos Correa. While Seager and Correa were the clear top two names in this winter’s class, Correa is generally expected to command a loftier deal based on his superior defense at shortstop. Seager’s guarantee, however, comes in above MLBTR’s ten-year, $305MM estimate entering the winter. In light of the robust market we’ve seen in recent weeks, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Correa also tops his ten-year, $320MM projection whenever he puts pen to paper.

That’s particularly true in light of the Rangers signing two of the top five shortstops. The Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, Mariners and Astros are among the other clubs who could still be motivated to land a long-term infielder. That could be a boon to the markets for Correa, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Taylor, among others.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Rangers and Seager were in agreement on a ten-year, $325MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the limited no-trade protection and the $5MM signing bonus, as well as the absence of any form of opt-out clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2021 Roster Review: St. Louis Cardinals

Paul Sporer — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 22:17:10 +0000

90-72 (2nd in Division; 9th in MLB) [ PREVIOUS REVIEWS] SP Wins: 54 (9th) RP Wins: 36 (13th) Saves: 50 (4th) 1+ Save: 7 (Alex Reyes 29, Giovanny Gallegos 14, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Luis García 2, Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현, Ryan Helsley, Justin Miller 1) 100+ Ks: 1 (Adam Wainwright 174) .260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Paul Goldschmidt .294, Tyler O’Neill .286, Edmundo Sosa .271, Harrison Bader .267...

Source

Marlins, Pirates Agree To Jacob Stallings Trade

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 21:53:17 +0000

3:53pm: The Pirates are acquiring righty Zach Thompson in addition to pitching prospects Kyle Nicolas and Connor Scott, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports.

3:43pm: The Marlins are closing in on a trade to acquire catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The teams are reviewing medicals of the players involved.

More to come.

MLB Imposes Retroactive 20-Game Suspension On Marcell Ozuna For Violation Of Domestic Violence Policy

Anthony Franco — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 21:17:58 +0000

Major League Baseball announced a retroactive 20-game suspension without pay for Braves outfielder Marcell Ozuna, as per the terms of the MLB – MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. Ozuna’s suspension was retroactively served during his time on Administrative Leave at the end of this past season; he’ll be eligible to return to the field starting in 2022. He will forfeit twenty games’ salary, as his previous Administrative Leave placement had been paid pending the results of the league’s investigation.

Ozuna was arrested on May 29 after police responded to a domestic disturbance at his residence. Court filings at the time indicated that the responding officers saw Ozuna place his hands around his wife’s neck, throw her against a wall and strike her with a cast that was on his left hand. (He had fractured two fingers in a game the week before and was on the injured list at the time).

Felony charges originally brought against Ozuna were dropped in early August, but prosecutors moved forward with a pair of misdemeanor charges. In early September, Ozuna agreed to enter into a three-to-six month domestic violence intervention program that could see those charges dropped if he completes all the required measures. The domestic violence policy allows the league to impose discipline even in the absence of criminal charges.

Ozuna signed a four-year, $65MM contract with the Braves last offseason. He remains under contract through 2024.

Pirates Designate Steven Brault For Assignment

Anthony Franco — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 21:03:32 +0000

The Pirates announced they’ve designated southpaw Steven Brault for assignment. The move clears space on the 40-man roster for José Quintana, whose previously-reported one-year deal has been made official.

Brault had been eligible for arbitration, so today’s DFA will function as an early non-tender. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.2MM salary. That’s not an exorbitant sum, but Brault’s coming off a tough season — one in which he missed a few months on account of a forearm strain. The 29-year-old ended up making just seven starts, working 27 2/3 innings of 5.86 ERA ball with a below-average 15% strikeout percentage.

That tough 2021 showing looks as if it’ll bring an end to Brault’s six-season tenure in Pittsburgh, but he’s only a year removed from being a capable member of the Bucs’ rotation. He started ten of his eleven appearances in the shortened 2020 season, pitching to a 3.38 ERA across 42 2/3 frames. That strong run prevention mark wasn’t entirely supported by ERA estimators, which pegged Brault as more of a back-of-the-rotation type. The sinkerballer induced grounders on nearly half the balls in play against him that year, though, and he’s typically done a solid job keeping the ball on the ground over the past few seasons.

Pittsburgh will now have to trade or waive Brault in the coming days. If another team were to acquire him via one of those avenues, he’d remain under control via arbitration for the next two seasons. If he passes through waivers unclaimed, Brault would have the right to refuse an outright assignment in favor of minor league free agency.

Mariners To Sign Robbie Ray

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 20:32:01 +0000

2:32pm: Ray is flying to Seattle to take his physical right now, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.

2:20pm: The Mariners are closing in on an agreement with reigning American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, as first reported by Michael Mayer of MetsMerized (Twitter link). It’s a five-year deal worth $115MM and an opt-out after the third season, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the contract includes a full no-trade clause in the first two seasons and a trade assignment bonus if he’s moved thereafter. Ray is represented by VC Sports Group.

Ray, 30, has long been a premier strikeout arm with command issues, which culminated in a 2020 season that saw him traded from Arizona to Toronto in what amounted to a salary dump. While the lefty didn’t immediately turn things around, the Jays jumped to re-sign him for a year and $8MM right out of the gate in the 2020-21 offseason, clearly believing they could help the lefty find another gear.

Even the Toronto front office’s best-case scenario might not have mirrored the 2021 breakout enjoyed by Ray, who was near-unanimously named AL Cy Young (29 of 30 first-place votes). Ray not only restored his command to prior levels but took it to new heights, walking a career-low 6.7% of his opponents. Ray ramped up the usage of his four-seamer at the expensive of his curveball, largely favoring a two-pitch mix that leaned heavily on his plus slider’s ability to perplex opponents.

The results were obviously outstanding, as Ray compiled an AL-best 2.84 ERA and also paced the American League in innings pitched (193 1/3), total strikeouts (248) and ERA+ (154). Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Ray’s overall 32.1% strikeout rate trailed only Corbin Burnes, Carlos Rodon, Max Scherzer, Freddy Peralta and Gerrit Cole. His 15.5% swinging-strike rate ranked third among the 129 hurlers who tossed 100-plus frames.

Ray was still prone to the long ball, evidenced by an unsightly 1.54 HR/9 mark, but his ability to keep runners off the basepaths led to nearly 70 percent of those long balls coming with the bases empty. It’s fair to wonder how much concern over that penchant might have impacted his market and kept him from reaching a sixth guaranteed year, but one would also imagine that a move to Seattle and a move out of the generally hitter-friendly AL East will only help to lower that mark.

With Ray departing the Blue Jays, it’s hard to ignore the striking similarity between his contract and the $110MM guaranteed by his former team to another free-agent starter: righty Kevin Gausman. Perhaps the Jays weren’t keen on including an opt-out in the deal, or perhaps they just generally prefer Gausman to Ray when all is said and done. Toronto did pursue Gausman both in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons, so he’s clearly been of interest to GM Ross Atkins & Co. for quite some time.

With the Mariners, Ray will head up a rotation that also includes lefty Marco Gonzales, righty Chris Flexen and righty Logan Gilbert. Gonzales has long been a steady and durable source of above-average innings, while Flexen proved to be a savvy KBO reclamation project for president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto and his staff this past offseason. Gilbert, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top-end pitching prospect who struggled in the middle of the 2021 season but bookended those struggles with a strong start and strong finish to the season.

Other options in the Seattle rotation currently include Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn, though the Mariners are deep in tantalizing pitching prospects after a protracted rebuilding effort. Top prospects George Kirby, Matt Brash and Emerson Hancock are all progressing through the system, with Brash and Kirby in particular not far from big league readiness. Lefty Brandon Williamson, too, could emerge as an option before long.

Of course, it’s fair to wonder with all that pitching depth and with a good bit of outfield depth, if the Mariners might not choose to trade for another established rotation piece. Ray figures to be the big-ticket free agent addition on the pitching side — not that they couldn’t simply sign another notable arm — but there’s a bevy of quality arms rumored to be available in trade. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo have all had their names kicked about the rumor circuit already, and the Marlins are reportedly open to dealing from their pitching depth as well. Whether it’s a trade or a free agent, another addition to the starting staff to complement the Mariners’ new ace seems likely at some point.

For the time being, it’s possible Seattle will pivot to acquire the bat Dipoto has already suggested he hopes to sign. Dipoto name-checked both Marcus Semien (now with the Rangers) and Javier Baez earlier this winter in voicing a desire to add some “adaptable” free agents, and the Mariners have also been tied to Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor, among others.

From a payroll vantage point, there’s no reason the Mariners shouldn’t be able to add a high-end bat and another rotation addition piece. Even after adding Ray, the Mariners are still projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez to field a payroll of about $88MM (assuming an even distribution of his $23MM annual value). For a Mariners club that has taken payroll north of $150MM in the past, there’s plenty of space to add to pile. Ray currently stands as the largest free-agent addition the Mariners have made under Dipoto, but if he wants to spend more aggressively, the means to do should be present.

After all, the Mariners are staring down a two-decade playoff drought, and now more than ever might be the time for Seattle to push toward ending that dry spell. The Mariners were surprisingly in contention for a Wild Card berth right up until the final weekend of the offseason, and they’ll have even more products of their ballyhooed farm system graduating to the Majors in 2022 — headlined by outfielder Julio Rodriguez. Beyond that, the A’s are on the verge of a tear-down that will see them trade several key players, while the Astros could lose Carlos Correa in free agency. The Rangers are spending aggressively to help put a contender back on the field in the second season of their newly constructed stadium but may be a year or two from truly competing.

In many ways, the time for the Mariners to throttle ahead is now, and the signing of Ray serves as a firm indicator that the front office feels similarly. Armed with an elite farm system and tens of millions of dollars in payroll space, Seattle appears poised for an aggressive winter where Ray is just one of several high-end additions.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Mariners Finalizing Deal With Robbie Ray

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 20:21:01 +0000

The Mariners are closing in on an agreement with reigning American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, as first reported by Michael Mayer of MetsMerized (Twitter link). It’s a five-year deal worth $115MM and an opt-out after the third season, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the contract includes a full no-trade clause in the first two seasons and a trade assignment bonus if he’s moved thereafter. Ray is represented by VC Sports Group.

More to come.

Rangers Making Push For Corey Seager

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 20:15:40 +0000

The Rangers have already agreed to terms with one of the five big free-agent shortstops, hammering out a seven-year, $175MM deal with Marcus Semien. They’re reportedly still in the market for another infield upgrade, however, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that they’re making a “big push” to sign Seager.

Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last night (Twitter links) that the Rangers were in play for Seager even after agreeing to the Semien deal, with Sherman adding that Seager is hopeful he’ll choose a new club today. And Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote earlier today that the Rangers remained “very much” in the hunt for Seager as of this morning.

SNY’s Andy Martino reported this morning that both the Rangers and Dodgers were more much more involved in the Seager market than the Yankees, who aren’t believed to have been as aggressive on the 27-year-old. That meshes both with the idea of Texas still being a serious player for Seager and with recent reports suggesting that the Yanks might not sign any of the big-name free agent this winter.

It’s far from clear that Seager’s market is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Rangers at this point. That said, both parties can certainly afford to sign Seager long-term, and the Dodgers did just tap out during the bidding for ace Max Scherzer, who’s headed to the Mets on a record-setting three-year contract. Seager, like Scherzer (and Semien), is represented by the Boras Corporation, so it’s perhaps possible now that with Scherzer and Semien resolved, the focus will turn to finding a landing spot for Seager.

Seager rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers at season’s end and is widely expected to cash in on a contract that spans upwards of a decade in length. The former first-round pick and NL Rookie of the Year has posted a combined .306/.381/.545 batting line with 31 homers through his past 147 games/641 plate appearances.

While the Rangers already have Semien in tow and have another capable defensive shortstop in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the defensive flexibility both Semien and Kiner-Falefa bring to the table allows Texas to be rather nimble in its offseason pursuits. Seager could conceivably play either shortstop or third base, while both Kiner-Falefa and Semien can handle any of third, short or second base. Signing Seager would headline what’s been a highly aggressive offseason thus far for a Rangers club that has not only signed Semien but also agreed to deals with righty Jon Gray (four years, $56MM) and outfielder Kole Calhoun (one year, $5.2MM).

Blue Jays Sign Seven Players To Minor League Deals

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 19:54:15 +0000

The Blue Jays announced Monday that they’ve signed the following seven players to minor league deals: right-handers David Phelps, Jose De Leon and Casey Lawrence; outfielders Mallex Smith and Nathan Lukes; left-hander Matt Gage; and catcher Kellin Deglan. Phelps will earn a $1.75MM salary if he makes the club, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

More to come.

Braves, Darren O’Day Agree To Minor League Deal

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 19:49:35 +0000

The Braves have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran reliever Darren O’Day, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Presumably, the Ballengee Group client will be in Major League Spring Training and hope to secure a roster spot in what would be a return bid with Atlanta.

More to come.

Phillies Claim Yoan Lopez, Designate Roman Quinn

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 19:32:45 +0000

The Phillies announced Monday that they’ve claimed righty Yoan Lopez off waivers from the Braves and cleared a roster spot by designating outfielder Roman Quinn for assignment.

The 28-year-old Lopez had a solid run with the Braves’ top affiliate, Triple-A Gwinnett, tallying 32 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA ball with a 26.7% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate in that time. Atlanta never gave him a look in the Majors after acquiring him in a small, late-May swap with the D-backs, however, and Lopez was designated for assignment when the Braves picked up righty Jay Jackson from the Giants last week.

Once a high-profile international signing by the D-backs, Lopez has only tallied 101 2/3 innings in the big leagues to this point. He carries a 4.25 ERA with a solid 7.7% walk rate but a below-average 19.1% strikeout rate. He has a pair of minor league options remaining and will give the Phillies some bullpen depth if he survives the offseason on their 40-man roster.

More to come.

Grayson Greiner Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 19:29:13 +0000

The Tigers announced Monday that catcher Grayson Greiner went unclaimed on outright waivers and has declined an outright assignment in favor of free agency. Greiner had the right to do so, as a player with more than three years of Major League service time.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a modest raise to $800K for Greiner, but the Tigers have ample depth at catcher and effectively non-tendered Greiner with today’s move. Detroit already acquired Tucker Barnhart to serve as their starting catcher on day one of the offseason, and the Tigers also have Jake Rogers and Eric Haase on the roster — to say nothing of 2020 second-rounder Dillon Dingler, who clobbered Class-A pitching in 2021 before struggling upon a promotion to Double-A.

Greiner, 29, was the Tigers’ third-round pick back in 2014 but hasn’t hit much in parts of four big league seasons. From 2018-21, Greiner received 477 Major League plate appearances but posted just a .201/.274/.309 batting line with a 32.1% strikeout rate. He’s been a bit better in Triple-A, where he’s a .233/.314/.347 hitter in 388 plate appearances. Behind the plate, Greiner has been a bit below average, but passable, in terms of framing and also boasts a strong 31% caught-stealing rate in his career. He’ll likely get some opportunities to join a club as upper-level depth with a fair bit of MLB experience.

Detroit’s 40-man roster is now at 38 players.

Rays To Sign Brooks Raley

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 18:01:03 +0000

The Rays have agreed to a deal with free-agent lefty Brooks Raley, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal will be finalized once Raley, a client of Vanguard Sports, passes a physical.

Raley, 33, was one of the top lefty relievers on the market this winter. Since 2020, he’s got a 31.8 K% and 7.6 BB% in 69 innings for the Reds and Astros. As you’d expect, he’s been devastating against lefty batters, with a 40.5 K% against them in that time. Raley has struggled to tame righties, allowing six home runs against the 120 hitters he faced from that side this year. That’s a large part of his 4.83 ERA since 2020, and something the Rays will have to navigate carefully with the three-batter minimum expected to stay in effect.

More to come.

Mets, Max Scherzer Agree To Record-Setting Three-Year Deal

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 17:45:42 +0000

11:45am: Scherzer can opt out of the contract after the 2023 season, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. There’s also a full no-trade clause in the pact, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

11:41am: The agreement has been finalized and is now a “done deal,” tweets Martino.

11:03am: The Mets and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer are finalizing a three-year contract worth $130MM, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. There are only “minor details” left to be sorted out before the Scott Boras client puts pen to paper on a contract that will shatter Gerrit Cole’s $36MM annual value record. SNY’s Andy Martino had suggested just minutes beforehand that the two parties were moving close to an agreement.

The Scherzer signing is the latest in a frenzied series of free-agent signings for a Mets club that added Starling Marte (four years, $78MM), Mark Canha (two years, $26.5MM) and Eduardo Escobar (two years, $20MM) over the weekend. Scherzer joins a Mets rotation already headlined by one of the generation’s best pitchers, Jacob deGrom, giving the club a one-two punch with a combined five Cy Young Awards and 12 All-Star appearances.

As can be seen on MLBTR’s updated list of the highest average annual values (AAVs) in MLB history, the $43.33MM annual value on Scherzer’s contract establishes a new precedent by a whopping $7.33MM. MLBTR predicted would handily top the previous $36MM record by signing a three-year, $120MM deal — but he’ll break the prior record by an even wider margin. As one of the eight players on the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee, Scherzer undoubtedly takes pride in advancing the AAV record forward by more than 20 percent.

It comes as something of a surprise to see the deep-pocketed Dodgers outbid on the very type of short-term, huge-AAV deals they tend to prioritize, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested this morning that Los Angeles perhaps preferred to stick to a two-year term. Scherzer, confident in his own abilities and quite likely heartened by the Mets’ aggressive weekend, opted to jump to a club that missed the postseason entirely in 2021 but has quickly come to look more formidable (and surely isn’t yet done with its winter dealings).

The contract carries some obvious risk for the Mets, given not only the sheer magnitude of the number but also given that they’re acquiring Scherzer’s age-37 through age-39 seasons. He’ll turn 40 years old shortly before the contract draws to a conclusion, and the dead arm that plagued him late in the playoffs could certainly have given some interested parties a bit of pause. Still, Scherzer is effectively an unprecedented free agent — so an unprecedented contract only feels fitting.

With three Cy Youngs in his back pocket already, plus another trio of Top 3 finishes (and a pair of fifth-place finishes), Scherzer has emerged as the greatest pitcher of the current generation. He’d be a slam-dunk Hall of Famer even if he retired today, but he’ll spend the next three seasons in Queens, hoping to help the Mets not only secure their first postseason berth since 2016 but win their first World Series title since 1986.

Despite his age, Scherzer remains one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet. Among the 129 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in 2021, Scherzer ranked fourth in ERA (2.46), tenth in FIP (2.97), third in strikeout rate (34.1%), 11th in walk rate (5.2%), second in K-BB% (28.9%) and third in swinging-strike rate (15.9%). He was well above average in terms of limiting hard contact, and Statcast pegged him in the 91st percentile or better in expected opponents’ batting average, expected ERA and expected opponents’ wOBA. Whether you prefer those newer metrics or simply to look at Scherzer’s 15-4 record, minuscule ERA and a similarly microscopic 0.86 WHIP — there’s no getting around the fact that “Mad Max” is not just a bona fide ace but is still one of the game’s truly elite pitchers, even in his late 30s.

Scherzer joins deGrom atop a Mets rotation that isn’t short on injury risk but is also teeming with talent. That iconic pairing will be followed by the likes of Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson and Tylor Megill — though it certainly remains possible that the Mets will further augment the starting staff.

The recent free-agent flurry leaves the Mets with a jaw-dropping $268MM payroll projection, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with upwards of $273MM in luxury-tax obligations. Even with that stratospheric number in place, however, we’re not even two weeks removed from owner Steve Cohen stating plainly at GM Billy Eppler’s introductory press conference that when it comes to payroll for Eppler and the rest of the baseball operations department: “It’s whatever they need.”

More to come.

The Not Not News Podcast: The Legend of Gagger Blast

Donkey Teeth — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 17:45:00 +0000

It’s your favorite hour of the week! The Not Not News is back with all the Billy Hurley jokes and Grey Albright cackles you can handle. This week, a Dartmouth professor makes her way into the Guinness Book of World Records by constructing a 9-foot tall gaming joystick. Then a bear walks into a 7-11 to use their hand sanitizer, and Will Smith (the actor) opens up about some sexual disorders he's struggled with in the past. Listen to the entire show below, now 100% free of charge! Here are this week's stories so you can follow along:

Heaters That Crushed in 2021

Nicklaus Gaut — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 17:30:09 +0000

As baseball history keeps telling us, a pitcher’s ultimate success often starts with the heater, providing a base of core strength for their pitch-mix body on which the glamor muscles of the breaking stuff can better be supported. With that in mind, let’s look at the best fastballs from starters in 2022 according to Run-Value (per 100 pitches) before looking at three possible draft-day bargains.

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Mets, Max Scherzer Finalizing Three-Year Deal

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 17:03:42 +0000

The Mets and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer are finalizing a three-year contract worth $130MM, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. There are only “minor details” left to be sorted out before the Scott Boras client puts pen to paper on a contract that will shatter Gerrit Cole’s $36MM annual value record. SNY’s Andy Martino had suggested just minutes beforehand that the two parties were moving close to an agreement.

Barring any last-minute hiccups, the Scherzer signing will be the latest in a frenzied series of free-agent signings for a Mets club that added Starling Marte (four years, $78MM), Mark Canha (two years, $26.5MM) and Eduardo Escobar (two years, $20MM) over the weekend. Scherzer would join a Mets rotation already headlined by one of the generation’s best pitchers, Jacob deGrom, giving the club a one-two punch with a combined five Cy Young Awards and 12 All-Star appearances.

If the final numbers do clock in at three years and $130MM, that $43.33MM average annual value (AAV) on Scherzer’s contract would be the largest in Major League history by a whopping $7.33MM. As one of the eight players on the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee, Scherzer undoubtedly takes pride in advancing the AAV record forward in such a meaningful way.

The contract is an obvious risk for the Mets, given not only the sheer magnitude of the number but also given that they’ re acquiring Scherzer’s age-37 through age-39 seasons. He’ll turn 40 years old shortly before the contract draws to a conclusion, and the dead arm that plagued him late in the playoffs could certainly have given some interested parties a bit of pause. Still, Scherzer is effectively an unprecedented free agent — so an unprecedented contract only feels fitting.

More to come.

Sign Up For The Free MLBTR Newsletter

Tim Dierkes — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 17:00:26 +0000

If you’re having a hard time keeping up with the hot stove, sign up for the free MLB Trade Rumors newsletter! The newsletter is written by Cliff Corcoran, who has an extensive resume contributing to Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, and other outlets. Cliff will take you through the hot stove highlights of the previous day, boiling down MLBTR’s many posts into the essential stories.

This free newsletter comes out Monday through Friday in the morning. Be sure to check your inbox and click the link in the confirmation email. If you’re not seeing the box to input your email, you can simply click this link to sign up.

Mets In Serious Talks With Max Scherzer

Mark Polishuk — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 16:48:27 +0000

10:48am: Martino tweets that an agreement between the two parties again appears close.

9:50am: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets’ offer to Scherzer is in the three-year, $129MM range. Sherman suggested earlier this morning that the Mets had the top offer and the Dodgers seemed reluctant to go beyond two years (Twitter thread).

Nov. 29, 9:33am: The Mets and Scherzer’s camp have “re-engaged” after some brief downtime overnight, Martino tweets. Martino suggests that talks could be nearing the finish line.

Nov. 28: The Mets are nearing a multi-year contract with Max Scherzer, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (Twitter link). Based on multiple reports from earlier tonight, Scherzer may be on the verge of signing the largest average annual value contract in baseball history. SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier tonight that the Mets were prepared to go beyond $40MM in annual salary, and in Martino’s latest tweet, he writes that New York is offering Scherzer a $42MM AAV over either three or four years. Scherzer is represented by the Boras Corporation.

The news puts an exclamation point on a pitching search that has thus far been fruitless for the Mets, as targets such as Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz have all come off the board. Matz’s deal with the Cardinals even drew some public ire from Mets owner Steve Cohen on Twitter, who accused agent Rob Martin of “unprofessional behavior” in their negotiations.

Those near-misses now fade into the background in the wake of what might be a precedent-setting contract with one of the best pitchers in baseball history. Scherzer was seen as more likely to sign with a team on the West Coast, as per his preferences when leveraging his no-trade clause to join the Dodgers back at the trade deadline. As such, teams like the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants were known to be in the hunt for the 37-year-old ace, but instead, Scherzer now seems poised to return to both the East Coast and the NL East itself, after six-plus seasons with the Nationals.

While Scherzer was already a highly accomplished pitcher before he went to Washington, he rose to legendary status after signing his seven-year, $210MM free agent pact with the Nats in the 2014-15 offseason. Scherzer’s stint in D.C. included two NL Cy Young Awards (to go with his 2013 AL Cy with the Tigers), two no-hitters, a 20-strikeout game, a 2.80 ERA over 1229 innings, and the crowning achievement of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series championship. All told, a strong case can be made that Scherzer’s deal is the best mega-deal in the history of free agency.

Once the Nationals fell out of contention this summer, Scherzer and Trea Turner were dealt to Los Angeles in a blockbuster swap, and Scherzer continued to pitch well in leading the Dodgers to the NLCS. The Dodgers were still considered as the favorites to re-sign Scherzer up until just earlier this evening, as the Dodgers’ deep pockets gave them the flexibility to consider the type of huge AAV required to meet Scherzer’s asking price. MLB Trade Rumors indeed projected Scherzer to set a new AAV standard, predicting him to a land a three-year, $120MM pact to remain in Dodger blue.

The Current Starting Pitcher NFBC ADP Landscape

Michael Simione — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 16:30:21 +0000

For this exercise, we will be looking at starting pitchers and their NFBC ADP as of 11/29/21. It’s always interesting to see how the crowd thinks, who they seem to value, and how fantasy managers are shaping their drafts. For instance, how many pitchers are going in the first round? How many fantasy managers are grabbing two starting pitchers in the first three rounds? A lot to unpack and a lot of...

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Nick Castellanos Reportedly Seeking Seven- Or Eight-Year Deal

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 16:08:08 +0000

10:08am: The Phillies have had recent talks with Castellanos, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. As he points out, Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was GM in Detroit when the Tigers selected Castellanos with the No. 44 overall draft pick.

7:36am: As a strong season for Nick Castellanos progressed in Cincinnati, it became increasingly obvious that the slugger would opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract in favor of a return to the free-agent market. Castellanos, however, is perhaps seeking an even larger payday than most would expect; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Castellanos and agent Scott Boras are eyeing a contract of seven or even eight years in length. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this morning that the Marlins still have interest in Castellanos even after landing Avisail Garcia, though Feinsand suggests Castellanos’ asking price is too rich for Miami’s liking.

The 29-year-old Castellanos (30 in March) posted a huge .309/.362/.576 slash with 34 home runs, 38 doubles, a triple and three steals through 585 plate appearances this past season. Castellanos briefly missed time due to a microfracture in his wrist, but he shook off the rust almost immediately upon returning and closed out the year on a .294/.335/.606 heater through the final six weeks or so of play (176 plate appearances).

Excellent as Castellanos is and has been at the plate, seven and eight years are stills jarring numbers. Castellanos’ glovework has been consistently panned by defensive metrics — both at his original position (third base) and since moving to right field on a full-time basis in 2018. The 2021 season was no exception, as virtually any metric (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, -7 Outs Above Average) framed Castellanos as a liability in right. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Reds, meaning any team that signs him will be subject to draft-pick forfeiture.

To his credit, Castellanos is far from a one-year wonder — even if the 2021 season was his most productive to date. While a poor three-week finish in the shortened 2020 season tanked his season numbers, he still finished with league-average output, per both wRC+ and OPS+, and he’s been consistently strong at the dish outside that season. Both wRC+ and OPS+ suggest Castellanos has been about 22 percent better than the league-average hitter dating all the way back to 2016, and his bat truly soared to new heights upon being traded from the Tigers to Cubs. Even when including that average 2020 output, Castellanos carries a .292/.346/.571 batting line (134 wRC+) through 1052 plate appearances since leaving Detroit.

It’s commonplace for agents to aim for the moon in free agency, and while it can oftentimes burn a player, there are also deals of surprising magnitude each winter. (Few would’ve expected Marcus Semien to command a seven-year deal this winter, for instance.) It’d be a surprise to see Castellanos command such a weighty commitment, but he’s arguably the best bat available in free agency this offseason and would clearly benefit from the widely expected advent of the universal designated hitter.

Reds Sign Aramis Garcia To Minor League Deal

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 15:28:05 +0000

The Reds have signed catcher Aramis Garcia to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, per a club announcement.

Garcia, 29 in January, is a former Giants prospect who once looked like a possible backup option to Buster Posey. He carries a solid .268/.333/.448 slash in 536 Triple-A plate appearances and turned in an impressive .286/.308/.492 debut as a rookie in 2018 — albeit through just 65 plate appearances. Garcia didn’t hit much in 46 plate appearances the following season, however, and he underwent major hip surgery in Feb. 2020 that kept him from playing that season.

Garcia spent the 2021 season with the A’s organization, hitting just .205/.239/.318 through 94 plate appearances in his first action since that labrum repair surgery in 2020. He did manage a more palatable .268/.323/.393 slash in 124 Triple-A plate appearances.

Bringing Garcia into the fold adds some depth to the organization after trading Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers earlier in the offseason. Tyler Stephenson is the clear starter behind the plate on the heels of an impressive rookie season that saw him hit .286/.366/.431 with 10 homers in 402 plate appearances. That production surely made it easier to move Barnhart, but it’s not clear at this point who’ll back him up.

Catching prospect and Team USA Silver Medalist Mark Kolozsvary was recently added to the 40-man roster and will compete for that spot, and utilityman Kyle Farmer has experience behind the dish as well. Farmer, however, saw extensive run at shortstop last season and fared well there on both sides of the game. He’s more likely an option in the infield than behind the plate, where he has just 90 career innings.

Pirates’ Jacob Stallings Drawing Trade Interest

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 15:10:39 +0000

Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings is generating trade interest from clubs seeking help behind the plate, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He lists both the Marlins and Yankees as possible matches in a trade.

Stallings, 32 next month, won’t wow anyone with his offensive numbers but is widely regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the sport — if not one of the best defenders at any position. Over the past three seasons, he’s posted a .251/.331/.374 batting line with 17 home runs, 32 doubles and a triple in 780 plate appearances. That’s about nine percent worse than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, though it’s right in line with the leaguewide average for catchers, specifically.

It might be tempting to assume that Stallings’ on-base percentage has benefited from hitting eighth in front of Pirates pitchers, but that’s not necessarily the case. Stallings has spent a good chunk of time in the eight spot, but he’s spent more time hitting fifth, sixth and seventh in the Pittsburgh lineup and actually has better walk rates out of those slots than he does in the eight hole.

Where Stallings truly shines, however, is with the glove. He’s ranked as one of the game’s best defenders for the past few seasons and finally got his well-deserved credit in 2021 when he took home his first NL Gold Glove Award. Stallings posted a massive 21 Defensive Runs Saved mark in 2021 and has racked up an outstanding 42 DRS dating back to Opening Day 2019.

Stallings has consistently delivered plus framing marks according to each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and he draws perennially strong marks for his pitch-blocking skills at Baseball Prospectus as well. In terms of controlling the running game, Stallings had something of a down season in 2021 (21% caught-stealing), though the pitching staff surely shared some of the blame in that regard; Stallings had a huge 36.2% caught-stealing rate from 2019-20.

The other element of Stallings’ appeal is his affordable salary and remaining club control. Because he doesn’t pile up the counting stats that portend significant arbitration salaries, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a highly reasonable $2.6MM in 2022. He’s controlled another two seasons beyond that, so any club to acquire Stallings would be bolstering its catching corps through the 2024 season.

Pittsburgh doesn’t have an immediate heir-apparent to take the reins if Stallings is dealt. Between that fact and the combination of his salary, club control and excellent defense, Stallings may have higher trade value than some would expect when glancing solely at his offensive numbers. That said, the lack of an immediate successor in Pittsburgh shouldn’t necessarily dissuade the Bucs from jumping if a strong offer is presented. The Pirates aren’t contending in 2022 anyhow, and the free-agent market has a number of veteran options who could be plugged in as a stopgap while the team waits on 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis to develop in the minors.

Nationals, Luis Avilan Agree To Minor League Deal

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 14:50:03 +0000

The Nationals have agreed to a minor league contract bringing veteran left-handed reliever Luis Avilan back to the organization, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Avilan, 32, underwent Tommy John surgery last April and was thus limited to five innings with the Nats. He allowed an unsightly seven runs in that time, but the southpaw has a strong track record dating back to his 2012 MLB debut with the Braves. In 349 big league innings from 2012-20, Avilan worked to a combined 3.30 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a strong 50.3% ground-ball rate.

As with most southpaw relievers, Avilan has been better against lefties than against righties, though he’s far from a pure specialist. Left-handed batters have posted a feeble .204/.279/.281 slash against him through 686 plate appearances, while right-handers carry a decent but hardly dominant .262/.347/.387 output through 805 trips to the plate.

Given the time of his surgery, Avilan will spend Spring Training rehabbing the injury and likely won’t be an option for the Nationals until the summer. If he’s healthy, he can give the Nats a solid lefty in the bullpen and perhaps a modestly priced trade chip if he rounds back into form prior to the end of July.

Marlins In Market For Outfielders Even After Garcia Deal

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 14:24:26 +0000

The Marlins aren’t 24 hours removed from agreeing to a four-year, $53MM contract with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports they’re still seeking offensive upgrades (all Twitter links). Outfielders appear the priority, with Heyman listing Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor and Eddie Rosario among the possible targets.

Miami already guaranteed $53MM to Garcia over the next four seasons — a hefty splash by their typically modest standards. It’d be a surprise to see them follow that up by signing any of Castellanos, Schwarber or Taylor, as all three are expected to top that four-year deal landed by Garcia. Castellanos is reported to be seeking a contract of as many as seven or eight years in length, though it seems likely he’ll ultimately settle in a bit shy of that mark. Even still, there’s a good chance he’ll double the Garcia total.

Schwarber and Taylor, meanwhile, could both land larger four- or even five-year deals than Garcia signed. Schwarber parlayed a huge season between Washington and Boston into a strong free-agent stock, while Taylor has long been a steady super-utility piece for the Dodgers, He’d give Miami an option in center field for at least the first season or two of the deal — something they very much crave — and he’d give them some cover in the infield as well. That could be particularly appealing to Miami after the Marlins saw each of Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm and Brian Anderson miss significant time in 2021.

Rosario, 30, seems like a more viable fit in Miami than the other names on the list — at least from a price perspective. The longtime Twins outfielder was non-tendered by Minnesota last winter, signed a one-year deal in Cleveland and found himself headed to the Braves in what amounted to a deadline salary dump. Rosario took off in Atlanta, however, returning from the injured list to slash .271/.330/.573 in his final 106 plate appearances. His heater continued into the postseason, where he won NLCS MVP honors. Even with a quiet World Series, Rosario still posted a massive .383/.456/.617 slash in 68 playoff plate appearances.

Streaky play of that nature has been the norm throughout Rosario’s career. In general, he’s a free-swinging left fielder with plenty of power but a low walk rates and dwindling defensive ratings. Dating back to the 2017 season, Rosario is a .278/.315/.484 hitter, but those numbers have tailed off in recent years. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg Rosario as a decent left fielder, but not the standout defender he was in 2018. Statcast’s Outs Above Average, however, graded Rosario harshly and ranked him worst among all MLB outfielders (-18).

Both Castellanos and Taylor rejected qualifying offers, meaning they’d cost the Marlins their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Schwarber and Rosario were ineligible to receive qualifying offers by virtue of being traded midseason (though only Schwarber would’ve commanded one).

Joining the Fly Ball Revolution — Apr 19, 2021, A Review

Mike Podhorzer — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 13:15:00 +0000

Why do we care about a batter’s fly ball rate? Because all else being equal, a higher fly ball rate will result in more homers, so paying attention to a hitter’s batted ball profile is important. Typically, analysis centers around a hitter’s raw home run total and whether it’s higher or lower than expected at any point during the season. Sometimes, we see HR/FB rate thrown in as well to assess how...

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Multiple Teams In Talks With Reds About Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo

James Hicks — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 12:39:44 +0000

Per an early morning report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Reds have had talks with multiple teams about their starting pitchers, including Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo. Morosi’s tweet suggests that most talks have revolved around Mahle (who has two years of control remaining after a breakout 2021) and Gray (who’s under contract for 2022 for $10.2MM, with a $12MM club option for 2023), either of whom would cost significantly less in prospect capital than would Castillo. Like Mahle, Castillo has two years of club control remaining, but he also has a longer track record of consistent high-end production than either Mahle or Gray.

More to come.

Reds Have Had Recent Trade Talks Regarding Castillo, Gray, Mahle

James Hicks — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 12:39:44 +0000

The Reds have had talks with multiple teams about starting pitchers Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Cincinnati has reportedly been open to dealing starting pitchers for weeks now, but Morosi suggests there have been recent discussions on all three from that trio.

Either Mahle (who has two years of control remaining after a breakout 2021) or Gray (who’s under contract for $10.2MM in 2022, with a $12MM club option for 2023) would figure to cost significantly less in prospect capital than would Castillo, whom Cincinnati is said to be loath to deal. Like Mahle, Castillo has two years of club control remaining. However, he also has a longer track record of consistent high-end production than Mahle, and he’s three years younger and less expensive than Gray, who is playing out the final two years of a contract extennsion.

An earlier report by Morosi had linked the Angels to Castillo, though he described those talks as “preliminary.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, however, that the Angels are at the “forefront” of the Castillo push, even as the Reds have told opposing GMs they prefer to hang onto their top starter.

Just how high a price Reds GM Nick Krall is asking for Castillo remains to be seen, but any team that’s come calling will have expected it to be high. In what was actually one of his lesser statistical seasons, Castillo posted a 3.98 ERA (3.75 FIP) across 187 2/3 innings against a career ERA of 3.72 (3.76 FIP) in parts of five major league seasons — all of which were spent playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s also been remarkably durable, taking the ball at least 31 times in each of his full seasons (and 12 times in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).

Castillo also closed out the year in particularly impressive fashion, recovering from an ugly April/May showing to post a 2.73 ERA and 3.34 FIP over his final 135 1/3 frames. Combine that with an eminently reasonable $7.6MM projected salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and an additional year of club control, through the 2023 season, and it’s easy to see why the ask on Castillo would be sky-high.

The 32-year-old Gray, meanwhile, is plenty affordable in his own right. He hasn’t replicated the 2015 form that saw him finish third in AL Cy Young voting and may never reach that level again, but the right-hander has strongly bounced back from a poor showing with the Yankees that prompted his trade to Cincinnati.

In three years with the Reds, Gray carries a 3.49 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate that trounces the 20.9% mark he posted in his pre-Reds career. Last season’s 4.19 ERA was more solid than stellar, clearly, but Gray was also among the best in the game in terms of limiting hard contact. Most fielding-independent metrics feel he was quite a bit better than that baseline ERA indicates.

Mahle doesn’t carry the name value that his teammates do — but he’s developed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons. Through his past 227 2/3 frames at the MLB level, Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA with an impressive 28.1% strikeout rate against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Walks and home runs have both been issues at times in his career, but he posted solid marks in both categories over the past two seasons — and one would imagine that a move away from Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park could also have a beneficial impact on his home-run rate.

Swartz projects a $5.6MM salary for Mahle, so any team acquiring him would have to figure it’s picking up two years of Mahle for under a total of $15MM in salary. There’s quite a bit of surplus value there, making Mahle a more enticing trade option than most would expect. Mahle turned 27 at the end of September, so he’ll pitch nearly all of the 2022 season at that age. Teams will likely view him as a pitcher whose stock is on the rise, and some may even have designs on extending him after a trade, given his age and recent strides.

Justin Mason’s 2022 Starting Pitcher Ranks: 11/29/21

Justin Mason — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 12:15:32 +0000

2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/ Justin Mason’s 2022 Starting Pitcher Ranks Rank PlayerName Team POS ADP...

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Sixto Sanchez “100 Percent,” Ready To Pitch In 2022

James Hicks — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 11:57:42 +0000

In an interview posted to the team’s Youtube channel, promising Marlins righty Sixto Sanchez told Marlins broadcaster Kyle Sielaff that he feels “100 percent” roughly four months after undergoing surgery to repair a capsular tear in his right shoulder, which ended his 2021 season before he’d thrown a pitch. This will come as welcome news to Marlins fans, who saw in 2020 the electric stuff that made Sanchez a consensus top prospect ahead of his debut (and, despite the surgery, the current No. 41 per MLB Pipeline).

The centerpiece of the deal that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia ahead of the 2019 season, Sanchez turned in an excellent (if abbreviated) debut in 2020, posting a 3.46 ERA (3.50 FIP) in 39 innings across seven starts. He also started twice in the playoffs, holding the Cubs scoreless over 5 innings in the Wild Card round before getting knocked around by the Braves in the NLDS. He had been expected to slot in behind two other young (if more established) starters — Sandy Alcantara (whom the Marlins signed to a 5-year, $56MM extension yesterday) and Pablo Lopez — in 2021 before late-spring shoulder discomfort inaugurated a process of failed rehabilitation that ended in surgery. It’s unclear whether or not Sanchez has actually resumed throwing, but the Marlins have made it clear that they expect Sanchez to be ready for spring training.

Though his absence was clearly a disappointment to player and team alike, a return to form in 2022 could portend great things for the Marlins, who would suddenly have something of an embarrassment of riches in rotation. Beyond Alcantara (3.19 ERA in 205 2/3 innings), Lopez (3.07 ERA in 102 2/3 innings), and Sanchez, the Marlins feature 2021 All-Star and NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers (2.64 ERA in 133 innings), former Rule 5 selection Elieser Hernandez (4.18 ERA in 51 2/3 innings), and flamethrower Jesus Luzardo, who struggled to a 6.61 ERA across 95 1/3 innings between Oakland and Miami (the A’s traded him for Starling Marte at the deadline) but displayed flashes of brilliance.

The Marlins disappointed in 2021, following a surprise playoff run in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season by finishing 21.5 games out of first, but their abundance of high-end young pitching makes them a threat to turn things around quickly. The 2021 club never really settled on a lineup — only five players had 300 or more plate appearances — and the team ranked 27th in the majors with a wRC+ of 84. GM Kim Ng began to address this shortcoming yesterday, agreeing to terms with outfielder Avisail Garcia on a four-year, $53MM deal — the largest free agent contract handed out by the club in the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership era.

Still, while the Marlins feature a solid infield quartet (Jesus Aguilar, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miguel Rojas, and Brian Anderson), the outfield mix remains unsettled. None of Lewis Brinson, Jesus Sanchez, Bryan De La Cruz, or Monte Harrison has established himself as a productive big-league bat, and it isn’t clear who would start in two outfield spots were the season to start today. Whether or not Ng has more money to spend remains to be seen, but a further upgrade either in the outfield or at catcher could go quite a long way toward making the Marlins a surprise contender in 2022.

Pirates To Hire Radley Haddad As Major League Field Coordinator

James Hicks — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 10:14:22 +0000

Per a report from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates are slated to hire former Yankees farmhand Radley Haddad as their Major League Field Coordinator, a wide-ranging role that includes game-planning, practice design, workload management, and liaising between team staff members. You can read Mackey’s account of the job here.

The move should complete manager Derek Shelton’s 2022 staff. Haddad will replace Mike Rabelo, who will shift to a new role as the Pirates’ third base coach in 2022, where he’ll take over for the departed Joey Cora. The Pirates also hired former Brewers hitting coach Andy Haines to take over the position left vacant when the Bucs parted ways with former hitting coach Rick Eckstein in August.

After going undrafted following his senior year at Butler, Haddad caught on with the Yankees, eventually logging two plate appearances at Double-A Trenton in 2016. A glove-first catcher, the native of Carmel, Indiana posted a combined .203/.300/.262 line in 313 plate appearances across four minor-league seasons. He retired in the spring of 2017, when he accepted an offer to become a bullpen catcher and coaching assistant with the big-league club (reporting by Dana Hunsinger Benbow of the Indianapolis Star).

Now 31, Haddad will take on more responsibility in Pittsburgh. Though the Pirates are not expected to contend in 2022 after finishing 34 games behind the first-place Brewers in 2021, they do have an elite farm system headed by catcher Henry Davis, the first overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Tigers Expected To Non-Tender Matthew Boyd

James Hicks — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 08:40:49 +0000

The Tigers are not expected to tender a contract to veteran starter Matthew Boyd, per a report from Chris McCosky of Detroit News. Boyd, who’s pitched for the Tigers in each of the last seven seasons and twice taken the ball on Opening Day, will become a free agent once the decision is made official.

Since arriving from the Blue Jays at the 2015 trade deadline as part of a package that sent David Price to Toronto, Boyd has been a roughly league-average starter (95 ERA+ since 2016), serving as a fairly steady innings-eater before spikes in his walk and home run rates saw him post his worst numbers since his rookie season in the small sample of the 2020 season. He actually posted a career-best 3.89 ERA (4.10 FIP) in 2021, but a June triceps strain landed him on the IL for more than two months before a September forearm injury ended his season after 78 2/3 innings.

For his career, the lefty sports a 4.96 ERA (4.69 FIP) across 784 1/3 big-league innings. Entering his age-31 season in 2022, he’ll most likely look to catch on with a team in search of a veteran back-end rotation arm. Given his recent injury history, it’s possible some teams might see Boyd as a reliever, though 145 of his 149 career games have been starts, and he hasn’t appeared in relief since 2017.

Boyd should be a safe bet for a major league deal, though he’s unlikely to match the $6.5MM salary he received in 2021. MLBTR projected that Detroit would have been on the hook for $7.3MM had they tendered Boyd a contract for his fourth and final year of arbitration eligibility. With the near-certainty of the Dec. 2 lockout deadline approaching, the southpaw will have very little time to catch on with a new team before transactions stop.

The Tigers face a handful of non-tender decisions beyond Boyd. McCosky mentions 2018 All-Star Joe Jimenez (slated to make $1.8MM according to MLBTR projections) and the aging but serviceable Jose Cisnero (projected at $1.9MM), both of whom have some upside; Jimenez has swing-and-miss stuff but has struggled with command (his BB% spiked to 16.7% in 2021), while Cisnero has had considerably more success over the last two seasons despite also sporting an above-average walk rate. Still, neither of these salaries would have nearly the impact on the bottom line as Boyd’s.

Of course, the financial impact of the Tigers’ non-tender decisions pales in comparison to their expected commitments on the free agent market. Since signing Eduardo Rodriguez to a market-setting five-year, $77MM deal in mid-November, the Tigers have been linked many of the biggest names on the market, including Carlos Correa (MLBTR link), Marcus Semien (link; since reached an agreement with the Rangers), Javier Baez (link), and Robbie Ray (link).

Whether or not the Tigers add an additional starter in free agency, their rotation figures to be a strength in 2022, with Rodriguez and veteran Spencer Turnbull anchoring a rotation that also features a cast of high-upside young arms in Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning.

Canha Met Brother Get A Marte-F’in Break?

Grey — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 08:00:46 +0000

Welp, we were supposed to start our fantasy baseball sleepers today, but there was some movement before the lockout. *looks in the toilet* "Hey, we got movement!" By the way, for those of you who didn't hear my thoughts on the impending lockout, you can listen to the last episode of our fantasy baseball podcast. Basically, I expect them to go to their separate corners. Owners will cry poor; players will cry that the owners are crying poor, which will be accurate, and then they'll come back. My guess is we lose about a week of the season and gain the NL DH. It will seem dire, because a lot of reporters are on team payrolls and they're paid to make it seem dire. It won't be as dire as it seems, unless we get to May and still no baseball. Bright side of that would be Acuña will be ready for Opening Day. Lowercase yay! Any hoo! We'll start the sleepers as soon as teams stop signing big free agents -- we (I) did start my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon, by the by. The Mets went out and got Mark Canha and Starling Marte, as they remade their outfield. The A’s did their best to change their culture, club wasn't working around players like Canha and Kaprelian but those windows of opportunity come and go. They come and go. Boy, Jorge Soler would fit nicely there. The best thing about the addition of Mark Canha and Starling Marte is they push Dominic Smith and Jeff McNeil to the bench-slash-platoon-Slash-Axl. Remember when there were people who thought some random 60-game stretch of Dom Smith meant he was good? Haha, those people were almost as dumb as the people who drafted Cody Bellinger last year. Hey, wait, that's me! Jeff McNeil actually pulled the wool over our eyes in a full season, but he was never really good either. On a related note, the Mets cornered the market on Micks who hit weak grounders. Between McCann and McNeil, they hit about as hard as the IRA, if the Irish Republican Army was modeled after everything they read about IRAs on Charles Schwab. Any hoo! Canha should fit perfectly in with the Mets, because Mets' fans need a good sense of humor so Canha helps. Can't really be a laughingstock without a Starling ability to Canha. Canha's 20.5% strikeout rate with a .231 average is a little bit of a concern. Couple that with his .274 and solid speed paints a picture of a guy who makes weak contact. McCann, McNeil and now M.C. are gonna bloop other teams to death. Seriously, Canha's peripherals indicate some pretty weak contact, and backing that up was the 35th worst Hard Contact% in the league. His Launch Angle came down a little, which was prolly better for him, as it led to a few less weak fly balls, even if they're more like weak bloopers to the 2nd baseman. For 2022, I'll give Mark Canha projections of 73/21/64/.239/10 in 571 ABs. That was the longest Mark Canha breakdown ever, because it was really just a giant stall for me, before tackling Starling Marte. A 33-year-old who just matched his career high at 47 steals. That's not even taking into account the very real evil eye the universe gives to all players who sign with the Mets. Ugh. I promised myself that I wouldn't be an ageist anymore. I wouldn't write off players just because they're old, but I sorted by all the players who were 33 years old who stole 47 bags or more, and there were 21 seasons of them since 1914 with 13 players. Seven of those were Lou Brock and Rickey Henderson. Guess what I'm saying is, after much deliberation about not worrying about a player's age in regards to steals, I am still doing exactly that. Marte also had a .372 BABIP. It's too simplistic to say the Mets just got had. Not as simplistic as saying a guy is old and his BABIP was high, but do you see why I was stalling? In the end, here's the thing, there's so many players to choose from, that you don't have to be right or wrong on some guys, you can just ignore them, and that's what I think I'm gonna be doing with Starling Marte. As far as his lineup slot, I will say the Mets have more number twos than a public toilet. If I were the Mets manager, and the Mets had a manager, I'd start the lineup Marte, Canha, Lindor, Alonso, but where are you finding Nimmo a spot? Maybe a trade with Miami, since he's a fish at heart. For 2022, I'll give Starling Marte projections of 89/19/61/.277/32 in 534 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2022 fantasy baseball:

Twins, Tigers, Giants Interested In Robbie Ray

Mark Polishuk — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 06:52:35 +0000

As free agent pitchers continue to fly off the board, AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray remains unsigned, though he is still drawing plenty of attention. The Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays have been previously linked to Ray on the rumor mill, and The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) also lists the Twins, Tigers, and Giants as among the clubs with interest in the left-hander. In addition, Sherman says to “keep an eye” on the Rangers, which isn’t surprising given how much Texas has already splurged on free agent talent, including another top pitcher in Jon Gray.

Of the new teams in the hunt for Ray, it isn’t surprising to see Detroit and San Francisco listed, as both clubs have already been looking for pitching and been aggressive with some early signings. The Tigers agreed to sign Eduardo Rodriguez for five years and $77MM, while the Giants re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and were reportedly close to also retaining another familiar face in Alex Wood.

While Ray would obviously be a huge help to either team, the argument can be made that San Francisco has the bigger need. Just about all of the Giants’ 2021 rotation was eligible for free agency, and leaving plenty of holes to be filled around Logan Webb. DeSclafani’s return filled one gap and Wood would fill another if he also re-signed, though Kevin Gausman left the Giants to instead sign a five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays. If there is a silver lining to Gausman’s departure, it could be that Toronto would seemingly be less likely to re-sign Ray, removing some competition from the Giants’ pursuit.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have a somewhat fuller rotation in E-Rod, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal all lined up for starting jobs, though the latter trio are is long on promise but still short on experience at the Major League level. Adding a proven veteran star like Ray makes that rotation much stronger, and also provides a full-circle moment since Ray formerly pitched for the Tigers during his 2014 rookie season. Detroit acquired Ray from the Nationals for Doug Fister in December 2013, and then flipped him to the Diamondbacks a year later as part of a three-team swap with the Yankees.

Perhaps the bigger obstacle for a Motor City reunion might be the draft pick compensation attached to Ray for rejecting the Jays’ qualifying offer, as Detroit already gave up a pick to sign Rodriguez (who also rejected a QO from the Red Sox). As a club who received revenue sharing in 2021, the Tigers’ penalty for Rodriguez was the loss of their third-highest selection, which will be either their second-round pick or their Competitive Balance Round pick, depending on which of the two CBRs the Tigers are drawn into this winter.

If the Tigers signed another QO-rejecting free agent like Ray, the Tigers would lose their fourth-highest selection in the 2022 draft. Since Detroit still seems to be considering Ray, it would appear that losing two draft picks isn’t out of the question for the club. The presence of the extra CBR selection does help ease the pain, and the Tigers have obviously built up a sturdy amount of young talent through their years of rebuilding.

Likewise, the Giants would also have to give up a draft pick for Ray. Since San Francisco isn’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021, the Giants would lose their second-highest pick and $500K from their international draft pool if they signed Ray or any other QO free agents. San Francisco issued a qualifying offer to one of its own free agents this winter, though Brandon Belt ended up accepting the one-year deal to return to the team.

Minnesota is perhaps the most interesting of the new teams in the mix. Like the Tigers, the Twins are a revenue-sharing recipient and also the holder of a Competitive Balance Round pick, which could mitigate the draft capital they’d lose to sign Ray. The Twins also have a strong need for front-of-the-rotation pitching, since Jose Berrios was dealt last summer, Michael Pineda is a free agent, and Kenta Maeda will very likely miss the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite these factors, signing Ray to something close to five years and $130MM (MLBTR’s projection for the lefty’s next deal) would represent the second-largest contract in the Twins’ franchise history, and the type of financial outlay that Minnesota has traditionally preferred to avoid. However, the Twins have been open to larger spending in other free agent pursuits in recent years, and swung such a notable deal with Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM pact in the 2019-20 offseason. Additionally, Minnesota just hit the nine-figure threshold by inking Byron Buxton to a seven-year extension that will be worth at least $100MM and perhaps significantly more if Buxton hits various incentive clauses.

Spending roughly $26MM on Ray in average annual value would boost the Twins’ 2022 payroll to around the $119MM mark, but considering the club finished the 2018 campaign spending around $131MM in player salaries, Minnesota would still have room to make other additions. Plus, Miguel Sano, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Duffey aren’t guaranteed beyond 2022, and Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players on the books beyond the 2023 season.

Corey Seager Expected To Sign On Monday?

Mark Polishuk — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 05:56:36 +0000

Free agent shortstop Corey Seager could be nearing his next contract, as The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports that there is a “belief” that Seager will sign on Monday. Seager was known to be leaning towards finding a new team before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, and interestingly, that same report indicated the same about another prominent Scott Boras client in Marcus Semien.

Just earlier today, Semien indeed did sign, inking a seven-year, $175MM agreement with the Rangers. Seager had also engaged in some talks with the Rangers, and both Sherman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal feel there is a distinct chance Seager may still land in Texas. Presumably, Seager and Semien would work as the Rangers’ new middle infield combination, though it would remain to be seen exactly where either of the duo would line up.

Seager has spent virtually all of his career at shortstop but his defensive numbers aren’t great, and there is a perception that Seager might be within a few years of moving to third base or perhaps even second base. Semien, meanwhile, is the better defensive shortstop of the two, though Semien spent 2021 playing as a second baseman with the Blue Jays while Bo Bichette manned the shortstop position. Texas also has some incumbents to consider, as top third base prospect Josh Jung is ready for his MLB debut, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa is an excellent defender at either shortstop or third base.

The fact that the Rangers can now even weigh all of these possibilities is indicative of the new doors opened by the team’s willingness to spend big this winter, as the Rangers are making a sharp turn towards contention after five straight losing seasons. Texas has already signed Semien, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun within the last 12 hours, so adding Seager would be just the latest addition to what has already been a frenzy of activity for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels.

Trevor Story is another one of the major free agent shortstops who had been linked to the Rangers, and Rosenthal seems to frame Story as something of a backup plan, noting that Story is “also possible if Rangers cannot get Seager.” The fact that Boras represents both Semien and Seager could make coordinating such a double-signing easier, though it isn’t as if Daniels and company have never had dealings with Story’s reps at Excel (Kolby Allard is an Excel client on the Texas roster, for instance).

While Boras has a reputation for waiting until deep into the offseason to find acceptable contracts for his free agent clients, Sherman notes that at the GM Meetings in early November, teams felt Boras would have deals lined up for Seager, Semien, and Max Scherzer before December 1 and what is expected to be a management lockout following the CBA’s expiration. Beyond Semien’s deal, Scherzer also seems to be nearing an agreement with the Mets, which perhaps increases the chances that Seager will also get his contract done in short order.

Beyond the Rangers, the Tigers, Dodgers, and Yankees are other teams who have been linked to Seager’s market, though New York is reportedly planning to wait until after the lockout and subsequent transactions freeze to pursue a shortstop, as the club would prefer a shorter-term commitment. If Scherzer does sign with the Mets, it could spur the Dodgers to make a bigger push for Seager so as to not lose both of their biggest in-house free agents. Semien’s departure from the market could also spur any of the teams also looking for shortstop or general infield help (such as the Phillies, Blue Jays, or Angels) to look closer at Seager.

Report: “Belief” That Corey Seager Will Sign Monday

Mark Polishuk — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 05:56:36 +0000

Mets Close To Signing Max Scherzer

Mark Polishuk — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 04:08:27 +0000

The Mets are nearing a multi-year contract with Max Scherzer, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (Twitter link). Based on multiple reports from earlier tonight, Scherzer may be on the verge of signing the largest average annual value deal in baseball history, as SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted that the Mets were offering more than $40MM in AAV. Scherzer is represented by the Boras Corporation.

More to come…

Mets May Be Favorite For Max Scherzer

Darragh McDonald — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 03:47:19 +0000

9:47PM: The Dodgers remain in the mix for Scherzer but are “not the favorites at the moment,” as per Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times. Indeed, there are “growing indications” that the Mets will sign Scherzer, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, with the New York Post’s Joel Sherman adding that Scherzer and the Mets have made progress towards an agreement.

8:47PM: The Mets have offered Scherzer a multi-year contract, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, that could be a three-year, $120MM pact.

7:16PM: The Mets’ offer to Scherzer has an average annual value of more than $40MM, according to Martino, but the length of the offer isn’t known. This would represent the largest AAV for any player in baseball history.

6:58PM: The Dodgers “are perceived as the favorite” to sign Scherzer, Heyman tweets. However, the “Mets’ full attention at [the] moment” is directed at Scherzer. If Scherzer does sign elsewhere, New York will likely turn its attention towards Gausman as the backup plan. SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets hope to have either Scherzer or Gausman signed within the next 24 hours.

11:54AM: Max Scherzer is expected to make a decision about where to play next year before the impending lockout, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Heyman lists the Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Mets as some of the teams that are under consideration.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA expires at 11:59 pm ET on December 1, with the general expectation being that a lockout and transaction freeze will then be implemented if no new deal is in place at that time. That has led to a flurry of activity in recent weeks, as many teams, agents and players seemingly prefer to get their business done now as opposed to waiting until some undetermined date when the lockout is finished. It would appear that Scherzer is in that camp.

The starting pitching market has easily been the busiest so far this year, as Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Verlander, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha have all signed in the past two weeks, with Corey Kluber also signing today. Kevin Gausman is also reportedly planning on signing in the coming days.

Scherzer’s free agency is a very unique case, given his elite skill level and relatively older age, compared to the other top names on the free agent market. Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, the only two hurlers ahead of Scherzer on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents, are both currently 30 years old, whereas Scherzer turned 37 in July. But given his tremendous track record of success in his career, his prediction was for a much higher salary on an annual basis, $120MM over three years, AAV of $40MM. That would be a new high for AAV across the league, breaking Gerrit Cole’s record of $36MM. Gausman and Ray, on the other hand, were predicted to get to the vicinity of $25MM annually, but each over a longer term than Scherzer.

Scherzer already has an incredible career resume, with 14 seasons of quality work, including eight All-Star appearances, three Cy Young Awards, a World Series championship and various other accolades. In 2021, he logged 179 1/3 innings between the Nationals and Dodgers. His 2.46 ERA was the lowest of his career. His 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than league average. In short, he would be a huge upgrade for any team in the league. But if he’s going to cost around $40MM per year, budgetary concerns will make him a better fit on some teams than others.

The Mets have already been throwing lots of money around, as they recently signed Mark Canha, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar. That spending spree has pushed their 2022 payroll to $225MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s already well beyond last year’s opening day payroll of $195MM, which was itself a franchise high, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. To add someone like Scherzer would require pushing their previous boundaries even further.

The Angels also ran a franchise-high payroll on opening day last year, getting up to almost $182MM, per Cot’s. For 2022, they’re currently sitting at $157MM, per Martinez, about $25MM shy of last year. Adding Scherzer would likely involve blowing past that number, as well as changing their previous avoidance of giving out contracts of any kind of length to starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, they haven’t given a starting pitcher a deal longer than one year since Joe Blanton way back in 2012, and even that was just two years.

The Giants have lots of payroll space, but also lots of holes to fill. Cot’s pegs their 2021 opening day number just shy of $150MM, but they’ve been as high as $200MM before, in 2018. They’re currently sitting around $115MM for next year, per Martinez, but still have many areas of need. Their rotation lost four members from 2021, and though they’ve since re-signed Anthony DeSclafani, they still need to replace Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto. (It was reported a week ago that Wood was close to deal to return, though it doesn’t seem to have been finalized yet.) They could also use a right-handed outfielder, having already been connected to Starling Marte and Seiya Suzuki. It seems more likely that they would spread their budget around to multiple arms, but if they want to make a run at a huge name like Scherzer, they have a payroll situation that could make it doable.

As for the Dodgers, whom acquired Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, their opening day payroll in 2021 was almost $248MM, per Cot’s, easily the highest such number in the league. They’re currently sitting over $205MM for next year, according to Martinez, and could welcome Scherzer back into the fold if they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year.

Rangers To Sign Kole Calhoun

Mark Polishuk — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 03:11:03 +0000

9:11PM: Calhoun receives a one-year, $5.2MM contract, as per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Texas also has a club option on Calhoun for the 2023 season.

5:00PM: The Rangers have agreed to a deal with outfielder Kole Calhoun, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). Calhoun is represented by PSI Sports Management.

Calhoun hit the open market after the Diamondbacks declined their $9MM club option following the season, instead paying him a $2MM buyout. Calhoun originally signed a two-year, $16MM deal with Arizona in the 2019-20 offseason and hit a strong .226/.338/.526 with 16 home runs over 228 plate appearances in 2020 before battling injuries this past year. Calhoun underwent surgeries on both his right knee and left hamstring, with that hamstring leading to another injured list stint late in the 2021 season. All told, Calhoun had only 182 PA in 2021, and he batted just .235/.297/.373.

The 34-year-old will now get a chance to bounce back in Arlington, returning to the AL West after playing with the Angels from 2012-19. Calhoun has long been a very solid defensive right fielder, and since breakout star Adolis Garcia acquitted himself pretty well defensively in part-time action in center field last year, Texas might opt to give Garcia more time in center with Calhoun taking over the bulk of right field duty.

Considering how Calhoun struggled in 2021, however, the Rangers might well see Calhoun as more of a part-time or platoon option rather than an everyday regular in the outfield. Since Texas clearly has some major spending in mind this winter (as evidenced by today’s agreement with Marcus Semien), we also shouldn’t rule out more additions to the outfield mix. For now, at least, Calhoun will join Garcia as a starter in the 2022 outfield.

Angels To Sign Michael Lorenzen

Mark Polishuk — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 03:06:15 +0000

The Angels and right-hander Michael Lorenzen have agreed to a one-year deal worth roughly $7MM, as per FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). Lorenzen is a client of CAA Sports.

More to come….

Marlins Agree To Extension With Sandy Alcantara

Steve Adams — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 03:00:40 +0000

TODAY: The two sides have reached an agreement on a five-year, $56MM extension, according to Craig Mish (via Twitter). The contract will become official when Alcantara passes a physical.

NOVEMBER 22: The Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara are closing in on a five-year contract extension that would guarantee the CAA Sports client more than $55MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link).

Alcantara, 26, has been in extension talks for months — dating back to July when reports of negotiations first surfaced. While the Marlins’ first overtures were said to be low enough that Alcantara’s camp considered them a nonstarter, a $55MM+ guarantee would be a record extension for a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time, topping the previous highwater mark set by Carlos Martinez in Feb. 2017 (five years, $51MM).

Acquired from the Cardinals alongside Zac Gallen in the 2017 trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, Alcantara has steadily improved over the course of his four seasons in Miami. He’s always been a hard-throwing sinker specialist, but his strikeout and walk rates early in his career were pedestrian, to say the least. Alcantara racked up 197 innings with the Fish in 2019, but he looked more like a potential innings-eater than a star at that point. Fast forward to 2021, however, and Alcantara looks more like a building block than that stable No. 4 starter he was in ’19.

This past season, Alcantara finished fourth in MLB with 205 2/3 innings thrown, averaged 98.1 mph on his heater and posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (24.0%), walk rate (6.0%) and ground-ball rate (55.3%). All three are vastly better than the league average, so it’s little surprise that Alcantara’s 3.19 ERA was largely supported by fielding-independent marks. This year’s 13.3% swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high, and Alcantara’s gaudy 36.7% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranked third among qualified starters. Alcantara also thrives when it comes to inducing weak contact and ranks above the league average in Statcast’s “expected” ERA, batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

Alcantara had been set for his first trip through the arbitration process this winter and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM. He’d have been arb-eligible twice more, securing a pair of additional raises in the process. The proposed deal would buy out two arbitration seasons and, depending on how bullishly one cares to project Alcantara’s would-be raises in years two and three of arbitration, places a value of around $14-15MM per season on those two free-agent campaigns. That, of course, still represents a bargain for Alcantara if he can replicate his 2021 breakout, but that type of tradeoff is commonplace for players signing extensions well before they’d otherwise reach the open market.

The $11MM annual value — a figure which, as with many extensions, is skewed by the arbitration seasons included in the deal — is significant for a typically low-payroll Marlins club. However, Miami doesn’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books after the 2023 season, and second-year GM Kim Ng has been vocal in her desire to spend more money this offseason. Much of that is expected to come via free agency, but locking up one of their current stars to keep him in the fold beyond his previously allotted team control certainly speaks to that increased financial wherewithal as well.

Miami has reportedly considered trading from its impressive collection of young starting pitchers as the organization eyes long-term options both in the outfield and behind the plate. That said, Alcantara would always have been one of the toughest Marlins starters to obtain — if not the toughest — and a five-year extension would further diminish the already slim chances of him being dealt. The Fish could still dangle any combination of Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo, while near-MLB prospects like Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera (among many others) would surely carry very strong trade value. Injured youngsters like Sixto Sanchez (shoulder capsule surgery) and Jake Eder (Tommy John surgery) are appealing in their own right — health concerns notwithstanding.

With such a bounty of young arms, the Marlins obviously could have weathered the hit of trading Alcantara, but today’s extension instead likely portends a long-term rotation headed by Alcantara and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers. Who’ll fill the spots behind that dynamic pairing is dependent on how the offseason trade market unfolds, but the Fish are well-positioned to continue making strides thanks largely to that near-unparalleled collection of pitching talent.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.